Aims. The aim of this study was to describe the demographic details of patients who sustain a femoral periprosthetic fracture (PPF), the epidemiology of PPFs, PPF characteristics, and the predictors of PPF types in the UK population. Methods. This is a multicentre retrospective cohort study including adult patients presenting to hospital with a new PPF between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018. Data collected included: patient characteristics, comorbidities, anticoagulant use, social circumstances, level of mobility, fracture characteristics, Unified Classification System (UCS) type, and details of the original implant. Descriptive analysis by fracture location was performed, and predictors of PPF type were assessed using mixed-effects logistic regression models. Results. In total, 720 femoral PPFs from 27 NHS sites were included. PPF patients were typically elderly (mean 79.9 years (SD 10.6)), female (n = 455; 63.2%), had at least one comorbidity (n = 670; 93.1%), and were reliant on walking aids or bed-/chair-bound prior to admission (n = 419; 61.7%). The study population included 539 (74.9%) hip PPFs, 151 (21.0%) knee PPFs, and 30 (4.2%) dividing type PPFs. For hip (n = 407; 75.5%) and knee (n = 88; 58.3%) arthroplasty UCS B type fractures were most common. Overall, 556 (86.2%) were treated in the presenting hospital and 89 (13.8%) required transfer for treatment. Female sex was the only significant predictor of fracture type (A/B1/C type versus B2/B3) for femoral hip PPFs (odds ratio 0.61 (95% confidence interval 0.41 to 0.91); p = 0.014). Sex, residence type, primary versus revision implant PPF, implant fixation, and time between arthroplasty and PPF were not found to predict fracture type for hip PPFs. Conclusion. This multicentre analysis describes patient and injury factors for patients presenting with femoral PPFs to centres across the UK. These patients are generally elderly and frail, comparable to those sustaining a hip fracture. These data can be useful in planning future services and clinical trials. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(8):987–996

Aims. The diagnosis of periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) continues to present a significant clinical challenge. New biomarkers have been proposed to support clinical decision-making; among them, synovial fluid alpha-defensin has gained interest. Current research methodology suggests reference methods are needed to establish solid evidence for use of the test. This prospective study aims to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of high-performance liquid chromatography coupled with the mass spectrometry (LC-MS) method to detect alpha-defensin in synovial fluid. Methods. Between October 2017 and September 2019, we collected synovial fluid samples from patients scheduled to undergo revision surgery for painful total knee arthroplasty (TKA). The International Consensus Meeting criteria were used to classify 33 PJIs and 92 aseptic joints. LC-MS assay was performed to measure alpha-defensin in synovial fluid of all included patients. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were calculated to define the test diagnostic accuracy. Results. The AUC was 0.99 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.98 to 1.00). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis showed that the optimal cut-off value of synovial fluid alpha-defensin was 1.0 μg/l. The sensitivity of alpha-defensin was 100% (95% CI 96 to 100), the specificity was 97% (95% CI 90 to 98), the positive predictive value was 89.2% (95% CI 82 to 94), and negative predictive value was 100% (95% CI 96 to 100). ROC analysis demonstrated an AUC of 0.99 (95% CI 0.98 to 1.0). Conclusion. The present study confirms the utility of alpha-defensin in the synovial fluid in patients with painful TKA to select cases of PJI. Since LC-MS is still a time-consuming technology and is available in highly specialized laboratories, further translational research studies are needed to take this evidence into routine procedures and promote a new diagnostic approach. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(9):1047–1051

Aims. The early diagnosis of cauda equina syndrome (CES) is crucial for a favourable outcome. Several studies have reported the use of an ultrasound scan of the bladder as an adjunct to assess the minimum post-void residual volume of urine (mPVR). However, variable mPVR values have been proposed as a threshold without consensus on a value for predicting CES among patients with relevant symptoms and signs. The aim of this study was to perform a meta-analysis and systematic review of the published evidence to identify a threshold mPVR value which would provide the highest diagnostic accuracy in patients in whom the diagnosis of CES is suspected. Methods. The search strategy used electronic databases (PubMed, Medline, EMBASE, and AMED) for publications between January 1996 and November 2021. All studies that reported mPVR in patients in whom the diagnosis of CES was suspected, followed by MRI, were included. Results. A total of 2,115 studies were retrieved from the search. Seven fulfilled the inclusion criteria. These included 1,083 patients, with data available from 734 being available for meta-analysis. In 125 patients, CES was confirmed by MRI. The threshold value of mPVR reported in each study varied and could be categorized into 100 ml, 200 ml, 300 ml, and 500 ml. From the meta-analysis, 200 ml had the highest diagnostic accuracy, with 82% sensitivity (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.72 to 0.90) and 65% specificity (95% CI 0.70 to 0.90). When compared using summative receiver operating characteristic curves, mPVR of 200 ml was superior to other values in predicting the radiological confirmation of CES. Conclusion. mPVR is a useful tool when assessing patients in whom the diagnosis of CES is suspected. Compared with other values a mPVR of 200 ml had superior sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values. In a patient with a suggestive history and clinical findings, a mPVR of > 200 ml should further raise the suspicion of CES. Caution is recommended when considering the mPVR in isolation and using it as an ‘exclusion tool’, and it should only be used as an adjunct to a full clinical assessment. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(5):487–495

Aims. Historically, patients undergoing surgery for adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) have been nursed postoperatively in a critical care (CC) setting because of the challenges posed by prone positioning, extensive exposures, prolonged operating times, significant blood loss, major intraoperative fluid shifts, cardiopulmonary complications, and difficulty in postoperative pain management. The primary aim of this paper was to determine whether a scoring system, which uses Cobb angle, forced vital capacity (FVC), forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1), and number of levels to be fused, is a valid method of predicting the need for postoperative critical care in AIS patients who are to undergo scoliosis correction with posterior spinal fusion (PSF). Methods. We retrospectively reviewed all AIS patients who had undergone PSF between January 2018 and January 2020 in a specialist tertiary spinal referral centre. All patients were assessed preoperatively in an anaesthetic clinic. Postoperative care was defined as ward-based (WB) or critical care (CC), based on the preoperative FEV1, FVC, major curve Cobb angle, and the planned number of instrumented levels. Results. Overall, 105 patients were enrolled. Their mean age was 15.5 years (11 to 25) with a mean weight of 55 kg (35 to 103). The mean Cobb angle was 68° (38° to 122°). Of these, 38 patients were preoperatively scored to receive postoperative CC. However, only 19% of the cohort (20/105) actually needed CC-level support. Based on these figures, and an average paediatric intensive care unit stay of one day before stepdown to ward-based care, the potential cost-saving on the first postoperative night for this cohort was over £20,000. There was no statistically significant difference between the Total Pathway Score (TPS), the numerical representation of the four factors being assessed, and the actual level of care received (p = 0.052) or the American Society of Anesthesiologists grade (p = 0.187). Binary logistic regression analysis of the TPS variables showed that the preoperative Cobb angle was the only variable which significantly predicted the need for critical care. Conclusion. Most patients undergoing posterior fusion surgery for AIS do not need critical care. Of the readily available preoperative measures, the Cobb angle is the only predictor of the need for higher levels of care, and has a threshold value of 74.5°. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(7):713–719

Aims. Radiological residual acetabular dysplasia (RAD) has been reported in up to 30% of children who had successful brace treatment of infant developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH). Predicting those who will resolve and those who may need corrective surgery is important to optimize follow-up protocols. In this study we have aimed to identify the prevalence and predictors of RAD at two years and five years post-bracing. Methods. This was a single-centre, prospective longitudinal cohort study of infants with DDH managed using a published, standardized Pavlik harness protocol between January 2012 and December 2016. RAD was measured at two years’ mean follow-up using acetabular index-lateral edge (AI-L) and acetabular index-sourcil (AI-S), and at five years using AI-L, AI-S, centre-edge angle (CEA), and acetabular depth ratio (ADR). Each hip was classified based on published normative values for normal, borderline (1 to 2 standard deviations (SDs)), or dysplastic (> 2 SDs) based on sex, age, and laterality. Results. Of 202 infants who completed the protocol, 181 (90%) had two and five years’ follow-up radiographs. At two years, in 304 initially pathological hips, the prevalence of RAD (dysplastic) was 10% and RAD (borderline) was 30%. At five years, RAD (dysplastic) decreased to 1% to 3% and RAD (borderline) decreased to < 1% to 2%. On logistic regression, no variables were predictive of RAD at two years. Only AI-L at two years was predictive of RAD at five years (p < 0.001). If both hips were normal at two years’ follow-up (n = 96), all remained normal at five years. In those with bilateral borderline hips at two years (n = 21), only two were borderline at five years, none were dysplastic. In those with either borderline-dysplastic or bilateral dysplasia at two years (n = 26), three (12%) were dysplastic at five years. Conclusion. The majority of patients with RAD at two years post-brace treatment, spontaneously resolved by five years. Therefore, children with normal radiographs at two years post-brace treatment can be discharged. Targeted follow-up for those with abnormal AI-L at two years will identify the few who may benefit from surgical correction at five years’ follow-up. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(7):744–750

Aims. Current levels of hip fracture morbidity contribute greatly to the overall burden on health and social care services. Given the anticipated ageing of the population over the coming decade, there is potential for this burden to increase further, although the exact scale of impact has not been identified in contemporary literature. We therefore set out to predict the future incidence of hip fracture and help inform appropriate service provision to maintain an adequate standard of care. Methods. Historical data from the Scottish Hip Fracture Audit (2017 to 2021) were used to identify monthly incidence rates. Established time series forecasting techniques (Exponential Smoothing and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) were then used to predict the annual number of hip fractures from 2022 to 2029, including adjustment for predicted changes in national population demographics. Predicted differences in service-level outcomes (length of stay and discharge destination) were analyzed, including the associated financial cost of any changes. Results. Between 2017 and 2021, the number of annual hip fractures increased from 6,675 to 7,797 (15%), with a rise in incidence from 313 to 350 per 100,000 (11%) for the at-risk population. By 2029, a combined average projection forecast the annual number of hip fractures at 10,311, with an incidence rate of 463 per 100,000, representing a 32% increase from 2021. Based upon these projections, assuming discharge rates remain constant, the total overall length of hospital stay following hip fracture in Scotland will increase by 60,699 days per annum, incurring an additional cost of at least £25 million per year. Approximately five more acute hip fracture beds may be required per hospital to accommodate this increased activity. Conclusion. Projection modelling demonstrates that hip fracture burden and incidence will increase substantially by 2029, driven by an ageing population, with substantial implications for health and social care services. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(1):62–68

The June 2024 Hip & Pelvis Roundup. 360. looks at: Machine learning did not outperform conventional competing risk modelling to predict revision arthroplasty; Unravelling the risks: incidence and reoperation rates for femoral fractures post-total hip arthroplasty; Spinal versus general anaesthesia for hip arthroscopy: a COVID-19 pandemic- and opioid epidemic-driven study; Development and validation of a deep-learning model to predict total hip arthroplasty on radiographs; Ambulatory centres lead in same-day hip and knee arthroplasty success; Exploring the impact of smokeless tobacco on total hip arthroplasty outcomes: a deeper dive into postoperative complications

Aims. The aim of this study was to describe the management and associated outcomes of patients sustaining a femoral hip periprosthetic fracture (PPF) in the UK population. Methods. This was a multicentre retrospective cohort study including adult patients who presented to 27 NHS hospitals with 539 new PPFs between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018. Data collected included: management strategy (operative and nonoperative), length of stay, discharge destination, and details of post-treatment outcomes (reoperation, readmission, and 30-day and 12-month mortality). Descriptive analysis by fracture type was performed, and predictors of PPF management and outcomes were assessed using mixed-effects logistic regression. Results. In all, 417 fractures (77%) were managed operatively and 122 (23%) conservatively. The median time to surgery was four days (interquartile range (IQR) 2 to 7). Of those undergoing surgery, 246 (59%) underwent revision and/or fixation and 169 (41%) fixation alone. The surgical strategy used differed by Unified Classification System for PPF type, with the highest rate of revision in B2/B3 fractures (both 77%, 176/228 and 24/31, respectively) and the highest rate of fixation alone in B1- (55/78; 71%) and C-type (49/65; 75%) fractures. Cemented stem fixation (odds ratio (OR) 2.66 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.42 to 4.99); p = 0.002) and B2/B3 fracture type (OR 7.56 (95% CI 4.14 to 13.78); p < 0.001) were predictors of operative management. The median length of stay was 15 days (IQR 9 to 23), 12-month reoperation rate was 5.6% (n = 30), and 30-day readmission rate was 8.4% (n = 45). The 30-day and 12-month mortality rates were 5.2% (n = 28) and 21.0% (n = 113). Nonoperative treatment, older age, male sex, admission from residential or nursing care, and sustaining the PPF around a revision prosthesis were significant predictors of an increased 12-month mortality. Conclusion. Femoral hip PPFs have mortality, reoperation, and readmission rates comparable with hip fracture patients. However, they have a longer wait for surgery, and surgical treatment is more complex. There is a need to create a national framework for data collection for this heterogeneous group of patients in order to understand the outcomes of different approaches to treatment. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(8):997–1008

The August 2023 Shoulder & Elbow Roundup360 looks at: Motor control or strengthening exercises for rotator cuff-related shoulder pain? A multi-arm randomized controlled trial; Does the choice of antibiotic prophylaxis influence reoperation rate in primary shoulder arthroplasty?; Common shoulder injuries in sport: grading the evidence; The use of medial support screw was associated with axillary nerve injury after plate fixation of proximal humeral fracture using a minimally invasive deltoid-splitting approach; MRI predicts outcomes of conservative treatment in patients with lateral epicondylitis; Association between surgeon volume and patient outcomes after elective shoulder arthroplasty; Arthroscopic decompression of calcific tendinitis without cuff repair; Functional outcome after nonoperative management of minimally displaced greater tuberosity fractures and predictors of poorer patient experience

Aims. Disorders of bone integrity carry a high global disease burden, frequently requiring intervention, but there is a paucity of methods capable of noninvasive real-time assessment. Here we show that miniaturized handheld near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) scans, operated via a smartphone, can assess structural human bone properties in under three seconds. Methods. A hand-held NIR spectrometer was used to scan bone samples from 20 patients and predict: bone volume fraction (BV/TV); and trabecular (Tb) and cortical (Ct) thickness (Th), porosity (Po), and spacing (Sp). Results. NIRS scans on both the inner (trabecular) surface or outer (cortical) surface accurately identified variations in bone collagen, water, mineral, and fat content, which then accurately predicted bone volume fraction (BV/TV, inner R. 2. = 0.91, outer R. 2. = 0.83), thickness (Tb.Th, inner R. 2. = 0.9, outer R. 2. = 0.79), and cortical thickness (Ct.Th, inner and outer both R. 2. = 0.90). NIRS scans also had 100% classification accuracy in grading the quartile of bone thickness and quality. Conclusion. We believe this is a fundamental step forward in creating an instrument capable of intraoperative real-time use. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(4):250–261

Aims. Iliopsoas impingement occurs in 4% to 30% of patients after undergoing total hip arthroplasty (THA). Despite a relatively high incidence, there are few attempts at modelling impingement between the iliopsoas and acetabular component, and no attempts at modelling this in a representative cohort of subjects. The purpose of this study was to develop a novel computational model for quantifying the impingement between the iliopsoas and acetabular component and validate its utility in a case-controlled investigation. Methods. This was a retrospective cohort study of patients who underwent THA surgery that included 23 symptomatic patients diagnosed with iliopsoas tendonitis, and 23 patients not diagnosed with iliopsoas tendonitis. All patients received postoperative CT imaging, postoperative standing radiography, and had minimum six months’ follow-up. 3D models of each patient’s prosthetic and bony anatomy were generated, landmarked, and simulated in a novel iliopsoas impingement detection model in supine and standing pelvic positions. Logistic regression models were implemented to determine if the probability of pain could be significantly predicted. Receiver operating characteristic curves were generated to determine the model’s sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve (AUC). Results. Highly significant differences between the symptomatic and asymptomatic cohorts were observed for iliopsoas impingement. Logistic regression models determined that the impingement values significantly predicted the probability of groin pain. The simulation had a sensitivity of 74%, specificity of 100%, and an AUC of 0.86. Conclusion. We developed a computational model that can quantify iliopsoas impingement and verified its accuracy in a case-controlled investigation. This tool has the potential to be used preoperatively, to guide decisions about optimal cup placement, and postoperatively, to assist in the diagnosis of iliopsoas tendonitis. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(1):3–12

Aims. To develop prediction models using machine-learning (ML) algorithms for 90-day and one-year mortality prediction in femoral neck fracture (FNF) patients aged 50 years or older based on the Hip fracture Evaluation with Alternatives of Total Hip arthroplasty versus Hemiarthroplasty (HEALTH) and Fixation using Alternative Implants for the Treatment of Hip fractures (FAITH) trials. Methods. This study included 2,388 patients from the HEALTH and FAITH trials, with 90-day and one-year mortality proportions of 3.0% (71/2,388) and 6.4% (153/2,388), respectively. The mean age was 75.9 years (SD 10.8) and 65.9% of patients (1,574/2,388) were female. The algorithms included patient and injury characteristics. Six algorithms were developed, internally validated and evaluated across discrimination (c-statistic; discriminative ability between those with risk of mortality and those without), calibration (observed outcome compared to the predicted probability), and the Brier score (composite of discrimination and calibration). Results. The developed algorithms distinguished between patients at high and low risk for 90-day and one-year mortality. The penalized logistic regression algorithm had the best performance metrics for both 90-day (c-statistic 0.80, calibration slope 0.95, calibration intercept -0.06, and Brier score 0.039) and one-year (c-statistic 0.76, calibration slope 0.86, calibration intercept -0.20, and Brier score 0.074) mortality prediction in the hold-out set. Conclusion. Using high-quality data, the ML-based prediction models accurately predicted 90-day and one-year mortality in patients aged 50 years or older with a FNF. The final models must be externally validated to assess generalizability to other populations, and prospectively evaluated in the process of shared decision-making. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(3):168–181

Aims. Frailty greatly increases the risk of adverse outcome of trauma in older people. Frailty detection tools appear to be unsuitable for use in traumatically injured older patients. We therefore aimed to develop a method for detecting frailty in older people sustaining trauma using routinely collected clinical data. Methods. We analyzed prospectively collected registry data from 2,108 patients aged ≥ 65 years who were admitted to a single major trauma centre over five years (1 October 2015 to 31 July 2020). We divided the sample equally into two, creating derivation and validation samples. In the derivation sample, we performed univariate analyses followed by multivariate regression, starting with 27 clinical variables in the registry to predict Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS; range 1 to 9) scores. Bland-Altman analyses were performed in the validation cohort to evaluate any biases between the Nottingham Trauma Frailty Index (NTFI) and the CFS. Results. In the derivation cohort, five of the 27 variables were strongly predictive of the CFS (regression coefficient B = 6.383 (95% confidence interval 5.03 to 7.74), p < 0.001): age, Abbreviated Mental Test score, admission haemoglobin concentration (g/l), pre-admission mobility (needs assistance or not), and mechanism of injury (falls from standing height). In the validation cohort, there was strong agreement between the NTFI and the CFS (mean difference 0.02) with no apparent systematic bias. Conclusion. We have developed a clinically applicable tool using easily and routinely measured physiological and functional parameters, which clinicians and researchers can use to guide patient care and to stratify the analysis of quality improvement and research projects. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(4):412–418

Aims. The association of auraptene (AUR), a 7-geranyloxycoumarin, on osteoporosis and its potential pathway was predicted by network pharmacology and confirmed in experimental osteoporotic mice. Methods. The network of AUR was constructed and a potential pathway predicted by Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) pathway and Gene Ontology (GO) terms enrichment. Female ovariectomized (OVX) Institute of Cancer Research mice were intraperitoneally injected with 0.01, 0.1, and 1 mM AUR for four weeks. The bone mineral density (BMD) level was measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. The bone microstructure was determined by histomorphological changes in the femora. In addition, biochemical analysis of the serum and assessment of the messenger RNA (mRNA) levels of osteoclastic markers were performed. Results. In total, 65.93% of the genes of the AUR network matched with osteoporosis-related genes. Osteoclast differentiation was predicted to be a potential pathway of AUR in osteoporosis. Based on the network pharmacology, the BMD and bone mineral content levels were significantly (p < 0.05) increased in the whole body, femur, tibia, and lumbar spine by AUR. AUR normalized the bone microstructure and the serum alkaline phosphatase (ALP), bone-specific alkaline phosphatase (bALP), osteocalcin, and calcium in comparison with the OVX group. In addition, AUR treatment reduced TRAP-positive osteoclasts and receptor activator of nuclear factor kappa-B ligand (RANKL). +. nuclear factor of activated T cells 1 (NFATc1). +. expression in the femoral body. Moreover, the expressions of initiators for osteoclastic resorption and bone matrix degradation were significantly (p < 0.05) regulated by AUR in the lumbar spine of the osteoporotic mice. Conclusion. AUR ameliorated bone loss by downregulating the RANKL/NFATc1 pathway, resulting in improvement of osteoporosis. In conclusion, AUR might be an ameliorative cure that alleviates bone loss in osteoporosis via inhibition of osteoclastic activity. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2022;11(5):304–316

Aims. To investigate the optimal thresholds and diagnostic efficacy of commonly used serological and synovial fluid detection indexes for diagnosing periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) in patients who have rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Methods. The data from 348 patients who had RA or osteoarthritis (OA) and had previously undergone a total knee (TKA) and/or a total hip arthroplasty (THA) (including RA-PJI: 60 cases, RA-non-PJI: 80 cases; OA-PJI: 104 cases, OA-non-PJI: 104 cases) were retrospectively analyzed. A receiver operating characteristic curve was used to determine the optimal thresholds of the CRP, ESR, synovial fluid white blood cell count (WBC), and polymorphonuclear neutrophil percentage (PMN%) for diagnosing RA-PJI and OA-PJI. The diagnostic efficacy was evaluated by comparing the area under the curve (AUC) of each index and applying the results of the combined index diagnostic test. Results. For PJI prediction, the results of serological and synovial fluid indexes were different between the RA-PJI and OA-PJI groups. The optimal cutoff value of CRP for diagnosing RA-PJI was 12.5 mg/l, ESR was 39 mm/hour, synovial fluid WBC was 3,654/μl, and PMN% was 65.9%; and those of OA-PJI were 8.2 mg/l, 31 mm/hour, 2,673/μl, and 62.0%, respectively. In the RA-PJI group, the specificity (94.4%), positive predictive value (97.1%), and AUC (0.916) of synovial fluid WBC were higher than those of the other indexes. The optimal cutoff values of synovial fluid WBC and PMN% for diagnosing RA-PJI after THA were significantly higher than those of TKA. The specificity and positive predictive value of the combined index were 100%. Conclusion. Serum inflammatory and synovial fluid indexes can be used for diagnosing RA-PJI, for which synovial fluid WBC is the best detection index. Combining multiple detection indexes can provide a reference basis for the early and accurate diagnosis of RA-PJI. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2023;12(9):559–570

Aims. This study aimed to explore the diagnostic value of synovial fluid neutrophil extracellular traps (SF-NETs) in periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) diagnosis, and compare it with that of microbial culture, serum ESR and CRP, synovial white blood cell (WBC) count, and polymorphonuclear neutrophil percentage (PMN%). Methods. In a single health centre, patients with suspected PJI were enrolled from January 2013 to December 2021. The inclusion criteria were: 1) patients who were suspected to have PJI; 2) patients with complete medical records; and 3) patients from whom sufficient synovial fluid was obtained for microbial culture and NET test. Patients who received revision surgeries due to aseptic failure (AF) were selected as controls. Synovial fluid was collected for microbial culture and SF-WBC, SF-PNM%, and SF-NET detection. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) of synovial NET, WBC, PMN%, and area under the curve (AUC) were obtained; the diagnostic efficacies of these diagnostic indexes were calculated and compared. Results. The levels of SF-NETs in the PJI group were significantly higher than those of the AF group. The AUC of SF-NET was 0.971 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.903 to 0.996), the sensitivity was 93.48% (95% CI 82.10% to 98.63%), the specificity was 96.43% (95% CI 81.65% to 99.91%), the accuracy was 94.60% (95% CI 86.73% to 98.50%), the positive predictive value was 97.73%, and the negative predictive value was 90%. Further analysis showed that SF-NET could improve the diagnosis of culture-negative PJI, patients with PJI who received antibiotic treatment preoperatively, and fungal PJI. Conclusion. SF-NET is a novel and ideal synovial fluid biomarker for PJI diagnosis, which could improve PJI diagnosis greatly. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2023;12(2):113–120

Aims. This study aimed to describe practice variation in the use of total hip arthroplasty (THA) for older patients with femoral neck fracture and to determine the association between patient, surgeon, and institution factors and treatment with THA. Methods. We performed a cross-sectional analysis of 49,597 patients aged 60 years and older from Ontario, Canada, who underwent hemiarthroplasty or THA for femoral neck fracture between 2002 and 2017. This population-based study used routinely collected healthcare databases linked through ICES (formerly known as the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences). Multilevel logistic regression modelling was used to quantify the association between patient, surgeon, and institution-level variables and whether patients were treated with THA. Variance partition coefficient and median odds ratios were used to estimate the variation attributable to higher-level variables and the magnitude of effect of higher-level variables, respectively. Results. Over the study period, 9.4% of patients (n = 4,638) were treated with THA. Patient factors associated with higher likelihood of treatment by THA included: younger age, male sex, and diagnosis with rheumatoid arthritis. Long-term care residence, use of home care services prior to hip fracture, diagnosis of dementia, higher comorbidity burden, and the most marginalized group were negatively associated with treatment by THA. Treating surgeon and institution accounted for 54.2% and 17.8% of the total variation in treatment with THA, respectively. Surgeon volume of THA procedures in the 365 days prior to surgery was the strongest higher-level predictor of treatment with THA. Specific treating surgeons and institutions still accounted for significant proportions of the variability in treatment with THA (40.3% and 19.5% of total observed variation, respectively) after controlling for available patient, surgeon, and institution-level variables. Conclusion. The strongest predictors for treatment of patients with femoral neck fracture with THA were patient age, treating surgeon, and treating institution. This practice variation highlights differential access to care for patients. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(2):180–189

Aims. The purpose of this study was to assess the prevalence of depression and anxiety symptoms in patients undergoing shoulder surgery using the National Institutes of Health (NIH) Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS) Depression and Anxiety computer adaptive tests, and to determine the factors associated with more severe symptoms. Additionally, we sought to determine whether PROMIS Depression and Anxiety were associated with functional outcomes after shoulder surgery. Methods. This was a retrospective analysis of 293 patients from an urban population who underwent elective shoulder surgery from 2015 to 2018. Survey questionnaires included preoperative and two-year postoperative data. Bivariate analysis was used to identify associations and multivariable analysis was used to control for confounding variables. Results. Mean two-year PROMIS Depression and Anxiety scores significantly improved from preoperative scores, with a greater improvement observed in PROMIS Anxiety. Worse PROMIS Depression and Anxiety scores were also significantly correlated with worse PROMIS Physical Function (PF) and American Shoulder and Elbow Surgeons scores (ASES). After controlling for confounding variables, worse PROMIS Depression was an independent predictor of worse PROMIS PF, while worse PROMIS Anxiety was an independent predictor of worse PROMIS PF and ASES scores. Conclusion. Mean two-year PROMIS Depression and Anxiety scores improved after elective shoulder surgery and several patient characteristics were associated with these scores. Worse functional outcomes were associated with worse PROMIS Depression and Anxiety; however, more severe two-year PROMIS Anxiety was the strongest predictor of worse functional outcomes. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(4):479–485

Aims. The aim of this study was to develop and internally validate a prognostic nomogram to predict the probability of gaining a functional range of motion (ROM ≥ 120°) after open arthrolysis of the elbow in patients with post-traumatic stiffness of the elbow. Methods. We developed the Shanghai Prediction Model for Elbow Stiffness Surgical Outcome (SPESSO) based on a dataset of 551 patients who underwent open arthrolysis of the elbow in four institutions. Demographic and clinical characteristics were collected from medical records. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was used to optimize the selection of relevant features. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to build the SPESSO. Its prediction performance was evaluated using the concordance index (C-index) and a calibration graph. Internal validation was conducted using bootstrapping validation. Results. BMI, the duration of stiffness, the preoperative ROM, the preoperative intensity of pain, and grade of post-traumatic osteoarthritis of the elbow were identified as predictors of outcome and incorporated to construct the nomogram. SPESSO displayed good discrimination with a C-index of 0.73 (95% confidence interval 0.64 to 0.81). A high C-index value of 0.70 could still be reached in the interval validation. The calibration graph showed good agreement between the nomogram prediction and the outcome. Conclusion. The newly developed SPESSO is a valid and convenient model which can be used to predict the outcome of open arthrolysis of the elbow. It could assist clinicians in counselling patients regarding the choice and expectations of treatment. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(4):486–494

Aims. To systematically evaluate whether bracing can effectively achieve curve regression in patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS), and to identify any predictors of curve regression after bracing. Methods. Two independent reviewers performed a comprehensive literature search in PubMed, Ovid, Web of Science, Scopus, and Cochrane Library to obtain all published information about the effectiveness of bracing in achieving curve regression in AIS patients. Search terms included “brace treatment” or “bracing,” “idiopathic scoliosis,” and “curve regression” or “curve reduction.” Inclusion criteria were studies recruiting patients with AIS undergoing brace treatment and one of the study outcomes must be curve regression or reduction, defined as > 5° reduction in coronal Cobb angle of a major curve upon bracing completion. Exclusion criteria were studies including non-AIS patients, studies not reporting p-value or confidence interval, animal studies, case reports, case series, and systematic reviews. The GRADE approach to assessing quality of evidence was used to evaluate each publication. Results. After abstract and full-text screening, 205 out of 216 articles were excluded. The 11 included studies all reported occurrence of curve regression among AIS patients who were braced. Regression rate ranged from 16.7% to 100%. We found evidence that bracing is effective in achieving curve regression among compliant AIS patients eligible for bracing, i.e. curves of 25° to 40°. A similar effect was also found in patients with major curve sizes ranging from 40° to 60° when combined with scoliosis-specific exercises. There was also evidence showing that a low apical vertebral body height ratio, in-brace correction, smaller pre-brace Cobb angle, and daily pattern of brace-wear compliance predict curve regression after bracing. Conclusion. Bracing provides a corrective effect on scoliotic curves of AIS patients to achieve curve regression, given there is high compliance rate and the incorporation of exercises. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(3):286–292