Aims. Glenoid bone loss is a significant problem in the management of shoulder instability. The threshold at which the bone loss is considered “critical” requiring bony reconstruction has steadily dropped and is now approximately 15%. This necessitates accurate measurement in order that the correct operation is performed. CT scanning is the most commonly used modality and there are a number of techniques described to measure the bone loss however few have been validated. The aim of this study was to assess the accuracy of the most commonly used techniques for measuring glenoid bone loss on CT. Methods. Anatomically accurate models with known glenoid diameter and degree of bone loss were used to determine the mathematical and statistical accuracy of six of the most commonly described techniques (relative diameter, linear ipsilateral circle of best fit (COBF), linear contralateral COBF, Pico, Sugaya, and circle line methods). The models were prepared at 13.8%, 17.6%, and 22.9% bone loss. Sequential CT scans were taken and randomized. Blinded reviewers made repeated measurements using the different techniques with a threshold for theoretical bone grafting set at 15%. Results. At 13.8%, only the Pico technique measured under the threshold. At 17.6% and 22.9% bone loss all techniques measured above the threshold. The Pico technique was 97.1% accurate, but had a high false-negative rate and poor sensitivity underestimating the need for grafting. The Sugaya technique had 100% specificity but 25% of the measurements were incorrectly above the threshold. A contralateral COBF underestimates the area by 16% and the diameter by 5 to 7%. Conclusion. No one method stands out as being truly accurate and clinicians need to be aware of the limitations of their chosen technique. They are not interchangeable, and caution must be used when reading the literature as comparisons are not reliable. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(7):478–489

Aims. Several previously identified patient-, injury-, and treatment-related factors are associated with the development of nonunion in distal femur fractures. However, the predictive value of these factors is not well defined. We aimed to assess the predictive ability of previously identified risk factors in the development of nonunion leading to secondary surgery in distal femur fractures. Methods. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of adult patients with traumatic distal femur fracture treated with lateral locking plate between 2009 and 2018. The patients who underwent secondary surgery due to fracture healing problem or plate failure were considered having nonunion. Background knowledge of risk factors of distal femur fracture nonunion based on previous literature was used to form an initial set of variables. A logistic regression model was used with previously identified patient- and injury-related variables (age, sex, BMI, diabetes, smoking, periprosthetic fracture, open fracture, trauma energy, fracture zone length, fracture comminution, medial side comminution) in the first analysis and with treatment-related variables (different surgeon-controlled factors, e.g. plate length, screw placement, and proximal fixation) in the second analysis to predict the nonunion leading to secondary surgery in distal femur fractures. Results. We were able to include 299 fractures in 291 patients. Altogether, 31/299 fractures (10%) developed nonunion. In the first analysis, pseudo-R. 2. was 0.27 and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.81. BMI was the most important variable in the prediction. In the second analysis, pseudo-R. 2. was 0.06 and AUC was 0.67. Plate length was the most important variable in the prediction. Conclusion. The model including patient- and injury-related factors had moderate fit and predictive ability in the prediction of distal femur fracture nonunion leading to secondary surgery. BMI was the most important variable in prediction of nonunion. Surgeon-controlled factors had a minor role in prediction of nonunion. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(8):584–593

Aims. Machine learning (ML), a branch of artificial intelligence that uses algorithms to learn from data and make predictions, offers a pathway towards more personalized and tailored surgical treatments. This approach is particularly relevant to prevalent joint diseases such as osteoarthritis (OA). In contrast to end-stage disease, where joint arthroplasty provides excellent results, early stages of OA currently lack effective therapies to halt or reverse progression. Accurate prediction of OA progression is crucial if timely interventions are to be developed, to enhance patient care and optimize the design of clinical trials. Methods. A systematic review was conducted in accordance with PRISMA guidelines. We searched MEDLINE and Embase on 5 May 2024 for studies utilizing ML to predict OA progression. Titles and abstracts were independently screened, followed by full-text reviews for studies that met the eligibility criteria. Key information was extracted and synthesized for analysis, including types of data (such as clinical, radiological, or biochemical), definitions of OA progression, ML algorithms, validation methods, and outcome measures. Results. Out of 1,160 studies initially identified, 39 were included. Most studies (85%) were published between 2020 and 2024, with 82% using publicly available datasets, primarily the Osteoarthritis Initiative. ML methods were predominantly supervised, with significant variability in the definitions of OA progression: most studies focused on structural changes (59%), while fewer addressed pain progression or both. Deep learning was used in 44% of studies, while automated ML was used in 5%. There was a lack of standardization in evaluation metrics and limited external validation. Interpretability was explored in 54% of studies, primarily using SHapley Additive exPlanations. Conclusion. Our systematic review demonstrates the feasibility of ML models in predicting OA progression, but also uncovers critical limitations that currently restrict their clinical applicability. Future priorities should include diversifying data sources, standardizing outcome measures, enforcing rigorous validation, and integrating more sophisticated algorithms. This paradigm shift from predictive modelling to actionable clinical tools has the potential to transform patient care and disease management in orthopaedic practice. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(11):1216–1222

Aims. Precise implant positioning, tailored to individual spinopelvic biomechanics and phenotype, is paramount for stability in total hip arthroplasty (THA). Despite a few studies on instability prediction, there is a notable gap in research utilizing artificial intelligence (AI). The objective of our pilot study was to evaluate the feasibility of developing an AI algorithm tailored to individual spinopelvic mechanics and patient phenotype for predicting impingement. Methods. This international, multicentre prospective cohort study across two centres encompassed 157 adults undergoing primary robotic arm-assisted THA. Impingement during specific flexion and extension stances was identified using the virtual range of motion (ROM) tool of the robotic software. The primary AI model, the Light Gradient-Boosting Machine (LGBM), used tabular data to predict impingement presence, direction (flexion or extension), and type. A secondary model integrating tabular data with plain anteroposterior pelvis radiographs was evaluated to assess for any potential enhancement in prediction accuracy. Results. We identified nine predictors from an analysis of baseline spinopelvic characteristics and surgical planning parameters. Using fivefold cross-validation, the LGBM achieved 70.2% impingement prediction accuracy. With impingement data, the LGBM estimated direction with 85% accuracy, while the support vector machine (SVM) determined impingement type with 72.9% accuracy. After integrating imaging data with a multilayer perceptron (tabular) and a convolutional neural network (radiograph), the LGBM’s prediction was 68.1%. Both combined and LGBM-only had similar impingement direction prediction rates (around 84.5%). Conclusion. This study is a pioneering effort in leveraging AI for impingement prediction in THA, utilizing a comprehensive, real-world clinical dataset. Our machine-learning algorithm demonstrated promising accuracy in predicting impingement, its type, and direction. While the addition of imaging data to our deep-learning algorithm did not boost accuracy, the potential for refined annotations, such as landmark markings, offers avenues for future enhancement. Prior to clinical integration, external validation and larger-scale testing of this algorithm are essential. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(8):671–680

Aims. There is ambiguity surrounding the degree of scaphoid union required to safely allow mobilization following scaphoid waist fracture. Premature mobilization could lead to refracture, but late mobilization may cause stiffness and delay return to normal function. This study aims to explore the risk of refracture at different stages of scaphoid waist fracture union in three common fracture patterns, using a novel finite element method. Methods. The most common anatomical variant of the scaphoid was modelled from a CT scan of a healthy hand and wrist using 3D Slicer freeware. This model was uploaded into COMSOL Multiphysics software to enable the application of physiological enhancements. Three common waist fracture patterns were produced following the Russe classification. Each fracture had differing stages of healing, ranging from 10% to 90% partial union, with increments of 10% union assessed. A physiological force of 100 N acting on the distal pole was applied, with the risk of refracture assessed using the Von Mises stress. Results. Overall, 90% to 30% fracture unions demonstrated a small, gradual increase in the Von Mises stress of all fracture patterns (16.0 MPa to 240.5 MPa). All fracture patterns showed a greater increase in Von Mises stress from 30% to 10% partial union (680.8 MPa to 6,288.6 MPa). Conclusion. Previous studies have suggested 25%, 50%, and 75% partial union as sufficient for resuming hand and wrist mobilization. This study shows that 30% union is sufficient to return to normal hand and wrist function in all three fracture patterns. Both 50% and 75% union are unnecessary and increase the risk of post-fracture stiffness. This study has also demonstrated the feasibility of finite element analysis (FEA) in scaphoid waist fracture research. FEA is a sustainable method which does not require the use of finite scaphoid cadavers, hence increasing accessibility into future scaphoid waist fracture-related research. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(8):612–620

Aims. In this investigation, we administered oxidative stress to nucleus pulposus cells (NPCs), recognized DNA-damage-inducible transcript 4 (DDIT4) as a component in intervertebral disc degeneration (IVDD), and devised a hydrogel capable of conveying small interfering RNA (siRNA) to IVDD. Methods. An in vitro model for oxidative stress-induced injury in NPCs was developed to elucidate the mechanisms underlying the upregulation of DDIT4 expression, activation of the reactive oxygen species (ROS)-thioredoxin-interacting protein (TXNIP)-NLRP3 signalling pathway, and nucleus pulposus pyroptosis. Furthermore, the mechanism of action of small interfering DDIT4 (siDDIT4) on NPCs in vitro was validated. A triplex hydrogel named siDDIT4@G5-P-HA was created by adsorbing siDDIT4 onto fifth-generation polyamidoamine (PAMAM) dendrimer using van der Waals interactions, and then coating it with hyaluronic acid (HA). In addition, we established a rat puncture IVDD model to decipher the hydrogel’s mechanism in IVDD. Results. A correlation between DDIT4 expression levels and disc degeneration was shown with human nucleus pulposus and needle-punctured rat disc specimens. We confirmed that DDIT4 was responsible for activating the ROS-TXNIP-NLRP3 axis during oxidative stress-induced pyroptosis in rat nucleus pulposus in vitro. Mitochondria were damaged during oxidative stress, and DDIT4 contributed to mitochondrial damage and ROS production. In addition, siDDIT4@G5-P-HA hydrogels showed good delivery activity of siDDIT4 to NPCs. In vitro studies illustrated the potential of the siDDIT4@G5-P-HA hydrogel for alleviating IVDD in rats. Conclusion. DDIT4 is a key player in mediating pyroptosis and IVDD in NPCs through the ROS-TXNIP-NLRP3 axis. Additionally, siDDIT4@G5-P-HA hydrogel has been found to relieve IVDD in rats. Our research offers an innovative treatment option for IVDD. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2024;13(5):247–260

Aims. Postoperative length of stay (LOS) and discharge dispositions following arthroplasty can be used as surrogate measurements for improvements in patients’ pathways and costs. With the increasing use of robotic technology in arthroplasty, it is important to assess its impact on LOS. The aim of this study was to identify factors associated with decreased LOS following robotic arm-assisted total hip arthroplasty (RO THA) compared with the conventional technique (CO THA). Methods. This large-scale, single-institution study included 1,607 patients of any age who underwent 1,732 primary THAs for any indication between May 2019 and January 2023. The data which were collected included the demographics of the patients, LOS, type of anaesthetic, the need for treatment in a post-anaesthesia care unit (PACU), readmission within 30 days, and discharge disposition. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to identify factors and the characteristics of patients which were associated with delayed discharge. Results. The multivariate model identified that age, female sex, admission into a PACU, American Society of Anesthesiologists grade > II, and CO THA were associated with a significantly higher risk of a LOS of > two days. The median LOS was 54 hours (interquartile range (IQR) 34 to 78) in the RO THA group compared with 60 hours (IQR 51 to 100) in the CO THA group (p < 0.001). The discharge dispositions were comparable between the two groups. A higher proportion of patients undergoing CO THA required PACU admission postoperatively, although without reaching statistical significance (7.2% vs 5.2%, p = 0.238). Conclusion. We found that among other baseline characteristics and comorbidities, RO THA was associated with a significantly shorter LOS, with no difference in discharge destination. With the increasing demand for THA, these findings suggest that robotic assistance in THA could reduce costs. However, randomized controlled trials are required to investigate the cost-effectiveness of this technology. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(3 Supple A):24–30

Aims. To evaluate how abnormal proximal femoral anatomy affects different femoral version measurements in young patients with hip pain. Methods. First, femoral version was measured in 50 hips of symptomatic consecutively selected patients with hip pain (mean age 20 years (SD 6), 60% (n = 25) females) on preoperative CT scans using different measurement methods: Lee et al, Reikerås et al, Tomczak et al, and Murphy et al. Neck-shaft angle (NSA) and α angle were measured on coronal and radial CT images. Second, CT scans from three patients with femoral retroversion, normal femoral version, and anteversion were used to create 3D femur models, which were manipulated to generate models with different NSAs and different cam lesions, resulting in eight models per patient. Femoral version measurements were repeated on manipulated femora. Results. Comparing the different measurement methods for femoral version resulted in a maximum mean difference of 18° (95% CI 16 to 20) between the most proximal (Lee et al) and most distal (Murphy et al) methods. Higher differences in proximal and distal femoral version measurement techniques were seen in femora with greater femoral version (r > 0.46; p < 0.001) and greater NSA (r > 0.37; p = 0.008) between all measurement methods. In the parametric 3D manipulation analysis, differences in femoral version increased 11° and 9° in patients with high and normal femoral version, respectively, with increasing NSA (110° to 150°). Conclusion. Measurement of femoral version angles differ depending on the method used to almost 20°, which is in the range of the aimed surgical correction in derotational femoral osteotomy and thus can be considered clinically relevant. Differences between proximal and distal measurement methods further increase by increasing femoral version and NSA. Measurement methods that take the entire proximal femur into account by using distal landmarks may produce more sensitive measurements of these differences. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(10):759–766

Aims. The objective of this study was to compare simulated range of motion (ROM) for reverse total shoulder arthroplasty (rTSA) with and without adjustment for scapulothoracic orientation in a global reference system. We hypothesized that values for simulated ROM in preoperative planning software with and without adjustment for scapulothoracic orientation would be significantly different. Methods. A statistical shape model of the entire humerus and scapula was fitted into ten shoulder CT scans randomly selected from 162 patients who underwent rTSA. Six shoulder surgeons independently planned a rTSA in each model using prototype development software with the ability to adjust for scapulothoracic orientation, the starting position of the humerus, as well as kinematic planes in a global reference system simulating previously described posture types A, B, and C. ROM with and without posture adjustment was calculated and compared in all movement planes. Results. All movement planes showed significant differences when comparing protocols with and without adjustment for posture. The largest mean difference was seen in external rotation, being 62° (SD 16°) without adjustment compared to 25° (SD 9°) with posture adjustment (p < 0.001), with the highest mean difference being 49° (SD 15°) in type C. Mean extension was 57° (SD 18°) without adjustment versus 24° (SD 11°) with adjustment (p < 0.001) and the highest mean difference of 47° (SD 18°) in type C. Mean abducted internal rotation was 69° (SD 11°) without adjustment versus 31° (SD 6°) with posture adjustment (p < 0.001), showing the highest mean difference of 51° (SD 11°) in type C. Conclusion. The present study demonstrates that accounting for scapulothoracic orientation has a significant impact on simulated ROM for rTSA in all motion planes, specifically rendering vastly lower values for external rotation, extension, and high internal rotation. The substantial differences observed in this study warrant a critical re-evaluation of all previously published studies that examined component choice and placement for optimized ROM in rTSA using conventional preoperative planning software. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(11):1284–1292

Aims. The aims of this study were to assess quality of life after hip fractures, to characterize respondents to patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs), and to describe the recovery trajectory of hip fracture patients. Methods. Data on 35,206 hip fractures (2014 to 2018; 67.2% female) in the Norwegian Hip Fracture Register were linked to data from the Norwegian Patient Registry and Statistics Norway. PROMs data were collected using the EuroQol five-dimension three-level questionnaire (EQ-5D-3L) scoring instrument and living patients were invited to respond at four, 12, and 36 months post fracture. Multiple imputation procedures were performed as a model to substitute missing PROM data. Differences in response rates between categories of covariates were analyzed using chi-squared test statistics. The association between patient and socioeconomic characteristics and the reported EQ-5D-3L scores was analyzed using linear regression. Results. The median age was 83 years (interquartile range 76 to 90), and 3,561 (10%) lived in a healthcare facility. Observed mean pre-fracture EQ-5D-3L index score was 0.81 (95% confidence interval 0.803 to 0.810), which decreased to 0.66 at four months, to 0.70 at 12 months, and to 0.73 at 36 months. In the imputed datasets, the reduction from pre-fracture was similar (0.15 points) but an improvement up to 36 months was modest (0.01 to 0.03 points). Patients with higher age, male sex, severe comorbidity, cognitive impairment, lower income, lower education, and those in residential care facilities had a lower proportion of respondents, and systematically reported a lower health-related quality of life (HRQoL). The response pattern of patients influenced scores significantly, and the highest scores are found in patients reporting scores at all observation times. Conclusion. Hip fracture leads to a persistent reduction in measured HRQoL, up to 36 months. The patients’ health and socioeconomic status were associated with the proportion of patients returning PROM data for analysis, and affected the results reported. Observed EQ-5D-3L scores are affected by attrition and selection bias mechanisms and motivate the use of statistical modelling for adjustment. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(4):394–400

Aims. Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a potential complication of foot and ankle surgery. There is a lack of agreement on contributing risk factors and chemical prophylaxis requirements. The primary outcome of this study was to analyze the 90-day incidence of symptomatic VTE and VTE-related mortality in patients undergoing foot and ankle surgery and Achilles tendon (TA) rupture. Secondary aims were to assess the variation in the provision of chemical prophylaxis and risk factors for VTE. Methods. This was a multicentre, prospective national collaborative audit with data collection over nine months for all patients undergoing foot and ankle surgery in an operating theatre or TA rupture treatment, within participating UK hospitals. The association between VTE and thromboprophylaxis was assessed with a univariable logistic regression model. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to identify key predictors for the risk of VTE. Results. A total of 13,569 patients were included from 68 sites. Overall, 11,363 patients were available for analysis: 44.79% were elective (n = 5,090), 42.16% were trauma excluding TA ruptures (n = 4,791), 3.50% were acute diabetic procedures (n = 398), 2.44% were TA ruptures undergoing surgery (n = 277), and 7.10% were TA ruptures treated nonoperatively (n = 807). In total, 11 chemical anticoagulants were recorded, with the most common agent being low-molecular-weight heparin (n = 6,303; 56.79%). A total of 32.71% received no chemical prophylaxis. There were 99 cases of VTE (incidence 0.87% (95% CI 0.71 to 1.06)). VTE-related mortality was 0.03% (95% CI 0.005 to 0.080). Univariable analysis showed that increased age and American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade had higher odds of VTE, as did having previous cancer, stroke, or history of VTE. On multivariable analysis, the strongest predictors for VTE were the type of foot and ankle procedure and ASA grade. Conclusion. The 90-day incidence of symptomatic VTE and mortality related to VTE is low in foot and ankle surgery and TA management. There was notable variability in the chemical prophylaxis used. The significant risk factors associated with 90-day symptomatic VTE were TA rupture and high ASA grade. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(11):1249–1256

Aims. To investigate the efficacy of ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid-normal saline (EDTA-NS) in dispersing biofilms and reducing bacterial infections. Methods. EDTA-NS solutions were irrigated at different durations (1, 5, 10, and 30 minutes) and concentrations (1, 2, 5, 10, and 50 mM) to disrupt Staphylococcus aureus biofilms on Matrigel-coated glass and two materials widely used in orthopaedic implants (Ti-6Al-4V and highly cross-linked polyethylene (HXLPE)). To assess the efficacy of biofilm dispersion, crystal violet staining biofilm assay and colony counting after sonification and culturing were performed. The results were further confirmed and visualized by confocal laser scanning microscopy (CLSM) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). We then investigated the efficacies of EDTA-NS irrigation in vivo in rat and pig models of biofilm-associated infection. Results. When 10 mM or higher EDTA-NS concentrations were used for ten minutes, over 99% of S. aureus biofilm formed on all three types of materials was eradicated in terms of absorbance measured at 595 nm and colony-forming units (CFUs) after culturing. Consistently, SEM and CSLM scanning demonstrated that less adherence of S. aureus could be observed on all three types of materials after 10 mM EDTA-NS irrigation for ten minutes. In the rat model, compared with NS irrigation combined with rifampin (Ti-6Al-4V wire-implanted rats: 60% bacteria survived; HXLPE particle-implanted rats: 63.3% bacteria survived), EDTA-NS irrigation combined with rifampin produced the highest removal rate (Ti-6Al-4V wire-implanted rats: 3.33% bacteria survived; HXLPE particle-implanted rats: 6.67% bacteria survived). In the pig model, compared with NS irrigation combined with rifampin (Ti-6Al-4V plates: 75% bacteria survived; HXLPE bearings: 87.5% bacteria survived), we observed a similar level of biofilm disruption on Ti-6Al-4V plates (25% bacteria survived) and HXLPE bearings (37.5% bacteria survived) after EDTA-NS irrigation combined with rifampin. The in vivo study revealed that the biomass of S. aureus biofilm was significantly reduced when treated with rifampin following irrigation and debridement, as indicated by both the biofilm bacterial burden and crystal violet staining. EDTA-NS irrigation (10 mM/10 min) combined with rifampin effectively removes S. aureus biofilm-associated infections both in vitro and in vivo. Conclusion. EDTA-NS irrigation with or without antibiotics is effective in eradicating S. aureus biofilm-associated infection both ex and in vivo. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2024;13(1):40–51

Aims. To estimate the potential cost-effectiveness of adalimumab compared with standard care alone for the treatment of early-stage Dupuytren’s disease (DD) and the value of further research from an NHS perspective. Methods. We used data from the Repurposing anti-TNF for Dupuytren’s disease (RIDD) randomized controlled trial of intranodular adalimumab injections in patients with early-stage progressive DD. RIDD found that intranodular adalimumab injections reduced nodule hardness and size in patients with early-stage DD, indicating the potential to control disease progression. A within-trial cost-utility analysis compared four adalimumab injections with no further treatment against standard care alone, taking a 12-month time horizon and using prospective data on EuroQol five-dimension five-level questionnaire (EQ-5D-5L) and resource use from the RIDD trial. We also developed a patient-level simulation model similar to a Markov model to extrapolate trial outcomes over a lifetime using data from the RIDD trial and a literature review. This also evaluated repeated courses of adalimumab each time the nodule reactivated (every three years) in patients who initially responded. Results. The within-trial economic evaluation found that adalimumab plus standard care cost £503,410 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained versus standard care alone over a 12-month time horizon. The model-based extrapolation suggested that, over a lifetime, repeated courses of adalimumab could cost £14,593 (95% confidence interval £7,534 to £42,698) per QALY gained versus standard care alone. If the NHS was willing to pay £20,000/QALY gained, there is a 77% probability that adalimumab with retreatment is the best value for money. Conclusion. Repeated courses of adalimumab are likely to be a cost-effective treatment for progressive early-stage DD. The value of perfect parameter information that would eliminate all uncertainty around the parameters estimated in RIDD and the duration of quiescence was estimated to be £105 per patient or £272 million for all 2,584,411 prevalent cases in the UK. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(11):898–906

Aims. Cementing in arthroplasty for hip fracture is associated with improved postoperative function, but may have an increased risk of early mortality compared to uncemented fixation. Quantifying this mortality risk is important in providing safe patient care. This study investigated the association between cement use in arthroplasty and mortality at 30 days and one year in patients aged 50 years and over with hip fracture. Methods. This retrospective cohort study used linked data from the Australian Hip Fracture Registry and the National Death Index. Descriptive analysis and Kaplan-Meier survival curves tested the unadjusted association of mortality between cemented and uncemented procedures. Multilevel logistic regression, adjusted for covariates, tested the association between cement use and 30-day mortality following arthroplasty. Given the known institutional variation in preference for cemented fixation, an instrumental variable analysis was also performed to minimize the effect of unknown confounders. Adjusted Cox modelling analyzed the association between cement use and mortality at 30 days and one year following surgery. Results. The 30-day mortality was 6.9% for cemented and 4.9% for uncemented groups (p = 0.003). Cement use was significantly associated with 30-day mortality in the Kaplan-Meier survival curve (p = 0.003). After adjusting for covariates, no significant association between cement use and 30-day mortality was shown in the adjusted multilevel logistic regression (odd rati0 (OR) 1.1, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.9 to 1.5; p = 0.366), or in the instrumental variable analysis (OR 1.0, 95% CI 0.9 to 1.0, p=0.524). There was no significant between-group difference in mortality within 30days (hazard ratio (HR) 0.9, 95% CI 0.7to 1.1; p = 0.355) or one year (HR 0.9 95% CI 0.8 to 1.1; p = 0.328) in the Cox modelling. Conclusion. No statistically significant difference in patient mortality with cement use in arthroplasty was demonstrated in this population, once adjusted for covariates. This study concludes that cementing in arthroplasty for hip fracture is a safe means of surgical fixation. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(3):198–204

Aims. The aim of this study was to determine the risk of tibial eminence avulsion intraoperatively for bi-unicondylar knee arthroplasty (Bi-UKA), with consideration of the effect of implant positioning, overstuffing, and sex, compared to the risk for isolated medial unicondylar knee arthroplasty (UKA-M) and bicruciate-retaining total knee arthroplasty (BCR-TKA). Methods. Two experimentally validated finite element models of tibia were implanted with UKA-M, Bi-UKA, and BCR-TKA. Intraoperative loads were applied through the condyles, anterior cruciate ligament (ACL), medial collateral ligament (MCL), and lateral collateral ligament (LCL), and the risk of fracture (ROF) was evaluated in the spine as the ratio of the 95. th. percentile maximum principal elastic strains over the tensile yield strain of proximal tibial bone. Results. Peak tensile strains occurred on the anterior portion of the medial sagittal cut in all simulations. Lateral translation of the medial implant in Bi-UKA had the largest increase in ROF of any of the implant positions (43%). Overstuffing the joint by 2 mm had a much larger effect, resulting in a six-fold increase in ROF. Bi-UKA had ~10% increased ROF compared to UKA-M for both the male and female models, although the smaller, less dense female model had a 1.4 times greater ROF compared to the male model. Removal of anterior bone akin to BCR-TKA doubled ROF compared to Bi-UKA. Conclusion. Tibial eminence avulsion fracture has a similar risk associated with Bi-UKA to UKA-M. The risk is higher for smaller and less dense tibiae. To minimize risk, it is most important to avoid overstuffing the joint, followed by correctly positioning the medial implant, taking care not to narrow the bone island anteriorly. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2022;11(8):575–584

Aims. Heterotopic ossification (HO) is a common complication after elbow trauma and can cause severe upper limb disability. Although multiple prognostic factors have been reported to be associated with the development of post-traumatic HO, no model has yet been able to combine these predictors more succinctly to convey prognostic information and medical measures to patients. Therefore, this study aimed to identify prognostic factors leading to the formation of HO after surgery for elbow trauma, and to establish and validate a nomogram to predict the probability of HO formation in such particular injuries. Methods. This multicentre case-control study comprised 200 patients with post-traumatic elbow HO and 229 patients who had elbow trauma but without HO formation between July 2019 and December 2020. Features possibly associated with HO formation were obtained. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was used to optimize feature selection. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was applied to build the new nomogram: the Shanghai post-Traumatic Elbow Heterotopic Ossification Prediction model (STEHOP). STEHOP was validated by concordance index (C-index) and calibration plot. Internal validation was conducted using bootstrapping validation. Results. Male sex, obesity, open wound, dislocations, late definitive surgical treatment, and lack of use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs were identified as adverse predictors and incorporated to construct the STEHOP model. It displayed good discrimination with a C-index of 0.80 (95% confidence interval 0.75 to 0.84). A high C-index value of 0.77 could still be reached in the internal validation. The calibration plot showed good agreement between nomogram prediction and observed outcomes. Conclusion. The newly developed STEHOP model is a valid and convenient instrument to predict HO formation after surgery for elbow trauma. It could assist clinicians in counselling patients regarding treatment expectations and therapeutic choices. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(8):963–971

Aims. Currently, the effect of drug treatment for osteoporosis is relatively poor, and the side effects are numerous and serious. Melatonin is a potential drug to improve bone mass in postmenopausal women. Unfortunately, the mechanism by which melatonin improves bone metabolism remains unclear. The aim of this study was to further investigate the potential mechanism of melatonin in the treatment of osteoporosis. Methods. The effects of melatonin on mitochondrial apoptosis protein, bmal1 gene, and related pathway proteins of RAW264.7 (mouse mononuclear macrophage leukaemia cells) were analyzed by western blot. Cell Counting Kit-8 was used to evaluate the effect of melatonin on cell viability. Flow cytometry was used to evaluate the effect of melatonin on the apoptosis of RAW264.7 cells and mitochondrial membrane potential. A reactive oxygen species (ROS) detection kit was used to evaluate the level of ROS in osteoclast precursors. We used bmal1-small interfering RNAs (siRNAs) to downregulate the Bmal1 gene. We established a postmenopausal mouse model and verified the effect of melatonin on the bone mass of postmenopausal osteoporosis in mice via micro-CT. Bmal1 lentiviral activation particles were used to establish an in vitro model of overexpression of the bmal1 gene. Results. Melatonin promoted apoptosis of RAW264.7 cells and increased the expression of BMAL1 to inhibit the activation of ROS and phosphorylation of mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK)-p38. Silencing the bmal1 gene weakened the above effects of melatonin. After that, we used dehydrocorydaline (DHC) to enhance the activation of MAPK-p38, and the effects of melatonin on reducing ROS levels and promoting apoptosis of RAW264.7 cells were also blocked. Then, we constructed a mouse model of postmenopausal osteoporosis and administered melatonin. The results showed that melatonin improves bone loss in ovariectomized mice. Finally, we established a model of overexpression of the bmal1 gene, and these results suggest that the bmal1 gene can regulate ROS activity and change the level of the MAPK-p38 signalling pathway. Conclusion. Our study confirmed that melatonin promotes the apoptosis of RAW264.7 cells through BMAL1/ROS/MAPK-p38, and revealed the therapeutic effect and mechanism of melatonin in postmenopausal osteoporosis. This finding enriches BMAL1 as a potential target for the treatment of osteoporosis and the pathogenesis of postmenopausal osteoporosis. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2023;12(11):677–690

Aims. Despite new technologies for total knee arthroplasty (TKA), approximately 20% of patients are dissatisfied. A major reason for dissatisfaction and revision surgery after TKA is persistent pain. The radiological grade of osteoarthritis (OA) preoperatively has been investigated as a predictor of the outcome after TKA, with conflicting results. The aim of this study was to determine if there is a difference in the intensity of pain 12 months after TKA in relation to the preoperative radiological grade of OA alone, and the combination of the intensity of preoperative pain and radiological grade of OA. Methods. The preoperative data of 300 patients who underwent primary TKA were collected, including clinical information (age, sex, preoperative pain), psychological variables (depression, anxiety, pain catastrophizing, anticipated pain), and quantitative sensory testing (temporal summation, pressure pain thresholds, conditioned pain modulation). The preoperative radiological severity of OA was graded according to the Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) classification. Persistent pain in the knee was recorded 12 months postoperatively. Generalized linear models explored differences in postoperative pain according to the KL grade, and combined preoperative pain and KL grade. Relative risk models explored which preoperative variables were associated with the high preoperative pain/low KL grade group. Results. Pain 12 months after TKA was not associated with the preoperative KL grade alone. Significantly increased pain 12 months after TKA was found in patients with a combination of high preoperative pain and a low KL grade (p = 0.012). Patients in this group were significantly more likely to be male, younger, and have higher preoperative pain catastrophizing, higher depression, and lower anxiety (all p ≤ 0.05). Conclusion. Combined high preoperative pain and low radiological grade of OA, but not the radiological grade alone, was associated with a higher intensity of pain 12 months after primary TKA. This group may have a more complex cause of pain that requires additional psychological interventions in order to optimize the outcome of TKA. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(11):1202–1208

Aims. The aims of this study were to assess mapping models to predict the three-level version of EuroQoL five-dimension utility index (EQ-5D-3L) from the Oxford Knee Score (OKS) and validate these before and after total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Methods. A retrospective cohort of 5,857 patients was used to create the prediction models, and a second cohort of 721 patients from a different centre was used to validate the models, all of whom underwent TKA. Patient characteristics, BMI, OKS, and EQ-5D-3L were collected preoperatively and one year postoperatively. Generalized linear regression was used to formulate the prediction models. Results. There were significant correlations between the OKS and EQ-5D-3L preoperatively (r = 0.68; p < 0.001) and postoperatively (r = 0.77; p < 0.001) and for the change in the scores (r = 0.61; p < 0.001). Three different models (preoperative, postoperative, and change) were created. There were no significant differences between the actual and predicted mean EQ-5D-3L utilities at any timepoint or for change in the scores (p > 0.090) in the validation cohort. There was a significant correlation between the actual and predicted EQ-5D-3L utilities preoperatively (r = 0.63; p < 0.001) and postoperatively (r = 0.77; p < 0.001) and for the change in the scores (r = 0.56; p < 0.001). Bland-Altman plots demonstrated that a lower utility was overestimated, and higher utility was underestimated. The individual predicted EQ-5D-3L that was within ± 0.05 and ± 0.010 (minimal clinically important difference (MCID)) of the actual EQ-5D-3L varied between 13% to 35% and 26% to 64%, respectively, according to timepoint assessed and change in the scores, but was not significantly different between the modelling and validation cohorts (p ≥ 0.148). Conclusion. The OKS can be used to estimate EQ-5D-3L. Predicted individual patient utility error beyond the MCID varied from one-third to two-thirds depending on timepoint assessed, but the mean for a cohort did not differ and could be employed for this purpose. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(7):573–581

Aims. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence and impact of tourniquet use in patients undergoing limb salvage surgery with endoprosthetic reconstruction for a tumour around the knee. Methods. We retrieved data from the Prophylactic Antibiotic Regimens in Tumor Surgery (PARITY) trial; specifically, differences in baseline characteristics, surgical details, and postoperative functional outcomes between patients who had undergone surgery under tourniquet and those who had not. A linear regression model was created to evaluate the impact of tourniquet use on postoperative Toronto Extremity Salvage Scores (TESSs) while controlling for confounding variables. A negative-binomial regression model was constructed to explore predictors of postoperative length of stay (LOS). Results. Of the 604 patients enrolled in the PARITY trial, 421 had tumours around the knee joint, of whom 225 (53%) underwent surgery under tourniquet. The tourniquet group was younger (p = 0.014), more likely to undergo surgery for a tumour of the tibia, and had shorter operating times by a mean of 50 minutes (95% confidence interval 30 to 72; p < 0.001). The adjusted linear regression model found that the use of a tourniquet, a shorter operating time, and a higher baseline TESS independently predicted better function at both three- and six-month follow-up. The negative-binomial regression model showed that tourniquet use, shorter operating time, younger age, and intraoperative tranexamic acid administration independently predicted a shorter LOS in hospital. Conclusion. The results of this study show that in patients undergoing resection of a tumour around the knee and endoprosthetic reconstruction, the use of an intraoperative tourniquet is associated with a shorter operating time, a reduced length of stay in hospital, and a better early functional outcome. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(10):1168–1173