We undertook a prospective study to evaluate the prognostic significance of the serum levels of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) in predicting the survival of patients with osteosarcoma. The levels were measured by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in 15 patients with osteosarcoma before commencing treatment. The patients were divided into two groups, with a high or a low serum VEGF level, and the incidence of metastases and overall survival rate were compared. No significant relationship was observed between the serum VEGF levels and gender, age, the size of the tumour or the response to pre-operative chemotherapy. Patients with a serum VEGF > 1000 pg/ml had significantly worse survival than those with a level < 1000 pg/ml (p = 0.002). The serum VEGF level may be useful in predicting the prognosis for survival in patients with osteosarcoma

Aims

The aim of this study was to define the complications and long-term outcome following adolescent mid-shaft clavicular fracture.

Aims

Patients with abnormal spinopelvic mobility are at increased risk for instability. Measuring the change in sacral slope (ΔSS) can help determine spinopelvic mobility preoperatively. Sacral slope (SS) should decrease at least 10° to demonstrate adequate posterior pelvic tilt. There is potential for different ΔSS measurements in the same patient based on sitting posture. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of sitting posture on the ΔSS in patients undergoing total hip arthroplasty (THA).

Our aim was to determine whether abnormalities noted on MRI immediately after reduction for developmental dysplasia of the hip could predict the persistance of dysplasia and aid surgical planning. Scans of 13 hips in which acetabular dysplasia had resolved by the age of four years were compared with those of five which had required pelvic osteotomy for persisting dysplasia. The scans were analysed by two consultant musculoskeletal radiologists who were blinded to the outcome in each child. The postreduction scans highlighted a number of anatomical abnormalities secondary to developmental dysplasia of the hip, but statistical analysis showed that none were predictive of persisting acetabular dysplasia in the older child, suggesting that the factors which determine the long-term outcome were not visible on these images

This annotation briefly reviews the history of artificial intelligence and machine learning in health care and orthopaedics, and considers the role it will have in the future, particularly with reference to statistical analyses involving large datasets.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B:1476–1478

Redisplacement is the most common complication of immobilisation in a cast for the treatment of diaphyseal fractures of the forearm in children. We have previously shown that the three-point index (TPI) can accurately predict redisplacement of fractures of the distal radius. In this prospective study we applied this index to assessment of diaphyseal fractures of the forearm in children and compared it with other cast-related indices that might predict redisplacement. A total of 76 children were included. Their ages, initial displacement, quality of reduction, site and level of the fractures and quality of the casting according to the TPI, Canterbury index and padding index were analysed. Logistic regression analysis was used to investigate risk factors for redisplacement. A total of 18 fractures (24%) redisplaced in the cast. A TPI value of > 0.8 was the only significant risk factor for redisplacement (odds ratio 238.5 (95% confidence interval 7.063 to 8054.86); p < 0.001). The TPI was far superior to other radiological indices, with a sensitivity of 84% and a specificity of 97% in successfully predicting redisplacement. We recommend it for routine use in the management of these fractures in children. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2013;95-B:563–7

The aim of this study was to examine the rates and potential risk factors for 28-day re-admission following a fracture of the hip at a high-volume tertiary care hospital. We retrospectively reviewed 467 consecutive patients with a fracture of the hip treated in the course of one year. Causes and risk factors for unplanned 28-day re-admissions were examined using univariate and multivariate analysis, including the difference in one-year mortality. A total of 55 patients (11.8%) were re-admitted within 28 days of discharge. The most common causes were pneumonia in 15 patients (27.3%), dehydration and renal dysfunction in ten (18.2%) and deteriorating mobility in ten (18.2%). A moderate correlation was found between chest infection during the initial admission and subsequent re-admission with pneumonia (r = 0.44, p < 0.001). A significantly higher mortality rate at one year was seen in the re-admission group (41.8% (23 of 55) vs 18.7% (77 of 412), p < 0.001). Logistic regression analysis identified advancing age, admission source, and the comorbidities of diabetes and neurological disorders as the strongest predictors for re-admission. Early re-admission following hip fracture surgery is predominantly due to medical causes and is associated with higher one-year mortality. The risk factors for re-admission can have implications for performance-based pay initiatives in the NHS. Multidisciplinary management in reducing post-operative active clinical problems may reduce early re-admission

Aims

Using tibial shaft fracture participants from a large, multicentre randomized controlled trial, we investigated if patient and surgical factors were associated with health-related quality of life (HRQoL) at one year post-surgery.

The aim of this study was to determine whether the high-sensitivity modified Glasgow prognostic score (Hs-mGPS) could predict the disease-specific survival and oncological outcome in adult patients with non-metastatic soft-tissue sarcoma before treatment. A total of 139 patients treated between 2001 and 2012 were retrospectively reviewed. The Hs-mGPS varied between 0 and 2. Patients with a score of 2 had a poorer disease-specific survival than patients with a score of 0 (p < 0.001). The estimated five-year rate of disease-specific survival for those with a score of 2 was 0%, compared with 85.4% (95% CI 77.3 to 93.5) for those with a score of 0. Those with a score of 2 also had a poorer disease-specific survival than those with a score of 1 (75.3%, 95% CI 55.8 to 94.8; p < 0.001). Patients with a score of 2 also had a poorer event-free rate than those with a score of 0 (p < 0.001). Those with a score of 2 also had a poorer event-free survival than did those with a score of 1 (p = 0.03). A multivariate analysis showed that the Hs-mGPS remained an independent predictor of survival and recurrence. The Hs-mGPS could be a useful prognostic marker in patients with a soft-tissue sarcoma. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2015; 97-B:847–52

Aims

An algorithm to determine the constitutional alignment of the lower limb once arthritic deformity has occurred would be of value when undertaking kinematically aligned total knee arthroplasty (TKA). The purpose of this study was to determine if the arithmetic hip-knee-ankle angle (aHKA) algorithm could estimate the constitutional alignment of the lower limb following development of significant arthritis.

There is little in the literature on the level of participation in sports which patients undertake after total hip replacement (THR). Our aims in this study were to determine first, the level of sporting activity, second, the predictive factors for returning to sporting activity, and third, the correlation between participation in sports and satisfaction after THR. We retrospectively identified 815 patients who had undergone THR between 1995 and 2005. All were asked to complete a self-administered questionnaire regarding their sporting activity. A total of 571 patients (71%) met the inclusion criteria and completed the evaluation. At a mean follow-up of 9.8 years (. sd. 2.9), 366 patients (64%) returned to sporting activity as defined by a University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA) score of > 5. The main reasons that patients had for refraining from sports were fear of dislocation (65; 31.6%), avoiding wear (52; 25.4%), and the recommendation of the surgeon (34; 16.6%). There was a significant relationship between higher post-operative participation in sport in those patients with a higher pre-operative Harris hip score (HHS) (p = 0.0074), motivation to participate in sporting activities (p = 0.00022) and a shorter duration of symptoms (p = 0.0034). Finally, there was a correlation between age (p = 0.00013), UCLA score (p = 0.012) and pre-operative HHS (p = 0.00091) and satisfaction. In conclusion, we found that most patients participate in sporting activity after THR, regardless of the advice of their surgeon, and that there is a correlation between the level of participation and pre-operative function, motivation, duration of symptoms and post-operative satisfaction. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2014;96-B:1041–6

The deformity index is a new radiological measurement of the degree of deformity of the femoral head in unilateral Perthes’ disease. Its values represent a continuous outcome measure of deformity incorporating changes in femoral epiphyseal height and width compared with the unaffected side. The sphericity of the femoral head in 30 radiographs (ten normal and 20 from patients with Perthes’ disease) were rated blindly as normal, mild, moderate or severe by three observers. Further blinded measurements of the deformity index were made on two further occasions with intervals of one month. There was good agreement between the deformity index score and the subjective grading of deformity. Intra- and interobserver agreement for the deformity index was high. The intraobserver intraclass correlation coefficient for each observer was 0.98, 0.99 and 0.97, respectively, while the interobserver intraclass correlation coefficient was 0.98 for the first and 0.97 for the second set of calculations. We also reviewed retrospectively 96 radiographs of children with Perthes’ disease, who were part of a multicentre trial which followed them to skeletal maturity. We found that the deformity index at two years correlated well with the Stulberg grading at skeletal maturity. A deformity index value above 0.3 was associated with the development of an aspherical femoral head. Using a deformity index value of 0.3 to divide groups for risk gives a sensitivity of 80% and specificity of 81% for predicting a Stulberg grade of III or IV. We conclude that the deformity index at two years is a valid and reliable radiological outcome measure in unilateral Perthes’ disease

In this study we evaluated whether pre-operative Western Ontario and McMaster Universities (WOMAC) osteoarthritis scores can predict satisfaction following total hip arthroplasty (THA). Prospective data for a cohort of patients undergoing THA from two large academic centres were collected, and pre-operative and one-year post-operative WOMAC scores and a 25-point satisfaction questionnaire were obtained for 446 patients. Satisfaction scores were dichotomised into either improvement or deterioration. Scatter plots and Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient were used to describe the association between pre-operative WOMAC and one-year post-operative WOMAC scores and patient satisfaction. Satisfaction was compared using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis against pre-operative, post-operative and δ WOMAC scores. . We found no relationship between pre-operative WOMAC scores and one-year post-operative WOMAC or satisfaction scores, with Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients of 0.16 and –0.05, respectively. The ROC analysis showed areas under the curve (AUC) of 0.54 (pre-operative WOMAC), 0.67 (post-operative WOMAC) and 0.43 (δ WOMAC), respectively, for an improvement in satisfaction. . We conclude that the pre-operative WOMAC score does not predict the post-operative WOMAC score or patient satisfaction after THA, and that WOMAC scores can therefore not be used to prioritise patient care. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2015;97-B:150–3

Plasma levels of cobalt and chromium ions and Metal Artefact Reduction Sequence (MARS)-MRI scans were performed on patients with 209 consecutive, unilateral, symptomatic metal-on-metal (MoM) hip arthroplasties. There was wide variation in plasma cobalt and chromium levels, and MARS-MRI scans were positive for adverse reaction to metal debris (ARMD) in 84 hips (40%). There was a significant difference in the median plasma cobalt and chromium levels between those with positive and negative MARS-MRI scans (p < 0.001). Compared with MARS-MRI as the potential reference standard for the diagnosis of ARMD, the sensitivity of metal ion analysis for cobalt or chromium with a cut-off of > 7 µg/l was 57%. The specificity was 65%, positive predictive value was 52% and the negative predictive value was 69% in symptomatic patients. A lowered threshold of > 3.5 µg/l for cobalt and chromium ion levels improved the sensitivity and negative predictive value to 86% and 74% but at the expense of specificity (27%) and positive predictive value (44%). Metal ion analysis is not recommended as a sole indirect screening test in the surveillance of symptomatic patients with a MoM arthroplasty. The investigating clinicians should have a low threshold for obtaining cross-sectional imaging in these patients, even in the presence of low plasma metal ion levels

There is no absolute method of evaluating healing of a fracture of the tibial shaft. In this study we sought to validate a new clinical method based on the systematic observation of gait, first by assessing the degree of agreement between three independent observers regarding the gait score for a given patient, and secondly by determining how such a score might predict healing of a fracture. We used a method of evaluating gait to assess 33 patients (29 men and four women, with a mean age of 29 years (15 to 62)) who had sustained an isolated fracture of the tibial shaft and had been treated with a locked intramedullary nail. There were 15 closed and 18 open fractures (three Gustilo and Anderson grade I, seven grade II, seven grade IIIA and one grade IIIB). Assessment was carried out three and six months post-operatively using videos taken with a digital camera. Gait was graded on a scale ranging from 1 (extreme difficulty) to 4 (normal gait). Bivariate analysis included analysis of variance to determine whether the gait score statistically correlated with previously validated and standardised scores of clinical status and radiological evidence of union. An association was found between the pattern of gait and all the other variables. Improvement in gait was associated with the absence of pain on weight-bearing, reduced tenderness over the fracture, a higher Radiographic Union Scale in Tibial Fractures score, and improved functional status, measured using the Brazilian version of the Short Musculoskeletal Function Assessment questionnaire (all p < 0.001). Although further study is needed, the analysis of gait in this way may prove to be a useful clinical tool

Aims

Cementless unicompartmental knee arthroplasty (UKA) has advantages over cemented UKA, including improved fixation, but has a higher risk of tibial plateau fracture, particularly in Japanese patients. The aim of this multicentre study was to determine when cementless tibial components could safely be used in Japanese patients based on the size and shape of the tibia.

Plain radiographs of 67 acute spinal compression fractures in 49 patients were analysed by subjective and objective criteria, using CT scans as the diagnostic standard for the diagnosis of burst fracture. Discriminant analysis correctly predicted the type of fracture in 88% of cases. Burst fractures, however, were almost as frequently misdiagnosed as being wedge compression fractures using this technique, compared with the reading of 25 films from patients without previous information. A quarter of the injuries would have been misdiagnosed had reliance been placed solely on the plain radiographs. CT scans of all patients with acute spinal compression fractures should be considered to decrease this potentially serious diagnostic error

As the surgical indications for total knee replacement (TKR) expand to include younger, heavier and more active patients, knowledge of the effect of these demographic variables on the outcome and survival of the implant is increasingly important. Between November 1986 and September 1990, 402 patients underwent 562 primary cemented cruciate-retaining TKRs carried out by a single surgical team. The overall results showed a survival of 96.8% at 14 years with 1.44% lost to follow-up. Evaluating the demographics of these patients showed that certain groups fared significantly less well. The best results were seen in non-obese women with osteoarthritis who were over 60 years of age in whom there was ten-year survival of 99.4%. The worst results were in obese men with osteoarthritis who were less than 60 years of age in whom there was a ten-year survival of 35.7%. Caution should be exercised when considering TKR on a patient with this combination of poor risk factors. By identifying demographic factors at the time of consultation the surgeon is better able to predict the survival of the TKR. This information is important when considering the best options for treatment of a patient and in providing accurate information during preoperative counselling

We assessed 882 patients presenting with a proximal femoral fracture by a new mobility score and by a mental test score, to determine which was of the most value in forecasting mortality at one year. Both scores gave a highly significant prediction, but the mobility score had a greater predictive value and is easier to perform

Our aim in this prospective radiological study was to determine whether the flexibility rate calculated from radiographs obtained during forced traction under general anaesthesia, was better than that of fulcrum-bending radiographs before corrective surgery in predicting the extent of the available correction in patients with idiopathic scoliosis. We evaluated 33 patients with a Cobb angle > 60° on a standing posteroanterior radiograph, who had been treated by posterior correction. Pre-operative standing fulcrum-bending radiographs and those with forced-traction under general anaesthesia were obtained. Post-operative standing radiographs were taken after surgical correction. The mean forced-traction flexibility rate was 55% (. sd. 11.3) which was significantly higher than the mean fulcrum-bending flexibility rate of 32% (. sd. 16.1) (p < 0.001). We found no correlation between either the forced-traction or fulcrum-bending flexibility rates and the correction rate post-operatively (p = 0.24 and p = 0.44, respectively). Radiographs obtained during forced traction under general anaesthesia were better at predicting the flexibility of the curve than fulcrum-bending radiographs in curves with a Cobb angle > 60° in the standing position and may identify those patients for whom supplementary anterior surgery can be avoided