Aims. The aim of this study was to assess whether supine flexibility predicts the likelihood of curve progression in patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) undergoing brace treatment. Methods. This was a retrospective analysis of patients with AIS prescribed with an underarm brace between September 2008 to April 2013 and followed up until 18 years of age or required surgery. Patients with structural proximal curves that preclude underarm bracing, those who were lost to follow-up, and those who had poor compliance to bracing (<16 hours a day) were excluded. The major curve Cobb angle, curve type, and location were measured on the pre-brace standing posteroanterior (PA) radiograph, supine whole spine radiograph, initial in-brace standing PA radiograph, and the post-brace weaning standing PA radiograph. Validation of the previous in-brace Cobb angle regression model was performed. The outcome of curve progression post-bracing was tested using a logistic regression model. The supine flexibility cut-off for curve progression was analyzed with receiver operating characteristic curve. Results. A total of 586 patients with mean age of 12.6 years (SD 1.2) remained for analysis after exclusion. The baseline Cobb angle was similar for thoracic major curves (31.6° (SD 3.8°)) and lumbar major curves (30.3° (SD 3.7°)). Curve progression was more common in the thoracic curves than lumbar curves with mean final Cobb angles of 40.5° (SD 12.5°) and 31.8° (SD 9.8°) respectively. This dataset matched the prediction model for in-brace Cobb angle with less mean absolute error in thoracic curves (0.61) as compared to lumbar curves (1.04). Reduced age and Risser stage, thoracic curves, increased pre-brace Cobb angle, and reduced correction and flexibility rates predicted increased likelihood of curve progression. Flexibility rate of more than 28% has likelihood of preventing curve progression with bracing. Conclusion. Supine radiographs provide satisfactory prediction for in-brace correction and post-bracing curve magnitude. The flexibility of the curve is a guide to determine the likelihood for brace success. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(2):254–260

Objectives. In this prospective cohort study, we investigated whether patient-specific finite element (FE) models can identify patients at risk of a pathological femoral fracture resulting from metastatic bone disease, and compared these FE predictions with clinical assessments by experienced clinicians. Methods. A total of 39 patients with non-fractured femoral metastatic lesions who were irradiated for pain were included from three radiotherapy institutes. During follow-up, nine pathological fractures occurred in seven patients. Quantitative CT-based FE models were generated for all patients. Femoral failure load was calculated and compared between the fractured and non-fractured femurs. Due to inter-scanner differences, patients were analyzed separately for the three institutes. In addition, the FE-based predictions were compared with fracture risk assessments by experienced clinicians. Results. In institute 1, median failure load was significantly lower for patients who sustained a fracture than for patients with no fractures. In institutes 2 and 3, the number of patients with a fracture was too low to make a clear distinction. Fracture locations were well predicted by the FE model when compared with post-fracture radiographs. The FE model was more accurate in identifying patients with a high fracture risk compared with experienced clinicians, with a sensitivity of 89% versus 0% to 33% for clinical assessments. Specificity was 79% for the FE models versus 84% to 95% for clinical assessments. Conclusion. FE models can be a valuable tool to improve clinical fracture risk predictions in metastatic bone disease. Future work in a larger patient population should confirm the higher predictive power of FE models compared with current clinical guidelines. Cite this article: F. Eggermont, L. C. Derikx, N. Verdonschot, I. C. M. van der Geest, M. A. A. de Jong, A. Snyers, Y. M. van der Linden, E. Tanck. Can patient-specific finite element models better predict fractures in metastatic bone disease than experienced clinicians? Towards computational modelling in daily clinical practice. Bone Joint Res 2018;7:430–439. DOI: 10.1302/2046-3758.76.BJR-2017-0325.R2

Aims. The lateral centre-edge angle (LCEA) is a plain radiological measure of superolateral cover of the femoral head. This study aims to establish the correlation between 2D radiological and 3D CT measurements of acetabular morphology, and to describe the relationship between LCEA and femoral head cover (FHC). Methods. This retrospective study included 353 periacetabular osteotomies (PAOs) performed between January 2014 and December 2017. Overall, 97 hips in 75 patients had 3D analysis by Clinical Graphics, giving measurements for LCEA, acetabular index (AI), and FHC. Roentgenographical LCEA, AI, posterior wall index (PWI), and anterior wall index (AWI) were measured from supine AP pelvis radiographs. The correlation between CT and roentgenographical measurements was calculated. Sequential multiple linear regression was performed to determine the relationship between roentgenographical measurements and CT FHC. Results. CT-measured LCEA and AI correlated strongly with roentgenographical LCEA (r = 0.92; p < 0.001) and AI (r = 0.83; p < 0.001). Radiological LCEA correlated very strongly with CT FHC (r = 0.92; p < 0.001). The sum of AWI and PWI also correlated strongly with CTFHC (r = 0.73; p < 0.001). CT measurements of LCEA and AI were 3.4° less and 2.3° greater than radiological LCEA and AI measures. There was a linear relation between radiological LCEA and CT FHC. The linear regression model statistically significantly predicted FHC from LCEA, F(1,96) = 545.1 (p < 0.001), adjusted R. 2. = 85.0%, with the prediction equation: CT FHC(%) = 42.1 + 0.77(XRLCEA). Conclusion. CT and roentgenographical measurement of acetabular parameters are comparable. Currently, a radiological LCEA greater than 25° is considered normal. This study demonstrates that those with hip pain and normal radiological acetabular parameters may still have deficiencies in FHC. More sophisticated imaging techniques such as 3D CT should be considered for those with hip pain to identify deficiencies in FHC. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(1):12–19

Aims. To devise a method to quantify and optimize tightness when inserting cortical screws, based on bone characterization and screw geometry. Methods. Cortical human cadaveric diaphyseal tibiae screw holes (n = 20) underwent destructive testing to firstly establish the relationship between cortical thickness and experimental stripping torque (T. str. ), and secondly to calibrate an equation to predict T. str. Using the equation’s predictions, 3.5 mm screws were inserted (n = 66) to targeted torques representing 40% to 100% of T. str. , with recording of compression generated during tightening. Once the target torque had been achieved, immediate pullout testing was performed. Results. Cortical thickness predicted T. str. (R. 2. = 0.862; p < 0.001) as did an equation based on tensile yield stress, bone-screw friction coefficient, and screw geometries (R. 2. = 0.894; p < 0.001). Compression increased with screw tightness up to 80% of the maximum (R. 2. = 0.495; p < 0.001). Beyond 80%, further tightening generated no increase in compression. Pullout force did not change with variations in submaximal tightness beyond 40% of T. str. (R. 2. = 0.014; p = 0.175). Conclusion. Screw tightening between 70% and 80% of the predicted maximum generated optimum compression and pullout forces. Further tightening did not considerably increase compression, made no difference to pullout, and increased the risk of the screw holes being stripped. While further work is needed for development of intraoperative methods for accurate and reliable prediction of the maximum tightness for a screw, this work justifies insertion torque being considerably below the maximum. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2020;9(8):493–500

Aims. The number of convolutional neural networks (CNN) available for fracture detection and classification is rapidly increasing. External validation of a CNN on a temporally separate (separated by time) or geographically separate (separated by location) dataset is crucial to assess generalizability of the CNN before application to clinical practice in other institutions. We aimed to answer the following questions: are current CNNs for fracture recognition externally valid?; which methods are applied for external validation (EV)?; and, what are reported performances of the EV sets compared to the internal validation (IV) sets of these CNNs?. Methods. The PubMed and Embase databases were systematically searched from January 2010 to October 2020 according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement. The type of EV, characteristics of the external dataset, and diagnostic performance characteristics on the IV and EV datasets were collected and compared. Quality assessment was conducted using a seven-item checklist based on a modified Methodologic Index for NOn-Randomized Studies instrument (MINORS). Results. Out of 1,349 studies, 36 reported development of a CNN for fracture detection and/or classification. Of these, only four (11%) reported a form of EV. One study used temporal EV, one conducted both temporal and geographical EV, and two used geographical EV. When comparing the CNN’s performance on the IV set versus the EV set, the following were found: AUCs of 0.967 (IV) versus 0.975 (EV), 0.976 (IV) versus 0.985 to 0.992 (EV), 0.93 to 0.96 (IV) versus 0.80 to 0.89 (EV), and F1-scores of 0.856 to 0.863 (IV) versus 0.757 to 0.840 (EV). Conclusion. The number of externally validated CNNs in orthopaedic trauma for fracture recognition is still scarce. This greatly limits the potential for transfer of these CNNs from the developing institute to another hospital to achieve similar diagnostic performance. We recommend the use of geographical EV and statements such as the Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials–Artificial Intelligence (CONSORT-AI), the Standard Protocol Items: Recommendations for Interventional Trials–Artificial Intelligence (SPIRIT-AI) and the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis–Machine Learning (TRIPOD-ML) to critically appraise performance of CNNs and improve methodological rigor, quality of future models, and facilitate eventual implementation in clinical practice. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(10):879–885

Aims. Intra-articular (IA) tumours around the knee are treated with extra-articular (EA) resection, which is associated with poor functional outcomes. We aim to evaluate the accuracy of MRI in predicting IA involvement around the knee. Methods. We identified 63 cases of high-grade sarcomas in or around the distal femur that underwent an EA resection from a prospectively maintained database (January 1996 to April 2020). Suspicion of IA disease was noted in 52 cases, six had IA pathological fracture, two had an effusion, two had prior surgical intervention (curettage/IA intervention), and one had an osseous metastasis in the proximal tibia. To ascertain validity, two musculoskeletal radiologists (R1, R2) reviewed the preoperative imaging (MRI) of 63 consecutive cases on two occasions six weeks apart. The radiological criteria for IA disease comprised evidence of tumour extension within the suprapatellar pouch, intercondylar notch, extension along medial/lateral retinaculum, and presence of IA fracture. The radiological predictions were then confirmed with the final histopathology of the resected specimens. Results. The resection histology revealed 23 cases (36.5%) showing IA disease involvement compared with 40 cases without (62%). The intraobserver variability of R1 was 0.85 (p < 0.001) compared to R2 with κ = 0.21 (p = 0.007). The interobserver variability was κ = 0.264 (p = 0.003). Knee effusion was found to be the most sensitive indicator of IA involvement, with a sensitivity of 91.3% but specificity of only 35%. However, when combined with a pathological fracture, this rose to 97.5% and 100% when disease was visible in Hoffa’s fat pad. Conclusion. MRI imaging can sometimes overestimate IA joint involvement and needs to be correlated with clinical signs. In the light of our findings, we would recommend EA resections when imaging shows effusion combined with either disease in Hoffa’s fat pad or retinaculum, or pathological fractures. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(6):696–701

Aims. Excessive posterior pelvic tilt (PT) may increase the risk of anterior instability after total hip arthroplasty (THA). The aim of this study was to investigate the changes in PT occurring from the preoperative supine to postoperative standing position following THA, and identify factors associated with significant changes in PT. Methods. Supine PT was measured on preoperative CT scans and standing PT was measured on preoperative and one-year postoperative standing lateral radiographs in 933 patients who underwent primary THA. Negative values indicate posterior PT. Patients with > 13° of posterior PT from preoperative supine to postoperative standing (ΔPT ≤ -13°) radiographs, which corresponds to approximately a 10° increase in functional anteversion of the acetabular component, were compared with patients with less change (ΔPT > -13°). Logistic regression analysis was used to assess preoperative demographic and spinopelvic parameters predictive of PT changes of ≤ -13°. The area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) determined the diagnostic accuracy of the predictive factors. Results. PT changed from a mean of 3.8° (SD 6.0°)) preoperatively to -3.5° (SD 6.9°) postoperatively, a mean change of -7.4 (SD 4.5°; p < 0.001). A total of 95 patients (10.2%) had ≤ -13° change in PT from preoperative supine to postoperative standing. The strongest predictive preoperative factors of large changes in PT (≤ -13°) from preoperative supine to postoperative standing were a large posterior change in PT from supine to standing, increased supine PT, and decreased standing PT (p < 0.001). Flexed-seated PT (p = 0.006) and female sex (p = 0.045) were weaker significant predictive factors. When including all predictive factors, the accuracy of the AUC prediction was 84.9%, with 83.5% sensitivity and 71.2% specificity. Conclusion. A total of 10% of patients had > 13° of posterior PT postoperatively compared with their supine pelvic position, resulting in an increased functional anteversion of > 10°. The strongest predictive factors of changes in postoperative PT were the preoperative supine-to-standing differences, the anterior supine PT, and the posterior standing PT. Surgeons who introduce the acetabular component with the patient supine using an anterior approach should be aware of the potentially large increase in functional anteversion occurring in these patients. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(3 Supple A):74–80

Aims. The use of technology to assess balance and alignment during total knee surgery can provide an overload of numerical data to the surgeon. Meanwhile, this quantification holds the potential to clarify and guide the surgeon through the surgical decision process when selecting the appropriate bone recut or soft tissue adjustment when balancing a total knee. Therefore, this paper evaluates the potential of deploying supervised machine learning (ML) models to select a surgical correction based on patient-specific intra-operative assessments. Methods. Based on a clinical series of 479 primary total knees and 1,305 associated surgical decisions, various ML models were developed. These models identified the indicated surgical decision based on available, intra-operative alignment, and tibiofemoral load data. Results. With an associated area under the receiver-operator curve ranging between 0.75 and 0.98, the optimized ML models resulted in good to excellent predictions. The best performing model used a random forest approach while considering both alignment and intra-articular load readings. Conclusion. The presented model has the potential to make experience available to surgeons adopting new technology, bringing expert opinion in their operating theatre, but also provides insight in the surgical decision process. More specifically, these promising outcomes indicated the relevance of considering the overall limb alignment in the coronal and sagittal plane to identify the appropriate surgical decision

Aims. Accurate estimations of the risk of fracture due to metastatic bone disease in the femur is essential in order to avoid both under-treatment and over-treatment of patients with an impending pathological fracture. The purpose of the current retrospective in vivo study was to use CT-based finite element analyses (CTFEA) to identify a clear quantitative differentiating factor between patients who are at imminent risk of fracturing their femur and those who are not, and to identify the exact location of maximal weakness where the fracture is most likely to occur. Methods. Data were collected on 82 patients with femoral metastatic bone disease, 41 of whom did not undergo prophylactic fixation. A total of 15 had a pathological fracture within six months following the CT scan, and 26 were fracture-free during the five months following the scan. The Mirels score and strain fold ratio (SFR) based on CTFEA was computed for all patients. A SFR value of 1.48 was used as the threshold for a pathological fracture. The sensitivity, specificity, positive, and negative predicted values for Mirels score and SFR predictions were computed for nine patients who fractured and 24 who did not, as well as a comparison of areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC of the ROC curves). Results. The sensitivity of SFR was 100% compared with 88% for the Mirels score, and the specificity of SFR was 67% compared with 38% for the Mirels score. The AUC was 0.905 for SFR compared with 0.578 for the Mirels score (p = 0.008). Conclusion. All the patients who sustained a pathological fracture of the femur had an SFR of > 1.48. CTFEA was far better at predicting the risk of fracture and its location accurately compared with the Mirels score. CTFEA is quick and automated and can be incorporated into the protocol of CT scanners. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(5):638–645

Aims. In computer simulations, the shape of the range of motion (ROM) of a stem with a cylindrical neck design will be a perfect cone. However, many modern stems have rectangular/oval-shaped necks. We hypothesized that the rectangular/oval stem neck will affect the shape of the ROM and the prosthetic impingement. Methods. Total hip arthroplasty (THA) motion while standing and sitting was simulated using a MATLAB model (one stem with a cylindrical neck and one stem with a rectangular neck). The primary predictor was the geometry of the neck (cylindrical vs rectangular) and the main outcome was the shape of ROM based on the prosthetic impingement between the neck and the liner. The secondary outcome was the difference in the ROM provided by each neck geometry and the effect of the pelvic tilt on this ROM. Multiple regression was used to analyze the data. Results. The stem with a rectangular neck has increased internal and external rotation with a quatrefoil cross-section compared to a cone in a cylindrical neck. Modification of the cup orientation and pelvic tilt affected the direction of projection of the cone or quatrefoil shape. The mean increase in internal rotation with a rectangular neck was 3.4° (0° to 7.9°; p < 0.001); for external rotation, it was 2.8° (0.5° to 7.8°; p < 0.001). Conclusion. Our study shows the importance of attention to femoral implant design for the assessment of prosthetic impingement. Any universal mathematical model or computer simulation that ignores each stem’s unique neck geometry will provide inaccurate predictions of prosthetic impingement. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2021;10(12):780–789

Aims. A comprehensive classification for coronal lower limb alignment with predictive capabilities for knee balance would be beneficial in total knee arthroplasty (TKA). This paper describes the Coronal Plane Alignment of the Knee (CPAK) classification and examines its utility in preoperative soft tissue balance prediction, comparing kinematic alignment (KA) to mechanical alignment (MA). Methods. A radiological analysis of 500 healthy and 500 osteoarthritic (OA) knees was used to assess the applicability of the CPAK classification. CPAK comprises nine phenotypes based on the arithmetic HKA (aHKA) that estimates constitutional limb alignment and joint line obliquity (JLO). Intraoperative balance was compared within each phenotype in a cohort of 138 computer-assisted TKAs randomized to KA or MA. Primary outcomes included descriptive analyses of healthy and OA groups per CPAK type, and comparison of balance at 10° of flexion within each type. Secondary outcomes assessed balance at 45° and 90° and bone recuts required to achieve final knee balance within each CPAK type. Results. There was similar frequency distribution between healthy and arthritic groups across all CPAK types. The most common categories were Type II (39.2% healthy vs 32.2% OA), Type I (26.4% healthy vs 19.4% OA) and Type V (15.4% healthy vs 14.6% OA). CPAK Types VII, VIII, and IX were rare in both populations. Across all CPAK types, a greater proportion of KA TKAs achieved optimal balance compared to MA. This effect was largest, and statistically significant, in CPAK Types I (100% KA vs 15% MA; p < 0.001), Type II (78% KA vs 46% MA; p = 0.018). and Type IV (89% KA vs 0% MA; p < 0.001). Conclusion. CPAK is a pragmatic, comprehensive classification for coronal knee alignment, based on constitutional alignment and JLO, that can be used in healthy and arthritic knees. CPAK identifies which knee phenotypes may benefit most from KA when optimization of soft tissue balance is prioritized. Further, it will allow for consistency of reporting in future studies. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(2):329–337

The application of robotics in the operating theatre for knee arthroplasty remains controversial. As with all new technology, the introduction of new systems might be associated with a learning curve. However, guidelines on how to assess the introduction of robotics in the operating theatre are lacking. This systematic review aims to evaluate the current evidence on the learning curve of robot-assisted knee arthroplasty. An extensive literature search of PubMed, Medline, Embase, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library was conducted. Randomized controlled trials, comparative studies, and cohort studies were included. Outcomes assessed included: time required for surgery, stress levels of the surgical team, complications in regard to surgical experience level or time needed for surgery, size prediction of preoperative templating, and alignment according to the number of knee arthroplasties performed. A total of 11 studies met the inclusion criteria. Most were of medium to low quality. The operating time of robot-assisted total knee arthroplasty (TKA) and unicompartmental knee arthroplasty (UKA) is associated with a learning curve of between six to 20 cases and six to 36 cases respectively. Surgical team stress levels show a learning curve of seven cases in TKA and six cases for UKA. Experience with the robotic systems did not influence implant positioning, preoperative planning, and postoperative complications. Robot-assisted TKA and UKA is associated with a learning curve regarding operating time and surgical team stress levels. Future evaluation of robotics in the operating theatre should include detailed measurement of the various aspects of the total operating time, including total robotic time and time needed for preoperative planning. The prior experience of the surgical team should also be evaluated and reported. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(4):407–413

Aims. An algorithm to determine the constitutional alignment of the lower limb once arthritic deformity has occurred would be of value when undertaking kinematically aligned total knee arthroplasty (TKA). The purpose of this study was to determine if the arithmetic hip-knee-ankle angle (aHKA) algorithm could estimate the constitutional alignment of the lower limb following development of significant arthritis. Methods. A matched-pairs radiological study was undertaken comparing the aHKA of an osteoarthritic knee (aHKA-OA) with the mechanical HKA of the contralateral normal knee (mHKA-N). Patients with Grade 3 or 4 Kellgren-Lawrence tibiofemoral osteoarthritis in an arthritic knee undergoing TKA and Grade 0 or 1 osteoarthritis in the contralateral normal knee were included. The aHKA algorithm subtracts the lateral distal femoral angle (LDFA) from the medial proximal tibial angle (MPTA) measured on standing long leg radiographs. The primary outcome was the mean of the paired differences in the aHKA-OA and mHKA-N. Secondary outcomes included comparison of sex-based differences and capacity of the aHKA to determine the constitutional alignment based on degree of deformity. Results. A total of 51 radiographs met the inclusion criteria. There was no significant difference between aHKA-OA and mHKA-N, with a mean angular difference of −0.4° (95% SE −0.8° to 0.1°; p = 0.16). There was no significant sex-based difference when comparing aHKA-OA and mHKA-N (mean difference 0.8°; p = 0.11). Knees with deformities of more than 8° had a greater mean difference between aHKA-OA and mHKA-N (1.3°) than those with lesser deformities (-0.1°; p = 0.009). Conclusion. This study supports the arithmetic HKA algorithm for prediction of the constitutional alignment once arthritis has developed. The algorithm has similar accuracy between sexes and greater accuracy with lesser degrees of deformity. Cite this article: Bone Joint Open 2020;1-7:339–345

Objectives. The aim of this study was to provide a comprehensive understanding of alterations in messenger RNAs (mRNAs), long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs), and circular RNAs (circRNAs) in cartilage affected by osteoarthritis (OA). Methods. The expression profiles of mRNAs, lncRNAs, and circRNAs in OA cartilage were assessed using whole-transcriptome sequencing. Bioinformatics analyses included prediction and reannotation of novel lncRNAs and circRNAs, their classification, and their placement into subgroups. Gene ontology and pathway analysis were performed to identify differentially expressed genes (DEGs), differentially expressed lncRNAs (DELs), and differentially expressed circRNAs (DECs). We focused on the overlap of DEGs and targets of DELs previously identified in seven high-throughput studies. The top ten DELs were verified by quantitative reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) in articular chondrocytes, both in vitro and in vivo. Results. In total, 739 mRNAs, 1152 lncRNAs, and 42 circRNAs were found to be differentially expressed in OA cartilage tissue. Among these, we identified 18 overlapping DEGs and targets of DELs, and the top ten DELs were screened by expression profile analysis as candidate OA-related genes. WISP2, ATF3, and CHI3L1 were significantly increased in both normal versus OA tissues and normal versus interleukin (IL)-1β-induced OA-like cell models, while ADAM12, PRELP, and ASPN were shown to be significantly decreased. Among the identified DELs, we observed higher expression of ENST00000453554 and MSTRG.99593.3, and lower expression of MSTRG.44186.2 and NONHSAT186094.1 in normal versus OA cells and tissues. Conclusion. This study revealed expression patterns of coding and noncoding RNAs in OA cartilage, which added sets of genes and noncoding RNAs to the list of candidate diagnostic biomarkers and therapeutic agents for OA patients. Cite this article: H. Li, H. H. Yang, Z. G. Sun, H. B. Tang, J. K. Min. Whole-transcriptome sequencing of knee joint cartilage from osteoarthritis patients. Bone Joint Res 2019;8:290–303. DOI: 10.1302/2046-3758.87.BJR-2018-0297.R1

Aims. The early mortality in patients with hip fractures from bony metastases is unknown. The objectives of this study were to quantify 30- and 90-day mortality in patients with proximal femoral metastases, and to create a mortality prediction tool based on biomarkers associated with early death. Methods. This was a retrospective cohort study of consecutive patients referred to the orthopaedic department at a UK trauma centre with a proximal femoral metastasis (PFM) over a seven-year period (2010 to 2016). The study group were compared to a matched control group of non-metastatic hip fractures. Minimum follow-up was one year. Results. There was a 90-day mortality of 46% in patients with metastatic hip fractures versus 12% in controls (89/195 and 24/192, respectively; p < 0.001). Mean time to surgery was longer in symptomatic metastases versus complete fractures (9.5 days (SD 19.8) and 3.4 days (SD 11.4), respectively; p < 0.05). Albumin, urea, and corrected calcium were all independent predictors of early mortality and were used to generate a simple tool for predicting 90-day mortality, titled the Metastatic Early Prognostic (MEP) score. An MEP score of 0 was associated with the lowest risk of death at 30 days (14%, 3/21), 90 days (19%, 4/21), and one year (62%, 13/21). MEP scores of 3/4 were associated with the highest risk of death at 30 days (56%, 5/9), 90 days (100%, 9/9), and one year (100%, 9/9). Neither age nor primary cancer diagnosis was an independent predictor of mortality at 30 and 90 days. Conclusion. This score could be used to predict early mortality and guide perioperative counselling. The delay to surgery identifies a potential window to intervene and correct these abnormalities with the aim of improving survival. Cite this article: Bone Joint J. 2020;102-B(1):72–81

Aims. The aim of this study was to determine the influence of developmental spinal stenosis (DSS) on the risk of re-operation at an adjacent level. Patients and Methods. This was a retrospective study of 235 consecutive patients who had undergone decompression-only surgery for lumbar spinal stenosis and had a minimum five-year follow-up. There were 106 female patients (45.1%) and 129 male patients (54.9%), with a mean age at surgery of 66.8 years (. sd. 11.3). We excluded those with adult deformity and spondylolisthesis. Presenting symptoms, levels operated on initially and at re-operation were studied. MRI measurements included the anteroposterior diameter of the bony spinal canal, the degree of disc degeneration, and the thickness of the ligamentum flavum. DSS was defined by comparative measurements of the bony spinal canal. Risk factors for re-operation at the adjacent level were determined and included in a multivariate stepwise logistic regression for prediction modelling. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals were calculated. Results. Of the 235 patients, 21.7% required re-operation at an adjacent segment. Re-operation at an adjacent segment was associated with DSS (p = 0.026), the number of levels decompressed (p = 0.008), and age at surgery (p = 0.013). Multivariate regression model (p < 0.001) controlled for other confounders showed that DSS was a significant predictor of re-operation at an adjacent segment, with an adjusted OR of 3.93. Conclusion. Patients with DSS who have undergone lumbar spinal decompression are 3.9 times more likely to undergo future surgery at an adjacent level. This is a poor prognostic indicator that can be identified prior to index decompression surgery

Total knee arthroplasty (TKA) and total hip arthroplasty (THA) are recognised and proven interventions for patients with advanced arthritis. Studies to date have demonstrated a steady increase in the requirement for primary and revision procedures. Projected estimates made for the United States show that by 2030 the demand for primary TKA will grow by 673% and for revision TKA by 601% from the level in 2005. For THA the projected estimates are 174% and 137% for primary and revision surgery, respectively. The purpose of this study was to see if those predictions were similar for England and Wales using data from the National Joint Registry and the Office of National Statistics. . Analysis of data for England and Wales suggest that by 2030, the volume of primary and revision TKAs will have increased by 117% and 332%, respectively between 2012 and 2030. The data for the United States translates to a 306% cumulative rate of increase between 2012 and 2030 for revision surgery, which is similar to our predictions for England and Wales. . The predictions from the United States for primary TKA were similar to our upper limit projections. For THA, we predicted an increase of 134% and 31% for primary and revision hip surgery, respectively. Our model has limitations, however, it highlights the economic burden of arthroplasty in the future in England and Wales as a real and unaddressed problem. This will have significant implications for the provision of health care and the management of orthopaedic services in the future. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2015;97-B:1076–1081

Objectives. Unicompartmental knee arthroplasty (UKA) is an alternative to total knee arthroplasty for patients who require treatment of single-compartment osteoarthritis, especially for young patients. To satisfy this requirement, new patient-specific prosthetic designs have been introduced. The patient-specific UKA is designed on the basis of data from preoperative medical images. In general, knee implant design with increased conformity has been developed to provide lower contact stress and reduced wear on the tibial insert compared with flat knee designs. The different tibiofemoral conformity may provide designers the opportunity to address both wear and kinematic design goals simultaneously. The aim of this study was to evaluate wear prediction with respect to tibiofemoral conformity design in patient-specific UKA under gait loading conditions by using a previously validated computational wear method. Methods. Three designs with different conformities were developed with the same femoral component: a flat design normally used in fixed-bearing UKA, a tibia plateau anatomy mimetic (AM) design, and an increased conforming design. We investigated the kinematics, contact stress, contact area, wear rate, and volumetric wear of the three different tibial insert designs. Results. Conforming increased design showed a lower contact stress and increased contact area. In addition, increased conformity resulted in a reduction of the wear rate and volumetric wear. However, the increased conformity design showed limited kinematics. Conclusion. Our results indicated that increased conformity provided improvements in wear but resulted in limited kinematics. Therefore, increased conformity should be avoided in fixed-bearing patient-specific UKA design. We recommend a flat or plateau AM tibial insert design in patient-specific UKA. Cite this article: Y-G. Koh, K-M. Park, H-Y. Lee, K-T. Kang. Influence of tibiofemoral congruency design on the wear of patient-specific unicompartmental knee arthroplasty using finite element analysis. Bone Joint Res 2019;8:156–164. DOI: 10.1302/2046-3758.83.BJR-2018-0193.R1

Objectives. Opening wedge high tibial osteotomy (HTO) is an established surgical procedure for the treatment of early-stage knee arthritis. Other than infection, the majority of complications are related to mechanical factors – in particular, stimulation of healing at the osteotomy site. This study used finite element (FE) analysis to investigate the effect of plate design and bridging span on interfragmentary movement (IFM) and the influence of fracture healing on plate stress and potential failure. Materials and Methods. A 10° opening wedge HTO was created in a composite tibia. Imaging and strain gauge data were used to create and validate FE models. Models of an intact tibia and a tibia implanted with a custom HTO plate using two different bridging spans were validated against experimental data. Physiological muscle forces and different stages of osteotomy gap healing simulating up to six weeks postoperatively were then incorporated. Predictions of plate stress and IFM for the custom plate were compared against predictions for an industry standard plate (TomoFix). Results. For both plate types, long spans increased IFM but did not substantially alter peak plate stress. The custom plate increased axial and shear IFM values by up to 24% and 47%, respectively, compared with the TomoFix. In all cases, a callus stiffness of 528 MPa was required to reduce plate stress below the fatigue strength of titanium alloy. Conclusion. We demonstrate that larger bridging spans in opening wedge HTO increase IFM without substantially increasing plate stress. The results indicate, however, that callus healing is required to prevent fatigue failure. Cite this article: A. R. MacLeod, G. Serrancoli, B. J. Fregly, A. D. Toms, H. S. Gill. The effect of plate design, bridging span, and fracture healing on the performance of high tibial osteotomy plates: An experimental and finite element study. Bone Joint Res 2018;7:639–649. DOI: 10.1302/2046-3758.712.BJR-2018-0035.R1

Objectives. The aim of this study was to review the current evidence and future application for the role of diagnostic and therapeutic ultrasound in fracture management. Methods. A review of relevant literature was undertaken, including articles indexed in PubMed with keywords “ultrasound” or “sonography” combined with “diagnosis”, “fracture healing”, “impaired fracture healing”, “nonunion”, “microbiology”, and “fracture-related infection”. Results. The use of ultrasound in musculoskeletal medicine has expanded rapidly over the last two decades, but the diagnostic use in fracture management is not routinely practised. Early studies have shown the potential of ultrasound as a valid alternative to radiographs to diagnose common paediatric fractures, to detect occult injuries in adults, and for rapid detection of long bone fractures in the resuscitation setting. Ultrasound has also been shown to be advantageous in the early identification of impaired fracture healing; with the advent of 3D image processing, there is potential for wider adoption. Detection of implant-related infection can be improved by ultrasound mediated sonication of microbiology samples. The use of therapeutic ultrasound to promote union in the management of acute fractures is currently a controversial topic. However, there is strong in vitro evidence that ultrasound can stimulate a biological effect with potential clinical benefit in established nonunions, which supports the need for further investigation. Conclusion. Modern ultrasound image processing has the potential to replace traditional imaging modalities in several areas of trauma practice, particularly in the early prediction of impaired fracture healing. Further understanding of the therapeutic application of ultrasound is required to understand and identify the use in promoting fracture healing. Cite this article: J. A. Nicholson, S. T. J. Tsang, T. J. MacGillivray, F. Perks, A. H. R. W. Simpson. What is the role of ultrasound in fracture management? Diagnosis and therapeutic potential for fractures, delayed unions, and fracture-related infection. Bone Joint Res 2019;8:304–312. DOI: 10.1302/2046-3758.87.BJR-2018-0215.R2