In 1988 we reported a ten-year review of 83 surviving patients from a group of 135 (146 prostheses) who had undergone primary hip replacement using the Stanmore prosthesis. We have now reviewed 44 of these patients at 15 to 16 years. Four patients had undergone revision, but the other 40 were all satisfied with the result of their hip replacement, 36 having little or no pain. Functional activities had decreased, but were still adequate for their average age of 81 years. There had been definite migration of the cup and/or femoral component in three hips, wear of the cup in ten and resorption of the calcar in six. Of the 24 hips inserted with radiopaque cement, eight showed an increase in radiolucent lines at the acetabular interface. The cumulative survival rate of the prosthesis was 91% at 15 to 16 years.

We describe a new method for the accurate measurement of the angle of anteversion of an acetabular cup from standard anteroposterior radiographs, and provide the conversion tables required. The effect of the centering of the radiograph is discussed and a method of distinguishing between anteversion and retroversion by using a caudally directed x-ray beam is described.

Aims. Taper corrosion has been widely reported to be problematic for modular total hip arthroplasty implants. A simple and systematic method to evaluate taper damage with sufficient resolution is needed. We introduce a semiquantitative grading system for modular femoral tapers to characterize taper corrosion damage. Methods. After examining a unique collection of retrieved cobalt-chromium (CoCr) taper sleeves (n = 465) using the widely-used Goldberg system, we developed an expanded six-point visual grading system intended to characterize the severity, visible material loss, and absence of direct component contact due to corrosion. Female taper sleeve damage was evaluated by three blinded observers using the Goldberg scoring system and the expanded system. A subset (n = 85) was then re-evaluated following destructive cleaning, using both scoring systems. Material loss for this subset was quantified using metrology and correlated with both scoring systems. Results. There was substantial agreement in grading among all three observers with uncleaned (n = 465) and with the subset of cleaned (n = 85) implants. The expanded scoring criteria provided a wider distribution of scores which ultimately correlated well with corrosion material loss. Cleaning changed the average scores marginally using the Goldberg criteria (p = 0.290); however, using the VGS, approximately 40% of the scores for all observers changed, increasing the average score from 4.24 to 4.35 (p = 0.002). There was a strong correlation between measured material loss and new grading scores. Conclusion. The expanded scoring criteria provided a wider distribution of scores which ultimately correlated well with corrosion material loss. This system provides potential advantages for assessing taper damage without requiring specialized imaging devices. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2023;12(3):155–164

Aims. Highly cross-linked polyethylene (HXLPE) greatly reduces wear in total hip arthroplasty, compared to conventional polyethylene (CPE). Cross-linking is commonly achieved by irradiation. This study aimed to compare the degree of cross-linking and in vitro wear rates across a cohort of retrieved and unused polyethylene cups/liners from various brands. Methods. Polyethylene acetabular cups/liners were collected at one centre from 1 April 2021 to 30 April 2022. The trans-vinylene index (TVI) and oxidation index (OI) were determined by Fourier-transform infrared spectrometry. Wear was measured using a pin-on-disk test. Results. A total of 47 specimens from ten brands were included. The TVI was independent of time in vivo. A linear correlation (R. 2. = 0.995) was observed between the old and current TVI standards, except for vitamin E-containing polyethylene. The absorbed irradiation dose calculated from the TVI corresponded to product specifications for all but two products. For one electron beam-irradiated HXLPE, a mean dose of 241% (SD 18%) of specifications was determined. For another, gamma-irradiated HXLPE, a mean 41% (SD 13%) of specifications was determined. Lower wear was observed for higher TVI. Conclusion. The TVI is a reliable measure of the absorbed irradiation dose and does not alter over time in vivo. The products of various brands differ by manufacturing details and consequently cross-linking characteristics. Absorption and penetration of electron radiation and gamma radiation differ, potentially leading to higher degrees of cross-linking for electron radiation. There is a non-linear, inverse correlation between TVI and in vitro wear. The wear resistance of the HXLPE with low TVI was reduced and more comparable to CPE. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2024;13(11):682–693

Aims. Patients with a high comorbidity burden (HCB) can achieve similar improvements in quality of life compared with low-risk patients, but greater morbidity may deter surgeons from operating on these patients. Whether surgeon volume influences total hip arthroplasty (THA) outcomes in HCB patients has not been investigated. This study aimed to compare complication rates and implant survivorship in HCB patients operated on by high-volume (HV) and non-HV THA surgeons. Methods. Patients with Charlson Comorbidity Index ≥ 5 and American Society of Anesthesiologists grade of III or IV, undergoing primary elective THA between January 2013 and December 2021, were retrospectively reviewed. Patients were separated into groups based on whether they were operated on by a HV surgeon (defined as the top 25% of surgeons at our institution by number of primary THAs per year) or a non-HV surgeon. Groups were propensity-matched 1:1 to control for demographic variables. A total of 1,134 patients were included in the matched analysis. Between groups, 90-day readmissions and revisions were compared, and Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to evaluate implant survivorship within the follow-up period. Results. Years of experience were comparable between non-HV and HV surgeons (p = 0.733). The HV group had significantly shorter surgical times (p < 0.001) and shorter length of stay (p = 0.009) than the non-HV group. The HV group also had significantly fewer 90-day readmissions (p = 0.030), all-cause revisions (p = 0.023), and septic revisions (p = 0.020) compared with the non-HV group at latest follow-up. The HV group had significantly greater freedom from all-cause (p = 0.023) and septic revision (p = 0.020) than the non-HV group. Conclusion. The HCB THA patients have fewer 90-day readmissions, all-cause revisions, and septic revisions, as well as shorter length of stay when treated by HV surgeons. THA candidates with a HCB may benefit from referral to HV surgeons to reduce procedural risk and improve postoperative outcomes. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(3 Supple A):10–16

Aims. The aim of this study was to compare the pattern of initial fixation and changes in periprosthetic bone mineral density (BMD) between patients who underwent total hip arthroplasty (THA) using a traditional fully hydroxyapatite (HA)-coated stem (T-HA group) and those with a newly introduced fully HA-coated stem (N-HA group). Methods. The study included 36 patients with T-HA stems and 30 with N-HA stems. Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry was used to measure the change in periprosthetic BMD, one and two years postoperatively. The 3D contact between the stem and femoral cortical bone was evaluated using a density-mapping system, and clinical assessment, including patient-reported outcome measurements, was recorded. Results. There were significantly larger contact areas in Gruen zones 3, 5, and 6 in the N-HA group than in the T-HA group. At two years postoperatively, there was a significant decrease in BMD around the proximal-medial femur (zone 6) in the N-HA group and a significant increase in the T-HA group. BMD changes in both groups correlated with BMI or preoperative lumbar BMD rather than with the extent of contact with the femoral cortical bone. Conclusion. The N-HA-coated stem showed a significantly larger contact area, indicating a distal fixation pattern, compared with the traditional fully HA-coated stem. The T-HA-coated stem showed better preservation of periprosthetic BMD, two years postoperatively. Surgeons should consider these patterns of fixation and differences in BMD when selecting fully HA-coated stems for THA, to improve the long-term outcomes. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(6):548–554

Aims. Our primary aim was to assess reoperation-free survival at one year after the index injury in patients aged ≥ 75 years treated with internal fixation (IF) or arthroplasty for undisplaced femoral neck fractures (uFNFs). Secondary outcomes were reoperations and mortality analyzed separately. Methods. We retrieved data on all patients aged ≥ 75 years with an uFNF registered in the Swedish Fracture Register from 2011 to 2018. The database was linked to the Swedish Arthroplasty Register and the National Patient Register to obtain information on comorbidity, mortality, and reoperations. Our primary outcome, reoperation, or death at one year was analyzed using restricted mean survival time, which gives the mean time to either event for each group separately. Results. Overall, 3,909 patients presenting with uFNFs were included. Of these patients, 3,604 were treated with IF and 305 with primary arthroplasty. There were no relevant differences in age, sex, or comorbidities between groups. In the IF group 58% received cannulated screws and 39% hook pins. In the arthroplasty group 81% were treated with hemiarthroplasty and 19% with total hip arthroplasty. At one year, 32% were dead or had been reoperated in both groups. The reoperation-free survival time over one year of follow-up was 288 days (95% confidence interval (CI) 284 to 292) in the IF group and 279 days (95% CI 264 to 295) in the arthroplasty group, with p = 0.305 for the difference. Mortality was 26% in the IF group and 31% in the arthroplasty group at one year. Reoperation rates were 7.1% in the IF group and 2.3% in the arthroplasty group. Conclusion. In older patients with a uFNF, reoperation-free survival at one year seems similar, regardless of whether IF or arthroplasty is the primary surgery. However, this comparison depends on the choice of follow-up time in that reoperations were more common after IF. In contrast, we found more early deaths after arthroplasty. Our study calls for a randomized trial comparing these two methods. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(2):86–92

Aims. Arthroplasty has been shown to generate the most waste among all orthopaedic subspecialties, and it is estimated that hip and knee arthroplasty generate in excess of three million kg of waste annually in the UK. Infectious waste generates up to ten times more CO2 compared with recycled waste, and previous studies have shown that over 90% of waste in the infectious stream is misallocated. We assessed the effect of real-time waste segregation by an unscrubbed team member on waste generation in knee and hip arthroplasty cases, and compared this with a simple educational intervention during the ‘team brief’ at the start of the operating list across two sites. Methods. Waste was categorized into five categories: infectious, general, recycling, sharps, and linens. Each category was weighed at the end of each case using a digital weighing scale. At Site A (a tertiary orthopaedic hospital), pre-intervention data were collected for 16 total knee arthroplasy (TKA) and 15 total hip arthroplasty (THA) cases. Subsequently, for ten TKA and ten THA cases, an unscrubbed team member actively segregated waste in real-time into the correct streams. At Site B (a district general hospital), both pre- and post-intervention groups included ten TKA and ten THA cases. The intervention included reminding staff during the ‘team brief’ to segregate waste correctly. Results. Active real-time waste segregation reduced infectious waste by a mean of 2.51 kg (95% CI 1.492 to 3.542) in TKA, and 1.83 kg in THA cases (p = 0.004). Educational intervention reduced infectious waste by a mean of 3.52 kg in TKA and 2.09 kg in THA cases (p = 0.026). Total waste was significantly reduced in both groups post-intervention for TKA cases. Conclusion. Simple educational measures alone can significantly reduce the amount of infectious waste. Extrapolated nationally, our results would yield a reduction of approximately 315,004 kg to 594,577 kg of CO2 annually, which equates to 70 to 132 gasoline-powered passenger vehicles driven for a year. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(12):1119–1124

Aims. The objective of this study was to present the outcomes of rotational acetabular osteotomy (RAO) over a 30-year period for osteoarthritis (OA) secondary to dysplasia of the hip in pre- or early-stage OA. Methods. Between September 1987 and December 1994, we provided treatment to 47 patients (55 hips) with RAO for the management of pre- or early-stage OA due to developmental hip dysplasia. Of those, eight patients (11 hips) with pre-OA (follow-up rate 79%) and 27 patients (32 hips) with early-stage OA (follow-up rate 78%), totalling 35 patients (43 hips) (follow-up rate 78%), were available at a minimum of 28 years after surgery. Results. In the pre-OA group, the mean Merle d'Aubigné score improved significantly from 14.5 points (SD 0.7) preoperatively to 17.4 points at final follow-up (SD 1.2; p = 0.004) and in the early-stage group, the mean score did not improve significantly from 14.0 (SD 0.3) to 14.6 (SD 2.4; p = 0.280). Radiologically, the centre-edge angle, acetabular roof angle, and head lateralization index were significantly improved postoperatively in both groups. Radiological progression of OA was observed in two patients (two hips) in the pre-OA group and 17 patients (18 hips) in the early-stage group. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, with radiological progression of OA as the primary outcome, projected a 30-year survival rate of 81.8% (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.59 to 1.00) for the pre-OA group and 42.2% (95% CI 0.244 to 0.600) for the early-stage group. In all cases, the overall survival rate stood at 51.5% (95% CI 0.365 to 0.674) over a 30-year period, and when the endpoint was conversion to total hip arthroplasty, the survival rate was 74.0% (95% CI 0.608 to 0.873). Conclusion. For younger patients with pre-OA, joint preservation of over 30 years can be expected after RAO. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(5 Supple B):25–31

Aims. The aim of this meta-analysis was to determine the pooled incidence of postoperative urinary retention (POUR) following total hip and knee arthroplasty (total joint replacement (TJR)) and to evaluate the risk factors and complications associated with POUR. Methods. Two authors conducted searches in PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Scopus on TJR and urinary retention. Eligible studies that reported the rate of POUR and associated risk factors for patients undergoing TJR were included in the analysis. Patient demographic details, medical comorbidities, and postoperative outcomes and complications were separately analyzed. The effect estimates for continuous and categorical data were reported as standardized mean differences (SMDs) and odds ratios (ORs) with 95% CIs, respectively. Results. A total of 31 studies were included in the systematic review. Of these, 29 studies entered our meta-analysis, which included 3,273 patients diagnosed with POUR and 11,583 patients without POUR following TJR. The pooled incidence of POUR was 28.06%. Demographic risk factors included male sex (OR 1.81, 95% CI 1.26 to 2.59), increasing age (SMD 0.16, 95% CI 0.04 to 0.27), and American Society of Anesthesiologists grade 3 to 4 (OR 1.39, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.77). Patients with a history of benign prostatic hyperplasia (OR 1.99, 95% CI 1.41 to 2.83) and retention (OR 3.10, 95% CI 1.58 to 6.06) were more likely to develop POUR. Surgery-related risk factors included spinal anaesthesia (OR 1.44, 95% CI 1.19 to 1.74) and postoperative epidural analgesia (OR 2.82, 95% CI 1.65 to 4.82). Total hip arthroplasty was associated with higher odds of POUR compared to total knee arthroplasty (OR 1.10, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.20). Postoperatively, POUR was associated with a longer length of stay (SMD 0.21, 95% CI 0.02 to 0.39). Conclusion. Our meta-analysis demonstrated key risk variables for POUR following TJR, which may assist in identifying at-risk patients and direct patient-centered pathways to minimize this postoperative complication. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(7):601–611

Aims. Dislocation is a major concern following total hip arthroplasty (THA) for osteoarthritis (OA). Both dual-mobility components and standard acetabular components with large femoral heads are used to reduce the risk of dislocation. We investigated whether dual-mobility components are superior to standard components in reducing the two-year dislocation and revision risk in a propensity-matched sample from the Danish Hip Arthroplasty Register (DHR). Methods. This population-based cohort study analyzed data from the DHR and the Danish National Patient Register. We included all patients undergoing primary THA for OA from January 2010 to December 2019 with either dual-mobility or standard acetabular components with metal-on-polyethylene or ceramic-on-polyethylene articulations with a 36 mm femoral head. The samples were propensity score-matched on patient and implant characteristics. The primary outcome was the difference in the absolute risk of dislocation within two years, with a secondary outcome of the difference in the absolute risk of revision surgery of any cause within the same timeframe. The cumulative incidence of dislocation was calculated using the Aalen-Johansen estimator, while the difference in absolute risk was estimated using absolute risk regression (ARR). Results. We included 4,499 patients with dual-mobility components and 4,499 patients with standard components after propensity score-matching. Both groups had a mean age of 75 years (SD 8.5), included approximately 60% females, and had a two-year survival of 95.3% (95% CI 94.6 to 95.9). The dual-mobility group was 80% less likely to dislocate within two years (ARR 0.20 (95% CI 0.14 to 0.28); p < 0.001), with no significant difference in the risk of revision compared to standard components (ARR 1.15 (95% CI 0.89 to 1.48); p = 0.293). Conclusion. Dual-mobility components are associated with a reduced risk of dislocation and with no significant difference in the risk of revision for any cause within two years of THA when compared to standard acetabular components with 36 mm femoral heads. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2025;107-B(1):50–57

Aims. Using data from the Hip Fracture Evaluation with Alternatives of Total Hip Arthroplasty versus Hemiarthroplasty (HEALTH) trial, we sought to determine if a difference in functional outcomes exists between monopolar and bipolar hemiarthroplasty (HA). Methods. This study is a secondary analysis of patients aged 50 years or older with a displaced femoral neck fracture who were enrolled in the HEALTH trial and underwent monopolar and bipolar HA. Scores from the Western Ontario and McMaster University Arthritis Index (WOMAC) and 12-Item Short Form Health Survey (SF-12) Physical Component Summary (PCS) and (MCS) were compared between the two HA groups using a propensity score-weighted analysis. Results. Of 746 HAs performed in the HEALTH trial, 404 were bipolar prostheses and 342 were unipolar. After propensity score weighting, adequate balance between the bipolar and unipolar groups was obtained as shown by standardized mean differences less than 0.1 for each covariable. A total of 24 months after HA, the total WOMAC score and its subcomponents showed no statistically significant difference between the unipolar and bipolar groups. Similarly, no statistically significant difference was found in the PCS and MCS scores of the SF-12 questionnaire. In participants aged 70 years and younger, no difference was found in any of the functional outcomes. Conclusion. From the results of this study, the use of bipolar HA over unipolar design does not provide superior functional outcomes at 24 months postoperatively. The theoretical advantage of reduced acetabular wear with bipolar designs does not appear to influence functional outcomes in the first two years postoperatively. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(5):370–377

Aims. It is unclear whether mortality outcomes differ for patients undergoing total hip arthroplasty (THA) or total knee arthroplasty (TKA) surgery who are readmitted to the index hospital where their surgery was performed, or to another hospital. Methods. We analyzed linked hospital and death records for residents of New South Wales, Australia, aged ≥ 18 years who had an emergency readmission within 90 days following THA or TKA surgery between 2003 and 2022. Multivariable modelling was used to identify factors associated with non-index readmission and to evaluate associations of readmission destination (non-index vs index) with 90-day and one-year mortality. Results. Of 394,248 joint arthroplasty patients (THA = 149,456; TKA = 244,792), 9.5% (n = 37,431) were readmitted within 90 days, and 53.7% of these were admitted to a non-index hospital. Non-index readmission was more prevalent among patients who underwent surgery in private hospitals (60%). Patients who were readmitted for non-orthopaedic conditions (62.8%), were more likely to return to a non-index hospital compared to those readmitted for orthopaedic complications (39.5%). Factors associated with non-index readmission included older age, higher socioeconomic status, private health insurance, and residence in a rural or remote area. Non-index readmission was significantly associated with 90 day (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.69; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.39 to 2.05) and one-year mortality (aOR 1.31; 95% CI 1.16 to 1.47). Associations between non-index readmission and mortality were similar for patients readmitted with orthopaedic and non-orthopaedic complications (90-day mortality aOR 1.61; 95% CI 0.98 to 2.64, and aOR 1.67; 95% CI 1.35 to 2.06, respectively). Conclusion. Non-index readmission was associated with increased mortality, irrespective of whether the readmission was for orthopaedic complications or other conditions. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(1):60–68

Aims. Acetabular fractures are associated with long-term morbidity. Our prospective cohort study sought to understand the recovery trajectory of this injury over five years. Methods. Eligible patients at a level I trauma centre were recruited into a longitudinal registry of surgical acetabular fractures between June 2004 and August 2019. Patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs), including the 36-Item Short Form Health Survey (SF-36) physical component summary (PCS), were recorded at baseline pre-injury recall and six months, one year, two years, and five years postoperatively. Comparative analyses were performed for elementary and associated fracture patterns. The proportion of patients achieving minimal clinically important difference (MCID) was determined. The rate of, and time to, conversion to total hip arthroplasty (THA) was also established. Results. We recruited 251 patients (253 fractures), with a 4:1 male to female ratio and mean age of 46.1 years (SD 16.4). Associated fracture patterns accounted for 56.5% of fractures (n = 143). Trajectory analysis showed all timepoints had significant disability versus baseline, including final follow-up (p < 0.001). Elementary fractures had higher SF-36 PCS at six months (p = 0.023) and one year (p = 0.007) compared to associated fractures, but not at two years (p = 0.135) or five years (p = 0.631). The MCID in SF-36 PCS was observed in 37.3% of patients (69/185) between six months and one year, 26.9% of patients (39/145) between one and two years, and 23.3% of patients (20/86) between two and five years, highlighting the long recovery potential of these injuries. A significant proportion of patients failed to attain the MCID after five years (38.1%; 40/105). Conversion to THA occurred in 13.1% of patients (11/110 elementary and 22/143 associated fractures). Approximately two-thirds of THAs (21/33 patients; 63.6%) were performed within two years of index surgery. Conclusion. Acetabular fractures significantly impact physical function. Recovery trajectory is often elongated beyond one year, with two-thirds of our patients displaying persistent clinically relevant long-term disability. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(1):69–76

The aim of this prospective randomised study was to compare the clinical and radiological results of a cemented all-polyethylene Ultima acetabular component with those of a cementless porous-coated acetabular component (PFC) following total hip replacement (THR). A total of 287 patients received either a polyethylene acetabular component (group A) or a cobalt–chromium porous-coated component (group B) with an identical cemented femoral component and 28 mm cobalt-chromium head, thus making it the largest study of its type. Patients were evaluated radiologically and clinically using the Harris hip score (HHS). Group A comprised 183 patients (73 male, 110 female) with a mean age of 71.3 years (55 to 89). Group B comprised 104 patients (48 male, 56 female) with a mean age of 69.8 years (56 to 89). A total of 16 patients (13 in Group A, three in Group B) did not have post-operative data for analysis. The mean follow-up in group A was 7.52 years (0.4 to 15.0) and in Group B 7.87 years (0.5 to 14.0).

At final follow-up the mean HHS was similar between groups A and B (74.5 (25 to 100) and 78.0 (37 to 100), respectively; p = 0.068). The total number of revisions for any cause was 28, 17 of which were in group A and 11 in group B. The ten-year survivorship was 86.8% (95% confidence interval (CI) 78.4 to 92.1) and 89.2% (95% CI 78.3 to 94.8) for groups A and B, respectively (log-rank p-value = 0.938). A total of 20 cemented and two cementless acetabular components had evidence of acetabular radiolucencies or acetabular component migration at last follow-up (p = 0.001).

These results indicate that patients with a cemented all-polyethylene and cementless porous-coated polyethylene lined acetabular component have similar long-term clinical outcomes.

Aims. Hip arthroscopy (HA) has become the treatment of choice for femoroacetabular impingement (FAI). However, less favourable outcomes following arthroscopic surgery are expected in patients with severe chondral lesions. The aim of this study was to assess the outcomes of HA in patients with FAI and associated chondral lesions, classified according to the Outerbridge system. Methods. A systematic search was performed on four databases. Studies which involved HA as the primary management of FAI and reported on chondral lesions as classified according to the Outerbridge classification were included. The study was registered on PROSPERO. Demographic data, patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs), complications, and rates of conversion to total hip arthroplasty (THA) were collected. Results. A total of 24 studies were included with a total of 3,198 patients (3,233 hips). Patients had significantly less improvement in PROMs if they had Outerbridge grade III and IV lesions (p = 0.012). Compared with microfracture, autologous matrix-induced chondrogenesis (AMIC) resulted in significantly reduced rates of conversion to THA (p = 0.042) and of revision arthroscopy (p = 0.038). Chondral repair procedures in these patients also did not significantly reduce the rates of conversion to THA (p = 0.931), or of revision arthroscopy (p = 0.218). However, compared with microfracture, AMIC significantly reduced the rates of conversion to THA (p = 0.001) and of revision arthroscopy (p = 0.011) in these patients. Those with Outerbridge grade III and IV lesions also had significantly increased rates of conversion to THA (p = 0.029) and of revision arthroscopy (p = 0.023) if they had associated lesions of the acetabulum and femoral head. Those who underwent labral debridement had a significantly increased rate of conversion to THA compared with those who underwent labral repair (p = 0.015). Conclusion. There is universal improvement in PROMs following HA in patients with FAI and associated chondral lesions. However, those with Outerbridge grade III and IV lesions had significantly less improvement in PROMs and a significantly increased rate of conversion to THA than those with Outerbridge grade I and II. This suggests that the outcome of HA in patients with FAI and severe articular cartilage damage may not be favourable. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(7):751–759

Aims. To develop prediction models using machine-learning (ML) algorithms for 90-day and one-year mortality prediction in femoral neck fracture (FNF) patients aged 50 years or older based on the Hip fracture Evaluation with Alternatives of Total Hip arthroplasty versus Hemiarthroplasty (HEALTH) and Fixation using Alternative Implants for the Treatment of Hip fractures (FAITH) trials. Methods. This study included 2,388 patients from the HEALTH and FAITH trials, with 90-day and one-year mortality proportions of 3.0% (71/2,388) and 6.4% (153/2,388), respectively. The mean age was 75.9 years (SD 10.8) and 65.9% of patients (1,574/2,388) were female. The algorithms included patient and injury characteristics. Six algorithms were developed, internally validated and evaluated across discrimination (c-statistic; discriminative ability between those with risk of mortality and those without), calibration (observed outcome compared to the predicted probability), and the Brier score (composite of discrimination and calibration). Results. The developed algorithms distinguished between patients at high and low risk for 90-day and one-year mortality. The penalized logistic regression algorithm had the best performance metrics for both 90-day (c-statistic 0.80, calibration slope 0.95, calibration intercept -0.06, and Brier score 0.039) and one-year (c-statistic 0.76, calibration slope 0.86, calibration intercept -0.20, and Brier score 0.074) mortality prediction in the hold-out set. Conclusion. Using high-quality data, the ML-based prediction models accurately predicted 90-day and one-year mortality in patients aged 50 years or older with a FNF. The final models must be externally validated to assess generalizability to other populations, and prospectively evaluated in the process of shared decision-making. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(3):168–181