Aims. Hip fractures are some of the most common fractures encountered in orthopaedic practice. We aimed to identify whether perioperative hypotension is a predictor of 30-day mortality, and to stratify patient groups that would benefit from closer monitoring and early intervention. While there is literature on intraoperative blood pressure, there are limited studies examining pre- and postoperative blood pressure. Methods. We conducted a prospective observational cohort study over a one-year period from December 2021 to December 2022. Patient demographic details, biochemical results, and haemodynamic observations were taken from electronic medical records. Statistical analysis was conducted with the Cox proportional hazards model, and the effects of independent variables estimated with the Wald statistic. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were estimated with the log-rank test. Results. A total of 528 patients were identified as suitable for inclusion. On multivariate analysis, postoperative hypotension of a systolic blood pressure (SBP) < 90 mmHg two to 24 hours after surgery showed an increased hazard ratio (HR) for 30-day mortality (HR 4.6 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.3 to 8.9); p < 0.001) and was an independent risk factor accounting for sex (HR 2.7 (95% CI 1.4 to 5.2); p = 0.003), age (HR 1.1 (95% CI 1.0 to 1.1); p = 0.016), American Society of Anesthesiologists grade (HR 2.7 (95% CI 1.5 to 4.6); p < 0.001), time to theatre > 24 hours (HR 2.1 (95% CI 1.1 to 4.2); p = 0.025), and preoperative anaemia (HR 2.3 (95% CI 1.0 to 5.2); p = 0.043). A preoperative SBP of < 120 mmHg was close to achieving significance (HR 1.9 (95% CI 0.99 to 3.6); p = 0.052). Conclusion. Our study is the first to demonstrate that postoperative hypotension within the first 24 hours is an independent risk factor for 30-day mortality after hip fracture surgery. Clinicians should recognize patients who have a SBP of < 90 mmHg in the early postoperative period, and be aware of the increased mortality risk in this specific cohort who may benefit from a closer level of monitoring and early intervention. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(2):189–194

Aims. Neither a surgeon’s intraoperative impression nor the parameters of computer navigation have been shown to be predictive of the outcomes following total knee arthroplasty (TKA). The aim of this study was to determine whether a surgeon, with robotic assistance, can predict the outcome as assessed using the Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS) for pain (KPS), one year postoperatively, and establish what factors correlate with poor KOOS scores in a well-aligned and balanced TKA. Methods. A total of 134 consecutive patients who underwent TKA using a dynamic ligament tensioning robotic system with a tibia first resection technique and a cruciate sacrificing ultracongruent TKA system were enrolled into a prospective study. Each TKA was graded based on the final mediolateral ligament balance at 10° and 90° of flexion: 1) < 1 mm difference in the thickness of the tibial insert and that which was planned (n = 75); 2) < 1 mm difference (n = 26); 3) between 1 mm to 2 mm difference (n = 26); and 4) > 2 mm difference (n = 7). The mean one-year KPS score for each grade of TKA was compared and the likelihood of achieving an KPS score of > 90 was calculated. Finally, the factors associated with lower KPS despite achieving a high-grade TKA (grade A and B) were analyzed. Results. Patients with a grade of A or B TKA had significantly higher mean one-year KPS scores compared with those with C or D grades (p = 0.031). There was no difference in KPS scores in grade A or B TKAs, but 33% of these patients did not have a KPS score of > 90. While there was no correlation with age, sex, preoperative deformity, and preoperative KOOS and Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS) physical scores, patients with a KPS score of < 90, despite a grade A or B TKA, had lower PROMIS mental health scores compared with those with KPS scores of > 90 (54.1 vs 50.8; p = 0.043). Patients with grade A and B TKAs with KPS > 90 were significantly more likely to respond with “my expectations were too low”, and with “the knee is performing better than expected” compared with patients with these grades of TKA who had a KPS score of < 90 (40% vs 22%; p = 0.004). Conclusion. A TKA balanced with robotic assistance to within 1 mm of difference between the medial and lateral sides in both flexion and extension had a higher KPS score one year postoperatively. Despite accurate ligament balance information, a robotic system could not guarantee excellent pain relief. Patient expectations and mental status also significantly affected the perceived success of TKA. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(6 Supple A):67–73

Aims. We assessed the value of the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) in the prediction of adverse outcome after hip fracture. Methods. Of 1,577 consecutive patients aged > 65 years with a fragility hip fracture admitted to one institution, for whom there were complete data, 1,255 (72%) were studied. Clinicians assigned CFS scores on admission. Audit personnel routinely prospectively completed the Standardised Audit of Hip Fracture in Europe form, including the following outcomes: 30-day survival; in-hospital complications; length of acute hospital stay; and new institutionalization. The relationship between the CFS scores and outcomes was examined graphically and the visual interpretations were tested statistically. The predictive values of the CFS and Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS) to predict 30-day mortality were compared using receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (AUC) analysis. Results. Significant non-linear associations between CFS and outcomes were observed. Risk of death within 30 days rose linearly for CFS 1 to 5, but plateaued for CFS > 5. The incidence of complications and length of stay rose linearly for CFS 1 to 4, but plateaued for CFS > 4. In contrast, the risk of new institutionalization rose linearly for CFS 1 to 8. The AUCs for 30-day mortality for the CFS and NHFS were very similar: CFS AUC 0.63 (95% CI 0.57 to 0.69) and NHFS AUC 0.63 (95% CI 0.57 to 0.69). Conclusion. Use of the CFS may provide useful information on outcomes for fitter patients presenting with hip fracture, but completion of the CFS by the admitting orthopaedic team does not appear successful in distinguishing between higher CFS categories, which define patients with frailty. This makes a strong case for the role of the orthogeriatrician in the early assessment of these patients. Further work is needed to understand why patients assessed as being of mild, moderate, and severe frailty do not result in different outcomes. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(8):980–986

Aims. The Uppföljningsprogram för cerebral pares (CPUP) Hip Score distinguishes between children with cerebral palsy (CP) at different levels of risk for displacement of the hip. The score was constructed using data from Swedish children with CP, but has not been confirmed in any other population. The aim of this study was to determine the calibration and discriminatory accuracy of this score in children with CP in Scotland. Methods. This was a total population-based study of children registered with the Cerebral Palsy Integrated Pathway Scotland. Displacement of the hip was defined as a migration percentage (MP) of > 40%. Inclusion criteria were children in Gross Motor Function Classification System (GMFCS) levels III to V. The calibration slope was estimated and Kaplan-Meier curves produced for five strata of CPUP scores to compare the observed with the predicted risk of displacement of the hip at five years. For discriminatory accuracy, the time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was estimated. In order to analyze differences in the performance of the score between cohorts, score weights, and subsequently the AUC, were re-estimated using the variables of the original score: the child’s age at the first examination, GMFCS level, head shaft angle, and MP of the worst hip in a logistic regression with imputation of outcomes for those with incomplete follow-up. Results. The discriminatory accuracy of the score in the new population of 367 children was high (AUC 0.78 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.71 to 0.86)). The calibration of the score was insufficient (slope 0.48 (95% CI 0.31 to 0.65)), and the absolute risks of displacement of the hip in this population were overestimated. The AUC increased with re-estimated weights (0.85 (95% CI 0.79 to 0.91)). Conclusion. The CPUP Hip Score had a high ability to discriminate between children at different levels of risk for displacement of the hip. The score overestimated the absolute risks of displacement in this population, which may have resulted from differences in the way children were initially registered in the two programmes. The results are promising, but the score weights may need re-estimation before its clinical application in Scotland. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(5):640–644

Aims. This study of patients with osteoarthritis (OA) of the hip aimed to: 1) characterize the contribution of the hip, spinopelvic complex, and lumbar spine when moving from the standing to the sitting position; 2) assess whether abnormal spinopelvic mobility is associated with worse symptoms; and 3) identify whether spinopelvic mobility can be predicted from static anatomical radiological parameters. Patients and Methods. A total of 122 patients with end-stage OA of the hip awaiting total hip arthroplasty (THA) were prospectively studied. Patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs; Oxford Hip Score, Oswestry Disability Index, and Veterans RAND 12-Item Health Survey Score) and clinical data were collected. Sagittal spinopelvic mobility was calculated as the change from the standing to sitting position using the lumbar lordosis angle (LL), sacral slope (SS), pelvic tilt (PT), pelvic-femoral angle (PFA), and acetabular anteinclination (AI) from lateral radiographs. The interaction of the different parameters was assessed. PROMs were compared between patients with normal spinopelvic mobility (10° ≤ ∆PT ≤ 30°) or abnormal spinopelvic mobility (stiff: ∆PT < ± 10°; hypermobile: ∆PT > ± 30°). Multiple regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were used to test for possible predictors of spinopelvic mobility. Results. Standing to sitting, the hip flexed by a mean of 57° (. sd. 17°), the pelvis tilted backwards by a mean of 20° (. sd. 12°), and the lumbar spine flexed by a mean of 20° (. sd. 14°); strong correlations were detected. There was no difference in PROMs between patients in the different spinopelvic mobility groups. Maximum hip flexion, standing PT, and standing AI were independent predictors of spinopelvic mobility (R. 2. = 0.42). The combined thresholds for standing was PT ≥ 13° and hip flexion ≥ 88° in the clinical examination, and had 90% sensitivity and 63% specificity of predicting spinopelvic stiffness, while SS ≥ 42° had 84% sensitivity and 67% specificity of predicting spinopelvic hypermobility. Conclusion. The hip, on average, accounts for three-quarters of the standing-to-sitting movement, but there is great variation. Abnormal spinopelvic mobility cannot be screened with PROMs. However, clinical and standing radiological features can predict spinopelvic mobility with good enough accuracy, allowing them to be used as reliable screening tools. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B:902–909

Aims. A proximal femur fracture (PFF) is a common orthopaedic presentation, with an incidence of over 25,000 cases reported in the Australian and New Zealand Hip Fracture Registry (ANZHFR) in 2018. Hip fractures are known to have high mortality. The purpose of this study was to determine the utility of the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) in predicting 30-day and one-year mortality after a PFF in older patients. Methods. A retrospective review of all fragility hip fractures who met the inclusion/exclusion criteria of the ANZHFR between 2017 and 2018 was undertaken at a single large volume tertiary hospital. There were 509 patients included in the study with one-year follow-up obtained in 502 cases. The CFS was applied retrospectively to patients according to their documented pre-morbid function and patients were stratified into five groups according to their frailty score. The groups were compared using t-test, analysis of variance (ANOVA), and the chi-squared test. The discriminative ability of the CFS to predict mortality was then compared with American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) classification and the patient’s chronological age. Results. A total of 38 patients were deceased at 30 days and 135 patients at one year. The 30-day mortality rate increased from 1.3% (CFS 1 to 3; 1/80) to 14.6% (CFS ≥ 7; 22/151), and the one-year mortality increased from 3.8% (CFS 1 to 3; 3/80) to 41.7% (CFS ≥ 7; 63/151). The CFS was demonstrated superior discriminative ability in predicting mortality after PFF (area under the curve (AUC) 0.699; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.651 to 0.747) when compared with the ASA (AUC 0.634; 95% CI 0.576 to 0.691) and chronological age groups (AUC 0.585; 95% CI 0.523 to 0.648). Conclusion. The CFS demonstrated utility in predicting mortality after PFF fracture. The CFS can be easily performed by non-geriatricians and may help to reduce age related bias influencing surgical decision making. Cite this article: Bone Joint Open 2020;1-8:443–449

Aims. The outcomes following nonoperative management of minimally displaced greater tuberosity (GT) fractures, and the factors which influence patient experience, remain poorly defined. We assessed the early patient-derived outcomes following these injuries and examined the effect of a range of demographic- and injury-related variables on these outcomes. Methods. In total, 101 patients (53 female, 48 male) with a mean age of 50.9 years (19 to 76) with minimally displaced GT fractures were recruited to a prospective observational cohort study. During the first year after injury, patients underwent experiential assessment using the Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand (DASH) score and assessment of associated injuries using MRI performed within two weeks of injury. The primary outcome was the one-year DASH score. Multivariate analysis was used to assess the effect of patient demographic factors, complications, and associated injuries, on outcome. Results. The mean DASH score improved from 42.3 (SD 9.6) at six weeks post-injury, to 19.5 (SD 14.3) at one-year follow-up (p < 0.001), but outcomes were mixed, with 30 patients having a DASH score > 30 at one year. MRI revealed a range of associated injuries, with a full-thickness rotator cuff tear present in 19 patients (19%). Overall, 11 patients (11%) developed complications requiring further operative intervention; 20 patients (21%) developed post-traumatic secondary shoulder stiffness. Multivariate analysis revealed a high-energy mechanism (p = 0.009), tobacco consumption (p = 0.033), use of mobility aids (p = 0.047), a full-thickness rotator cuff tear (p = 0.002), and the development of post-traumatic secondary shoulder stiffness (p = 0.035) were independent predictors of poorer outcome. Conclusion. The results of nonoperative management of minimally displaced GT fractures are heterogeneous. While many patients have satisfactory early outcomes, a substantial subgroup fare much worse. There is a high prevalence of rotator cuff injuries and post-traumatic shoulder stiffness, and their presence is associated with poorer patient experience. Furthermore, patients who have a high-energy injury, smoke, or use walking aids, have worse outcomes. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(5):534–542

Aims. The primary aim of this study was to assess whether the postoperative Oxford Knee Score (OKS) demonstrated a ceiling effect at one and/or two years after total knee arthroplasty (TKA). The secondary aim was to identify preoperative independent predictors for patients that achieved a ceiling score after TKA. Methods. A retrospective cohort of 5,857 patients undergoing a primary TKA were identified from an established arthroplasty database. Patient demographics, body mass index (BMI), OKS, and EuroQoL five-dimension (EQ-5D) general health scores were collected preoperatively and at one and two years postoperatively. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent preoperative predictors of patients achieving postoperative ceiling scores. Receiver operating characteristic curve was used to identify a preoperative OKS that predicted a postoperative ceiling score. Results. The ceiling effect was 4.6% (n = 272) at one year which increased significantly (odds ratio (OR) 40.3, 95% confidence interval (CI) 30.4 to 53.3; p < 0.001) to 6.2% (n = 363) at two years, when defined as those with a maximal score of 48 points. However, when the ceiling effect was defined as an OKS of 44 points or more, this increased to 26.3% (n = 1,540) at one year and further to 29.8% (n = 1,748) at two years (OR 21.6, 95% CI 18.7 to 25.1; p < 0.001). A preoperative OKS of 23 or more and 22 or more were predictive of achieving a postoperative ceiling OKS at one and two years when defined as a maximal score or a score of 44 or more, respectively. Conclusion. The postoperative OKS demonstrated a small ceiling effect when defined by a maximal score, but when defined by a postoperative OKS of 44 or more the ceiling effect was moderate and failed to meet standards. The preoperative OKS was an independent predictor of achieving a ceiling score. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(11):1519–1526

Aims. A retrospective longitudinal study was conducted to compare directly volumetric wear of retrieved polyethylene inserts to predicted volumetric wear modelled from individual gait mechanics of total knee arthroplasty (TKA) patients. Methods. In total, 11 retrieved polyethylene tibial inserts were matched with gait analysis testing performed on those patients. Volumetric wear on the articular surfaces was measured using a laser coordinate measure machine and autonomous reconstruction. Knee kinematics and kinetics from individual gait trials drove computational models to calculate medial and lateral tibiofemoral contact paths and forces. Sliding distance along the contact path, normal forces and implantation time were used as inputs to Archard’s equation of wear to predict volumetric wear from gait mechanics. Measured and modelled wear were compared for each component. Results. Volumetric wear rates on eight non-delaminated components measured 15.9 mm. 3. /year (standard error (SE) ± 7.7) on the total part, 11.4 mm. 3. /year (SE ± 6.4) on the medial side and 4.4 (SE ± 2.6) mm. 3. /year on the lateral side. Volumetric wear rates modelled from patient gait mechanics predicted 16.4 mm. 3. /year (SE 2.4) on the total part, 11.7 mm. 3. /year (SE 2.1) on the medial side and 4.7 mm. 3. /year (SE 0.4) on the lateral side. Measured and modelled wear volumes correlated significantly on the total part (p = 0.017) and the medial side (p = 0.012) but not on the lateral side (p = 0.154). Conclusion. In the absence of delamination, patient-specific knee mechanics during gait directly affect wear of the tibial component in TKA. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(6 Supple A):129–137

Aims. To examine whether natural language processing (NLP) using a clinically based large language model (LLM) could be used to predict patient selection for total hip or total knee arthroplasty (THA/TKA) from routinely available free-text radiology reports. Methods. Data pre-processing and analyses were conducted according to the Artificial intelligence to Revolutionize the patient Care pathway in Hip and knEe aRthroplastY (ARCHERY) project protocol. This included use of de-identified Scottish regional clinical data of patients referred for consideration of THA/TKA, held in a secure data environment designed for artificial intelligence (AI) inference. Only preoperative radiology reports were included. NLP algorithms were based on the freely available GatorTron model, a LLM trained on over 82 billion words of de-identified clinical text. Two inference tasks were performed: assessment after model-fine tuning (50 Epochs and three cycles of k-fold cross validation), and external validation. Results. For THA, there were 5,558 patient radiology reports included, of which 4,137 were used for model training and testing, and 1,421 for external validation. Following training, model performance demonstrated average (mean across three folds) accuracy, F1 score, and area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) values of 0.850 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.833 to 0.867), 0.813 (95% CI 0.785 to 0.841), and 0.847 (95% CI 0.822 to 0.872), respectively. For TKA, 7,457 patient radiology reports were included, with 3,478 used for model training and testing, and 3,152 for external validation. Performance metrics included accuracy, F1 score, and AUROC values of 0.757 (95% CI 0.702 to 0.811), 0.543 (95% CI 0.479 to 0.607), and 0.717 (95% CI 0.657 to 0.778) respectively. There was a notable deterioration in performance on external validation in both cohorts. Conclusion. The use of routinely available preoperative radiology reports provides promising potential to help screen suitable candidates for THA, but not for TKA. The external validation results demonstrate the importance of further model testing and training when confronted with new clinical cohorts. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(7):688–695

Aims. To evaluate if union of clavicle fractures can be predicted at six weeks post-injury by the presence of bridging callus on ultrasound. Methods. Adult patients managed nonoperatively with a displaced mid-shaft clavicle were recruited prospectively. Ultrasound evaluation of the fracture was undertaken to determine if sonographic bridging callus was present. Clinical risk factors at six weeks were used to stratify patients at high risk of nonunion with a combination of Quick Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand questionnaire (QuickDASH) ≥ 40, fracture movement on examination, or absence of callus on radiograph. Results. A total of 112 patients completed follow-up at six months with a nonunion incidence of 16.7% (n = 18/112). Sonographic bridging callus was detected in 62.5% (n = 70/112) of the cohort at six weeks post-injury. If present, union occurred in 98.6% of the fractures (n = 69/70). If absent, nonunion developed in 40.5% of cases (n = 17/42). The sensitivity to predict union with sonographic bridging callus at six weeks was 73.4% and the specificity was 94.4%. Regression analysis found that failure to detect sonographic bridging callus at six weeks was associated with older age, female sex, simple fracture pattern, smoking, and greater fracture displacement (Nagelkerke R. 2. = 0.48). Of the cohort, 30.4% (n = 34/112) had absent sonographic bridging callus in addition to one or more of the clinical risk factors at six weeks that predispose to nonunion. If one was present the nonunion rate was 35%, 60% with two, and 100% when combined with all three. Conclusion. Ultrasound combined with clinical risk factors can accurately predict fracture healing at six weeks following a displaced midshaft clavicle fracture. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2021;10(2):113–121

Aims. The distal radius is a major site of osteoporotic bone loss resulting in a high risk of fragility fracture. This study evaluated the capability of a cortical index (CI) at the distal radius to predict the local bone mineral density (BMD). Methods. A total of 54 human cadaver forearms (ten singles, 22 pairs) (19 to 90 years) were systematically assessed by clinical radiograph (XR), dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), CT, as well as high-resolution peripheral quantitative CT (HR-pQCT). Cortical bone thickness (CBT) of the distal radius was measured on XR and CT scans, and two cortical indices mean average (CBTavg) and gauge (CBTg) were determined. These cortical indices were compared to the BMD of the distal radius determined by DXA (areal BMD (aBMD)) and HR-pQCT (volumetric BMD (vBMD)). Pearson correlation coefficient (r) and intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) were used to compare the results and degree of reliability. Results. The CBT could accurately be determined on XRs and highly correlated to those determined on CT scans (r = 0.87 to 0.93). The CBTavg index of the XRs significantly correlated with the BMD measured by DXA (r = 0.78) and HR-pQCT (r = 0.63), as did the CBTg index with the DXA (r = 0.55) and HR-pQCT (r = 0.64) (all p < 0.001). A high correlation of the BMD and CBT was observed between paired specimens (r = 0.79 to 0.96). The intra- and inter-rater reliability was excellent (ICC 0.79 to 0.92). Conclusion. The cortical index (CBTavg) at the distal radius shows a close correlation to the local BMD. It thus can serve as an initial screening tool to estimate the local bone quality if quantitative BMD measurements are unavailable, and enhance decision-making in acute settings on fracture management or further osteoporosis screening. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2021;10(12):820–829

Aims. The COVID-19 pandemic has caused unprecedented disruption to elective orthopaedic services. The primary objective of this study was to examine changes in functional scores in patients awaiting total hip arthroplasty (THA), total knee arthroplasty (TKA), and unicompartmental knee arthroplasty (UKA). Secondary objectives were to investigate differences between these groups and identify those in a health state ‘worse than death’ (WTD). Methods. In this prospective cohort study, preoperative Oxford hip and knee scores (OHS/OKS) were recorded for patients added to a waiting list for THA, TKA, or UKA, during the initial eight months of the COVID-19 pandemic, and repeated at 14 months into the pandemic (mean interval nine months (SD 2.84)). EuroQoL five-dimension five-level health questionnaire (EQ-5D-5L) index scores were also calculated at this point in time, with a negative score representing a state WTD. OHS/OKS were analyzed over time and in relation to the EQ-5D-5L. Results. A total of 174 patients (58 THA, 74 TKA, 42 UKA) were eligible, after 27 were excluded (one died, seven underwent surgery, 19 non-responders). The overall mean OHS/OKS deteriorated from 15.43 (SD 6.92), when patients were added to the waiting list, to 11.77 (SD 6.45) during the pandemic (p < 0.001). There were significantly worse EQ-5D-5L index scores in the THA group (p = 0.005), with 22 of these patients (38%) in a health state WTD, than either the TKA group (20 patients; 27% WTD), or the UKA group (nine patients; 21% WTD). A strong positive correlation between the EQ-5D-5L index score and OHS/OKS was observed (r = 0.818; p < 0.001). Receiver operating characteristic analysis revealed that an OHS/OKS lower than nine predicted a health state WTD (88% sensitivity and 73% specificity). Conclusion. OHS/OKS deteriorated significantly among patients awaiting lower limb arthroplasty during the COVID-19 pandemic. Overall, 51 patients were in a health state WTD, representing 29% of our entire cohort, which is considerably worse than existing pre-pandemic data. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(3):138–145

Aims. Open fractures of the tibia are a heterogeneous group of injuries that can present a number of challenges to the treating surgeon. Consequently, few surgeons can reliably advise patients and relatives about the expected outcomes. The aim of this study was to determine whether these outcomes are predictable by using the Ganga Hospital Score (GHS). This has been shown to be a useful method of scoring open injuries to inform wound management and decide between limb salvage and amputation. Methods. We collected data on 182 consecutive patients with a type II, IIIA, or IIIB open fracture of the tibia who presented to our hospital between July and December 2016. For the purposes of the study, the patients were jointly treated by experienced consultant orthopaedic and plastic surgeons who determined the type of treatment. Separately, the study team (SP, HS, AD, JD) independently calculated the GHS and prospectively collected data on six outcomes for each patient. These included time to bony union, number of admissions, length of hospital stay, total length of treatment, final functional score, and number of operations. Spearman’s correlation was used to compare GHS with each outcome. Forward stepwise linear regression was used to generate predictive models based on components of the GHS. Five-fold cross-validation was used to prevent models from over-fitting. Results. The mean follow-up was 11.4 months (3 to 31). The mean time to union was 9.7 months (3 to 21), the mean number of operations was 2.8 (1 to 11), the mean time in hospital was 17.7 days (5 to 84), the mean length of treatment was 92.7 days (5 to 730), the mean number of admissions was 1.7 (1 to 6), and the mean functional score (Lower Extremity Functional Score (LEFS)) was 60.13 (33 to 80). There was a significant correlation between the GHS and each of the outcome measures. A predictive model was generated from which the GHS could be used to predict the various outcome measures. Conclusion. The GHS can be used to predict the outcome of patients who present with an open fracture of the tibia. Our model generates a numerical value for each outcome measure that can be used in clinical practice to inform the treating team and to advise patients. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(1):26–32

Aims. Rotational acetabular osteotomy (RAO) has been reported to be effective in improving symptoms and preventing osteoarthritis (OA) progression in patients with mild to severe develomental dysplasia of the hip (DDH). However, some patients develop secondary OA even when the preoperative joint space is normal; determining who will progress to OA is difficult. We evaluated whether the preoperative cartilage condition may predict OA progression following surgery using T2 mapping MRI. Methods. We reviewed 61 hips with early-stage OA in 61 patients who underwent RAO for DDH. They underwent preoperative and five-year postoperative radiological analysis of the hip. Those with a joint space narrowing of more than 1 mm were considered to have 'OA progression'. Preoperative assessment of articular cartilage was also performed using 3T MRI with the T2 mapping technique. The region of interest was defined as the weightbearing portion of the acetabulum and femoral head. Results. There were 16 patients with postoperative OA progression. The T2 values of the centre to the anterolateral region of the acetabulum and femoral head in the OA progression cases were significantly higher than those in patients without OA progression. The preoperative T2 values in those regions were positively correlated with the narrowed joint space width. The receiver operating characteristic analysis revealed that the T2 value of the central portion in the acetabulum provided excellent discrimination, with OA progression patients having an area under the curve of 0.858. Furthermore, logistic regression analysis showed T2 values of the centre to the acetabulum’s anterolateral portion as independent predictors of subsequent OA progression (p < 0.001). Conclusion. This was the first study to evaluate the relationship between intra-articular degeneration using T2 mapping MRI and postoperative OA progression. Our findings suggest that preoperative T2 values of the hip can be better prognostic factors for OA progression than radiological measures following RAO. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(9):1472–1478

Aims. The primary aim of this study was to develop a reliable, effective radiological score to assess the healing of humeral shaft fractures, the Radiographic Union Score for HUmeral fractures (RUSHU). The secondary aim was to assess whether the six-week RUSHU was predictive of nonunion at six months after the injury. Patients and Methods. Initially, 20 patients with radiographs six weeks following a humeral shaft fracture were selected at random from a trauma database and scored by three observers, based on the Radiographic Union Scale for Tibial fractures system. After refinement of the RUSHU criteria, a second group of 60 patients with radiographs six weeks after injury, 40 with fractures that united and 20 with fractures that developed nonunion, were scored by two blinded observers. Results. After refinement, the interobserver intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) was 0.79 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.67 to 0.87), indicating substantial agreement. At six weeks after injury, patients whose fractures united had a significantly higher median score than those who developed nonunion (10 vs 7; p < 0.001). A receiver operating characteristic curve determined that a RUSHU cut-off of < 8 was predictive of nonunion (area under the curve = 0.84, 95% CI 0.74 to 0.94). The sensitivity was 75% and specificity 80% with a positive predictive value (PPV) of 65% and a negative predictive value of 86%. Patients with a RUSHU < 8 (n = 23) were more likely to develop nonunion than those with a RUSHU ≥ 8 (n = 37, odds ratio 12.0, 95% CI 3.4 to 42.9). Based on a PPV of 65%, if all patients with a RUSHU < 8 underwent fixation, the number of procedures needed to avoid one nonunion would be 1.5. Conclusion. The RUSHU is reliable and effective in identifying patients at risk of nonunion of a humeral shaft fracture at six weeks after injury. This tool requires external validation but could potentially reduce the morbidity associated with delayed treatment of an established nonunion. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B:1300–1306

Objectives. Researchers continue to seek easier ways to evaluate the quality of bone and screen for osteoporosis and osteopenia. Until recently, radiographic images of various parts of the body, except the distal femur, have been reappraised in the light of dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) findings. The incidence of osteoporotic fractures around the knee joint in the elderly continues to increase. The aim of this study was to propose two new radiographic parameters of the distal femur for the assessment of bone quality. Methods. Anteroposterior radiographs of the knee and bone mineral density (BMD) and T-scores from DXA scans of 361 healthy patients were prospectively analyzed. The mean cortical bone thickness (CBTavg) and the distal femoral cortex index (DFCI) were the two parameters that were proposed and measured. Intra- and interobserver reliabilities were assessed. Correlations between the BMD and T-score and these parameters were investigated and their value in the diagnosis of osteoporosis and osteopenia was evaluated. Results. The DFCI, as a ratio, had higher reliability than the CBTavg. Both showed significant correlation with BMD and T-score. When compared with DFCI, CBTavg showed better correlation and was better for predicting osteoporosis and osteopenia. Conclusion. The CBTavg and DFCI are simple and reliable screening tools for the prediction of osteoporosis and osteopenia. The CBTavg is more accurate but the DFCI is easier to use in clinical practice. Cite this article: Q-F. He, H. Sun, L-Y. Shu, Y. Zhu, X-T. Xie, Y. Zhan, C-F. Luo. Radiographic predictors for bone mineral loss: Cortical thickness and index of the distal femur. Bone Joint Res 2018;7:468–475. DOI: 10.1302/2046-3758.77.BJR-2017-0332.R1

Aims. The primary aim of this study was to assess the rate of patient satisfaction one year after total knee arthroplasty (TKA) according to the focus of the question asked. The secondary aims were to identify independent predictors of patient satisfaction according to the focus of the question. Patients and Methods. A retrospective cohort of 2521 patients undergoing a primary unilateral TKA were identified from an established regional arthroplasty database. Patient demographics, comorbidities, Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) and 12-Item Short-Form Health Survey (SF-12) scores were collected preoperatively and one year postoperatively. Patient satisfaction was assessed using four questions, which focused on overall outcome, activity, work, and pain. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent preoperative predictors of increased stiffness when adjusting for confounding variables. Results. Using patient satisfaction with the overall outcome (n = 2265, 89.8%) as the standard, there was no difference in the rate of satisfaction for pain relief (n = 2277, odds ratio (OR) 0.95, 95% confident intervals (CI) 0.79 to 1.14, p = 0.60), but patients were more likely to be dissatisfied with activities (79.3%, n = 2000/2521, OR 2.22, 95% CI 1.96 to 2.70, p < 0.001) and work (85.8%, n = 2163/2521, OR 1.47, 95% CI 1.23 to 1.75, p < 0.001). Logistic regression analysis identified different predictors of satisfaction for each of the focused satisfaction questions. Overall satisfaction was influenced by diabetes (p = 0.03), depression (p = 0.004), back pain (p < 0.001), and SF-12 physical (p = 0.008) and mental (p = 0.01) components. Satisfaction with activities was influenced by depression (p = 0.001), back pain (p < 0.001), WOMAC stiffness score (p = 0.03), and SF-12 physical (p < 0.001) and mental (p < 0.001) components. Satisfaction with work was influenced by depression (p = 0.007), back pain (p < 0.001), WOMAC function (p = 0.04) and stiffness (p = 0.05) scores, and SF-12 physical (p < 0.001) and mental (p < 0.001) components. Satisfaction with pain relief was influenced by diabetes (p < 0.001), back pain (p < 0.001), and SF-12 mental component (p = 0.04). Conclusion. The focus of the satisfaction question significantly influences the rate and the predictors of patient satisfaction after TKA. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2018;100-B:740–8

Aims. The aim of this study was to assess the prognostic value of the modified three-group Stulberg classification, which is based on the sphericity of the femoral head, in patients with Perthes’ disease. Methods. A total of 88 patients were followed from the time of diagnosis until a mean follow-up of 21 years. Anteroposterior pelvic and frog-leg lateral radiographs were obtained at diagnosis and at follow-up of one, five, and 21 years. At the five- and 21-year follow-up, the femoral heads were classified using a modified three-group Stulberg classification (round, ovoid, or flat femoral head). Further radiological endpoints at long-term follow-up were osteoarthritis (OA) of the hip and the requirement for total hip arthroplasty (THA). Results. There were 71 males (81%) and 17 females. A total of 13 patients had bilateral Perthes’ disease; thus 101 hips were analyzed. At five-year follow-up, 37 hips were round, 38 ovoid, and 26 flat. At that time, 66 hips (65%) were healed and 91 (90%) were skeletally immature. At long-term follow-up, when the mean age of the patients was 28 years (24 to 34), 20 hips had an unsatisfactory outcome (seven had OA and 13 had required THA). There was a strongly significant association between the modified Stulberg classification applied atfive-year follow-up and an unsatisfactory outcome at long-term follow-up (p < 0.001). Between the five- and 21-year follow-up, 67 hips (76%) stayed in their respective modified Stulberg group, indicating a strongly significant association between the Stulberg classifications at these follow-ups (p < 0.001). Conclusion. The modified Stulberg classification is a strong predictor of long-term radiological outcome in patients with Perthes’ disease. It can be applied at the healing stage, which is usually reached five years after the diagnosis is made and before skeletal maturity. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(12):1815–1820

Aims. We quantitatively compared the 3D bone density distributions on CT scans performed on scaphoid waist fractures subacutely that went on to union or nonunion, and assessed whether 2D CT evaluations correlate with 3D bone density evaluations. Methods. We constructed 3D models from 17 scaphoid waist fracture CTs performed between four to 18 weeks after fracture that did not unite (nonunion group), 17 age-matched scaphoid waist fracture CTs that healed (union group), and 17 age-matched control CTs without injury (control group). We measured the 3D bone density for the distal and proximal fragments relative to the triquetrum bone density and compared findings among the three groups. We then performed bone density measurements using 2D CT and evaluated the correlation with 3D bone densities. We identified the optimal cutoff with diagnostic values of the 2D method to predict nonunion with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Results. In the nonunion group, both the distal (100.2%) and proximal (126.6%) fragments had a significantly higher bone density compared to the union (distal: 85.7%; proximal: 108.3%) or control groups (distal: 91.6%; proximal: 109.1%) using the 3D bone density measurement, which were statistically significant for all comparisons. 2D measurements were highly correlated to 3D bone density measurements (Spearman’s correlation coefficient (R) = 0.85 to 0.95). Using 2D measurements, ROC curve analysis revealed the optimal cutoffs of 90.8% and 116.3% for distal and proximal fragments. This led to a sensitivity of 1.00 if either cutoff is met and a specificity of 0.82 when both cutoffs are met. Conclusion. Using 3D modelling software, nonunions were found to exhibit bone density increases in both the distal and proximal fragments in CTs performed between four to 18 weeks after fracture during the course of treatment. 2D bone density measurements using standard CT scans correlate well with 3D models. In patients with scaphoid fractures, CT bone density measurements may be useful in predicting the likelihood of nonunion. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(9):1200–1209