There is increasing popularity in the use of artificial intelligence and machine-learning techniques to provide diagnostic and prognostic models for various aspects of Trauma & Orthopaedic surgery. However, correct interpretation of these models is difficult for those without specific knowledge of computing or health data science methodology. Lack of current reporting standards leads to the potential for significant heterogeneity in the design and quality of published studies. We provide an overview of machine-learning techniques for the lay individual, including key terminology and best practice reporting guidelines. Cite this article:
This study used an artificial neural network (ANN) model to determine the most important pre- and perioperative variables to predict same-day discharge in patients undergoing total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Data for this study were collected from the National Surgery Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) database from the year 2018. Patients who received a primary, elective, unilateral TKA with a diagnosis of primary osteoarthritis were included. Demographic, preoperative, and intraoperative variables were analyzed. The ANN model was compared to a logistic regression model, which is a conventional machine-learning algorithm. Variables collected from 28,742 patients were analyzed based on their contribution to hospital length of stay.Aims
Methods
Unicompartmental knee arthroplasty (UKA) is an alternative to total knee arthroplasty with isolated medial or lateral compartment osteoarthritis. However, polyethylene wear can significantly reduce the lifespan of UKA. Different bearing designs and materials for UKA have been developed to change the rate of polyethylene wear. Therefore, the objective of this study is to investigate the effect of insert conformity and material on the predicted wear in mobile-bearing UKA using a previously developed computational wear method. Two different designs were tested with the same femoral component under identical kinematic input: anatomy mimetic design (AMD) and conforming design inserts with different conformity levels. The insert materials were standard or crosslinked ultra-high-molecular-weight polyethylene (UHMWPE). We evaluated the contact pressure, contact area, wear rate, wear depth, and volumetric wear under gait cycle loading conditions.Objectives
Methods
The purpose of this study was to develop a prognostic model for
predicting survival of patients undergoing surgery owing to metastatic
bone disease (MBD) in the appendicular skeleton. We included a historical cohort of 130 consecutive patients (mean
age 64 years, 30 to 85; 76 females/54 males) who underwent joint
arthroplasty surgery (140 procedures) owing to MBD in the appendicular
skeleton during the period between January 2003 and December 2008.
Primary cancer, pre-operative haemoglobin, fracture Aims
Methods
Hip displacement, defined in this study as a
migration percentage (MP) of more than 40%, is a common, debilitating complication
of cerebral palsy (CP). In this prospective study we analysed the
risk of developing hip displacement within five years of the first
pelvic radiograph. All children with CP in southern and western Sweden are invited
to register in the hip surveillance programme CPUP. Inclusion criteria
for the two groups in this study were children from the CPUP database
born between 1994 and 2009 with Gross Motor Function Classification
System (GMFCS) III to V. Group 1 included children who developed
hip displacement, group 2 included children who did not develop
hip displacement over a minimum follow-up of five years. A total
of 145 children were included with a mean age at their initial pelvic
radiograph of 3.5 years (0.6 to 9.7). The odds ratio for hip displacement was calculated for GMFCS-level,
age and initial MP and head-shaft angle. A risk score was constructed
with these variables using multiple logistic regression analysis.
The predictive ability of the risk score was evaluated using the
area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC). All variables had a significant effect on the risk of a MP >
40%. The discriminatory accuracy of the CPUP hip score is high (AUC
= 0.87), indicating a high ability to differentiate between high-
and low-risk individuals for hip displacement. The CPUP hip score
may be useful in deciding on further follow-up and treatment in
children with CP. Cite this article:
We suggest that different mechanisms underlie joint pain at rest and on movement in osteoarthritis and that separate assessment of these two features with a visual analogue scale (VAS) offers better information about the likely effect of a total knee replacement (TKR) on pain. The risk of persistent pain after TKR may relate to the degree of central sensitisation before surgery, which might be assessed by determining the pain threshold to an electrical stimulus created by a special tool, the Pain Matcher. Assessments were performed in 69 patients scheduled for TKR. At 18 months after operation, separate assessment of pain at rest and with movement was again carried out using a VAS in order to enable comparison of pre- and post-operative measurements. A less favourable outcome in terms of pain relief was observed for patients with a high pre-operative VAS score for pain at rest and a low pain threshold, both features which may reflect a central sensitisation mechanism.
Our aim was to investigate the predictive factors for the development
of a rebound phenomenon after temporary hemiepiphysiodesis in children
with genu valgum. We studied 37 limbs with idiopathic genu valgum who were treated
with hemiepiphyseal stapling, and with more than six months remaining
growth at removal of the staples. All children were followed until
skeletal maturity or for more than two years after removal of the
staples.Aims
Patients and Methods
Our aim was to examine the Elixhauser and Charlson comorbidity indices, based on administrative data available before surgery, and to establish their predictive value for mortality for patients who underwent hip arthroplasty in the management of a femoral neck fracture. We analyzed data from 42 354 patients from the Swedish Hip Arthroplasty Register between 2005 and 2012. Only the first operated hip was included for patients with bilateral arthroplasty. We obtained comorbidity data by linkage from the Swedish National Patient Register, as well as death dates from the national population register. We used univariable Cox regression models to predict mortality based on the comorbidity indices, as well as multivariable regression with age and gender. Predictive power was evaluated by a concordance index, ranging from 0.5 to 1 (with the higher value being the better predictive power). A concordance index less than 0.7 was considered poor. We used bootstrapping for internal validation of the results.Aims
Patients and Methods
This study demonstrates a significant correlation
between the American Knee Society (AKS) Clinical Rating System and
the Oxford Knee Score (OKS) and provides a validated prediction
tool to estimate score conversion. A total of 1022 patients were prospectively clinically assessed
five years after TKR and completed AKS assessments and an OKS questionnaire.
Multivariate regression analysis demonstrated significant correlations between
OKS and the AKS knee and function scores but a stronger correlation
(r = 0.68, p <
0.001) when using the sum of the AKS knee and
function scores. Addition of body mass index and age (other statistically
significant predictors of OKS) to the algorithm did not significantly
increase the predictive value. The simple regression model was used to predict the OKS in a
group of 236 patients who were clinically assessed nine to ten years
after TKR using the AKS system. The predicted OKS was compared with
actual OKS in the second group. Intra-class correlation demonstrated
excellent reliability (r = 0.81, 95% confidence intervals 0.75 to
0.85) for the combined knee and function score when used to predict
OKS. Our findings will facilitate comparison of outcome data from
studies and registries using either the OKS or the AKS scores and
may also be of value for those undertaking meta-analyses and systematic
reviews. Cite this article:
The Mangled Extremity Severity Score was applied to 152 patients with severely injured lower limbs. All cases with a score of seven or more required amputation; some with scores of less than seven eventually came to amputation. These observations are discussed.
A prospective study of factors which might help to predict mortality in patients with intracapsular fractures of the femoral neck has been undertaken. A multivariate analysis technique was used to analyse the collected data, and it was found that mental ability was the most significant variable; this factor had the greatest effect on outcome.
We measured the proximal migration of 265 acetabular cups over seven years and correlated the findings with clinical outcome and acetabular revision for aseptic loosening. Cups which eventually became aseptically loose were shown to migrate more rapidly than successful cups. The average proximal migration at two years postoperatively for four groups of cups showed a monotonic relationship to the acetabular revision rate for aseptic loosening at 6.5 years. We conclude that acetabular cups which develop aseptic loosening as evidenced by pain, revision or screw fracture show increased proximal migration by one year, and that the 'migration rate' at two years can be used to predict the acetabular revision rate from aseptic loosening at 6.5 years.
The uptake of 99mTc-MDP was studied in 73 patients after a tibial fracture. The image obtained five minutes after injection during a period between one and four weeks after fracture was found to be related to the incidence of non-union after six months. A ratio of 1.3 between the uptake at the fracture site and at normal bone adjacent to it predicted non-union in an individual patient with a sensitivity of about 70% and a specificity of 90%.
We have studied the correlation between the prevention of progressive collapse and the ratio of the intact articular surface of the femoral head, after transtrochanteric rotational osteotomy for osteonecrosis. We used probit analysis on 125 hips in order to assess the ratio necessary to prevent progressive radiological collapse over a ten-year period. The results show that a minimum postoperative intact ratio of 34% was required. This critical ratio may be useful for surgical planning and in assessing the natural history of the condition.
We report a prospective study of 232 consecutive patients with hip fractures. All were over 64 years of age and living independently before admission to a geriatric orthopaedic ward. We assessed the value, at admission, of predicting factors for independent living at one year after injury. The most important factors were: (1) preinjury function in activities of daily living (grade A or B on the Katz et al (1963) scale); (2) absence of other medical conditions which would impair rehabilitation; and (3) cognitive function better than 7 on the Pfeiffer (1975) mental questionnaire. The odds ratios (95% CI) for these three predictors were 3.5 (1.3 to 9.1), 2.9 (1.3 to 6.1) and 2.4 (1.9 to 4.9), respectively. When all predictors were positive at admission, 92% were living independently at one year; with one, two or three negative predictors, the percentages living independently were 76, 61 and 27, respectively. The median values of the total number of days in hospital, irrespective of diagnosis, during the first year were 12, 24, 29 and 149 days for the four groups. The mortality at one year was predictable on admission only by the number of medical conditions: with no other diagnosis than the fracture the mortality was 0%; with one or two additional conditions the mortality was 14%; and with three or more additional diagnoses it was 24%. These simple and robust predictors can be used to optimise resources for rehabilitation.
We compared a group of 46 somatised patients with a control group of 41 non-somatised patients who had undergone elective surgery to the lumbar spine in an attempt to identify pre-operative factors which could predict the outcome. In a prospective single-centre study, the Distress and Risk Assessment method consisting of a modified somatic perception questionnaire and modified Zung depression index was used pre-operatively to identify somatised patients. The type and number of consultations were correlated with functional indicators of outcome, such as the Oswestry disability index and a visual analogue score for pain in the leg after follow-up for six and 12 months. Similar improvements in the Oswestry disability index were found in the somatised and non-somatised groups. Somatised patients who had a good outcome on the Oswestry disability index had an increased number of orthopaedic consultations (50 of 83 patients (60%) vs 29 of 73 patients (39.7%); p = 0.16) and waited less time for their surgery (5.5 months) (
