Aims. To develop prediction models using machine-learning (ML) algorithms for 90-day and one-year mortality prediction in femoral neck fracture (FNF) patients aged 50 years or older based on the Hip fracture Evaluation with Alternatives of Total Hip arthroplasty versus Hemiarthroplasty (HEALTH) and Fixation using Alternative Implants for the Treatment of Hip fractures (FAITH) trials. Methods. This study included 2,388 patients from the HEALTH and FAITH trials, with 90-day and one-year mortality proportions of 3.0% (71/2,388) and 6.4% (153/2,388), respectively. The mean age was 75.9 years (SD 10.8) and 65.9% of patients (1,574/2,388) were female. The algorithms included patient and injury characteristics. Six algorithms were developed, internally validated and evaluated across discrimination (c-statistic; discriminative ability between those with risk of mortality and those without), calibration (observed outcome compared to the predicted probability), and the Brier score (composite of discrimination and calibration). Results. The developed algorithms distinguished between patients at high and low risk for 90-day and one-year mortality. The penalized logistic regression algorithm had the best performance metrics for both 90-day (c-statistic 0.80, calibration slope 0.95, calibration intercept -0.06, and Brier score 0.039) and one-year (c-statistic 0.76, calibration slope 0.86, calibration intercept -0.20, and Brier score 0.074) mortality prediction in the hold-out set. Conclusion. Using high-quality data, the ML-based prediction models accurately predicted 90-day and one-year mortality in patients aged 50 years or older with a FNF. The final models must be externally validated to assess generalizability to other populations, and prospectively evaluated in the process of shared decision-making. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(3):168–181

Aims. The aim of this study is to report the implant survival and factors associated with revision of total elbow arthroplasty (TEA) using data from the Dutch national registry. Methods. All TEAs recorded in the Dutch national registry between 2014 and 2020 were included. The Kaplan-Meier method was used for survival analysis, and a logistic regression model was used to assess the factors associated with revision. Results. A total of 514 TEAs were included, of which 35 were revised. The five-year implant survival was 91%. Male sex, a higher BMI, and previous surgery to the same elbow showed a statistically significant association with revision (p < 0.036). Of the 35 revised implants, ten (29%) underwent a second revision. Conclusion. This study reports a five-year implant survival of TEA of 91%. Patient factors associated with revision are defined and can be used to optimize informed consent and shared decision-making. There was a high rate of secondary revisions. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(2):110–119

The August 2024 Knee Roundup. 360. looks at: Calcification’s role in knee osteoarthritis: implications for surgical decision-making; Lower complication rates and shorter lengths of hospital stay with technology-assisted total knee arthroplasty; Revision surgery: the hidden burden on surgeons; Are preoperative weight loss interventions worthwhile?; Total knee arthroplasty with or without prior bariatric surgery: a systematic review and meta-analysis; Aspirin triumphs in knee arthroplasty: a decade of evidence; Efficacy of DAIR in unicompartmental knee arthroplasty: a glimpse from Oxford

Aims. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between fracture displacement and survivorship of the native hip joint without conversion to a total hip arthroplasty (THA), and to determine predictors for conversion to THA in patients treated nonoperatively for acetabular fractures. Methods. A multicentre cross-sectional study was performed in 170 patients who were treated nonoperatively for an acetabular fracture in three level 1 trauma centres. Using the post-injury diagnostic CT scan, the maximum gap and step-off values in the weightbearing dome were digitally measured by two trauma surgeons. Native hip survival was reported using Kaplan-Meier curves. Predictors for conversion to THA were determined using Cox regression analysis. Results. Of 170 patients, 22 (13%) subsequently received a THA. Native hip survival in patients with a step-off ≤ 2 mm, > 2 to 4 mm, or > 4 mm differed at five-year follow-up (respectively: 94% vs 70% vs 74%). Native hip survival in patients with a gap ≤ 2 mm, > 2 to 4 mm, or > 4 mm differed at five-year follow-up (respectively: 100% vs 84% vs 78%). Step-off displacement > 2 mm (> 2 to 4 mm hazard ratio (HR) 4.9, > 4 mm HR 5.6) and age > 60 years (HR 2.9) were independent predictors for conversion to THA at follow-up. Conclusion. Patients with minimally displaced acetabular fractures who opt for nonoperative fracture treatment may be informed that fracture displacement (e.g. gap and step-off) up to 2 mm, as measured on CT images, results in limited risk on conversion to THA. Step-off ≥ 2 mm and age > 60 years are predictors for conversion to THA and can be helpful in the shared decision-making process. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(9):1020–1029

Aims. The ‘pink, pulseless hand’ is often used to describe the clinical situation in which a child with a supracondylar fracture of the humerus has normal distal perfusion in the absence of a palpable peripheral pulse. The management guidelines are based on the assessment of perfusion, which is difficult to undertake and poorly evaluated objectively. The aim of this study was to review the available literature in order to explore the techniques available for the preoperative clinical assessment of perfusion in these patients and to evaluate the clinical implications. Methods. A systematic literature review was conducted using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines and registered prospectively with the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews. Databases were explored in June 2022 with the search terms (pulseless OR dysvascular OR ischaemic OR perfused OR vascular injury) AND supracondylar AND (fracture OR fractures). Results. A total of 573 papers were identified as being suitable for further study, and 25 met the inclusion criteria for detailed analysis. These studies included a total of 504 patients with a perfused, pulseless limb associated with a supracondylar humeral fracture. Clinical examination included skin colour (23 studies (92%)), temperature (16 studies (64%)), and capillary refill time (13 studies (52%)). Other investigations included peripheral oxygen saturation (SaO2) (six studies (24%)), ultrasound (US) (14 (56%)), and CT angiogram (two studies (8.0%)). The parameters of ‘normal perfusion’ were often not objectively defined. The time to surgery ranged from 1.5 to 12 hours. A total of 412 patients (82%) were definitively treated with closed or open reduction and fixation, and 92 (18%) required vascular intervention, ranging from simple release of entrapped vessels to vascular grafts. Conclusion. The description of the vascular assessment of the patient with a supracondylar humeral fracture and a pulseless limb in the literature is variable, with few objective criteria being used to define perfusion. The evidence base for decision-making is limited, and further research is required. We were able, however, to make some recommendations about objective criteria for the assessment of these patients, and we suggest that these are performed frequently to allow the detection of any deterioration of perfusion. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(3):231–238

Aims. Symptomatic spinal stenosis is a very common problem, and decompression surgery has been shown to be superior to nonoperative treatment in selected patient groups. However, performing an instrumented fusion in addition to decompression may avoid revision and improve outcomes. The aim of the SpInOuT feasibility study was to establish whether a definitive randomized controlled trial (RCT) that accounted for the spectrum of pathology contributing to spinal stenosis, including pelvic incidence-lumbar lordosis (PI-LL) mismatch and mobile spondylolisthesis, could be conducted. Methods. As part of the SpInOuT-F study, a pilot randomized trial was carried out across five NHS hospitals. Patients were randomized to either spinal decompression alone or spinal decompression plus instrumented fusion. Patient-reported outcome measures were collected at baseline and three months. The intended sample size was 60 patients. Results. Of the 90 patients screened, 77 passed the initial screening criteria. A total of 27 patients had a PI-LL mismatch and 23 had a dynamic spondylolisthesis. Following secondary inclusion and exclusion criteria, 31 patients were eligible for the study. Six patients were randomized and one underwent surgery during the study period. Given the low number of patients recruited and randomized, it was not possible to assess completion rates, quality of life, imaging, or health economic outcomes as intended. Conclusion. This study provides a unique insight into the prevalence of dynamic spondylolisthesis and PI-LL mismatch in patients with symptomatic spinal stenosis, and demonstrates that there is a need for a definitive RCT which stratifies for these groups in order to inform surgical decision-making. Nonetheless a definitive study would need further refinement in design and implementation in order to be feasible. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(8):573–579

Prediction tools are instruments which are commonly used to estimate the prognosis in oncology and facilitate clinical decision-making in a more personalized manner. Their popularity is shown by the increasing numbers of prediction tools, which have been described in the medical literature. Many of these tools have been shown to be useful in the field of soft-tissue sarcoma of the extremities (eSTS). In this annotation, we aim to provide an overview of the available prediction tools for eSTS, provide an approach for clinicians to evaluate the performance and usefulness of the available tools for their own patients, and discuss their possible applications in the management of patients with an eSTS. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(9):1011–1016

Aims. This study aimed to gather insights from elbow experts using the Delphi method to evaluate the influence of patient characteristics and fracture morphology on the choice between operative and nonoperative treatment for coronoid fractures. Methods. A three-round electronic (e-)modified Delphi survey study was performed between March and December 2023. A total of 55 elbow surgeons from Asia, Australia, Europe, and North America participated, with 48 completing all questionnaires (87%). The panellists evaluated the factors identified as important in literature for treatment decision-making, using a Likert scale ranging from "strongly influences me to recommend nonoperative treatment" (1) to "strongly influences me to recommend operative treatment" (5). Factors achieving Likert scores ≤ 2.0 or ≥ 4.0 were deemed influential for treatment recommendation. Stable consensus is defined as an agreement of ≥ 80% in the second and third rounds. Results. Of 68 factors considered important in the literature for treatment choice for coronoid fractures, 18 achieved a stable consensus to be influential. Influential factors with stable consensus that advocate for operative treatment were being a professional athlete, playing overhead sports, a history of subjective dislocation or subluxation during trauma, open fracture, crepitation with range of movement, > 2 mm opening during varus stress on radiological imaging, and having an anteromedial facet or basal coronoid fracture (O’Driscoll type 2 or 3). An anterolateral coronoid tip fracture ≤ 2 mm was the only influential factor with a stable consensus that advocates for nonoperative treatment. Most disagreement existed regarding the treatment for the terrible triad injury with an anterolateral coronoid tip fracture fragment ≤ 2 mm (O’Driscoll type 1 subtype 1). Conclusion. This study gives insights into areas of consensus among surveyed elbow surgeons in choosing between operative and nonoperative management of coronoid fractures. These findings should be used in conjunction with previous patient cohort studies when discussing treatment options with patients. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(10):1150–1157

Aims. Lower limb fractures are common in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and represent a significant burden to the existing orthopaedic surgical infrastructure. In high income country (HIC) settings, internal fixation is the standard of care due to its superior outcomes. In LMICs, external fixation is often the surgical treatment of choice due to limited supplies, cost considerations, and its perceived lower complication rate. The aim of this systematic review protocol is identifying differences in rates of infection, nonunion, and malunion of extra-articular femoral and tibial shaft fractures in LMICs treated with either internal or external fixation. Methods. This systematic review protocol describes a broad search of multiple databases to identify eligible papers. Studies must be published after 2000, include at least five patients, patients must be aged > 16 years or treated as skeletally mature, and the paper must describe a fracture of interest and at least one of our primary outcomes of interest. We did not place restrictions on language or journal. All abstracts and full texts will be screened and extracted by two independent reviewers. Risk of bias and quality of evidence will be analyzed using standardized appraisal tools. A random-effects meta-analysis followed by a subgroup analysis will be performed, given the anticipated heterogeneity among studies, if sufficient data are available. Conclusion. The lack of easily accessible LMIC outcome data, combined with international clinical guidelines that are often developed by HIC surgeons for use in HIC environments, makes the clinical decision-making process infinitely more difficult for surgeons in LMICs. This protocol will guide research on surgical management, outcomes, and complications of lower limb shaft fractures in LMICs, and can help guide policy development for better surgical intervention delivery and improve global surgical care. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(11):1020–1026

Aims. This study aimed to analyze kinematics and kinetics of the tibiofemoral joint in healthy subjects with valgus, neutral, and varus limb alignment throughout multiple gait activities using dynamic videofluoroscopy. Methods. Five subjects with valgus, 12 with neutral, and ten with varus limb alignment were assessed during multiple complete cycles of level walking, downhill walking, and stair descent using a combination of dynamic videofluoroscopy, ground reaction force plates, and optical motion capture. Following 2D/3D registration, tibiofemoral kinematics and kinetics were compared between the three limb alignment groups. Results. No significant differences for the rotational or translational patterns between the different limb alignment groups were found for level walking, downhill walking, or stair descent. Neutral and varus aligned subjects showed a mean centre of rotation located on the medial condyle for the loaded stance phase of all three gait activities. Valgus alignment, however, resulted in a centrally located centre of rotation for level and downhill walking, but a more medial centre of rotation during stair descent. Knee adduction/abduction moments were significantly influenced by limb alignment, with an increasing knee adduction moment from valgus through neutral to varus. Conclusion. Limb alignment was not reflected in the condylar kinematics, but did significantly affect the knee adduction moment. Variations in frontal plane limb alignment seem not to be a main modulator of condylar kinematics. The presented data provide insights into the influence of anatomical parameters on tibiofemoral kinematics and kinetics towards enhancing clinical decision-making and surgical restoration of natural knee joint motion and loading. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2024;13(9):485–496

Aims. This study aimed to investigate patients’ attitudes towards day-case hip and knee arthroplasty and to describe patient characteristics associated with different attitudes, with the purpose of providing an insight into the information requirements for patients that surgeons should address when informing patients about day-case surgery. Methods. A total of 5,322 patients scheduled for hip or knee arthroplasty between 2016 and 2022 were included in the study. Preoperatively, patients were asked if they were interested in day-case surgery (‘Yes’, ‘Do not know’, ‘No’). Patient demographics including age, BMI, sex, and patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) such as the EuroQol five-dimension three-level questionnaire (EQ-5D-3L) were examined within each attitude group. Additionally, changes in attitude were assessed among patients who had completed the questionnaire in association with prior hip or knee arthroplasty. Results. Of the surveyed patients, 41.8% were interested in day-case surgery (n = 2,222), 20.8% responded ‘Do not know’ (n = 1,105), and 37.5% were not interested (n = 1,995). Patients who were not interested had a higher mean age (‘No’, 70.2 years (SD 10.0) vs ‘Yes’, 65.2 years (SD 10.7)), with a majority being female (‘No’, 71.9% female (n = 1,434) vs ‘Yes’, 48.6% female (n = 1,081)). Approximately 20% of patients responded ‘Do not know’ regardless of age, sex, and PROMs. Patients reporting anxiety/depression based on EQ-5D-3L more frequently answered ‘No’ (56.9%; 66/116) compared to those not experiencing anxiety/depression (34.9%; 1,356/3,890). Among patients who responded ‘Do not know’ before their first surgery, over 70% changed their attitude to either ‘Yes’ (29.9%; 38/127) or ‘No’ (40.9%; 52/127) at their subsequent surgery. Conclusion. From 2016 to 2022, 58.3% of hip and knee arthroplasty patients expressed uncertainty or no interest in day-case surgery. In connection with current initiatives to increase the number of day-case arthroplasty procedures, there should be a focus on informing patients to address the prevalent negative or uncertain attitude. Further research is needed to investigate what preoperative information patients consider crucial in their decision-making process regarding day-case surgery. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(3 Supple A):3–9

Aims. Machine learning (ML) holds significant promise in optimizing various aspects of total shoulder arthroplasty (TSA), potentially improving patient outcomes and enhancing surgical decision-making. The aim of this systematic review was to identify ML algorithms and evaluate their effectiveness, including those for predicting clinical outcomes and those used in image analysis. Methods. We searched the PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials databases for studies applying ML algorithms in TSA. The analysis focused on dataset characteristics, relevant subspecialties, specific ML algorithms used, and their performance outcomes. Results. Following the final screening process, 25 articles satisfied the eligibility criteria for our review. Of these, 60% focused on tabular data while the remaining 40% analyzed image data. Among them, 16 studies were dedicated to developing new models and nine used transfer learning to leverage existing pretrained models. Additionally, three of these models underwent external validation to confirm their reliability and effectiveness. Conclusion. ML algorithms used in TSA demonstrated fair to good performance, as evidenced by the reported metrics. Integrating these models into daily clinical practice could revolutionize TSA, enhancing both surgical precision and patient outcome predictions. Despite their potential, the lack of transparency and generalizability in many current models poses a significant challenge, limiting their clinical utility. Future research should prioritize addressing these limitations to truly propel the field forward and maximize the benefits of ML in enhancing patient care. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2025;6(2):126–134

Aims. The management of mid-shaft clavicle fractures (MSCFs) has evolved over the last three decades. Controversy exists over which specific fracture patterns to treat and when. This review aims to synthesize the literature in order to formulate an appropriate management algorithm for these injuries in both adolescents and adults. Methods. This is a systematic review of clinical studies comparing the outcomes of operative and nonoperative treatments for MSCFs in the past 15 years. The literature was searched using, PubMed, Google scholar, OVID Medline, and Embase. All databases were searched with identical search terms: mid-shaft clavicle fractures (± fixation) (± nonoperative). Results. Using the search criteria identified, 247 studies were deemed eligible. Following initial screening, 220 studies were excluded on the basis that they were duplicates and/or irrelevant to the research question being posed. A total of 27 full-text articles remained and were included in the final review. The majority of the meta-analyses draw the same conclusions, which are that operatively treated fractures have lower nonunion and malunion rates but that, in those fractures which unite (either operative or nonoperative), the functional outcomes are the same at six months. Conclusion. With regard to the adolescent population, the existing body of evidence is insufficient to support the use of routine operative management. Regarding adult fractures, the key to identifying patients who benefit from operative management lies in the identification of risk factors for nonunion. We present an algorithm that can be used to guide both the patient and the surgeon in a joint decision-making process, in order to optimize patient satisfaction and outcomes. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(11):850–858

Aims. The aim of this study was to describe services available to patients with periprosthetic femoral fracture (PPFF) in England and Wales, with focus on variation between centres and areas for care improvement. Methods. This work used data freely available from the National Hip Fracture Database (NHFD) facilities survey in 2021, which asked 21 questions about the care of patients with PPFFs, and nine relating to clinical decision-making around a hypothetical case. Results. Of 174 centres contributing data to the NHFD, 161 provided full responses and 139 submitted data on PPFF. Lack of resources was cited as the main reason for not submitting data. Surgeon (44.6%) and theatre (29.7%) availability were reported as the primary reasons for surgical delay beyond 36 hours. Less than half had a formal process for a specialist surgeon to operate on PPFF at least every other day. The median number of specialist surgeons at each centre was four (interquartile range (IQR) 3 to 6) for PPFF around both hips and knees. Around one-third of centres reported having one dedicated theatre list per week. The routine discussion of patients with PPFF at local and regional multidisciplinary team meetings was lower than that for all-cause revision arthroplasties. Six centres reported transferring all patients with PPFF around a hip joint to another centre for surgery, and this was an occasional practice for a further 34. The management of the hypothetical clinical scenario was varied, with 75 centres proposing ORIF, 35 suggested revision surgery and 48 proposed a combination of both revision and fixation. Conclusion. There is considerable variation in both the organization of PPFF services England and Wales, and in the approach taken to an individual case. The rising incidence of PPFF and complexity of these patients highlight the need for pathway development. The adoption of networks may reduce variability and improve outcomes for patients with PPFF. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(5):378–384

Aims. The aim of the study was to apply 3D measurements for fracture displacement in minimally to moderately displaced acetabular fractures treated nonoperatively, and to evaluate whether this measurement can be used to estimate the likelihood of conversion to total hip arthroplasty (THA) at follow-up. Methods. A multicentre, cross-sectional study was performed on 144 patients who were treated nonoperatively for an acetabular fracture in four level 1 trauma centres between January 2000 and December 2020. For each patient, fracture displacement was measured on CT-based 3D models. The 3D gap area represents fracture displacement (mm. 2. ) between all fracture fragments. A receiver operating characteristic curve was generated to determine a 3D gap area threshold representing the optimal sensitivity and specificity to predict conversion to THA. Native hip survival was reported using Kaplan-Meier curves. Predictors of conversion to THA were determined using Cox regression analysis. Results. Of 144 patients, 18 (12%) received a THA. The median 3D gap area of the complete study cohort was 692 mm. 2. (IQR 216 to 1,400). Native hip survival in patients with a gap area threshold ≤ 1,171 or > 1,171 mm. 2. differed at one-year (98% vs 85%), two-year (96% vs 77%), and five-year follow-up (92% vs 73%). 3D gap area > 1,171 mm. 2. (hazard ratio (HR) 4.3; 95% CI 1.7 to 11.0) and the presence of osteoarthritis grade 2 or higher (HR 3.1; 95% CI 1.2 to 7.8) independently predicted the likelihood of conversion to THA during follow-up. Conclusion. For nonoperatively treated acetabular fractures, introducing 3D gap area assessment to measure fracture displacement offers a promising approach for assessing the risk of conversion to THA. With the introduction of (semi-)automatic segmentation and measurement techniques, or their implementation into commercially available software, this 3D gap area measurement can serve as an addition to the Letournel classification and an alternative to traditional 2D gap and step-off measurements, improving accuracy, reproducibility, and applicability in clinical decision-making. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2025;107-B(2):204–212

Aims. The aims of this study were to validate the Forgotten Joint Score-12 (FJS-12) in the postoperative evaluation of periacetabular osteotomy (PAO), identify factors associated with joint awareness after PAO, and determine the FJS-12 threshold for patient-acceptable symptom state (PASS). Methods. Data from 686 patients (882 hips) with hip dysplasia who underwent transposition osteotomy of the acetabulum, a type of PAO, between 1998 and 2019 were reviewed. After screening the study included 442 patients (582 hips; response rate, 78%). Patients who completed a study questionnaire consisting of the visual analogue scale (VAS) for pain and satisfaction, FJS-12, and Hip disability and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (HOOS) were included. The ceiling effects, internal consistency, convergent validity, and PASS thresholds of FJS-12 were investigated. Results. The median follow-up was 12 years (interquartile range 7 to 16). The ceiling effect of FJS-12 was 7.2%, the lowest of all the measures examined. FJS-12 correlated with all HOOS subscales (ρ = 0.72 to 0.77, p < 0.001) and pain and satisfaction-VAS (ρ = -0.63 and 0.56, p < 0.001), suggesting good convergent validity. Cronbach’s α was 0.95 for the FJS-12, which indicated excellent internal consistency. The median FJS-12 score for preoperative Tönnis grade 0 hips (60 points) was higher than that for grade 1 (51 points) or 2 (46 points). When PASS was defined as pain-VAS < 21 and satisfaction-VAS ≥ 77, the FJS-12 threshold that maximized the sensitivity and specificity for detecting PASS was 50 points (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.85). Conclusion. Our results suggest that FJS-12 is a valid and reliable assessment tool for patients undergoing PAO, and the threshold of 50 points may be useful to determine patient satisfaction following PAO in clinical settings. Further investigation of the factors influencing postoperative joint awareness may enable improved prediction of treatment efficacy and informed decision-making regarding the indication of PAO. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(7):760–767

Aims. This study aimed to compare the performance of survival prediction models for bone metastases of the extremities (BM-E) with pathological fractures in an Asian cohort, and investigate patient characteristics associated with survival. Methods. This retrospective cohort study included 469 patients, who underwent surgery for BM-E between January 2009 and March 2022 at a tertiary hospital in South Korea. Postoperative survival was calculated using the PATHFx3.0, SPRING13, OPTIModel, SORG, and IOR models. Model performance was assessed with area under the curve (AUC), calibration curve, Brier score, and decision curve analysis. Cox regression analyses were performed to evaluate the factors contributing to survival. Results. The SORG model demonstrated the highest discriminatory accuracy with AUC (0.80 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.76 to 0.85)) at 12 months. In calibration analysis, the PATHfx3.0 and OPTIModel models underestimated survival, while the SPRING13 and IOR models overestimated survival. The SORG model exhibited excellent calibration with intercepts of 0.10 (95% CI -0.13 to 0.33) at 12 months. The SORG model also had lower Brier scores than the null score at three and 12 months, indicating good overall performance. Decision curve analysis showed that all five survival prediction models provided greater net benefit than the default strategy of operating on either all or no patients. Rapid growth cancer and low serum albumin levels were associated with three-, six-, and 12-month survival. Conclusion. State-of-art survival prediction models for BM-E (PATHFx3.0, SPRING13, OPTIModel, SORG, and IOR models) are useful clinical tools for orthopaedic surgeons in the decision-making process for the treatment in Asian patients, with SORG models offering the best predictive performance. Rapid growth cancer and serum albumin level are independent, statistically significant factors contributing to survival following surgery of BM-E. Further refinement of survival prediction models will bring about informed and patient-specific treatment of BM-E. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(2):203–211

Aims. While cementless fixation offers potential advantages over cemented fixation, such as a shorter operating time, concerns linger over its higher cost and increased risk of periprosthetic fractures. If the risk of fracture can be forecasted, it would aid the shared decision-making process related to cementless stems. Our study aimed to develop and validate predictive models of periprosthetic femoral fracture (PPFF) necessitating revision and reoperation after elective total hip arthroplasty (THA). Methods. We included 154,519 primary elective THAs from the Swedish Arthroplasty Register (SAR), encompassing 21 patient-, surgical-, and implant-specific features, for model derivation and validation in predicting 30-day, 60-day, 90-day, and one-year revision and reoperation due to PPFF. Model performance was tested using the area under the curve (AUC), and feature importance was identified in the best-performing algorithm. Results. The Lasso regression excelled in predicting 30-day revisions (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.85), while the Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) model outperformed other models by a slight margin for all remaining endpoints (AUC range: 0.79 to 0.86). Predictive factors for revision and reoperation were identified, with patient features such as increasing age, higher American Society of Anesthesiologists grade (> III), and World Health Organization obesity classes II to III associated with elevated risks. A preoperative diagnosis of idiopathic necrosis increased revision risk. Concerning implant design, factors such as cementless femoral fixation, reverse-hybrid fixation, hip resurfacing, and small (< 35 mm) or large (> 52 mm) femoral heads increased both revision and reoperation risks. Conclusion. This is the first study to develop machine-learning models to forecast the risk of PPFF necessitating secondary surgery. Future studies are required to externally validate our algorithm and assess its applicability in clinical practice. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2025;14(1):46–57

Aims. Repeated lumbar spine surgery has been associated with inferior clinical outcomes. This study aimed to examine and quantify the impact of this association in a national clinical register cohort. Methods. This is a population-based study from the Norwegian Registry for Spine surgery (NORspine). We included 26,723 consecutive cases operated for lumbar spinal stenosis or lumbar disc herniation from January 2007 to December 2018. The primary outcome was the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI), presented as the proportions reaching a patient-acceptable symptom state (PASS; defined as an ODI raw score ≤ 22) and ODI raw and change scores at 12-month follow-up. Secondary outcomes were the Global Perceived Effect scale, the numerical rating scale for pain, the EuroQoL five-dimensions health questionnaire, occurrence of perioperative complications and wound infections, and working capability. Binary logistic regression analysis was conducted to examine how the number of previous operations influenced the odds of not reaching a PASS. Results. The proportion reaching a PASS decreased from 66.0% (95% confidence interval (CI) 65.4 to 66.7) in cases with no previous operation to 22.0% (95% CI 15.2 to 30.3) in cases with four or more previous operations (p < 0.001). The odds of not reaching a PASS were 2.1 (95% CI 1.9 to 2.2) in cases with one previous operation, 2.6 (95% CI 2.3 to 3.0) in cases with two, 4.4 (95% CI 3.4 to 5.5) in cases with three, and 6.9 (95% CI 4.5 to 10.5) in cases with four or more previous operations. The ODI raw and change scores and the secondary outcomes showed similar trends. Conclusion. We found a dose-response relationship between increasing number of previous operations and inferior outcomes among patients operated for degenerative conditions in the lumbar spine. This information should be considered in the shared decision-making process prior to elective spine surgery. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(4):422–430

Aims. This study aimed to explore the biological and clinical importance of dysregulated key genes in osteoarthritis (OA) patients at the cartilage level to find potential biomarkers and targets for diagnosing and treating OA. Methods. Six sets of gene expression profiles were obtained from the Gene Expression Omnibus database. Differential expression analysis, weighted gene coexpression network analysis (WGCNA), and multiple machine-learning algorithms were used to screen crucial genes in osteoarthritic cartilage, and genome enrichment and functional annotation analyses were used to decipher the related categories of gene function. Single-sample gene set enrichment analysis was performed to analyze immune cell infiltration. Correlation analysis was used to explore the relationship among the hub genes and immune cells, as well as markers related to articular cartilage degradation and bone mineralization. Results. A total of 46 genes were obtained from the intersection of significantly upregulated genes in osteoarthritic cartilage and the key module genes screened by WGCNA. Functional annotation analysis revealed that these genes were closely related to pathological responses associated with OA, such as inflammation and immunity. Four key dysregulated genes (cartilage acidic protein 1 (CRTAC1), iodothyronine deiodinase 2 (DIO2), angiopoietin-related protein 2 (ANGPTL2), and MAGE family member D1 (MAGED1)) were identified after using machine-learning algorithms. These genes had high diagnostic value in both the training cohort and external validation cohort (receiver operating characteristic > 0.8). The upregulated expression of these hub genes in osteoarthritic cartilage signified higher levels of immune infiltration as well as the expression of metalloproteinases and mineralization markers, suggesting harmful biological alterations and indicating that these hub genes play an important role in the pathogenesis of OA. A competing endogenous RNA network was constructed to reveal the underlying post-transcriptional regulatory mechanisms. Conclusion. The current study explores and validates a dysregulated key gene set in osteoarthritic cartilage that is capable of accurately diagnosing OA and characterizing the biological alterations in osteoarthritic cartilage; this may become a promising indicator in clinical decision-making. This study indicates that dysregulated key genes play an important role in the development and progression of OA, and may be potential therapeutic targets. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2024;13(2):66–82