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The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 93-B, Issue 9 | Pages 1183 - 1188
1 Sep 2011
Biau DJ Meziane M Bhumbra RS Dumaine V Babinet A Anract P

The purpose of this study was to define immediate post-operative ‘quality’ in total hip replacements and to study prospectively the occurrence of failure based on these definitions of quality. The evaluation and assessment of failure were based on ten radiological and clinical criteria. The cumulative summation (CUSUM) test was used to study 200 procedures over a one-year period. Technical criteria defined failure in 17 cases (8.5%), those related to the femoral component in nine (4.5%), the acetabular component in 32 (16%) and those relating to discharge from hospital in five (2.5%). Overall, the procedure was considered to have failed in 57 of the 200 total hip replacements (28.5%). The use of a new design of acetabular component was associated with more failures. For the CUSUM test, the level of adequate performance was set at a rate of failure of 20% and the level of inadequate performance set at a failure rate of 40%; no alarm was raised by the test, indicating that there was no evidence of inadequate performance.

The use of a continuous monitoring statistical method is useful to ensure that the quality of total hip replacement is maintained, especially as newer implants are introduced.


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 93-B, Issue 11 | Pages 1537 - 1544
1 Nov 2011
McGovern PD Albrecht M G. Belani K Nachtsheim C Partington PF Carluke I Reed MR

We investigated the capacity of patient warming devices to disrupt the ultra-clean airflow system. We compared the effects of two patient warming technologies, forced-air and conductive fabric, on operating theatre ventilation during simulated hip replacement and lumbar spinal procedures using a mannequin as a patient. Infection data were reviewed to determine whether joint infection rates were associated with the type of patient warming device that was used.

Neutral-buoyancy detergent bubbles were released adjacent to the mannequin’s head and at floor level to assess the movement of non-sterile air into the clean airflow over the surgical site. During simulated hip replacement, bubble counts over the surgical site were greater for forced-air than for conductive fabric warming when the anaesthesia/surgery drape was laid down (p = 0.010) and at half-height (p < 0.001). For lumbar surgery, forced-air warming generated convection currents that mobilised floor air into the surgical site area. Conductive fabric warming had no such effect.

A significant increase in deep joint infection, as demonstrated by an elevated infection odds ratio (3.8, p = 0.024), was identified during a period when forced-air warming was used compared to a period when conductive fabric warming was used. Air-free warming is, therefore, recommended over forced-air warming for orthopaedic procedures.


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 92-B, Issue 11 | Pages 1600 - 1605
1 Nov 2010
Rimington TR Edwards SG Lynch TS Pehlivanova MB

The purposes of this study were to define the range of laxity of the interosseous ligaments in cadaveric wrists and to determine whether this correlated with age, the morphology of the lunate, the scapholunate (SL) gap or the SL angle. We evaluated 83 fresh-frozen cadaveric wrists and recorded the SL gap and SL angle. Standard arthroscopy of the wrist was then performed and the grades of laxity of the scapholunate interosseous ligament (SLIL) and the lunotriquetral interosseous ligament (LTIL) and the morphology of the lunate were recorded. Arthroscopic evaluation of the SLIL revealed four (5%) grade I specimens, 28 (34%) grade II, 40 (48%) grade III and 11 (13%) grade IV. Evaluation of the LTIL showed 17 (20%) grade I specimens, 40 (48%) grade II, 28 (30%) grade III and one (1%) grade IV.

On both bivariate and multivariate analysis, the grade of both the SLIL and LTIL increased with age, but decreased with female gender. The grades of SLIL or LTIL did not correlate with the morphology of the lunate, the SL gap or the SL angle. The physiological range of laxity at the SL and lunotriquetral joints is wider than originally described. The intercarpal ligaments demonstrate an age-related progression of laxity of the SL and lunotriquetral joints. There is no correlation between the grades of laxity of the SLIL or LTIL and the morphology of the lunate, the SL gap or the SL grade. Based on our results, we believe that the Geissler classification has a role in describing intercarpal laxity, but if used alone it cannot adequately diagnose pathological instability.

We suggest a modified classification with a mechanism that may distinguish physiological laxity from pathological instability.


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 91-B, Issue 9 | Pages 1178 - 1182
1 Sep 2009
Hakki S Coleman S Saleh K Bilotta VJ Hakki A

The requirement for release of collateral ligaments to achieve a stable, balanced total knee replacement has been reported to arise in about 50% to 100% of procedures. This wide range reflects a lack of standardised quantitative indicators to determine the necessity for a release. Using recent advances in computerised navigation, we describe two navigational predictors which provide quantitative measures that can be used to identify the need for release. The first was the ability to restore the mechanical axis before any bone resection was performed and the second was the discrepancy in the measured medial and lateral joint spaces after the tibial osteotomy, but before any femoral resection.

These predictors showed a significant association with the need for collateral ligament release (p < 0.001). The first predictor using the knee stress test in extension showed a sensitivity of 100% and a specificity of 98% and the second, the difference between medial and lateral gaps in millimetres, a sensitivity of 83% and a specificity of 95%. The use of the two navigational predictors meant that only ten of the 93 patients required collateral ligament release to achieve a stable, neutral knee.


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 93-B, Issue 2 | Pages 229 - 236
1 Feb 2011
Briffa N Pearce R Hill AM Bircher M

We report the outcome of 161 of 257 surgically fixed acetabular fractures. The operations were undertaken between 1989 and 1998 and the patients were followed for a minimum of ten years. Anthropometric data, fracture pattern, time to surgery, associated injuries, surgical approach, complications and outcome were recorded. Modified Merle D’Aubigné score and Matta radiological scoring systems were used as outcome measures. We observed simple fractures in 108 patients (42%) and associated fractures in 149 (58%).

The result was excellent in 75 patients (47%), good in 41 (25%), fair in 12 (7%) and poor in 33 (20%). Poor prognostic factors included increasing age, delay to surgery, quality of reduction and some fracture patterns. Complications were common in the medium- to long-term and functional outcome was variable. The gold-standard treatment for displaced acetabular fractures remains open reduction and internal fixation performed in dedicated units by specialist surgeons as soon as possible.


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 92-B, Issue 9 | Pages 1245 - 1252
1 Sep 2010
Song EK Seon JK Park SJ Jeong MS

We compared the incidence and severity of complications during and after closing- and opening-wedge high tibial osteotomy used for the treatment of varus arthritis of the knee, and identified the risk factors associated with the development of complications. In total, 104 patients underwent laterally based closing-wedge and 90 medial opening-wedge high tibial osteotomy between January 1993 and December 2006. The characteristics of each group were similar. All the patients were followed up for more than 12 months. We assessed the outcome using the Hospital for Special Surgery knee score, and recorded the complications. Age, gender, obesity (body mass index > 27.5 kg/m2), the type of osteotomy (closing versus opening) and the pre-operative mechanical axis were subjected to risk-factor analysis.

The mean Hospital for Special Surgery score in the closing and opening groups improved from 73.4 (54 to 86) to 91.8 (81 to 100) and from 73.8 (56 to 88) to 93 (84 to 100), respectively. The incidence of complications overall and of major complications in both groups was not significantly different (p = 0.20 overall complication, p = 0.29 major complication). Logistic regression analysis adjusting for obesity and the pre-operative mechanical axis showed that obesity remained a significant independent risk factor (odds ratio = 3.23) of a major complication after high tibial osteotomy.

Our results suggest that the opening-wedge high tibial osteotomy can be an alternative treatment option for young patients with medial compartment osteoarthritis and varus deformity.


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 93-B, Issue 3 | Pages 337 - 344
1 Mar 2011
Yoo JH Chang CB Kang YG Kim SJ Seong SC Kim TK

We aimed to document the pre-operative expectations in Korean patients undergoing total knee replacement using an established survey form and to determine whether expectations were influenced by sociodemographic factors or pre-operative functional status. Expectations regarding 17 items in the Knee Replacement Expectation Survey form were investigated in 454 patients scheduled for total knee replacement. The levels and distribution patterns of summated expectation and of five expectation categories (relief from pain, baseline activity, high flexion activity, social activity and psychological well-being) constructed from the 17 items were assessed. Univariate analyses and multivariate logistic regression were performed to examine the associations of expectations with the sociodemographic factors and the functional status.

The top three expectations were relief from pain, restoration of walking ability, and psychological well-being. Of the five expectation categories, relief from pain was ranked the highest, followed by psychological well-being, restoration of baseline activity, ability to perform high flexion activities and ability to participate in social activities. An age of < 65 years, being employed, a high Western Ontario and McMaster Universities osteoarthritis index function score and a low Short-form 36 social score were found to be significantly associated with higher overall expectations.


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 90-B, Issue 11 | Pages 1468 - 1472
1 Nov 2008
Kim H Moon S Kim H Moon E Chun H Jung M Lee H

We reviewed 87 patients who had undergone expansive cervical laminoplasty between 1999 and 2005. These were divided into two groups: those who had diabetes mellitus and those who did not. There were 31 patients in the diabetes group and 56 in the control group. Although a significant improvement in the Japanese Orthopaedic Association score was seen in both groups, the post-operative recovery rate in the control group was better than that of the diabetic group. The patients’ age and symptom duration adversely affected the rate of recovery in the diabetic group only. Smoking did not affect the outcome in either group. A logistic regression analysis found diabetes and signal changes in the spinal cord on MRI to be significant risk factors for a poor outcome (odds ratio 2.86, 3.02, respectively). Furthermore, the interaction of diabetes with smoking and/or age increased this risk.

We conclude that diabetes mellitus, or the interaction of this with old age, can adversely affect outcome after cervical laminoplasty. However, smoking alone cannot be regarded as a risk factor.


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 90-B, Issue 9 | Pages 1239 - 1243
1 Sep 2008
Zhang N Li ZR Wei H Liu Z Hernigou P

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a newly described infectious disease caused by the SARS coronavirus which attacks the immune system and pulmonary epithelium. It is treated with regular high doses of corticosteroids. Our aim was to determine the relationship between the dosage of steroids and the number and distribution of osteonecrotic lesions in patients treated with steroids during the SARS epidemic in Beijing, China in 2003.

We identified 114 patients for inclusion in the study. Of these, 43 with osteonecrosis received a significantly higher cumulative and peak methylprednisolone-equivalent dose than 71 patients with no osteonecrosis identified by MRI. We confirmed that the number of osteonecrotic lesions was directly related to the dosage of steroids and that a very high dose, a peak dose of more than 200 mg or a cumulative methylprednisolone-equivalent dose of more than 4000 mg, is a significant risk factor for multifocal osteonecrosis with both epiphyseal and diaphyseal lesions. Patients with diaphyseal osteonecrosis received a significantly higher cumulative methylprednisolone-equivalent dose than those with epiphyseal osteonecrosis. Multifocal osteonecrosis should be suspected if a patient is diagnosed with osteonecrosis in the shaft of a long bone.


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 91-B, Issue 1 | Pages 37 - 43
1 Jan 2009
Hassaballa M Mehendale S Poniatowski S Kalantzis G Smith E Learmonth ID

Loss of bone stock is a major problem in revision surgery of the hip. Impaction bone grafting of the femur is frequently used when dealing with deficient bone stock. In this retrospective study a consecutive series of 68 patients (69 hips) who had revision of a hip replacement with femoral impaction grafting were reviewed. Irradiated bone allograft was used in all hips. Radiological measurement of subsidence of the stem, incorporation of the graft and remodelling was carried out and showed incorporation of the graft in 26 of 69 hips (38%). However, there was no evidence of trabecular remodelling. Moderate subsidence of 5 mm to 10 mm occurred in ten hips (14.5%), and massive subsidence of > 10 mm in five (7.2%).

The results of this study are less favourable than those of others describing studies of revision of the femoral stem using impaction bone grafting. The absence of the characteristic changes of graft remodelling noted in other series raises the question as to whether irradiated bone graft may be a significant factor influencing the post-operative outcome.


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 91-B, Issue 1 | Pages 69 - 74
1 Jan 2009
Wood PLR Sutton C Mishra V Suneja R

We describe the results of a randomised, prospective study of 200 ankle replacements carried out between March 2000 and July 2003 at a single centre to compare the Buechel-Pappas (BP) and the Scandinavian Total Ankle Replacement (STAR) implant with a minimum follow-up of 36 months. The two prostheses were similar in design consisting of three components with a meniscal polyethylene bearing which was highly congruent on its planar tibial surface and on its curved talar surface. However, the designs were markedly different with respect to the geometry of the articular surface of the talus and its overall shape.

A total of 16 ankles (18%) was revised, of which 12 were from the BP group and four of the STAR group. The six-year survivorship of the BP design was 79% (95% confidence interval (CI) 63.4 to 88.5 and of the STAR 95% (95% CI 87.2 to 98.1). The difference did not reach statistical significance (p = 0.09). However, varus or valgus deformity before surgery did have a significant effect) (p = 0.02) on survivorship in both groups, with the likelihood of revision being directly proportional to the size of the angular deformity. Our findings support previous studies which suggested that total ankle replacement should be undertaken with extreme caution in the presence of marked varus or valgus deformity.


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 89-B, Issue 2 | Pages 180 - 185
1 Feb 2007
Koëter S Diks MJF Anderson PG Wymenga AB

An abnormal lateral position of the tibial tuberosity causes distal malalignment of the extensor mechanism of the knee and can lead to lateral tracking of the patella causing anterior knee pain or objective patellar instability, characterised by recurrent dislocation. Computer tomography is used for a precise pre-operative assessment of the tibial tubercle-trochlear groove distance. A distance of more than 15 mm is considered to be pathological and an indication for surgery in symptomatic patients.

In a prospective study we performed a subtle transfer of the tibial tuberosity according to the information gained from the pre-operative CT scan. This method was applied to two groups of patients, those with painful lateral tracking of the patella, and those with objective patellar instability. We evaluated the clinical results in 30 patients in each group. The outcome was documented at 3, 12 and 24 months using the Lysholm scale, the Kujala score, and a visual analogue pain score.

Post-operatively, all but one patient in the instability group who had a patellar dislocation requiring further surgery reported good improvement with no further subluxation or dislocation. All patients in both groups had a marked improvement in pain and functional score. Two patients sustained a tibial fracture six and seven weeks after surgery. One patient suffered a per-operative fracture of the tibial tubercle which later required further fixation.

If carefully performed, this type of transfer of the tibial tubercle appears to be a satisfactory technique for the treatment of patients with an increased tibial tubercle-trochlear groove distance and who present with symptoms related to lateral maltracking of the patella.


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 87-B, Issue 4 | Pages 530 - 533
1 Apr 2005
O’Sullivan REM White TO Keating JF

The identification of high-risk factors in patients with fractures of the pelvis at the time of presentation would facilitate investigation and management. In a series of 174 consecutive patients with unstable fractures of the pelvic ring, clinical data were used to calculate the injury severity score (ISS), the triage-revised trauma score (T-RTS), and the Glasgow coma scale (GCS). The morphology of the fracture was classified according to the AO system and that of Burgess et al. The data were analysed using univariate and multivariate methods in order to determine which presenting features were identified with high risk.

Univariate analysis showed an association between mortality and an ISS over 25, a T-RTS below eight, age over 65 years, systolic blood pressure under 100 mmHg, a GCS of less than 8, blood transfusion of more than ten units in the first 24 hours and colloid infusion of more than six litres in the first 24 hours. Multivariate analysis showed that age, T-RTS and ISS were independent determinants of mortality. A T-RTS of eight or less identified the cohort of patients at greatest risk (65%). The morphology of the fracture was not predictive of mortality. We recommend the use of the T-RTS in the acute situation in order to identify patients at high risk.


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 88-B, Issue 10 | Pages 1316 - 1320
1 Oct 2006
Azodi OS Bellocco R Eriksson K Adami J

We carried out a retrospective cohort study of 3309 patients undergoing primary total hip replacement to examine the impact of tobacco use and body mass index on the length of stay in hospital and the risk of short term post-operative complications.

Heavy tobacco use was associated with an increased risk of systemic post-operative complications (p = 0.004). Previous and current smokers had a 43% and 56% increased risk of systemic complications, respectively, when compared with non-smokers. In heavy smokers, the risk increased by 121%. A high body mass index was significantly associated with an increased mean length of stay in hospital of between 4.7% and 7%. The risk of systemic complications was increased by 58% in the obese. Smoking and body mass index were not significantly related to the development of local complications.

Greater efforts should be taken to reduce the impact of preventable life style factors, such as smoking and high body mass index, on the post-operative course of total hip replacement.


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 87-B, Issue 1 | Pages 25 - 31
1 Jan 2005
Haverkamp D Marti RK

Intertrochanteric osteotomy may postpone the need for total hip replacement (THR). In young patients with an acquired deformity of the femoral head and secondary osteoarthritis, a valgus intertrochanteric osteotomy may allow better congruency but the acetabular cover may become insufficient because of subluxation of the femoral head. In patients with a spherical femoral head and acetabular dysplasia, cover can still remain insufficient after varus displacement osteotomy. We present the long-term results of intertrochanteric osteotomy combined with an acetabular shelfplasty in both these circumstances.

Sixteen hips (15 patients) with a deformed femoral head, and ten (seven patients) with a spherical femoral head, underwent an intertrochanteric osteotomy and acetabular shelfplasty. The mean age at the time of surgery was 30 and 37 years and the mean final follow-up was 15 and 19 years, respectively. Six patients in the deformed group, but only one in the spherical group, had required a THR by the time of their final follow-up. In both groups, those who had not undergone a THR had a good result.

Acetabular shelfplasty is an excellent addition to an intertrochanteric osteotomy and gives full cover of the femoral head in patients with a deformity of the head and secondary osteoarthritis.


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 90-B, Issue 5 | Pages 629 - 637
1 May 2008
Forward DP Davis TRC Sithole JS

Fractures of the distal radius occurring in young adults are treated increasingly by open surgical techniques, partly because of concern that failure to restore the alignment of the fracture accurately may cause symptomatic post-traumatic osteoarthritis in future years. We reviewed 106 adults who had sustained a fracture of the distal radius between 1960 and 1968 and who were below the age of 40 years at the time of injury. We carried out a clinical and radiological assessment at a mean follow-up of 38 years (33 to 42).

No patient had required a salvage procedure. While there was radiological evidence of post-traumatic osteoarthritis after an intra-articular fracture in 68% of patients (27 of 40), the disabilities of the arm, shoulder and hand (DASH) scores were not different from population norms, and function, as assessed by the Patient Evaluation Measure, was impaired by less than 10%. Ordinal logistic regression analysis showed a significant relationship between narrowing of the joint space and extra-articular malunion (dorsal angulation and radial shortening) as well as intra-articular injury. Multivariate analysis revealed that grip strength had fallen to 89% of that of the uninjured side in the presence of dorsal malunion, but no measure of extra-articular malunion was significantly related to either the Patient Evaluation Measure or DASH scores.

While anatomical reduction is the principal aim of treatment, imperfect reduction of these fractures may not result in symptomatic arthritis in the long term, and this should be considered when counselling patients on the risks and benefits of the many treatment options available.


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 90-B, Issue 1 | Pages 43 - 49
1 Jan 2008
Smith AJ Wood DJ Li M

We have examined the differences in clinical outcome of total knee replacement (TKR) with and without patellar resurfacing in a prospective, randomised study of 181 osteoarthritic knees in 142 patients using the Profix total knee system which has a femoral component with features considered to be anatomical and a domed patellar implant.

The procedures were carried out between February 1998 and November 2002. A total of 159 TKRs in 142 patients were available for review at a mean of four years (3 to 7). The patients and the clinical evaluator were blinded in this prospective study. Evaluation was undertaken annually by an independent observer using the knee pain scale and the Knee Society clinical rating system. Specific evaluation of anterior knee pain, stair-climbing and rising from a seated to a standing position was also undertaken.

No benefit was shown of TKR with patellar resurfacing over that without resurfacing with respect to any of the measured outcomes. In 22 of 73 knees (30.1%) with and 18 of 86 knees (20.9%) without patellar resurfacing there was some degree of anterior knee pain (p = 0.183). No revisions related to the patellofemoral joint were performed in either group. Only one TKR in each group underwent a re-operation related to the patellofemoral joint. A significant association between knee flexion contracture and anterior knee pain was observed in those knees with patellar resurfacing (p = 0.006).


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 89-B, Issue 7 | Pages 893 - 900
1 Jul 2007
Baker PN van der Meulen JH Lewsey J Gregg PJ

A postal questionnaire was sent to 10 000 patients more than one year after their total knee replacement (TKR). They were assessed using the Oxford knee score and were asked whether they were satisfied, unsure or unsatisfied with their TKR. The response rate was 87.4% (8231 of 9417 eligible questionnaires) and a total of 81.8% (6625 of 8095) of patients were satisfied. Multivariable regression modelling showed that patients with higher scores relating to the pain and function elements of the Oxford knee score had a lower level of satisfaction (p < 0.001), and that ongoing pain was a stronger predictor of this. Female gender and a primary diagnosis of osteoarthritis were found to be predictors of lower levels of patient satisfaction. Differences in the rate of satisfaction were also observed in relation to age, the American Society of Anesthesiologists grade and the type of prosthesis.

This study has provided data on the Oxford knee score and the expected levels of satisfaction at one year after TKR. The results should act as a benchmark of practice in the United Kingdom and provide a baseline for peer comparison between institutions.


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 87-B, Issue 6 | Pages 844 - 850
1 Jun 2005
Ridgeway S Wilson J Charlet A Kafatos G Pearson A Coello R

We wished to estimate the incidence of surgical-site infection (SSI) after total hip replacement (THR) and hemiarthroplasty and its strength of association with major risk factors. The SSI surveillance service prospectively gathered clinical, operative and infection data on inpatients from 102 hospitals in England during a four-year period.

The overall incidence of SSI was 2.23% for 16 291 THRs, 4.97% for 5769 hemiarthroplasty procedures, 3.68% for 2550 revision THRs and 7.6% for 198 revision hemiarthroplasties. Staphylococcus aureus was identified in 50% of SSIs; 59% of these isolates were methicillin-resistant (MRSA). In the single variable analysis of THRs, age, female gender, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score, body mass index, trauma, duration of operation and pre-operative stay were significantly associated with the risk of SSI (p < 0.05). For hemiarthroplasty, the ASA score and age were significant factors. In revision THRs male gender, ASA score, trauma, wound class, duration of operation and pre-operative stay were significant risk factors. The median time to detection of SSI was eight days for superficial incisional, 11 days for deep incisional and 11 days for joint/bone infections. For each procedure the mean length of stay doubled for patients with SSI. The multivariate analysis identified age group, trauma, duration of operation and ASA score as significant, independent risk factors for SSI. There was significant interhospital variation in the rates of SSI. MRSA was the most common pathogen to cause SSI in hip arthroplasty, especially in patients undergoing hemiarthroplasty, but coagulase-negative Staph. aureus may be more important in deep infections involving the joint.


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 93-B, Issue 11 | Pages 1556 - 1561
1 Nov 2011
Singhal R Perry DC Khan FN Cohen D Stevenson HL James LA Sampath JS Bruce CE

Clinical prediction algorithms are used to differentiate transient synovitis from septic arthritis. These algorithms typically include the erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), although in clinical practice measurement of the C-reactive protein (CRP) has largely replaced the ESR. We evaluated the use of CRP in a predictive algorithm.

The records of 311 children with an effusion of the hip, which was confirmed on ultrasound, were reviewed (mean age 5.3 years (0.2 to 15.1)). Of these, 269 resolved without intervention and without long-term sequelae and were considered to have had transient synovitis. The remaining 42 underwent arthrotomy because of suspicion of septic arthritis. Infection was confirmed in 29 (18 had micro-organisms isolated and 11 had a high synovial fluid white cell count). In the remaining 13 no evidence of infection was found and they were also considered to have had transient synovitis. In total 29 hips were categorised as septic arthritis and 282 as transient synovitis. The temperature, weight-bearing status, peripheral white blood cell count and CRP was reviewed in each patient.

A CRP > 20 mg/l was the strongest independent risk factor for septic arthritis (odds ratio 81.9, p < 0.001). A multivariable prediction model revealed that only two determinants (weight-bearing status and CRP > 20 mg/l) were independent in differentiating septic arthritis from transient synovitis. Individuals with neither predictor had a < 1% probability of septic arthritis, but those with both had a 74% probability of septic arthritis. A two-variable algorithm can therefore quantify the risk of septic arthritis, and is an excellent negative predictor.