A suspected fracture of the scaphoid remains difficult to manage despite advances in knowledge and imaging methods. Immobilisation and restriction of activities in a young and active patient must be balanced against the risks of nonunion associated with an undiagnosed and undertreated fracture of the scaphoid. The assessment of diagnostic tests for a suspected fracture of the scaphoid must take into account two important factors. First, the prevalence of true fractures among suspected fractures is low, which greatly reduces the probability that a positive test will correspond with a true fracture, as false positives are nearly as common as true positives. This situation is accounted for by Bayesian statistics. Secondly, there is no agreed reference standard for a true fracture, which necessitates the need for an alternative method of calculating diagnostic performance characteristics, based upon a statistical method which identifies clinical factors tending to associate (latent classes) in patients with a high probability of fracture. The most successful diagnostic test to date is MRI, but in low-prevalence situations the positive predictive value of MRI is only 88%, and new data have documented the potential for false positive scans. The best strategy for improving the diagnosis of true fractures among suspected fractures of the scaphoid may well be to develop a clinical prediction rule incorporating a set of demographic and clinical factors which together increase the pre-test probability of a fracture of the scaphoid, in addition to developing increasingly sophisticated radiological tests

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The aim of this study was to evaluate the epidemiology and treatment of Perthes’ disease of the hip.

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The aim of this study was to inform the epidemiology and treatment of slipped capital femoral epiphysis (SCFE).

Aims. This paper describes the methodology, validation and reliability of a new computer-assisted method which uses models of the patient’s bones and the components to measure their migration and polyethylene wear from radiographs after total hip arthroplasty (THA). Materials and Methods. Models of the patient’s acetabular and femoral component obtained from the manufacturer and models of the patient’s pelvis and femur built from a single computed tomography (CT) scan, are used by a computer program to measure the migration of the components and the penetration of the femoral head from anteroposterior and lateral radiographs taken at follow-up visits. The program simulates the radiographic setup and matches the position and orientation of the models to outlines of the pelvis, the acetabular and femoral component, and femur on radiographs. Changes in position and orientation reflect the migration of the components and the penetration of the femoral head. Validation was performed using radiographs of phantoms simulating known migration and penetration, and the clinical feasibility of measuring migration was assessed in two patients. Results. Migration of the acetabular and femoral components can be measured with limits of agreement (LOA) of 0.37 mm and 0.33 mm, respectively. Penetration of the femoral head can be measured with LOA of 0.161 mm. Conclusion. The migration of components and polyethylene wear can be measured without needing specialised radiographs. Accurate measurement may allow earlier prediction of failure after THA. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2017;99-B:1290–7

Pre-operative variables are increasingly being used to determine eligibility for total knee replacement (TKR). This study was undertaken to evaluate the relationships, interactions and predictive capacity of variables available pre- and post-operatively on patient satisfaction following TKR. Using nationally collected patient reported outcome measures and data from the National Joint Registry for England and Wales, we identified 22 798 patients who underwent TKR for osteoarthritis between August 2008 and September 2010. The ability of specific covariates to predict satisfaction was assessed using ordinal logistic regression and structural equational modelling. Only 4959 (22%) of 22 278 patients rated the results of their TKR as ‘excellent’, despite the majority (71%, n = 15 882) perceiving their knee symptoms to be much improved. The strongest predictors of satisfaction were post-operative variables. Satisfaction was significantly and positively related to the perception of symptom improvement (operative success) and the post-operative EuroQol-5D score. While also significant within the models pre-operative variables were less important and had a minimal influence upon post-operative satisfaction. The most robust predictions of satisfaction occurred only when both pre- and post-operative variables were considered together. These findings question the appropriateness of restricting access to care based on arbitrary pre-operative thresholds as these factors have little bearing on post-operative satisfaction. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2013;95-B:1359–65

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The aim of this study was to establish a reliable method for producing 3D reconstruction of sonographic callus.

Wear of polyethylene is associated with aseptic loosening of orthopaedic implants and has been observed in hip and knee prostheses and anatomical implants for the shoulder. The reversed shoulder prostheses have not been assessed as yet. We investigated the volumetric polyethylene wear of the reversed and anatomical Aequalis shoulder prostheses using a mathematical musculoskeletal model. Movement and joint stability were achieved by EMG-controlled activation of the muscles. A non-constant wear factor was considered. Simulated activities of daily living were estimated from in vivo recorded data. After one year of use, the volumetric wear was 8.4 mm. 3. for the anatomical prosthesis, but 44.6 mm. 3. for the reversed version. For the anatomical prosthesis the predictions for contact pressure and wear were consistent with biomechanical and clinical data. The abrasive wear of the polyethylene in reversed prostheses should not be underestimated, and further analysis, both experimental and clinical, is required

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The distal radius is a major site of osteoporotic bone loss resulting in a high risk of fragility fracture. This study evaluated the capability of a cortical index (CI) at the distal radius to predict the local bone mineral density (BMD).

The revised Tokuhashi, Tomita and modified Bauer scores are commonly used to make difficult decisions in the management of patients presenting with spinal metastases. A prospective cohort study of 199 consecutive patients presenting with spinal metastases, treated with either surgery and/or radiotherapy, was used to compare the three systems. Cox regression, Nagelkerke’s R. 2. and Harrell’s concordance were used to compare the systems and find their best predictive items. The three systems were equally good in terms of overall prognostic performance. Their most predictive items were used to develop the Oswestry Spinal Risk Index (OSRI), which has a similar concordance, but a larger coefficient of determination than any of these three scores. A bootstrap procedure was used to internally validate this score and determine its prediction optimism. The OSRI is a simple summation of two elements: primary tumour pathology (PTP) and general condition (GC): OSRI = PTP + (2 – GC). This simple score can predict life expectancy accurately in patients presenting with spinal metastases. It will be helpful in making difficult clinical decisions without the delay of extensive investigations. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2013;95-B:210–16

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The incidence of bone metastases is between 20% to 75% depending on the type of cancer. As treatment improves, the number of patients who need surgical intervention is increasing. Identifying patients with a shorter life expectancy would allow surgical intervention with more durable reconstructions to be targeted to those most likely to benefit. While previous scoring systems have focused on surgical and oncological factors, there is a need to consider comorbidities and the physiological state of the patient, as these will also affect outcome. The primary aim of this study was to create a scoring system to estimate survival time in patients with bony metastases and to determine which factors may adversely affect this.

We have devised a combined pillar score (CPS) system, based on the lateral pillar (LP) and the posterior pillar (PP) classifications, together with the age at onset of Perthes’ disease, and examined its correlation with prognosis. The correlation coefficient of the Catterall classification, LP, PP, and CPS systems with the Stulberg system was 0.39, 0.52, 0.50, and 0.70, respectively. Overall 21 of the 22 hips (95.4%) with a CPS of 0 to 1 point had a good outcome and 12 of the 13 hips (92.3%) with a CPS of 3 points or more had a fair or poor outcome. None with a CPS of 2 points, had a poor outcome. The study shows that an accurate prediction of the prognosis is not possible with the LP classification alone for patients classified as belonging to group B (LP height 50% to 100% of contralateral height). The CPS system does allow accurate prediction of outcome

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Circular RNA (circRNA) S-phase cyclin A-associated protein in the endoplasmic reticulum (ER) (circSCAPER, ID: hsa_circ_0104595) has been found to be highly expressed in osteoarthritis (OA) patients and has been associated with the severity of OA. Hence, the role and mechanisms underlying circSCAPER in OA were investigated in this study.

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Debate remains whether the patella should be resurfaced during total knee replacement (TKR). For non-resurfaced TKRs, we estimated what the revision rate would have been if the patella had been resurfaced, and examined the risk of re-revision following secondary patellar resurfacing.

Clinical prediction algorithms are used to differentiate transient synovitis from septic arthritis. These algorithms typically include the erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), although in clinical practice measurement of the C-reactive protein (CRP) has largely replaced the ESR. We evaluated the use of CRP in a predictive algorithm. The records of 311 children with an effusion of the hip, which was confirmed on ultrasound, were reviewed (mean age 5.3 years (0.2 to 15.1)). Of these, 269 resolved without intervention and without long-term sequelae and were considered to have had transient synovitis. The remaining 42 underwent arthrotomy because of suspicion of septic arthritis. Infection was confirmed in 29 (18 had micro-organisms isolated and 11 had a high synovial fluid white cell count). In the remaining 13 no evidence of infection was found and they were also considered to have had transient synovitis. In total 29 hips were categorised as septic arthritis and 282 as transient synovitis. The temperature, weight-bearing status, peripheral white blood cell count and CRP was reviewed in each patient. A CRP > 20 mg/l was the strongest independent risk factor for septic arthritis (odds ratio 81.9, p < 0.001). A multivariable prediction model revealed that only two determinants (weight-bearing status and CRP > 20 mg/l) were independent in differentiating septic arthritis from transient synovitis. Individuals with neither predictor had a < 1% probability of septic arthritis, but those with both had a 74% probability of septic arthritis. A two-variable algorithm can therefore quantify the risk of septic arthritis, and is an excellent negative predictor.

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Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) impairs bone strength and is a significant risk factor for hip fracture, yet currently there is no reliable tool to assess this risk. Most risk stratification methods rely on bone mineral density, which is not impaired by diabetes, rendering current tests ineffective. CT-based finite element analysis (CTFEA) calculates the mechanical response of bone to load and uses the yield strain, which is reduced in T2DM patients, to measure bone strength. The purpose of this feasibility study was to examine whether CTFEA could be used to assess the hip fracture risk for T2DM patients.

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This study aimed to evaluate sagittal spinopelvic alignment (SSPA) in the early stage of rapidly destructive coxopathy (RDC) compared with hip osteoarthritis (HOA), and to identify risk factors of SSPA for destruction of the femoral head within 12 months after the disease onset.

The identification of the extent of neural damage in patients with acute or chronic spinal cord injury is imperative for the accurate prediction of neurological recovery. The changes in signal intensity shown on routine MRI sequences are of limited value for predicting functional outcome. Diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) is a novel radiological imaging technique which has the potential to identify intact nerve fibre tracts, and has been used to image the brain for a variety of conditions. DTI imaging of the spinal cord is currently only a research tool, but preliminary studies have shown that it holds considerable promise in predicting the severity of spinal cord injury. . This paper briefly reviews our current knowledge of this technique

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Deciphering the genetic relationships between major depressive disorder (MDD) and osteoarthritis (OA) may facilitate an understanding of their biological mechanisms, as well as inform more effective treatment regimens. We aim to investigate the mechanisms underlying relationships between MDD and OA in the context of common genetic variations.

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Highly polished stems with force-closed design have shown satisfactory clinical results despite being related to relatively high early migration. It has been suggested that the minimal thickness of cement mantles surrounding the femoral stem should be 2 mm to 4 mm to avoid aseptic loosening. The line-to-line cementing technique of the femoral stem, designed to achieve stem press-fit, challenges this opinion. We compared the migration of a highly polished stem with force-closed design by standard and line-to-line cementing to investigate whether differences in early migration of the stems occur in a clinical study.