Heterotopic ossification (HO) is a common complication after elbow trauma and can cause severe upper limb disability. Although multiple prognostic factors have been reported to be associated with the development of post-traumatic HO, no model has yet been able to combine these predictors more succinctly to convey prognostic information and medical measures to patients. Therefore, this study aimed to identify prognostic factors leading to the formation of HO after surgery for elbow trauma, and to establish and validate a nomogram to predict the probability of HO formation in such particular injuries. This multicentre case-control study comprised 200 patients with post-traumatic elbow HO and 229 patients who had elbow trauma but without HO formation between July 2019 and December 2020. Features possibly associated with HO formation were obtained. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was used to optimize feature selection. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was applied to build the new nomogram: the Shanghai post-Traumatic Elbow Heterotopic Ossification Prediction model (STEHOP). STEHOP was validated by concordance index (C-index) and calibration plot. Internal validation was conducted using bootstrapping validation.Aims
Methods
A total of 14 women and seven men with a mean age of 43 years (18 to 68) who sustained a Mason type IV fracture of the elbow, without an additional type II or III coronoid fracture, were evaluated after a mean of 21 years (14 to 46). Primary treatment included closed elbow reduction followed by immobilisation in a plaster in all cases, with an additional excision of the radial head in 11, partial resection in two and suturing of the annular ligament in two. Delayed radial head excision was performed in two patients and an ulnar nerve transposition in one. The uninjured elbows served as controls. Nine patients had no symptoms, 11 reported slight impairment, and one severe impairment of the elbow. Elbow flexion was impaired by a mean of 3° ( We conclude that most patients with a Mason type IV fracture of the elbow report a good long-term outcome.
