Aims. Conservative treatment of moderately displaced proximal humeral head fractures yields good clinical results, but secondary fragment displacement may occur. Identification of those fractures at risk of displacement may influence initial decision-making. Methods. A total of 163 shoulders in 162 patients with conservatively treated isolated proximal humeral fractures were included. The fractures occurred between January 2015 and May 2018. The mean age of the patients was 69 years (26 to 100) and the mean follow-up was 144 days (42 to 779). The fractures were classified according to Neer. Scores for osteoporosis (Tingart, Deltoid Tuberosity Index (DTI)) and osteoarthritis (OA) of the glenohumeral joint were assessed. Translation of the head on follow-up radiographs of more than 10 mm was defined as displacement. Eccentric head index (EHI) describes the offset of the humeral head centre in relation to the diaphyseal axis. The ratio was estimated on anteroposterior (AP) and Neer views. Medial hinge was considered intact if the medial cortex proximal and distal to the fracture was in line on AP view. Results. Secondary fracture displacement occurred in 41 patients (25.2%). Clinical risk factors were alcohol abuse (odds ratio (OR) 6.8; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.3 to 36; p = 0.025) and previously diagnosed osteoporosis (OR 4.6; 95% CI 0.6 to 34; p = 0.136). Age (OR 1.1; 95% CI 1.0 to 1.1; p = 0.003) and sex (OR 0.9; 95% CI 0.3 to 2.8; p = 0.867) were not independent factors. Radiological risk factors were OA grade 3 (OR 16.4; 95% CI 0.25 to 37.6; p = 0.107) and osteoporosis with the DTI (OR 10; 95% CI 0.8 to 250; p = 0.031) being more predictive than the Tingart score (OR 2.3; 95% CI 0.8 to 4.7; p = 0.041). A high EHI (AP/Neer > 0.4, OR 18.9; 95% CI 2.1 to 30.9/3.0; 95% CI 1.1 to 8.0; p = 0.002/p = 0.033) and a disrupted medial hinge (OR 3.7; 95% CI 1.1 to 12.6; p = 0.039) increased the risk of secondary displacement significantly. Neer classification had no influence. Conclusion. During conservative treatment, a quarter of patients showed secondary fracture displacement of at least 10 mm. Patients with alcohol abuse, severe OA, and osteoporosis are at risk. Newly defined EHI and disrupted medial hinge are relevant predictors for secondary displacement. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(7):881–889