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Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 1, Issue 9 | Pages 549 - 555
11 Sep 2020
Sonntag J Landale K Brorson S Harris IA

Aims. The aim of this study was to investigate surgeons’ reported change of treatment preference in response to the results and conclusion from a randomized contolled trial (RCT) and to study patterns of change between subspecialties and nationalities. Methods. Two questionnaires were developed through the Delphi process for this cross-sectional survey of surgical preference. The first questionnaire was sent out before the publication of a RCT and the second questionnaire was sent out after publication. The RCT investigated repair or non-repair of the pronator quadratus (PQ) muscle during volar locked plating of distal radial fractures (DRFs). Overall, 380 orthopaedic surgeons were invited to participate in the first questionnaire, of whom 115 replied. One hundred surgeons were invited to participate in the second questionnaire. The primary outcome was the proportion of surgeons for whom a treatment change was warranted, who then reported a change of treatment preference following the RCT. Secondary outcomes included the reasons for repair or non-repair, reasons for and against following the RCT results, and difference of preferred treatment of the PQ muscle between surgeons of different nationalities, qualifications, years of training, and number of procedures performed per year. Results. Of the 100 surgeons invited for the second questionnaire, 74 replied. For the primary outcome, six of 32 surgeons (19%), who usually repaired the PQ muscle and therefore a change of treatment preference was warranted, reported a change of treatment preference based on the RCT publication. Of the secondary outcomes, restoring anatomy was the most common response for repairing the PQ muscle. Conclusion. The majority of the orthopaedic surgeons, where a change of treatment preference was warranted based on the results and conclusion of a RCT, did not report willingness to change their treatment preference. Cite this article: Bone Joint Open 2020;1-9:549–555


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 4, Issue 2 | Pages 96 - 103
14 Feb 2023
Knowlson CN Brealey S Keding A Torgerson D Rangan A

Aims. Early large treatment effects can arise in small studies, which lessen as more data accumulate. This study aimed to retrospectively examine whether early treatment effects occurred for two multicentre orthopaedic randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and explore biases related to this. Methods. Included RCTs were ProFHER (PROximal Fracture of the Humerus: Evaluation by Randomisation), a two-arm study of surgery versus non-surgical treatment for proximal humerus fractures, and UK FROST (United Kingdom Frozen Shoulder Trial), a three-arm study of two surgical and one non-surgical treatment for frozen shoulder. To determine whether early treatment effects were present, the primary outcome of Oxford Shoulder Score (OSS) was compared on forest plots for: the chief investigator’s (CI) site to the remaining sites, the first five sites opened to the other sites, and patients grouped in quintiles by randomization date. Potential for bias was assessed by comparing mean age and proportion of patients with indicators of poor outcome between included and excluded/non-consenting participants. Results. No bias in treatment effect was observed overall for the CI site, or the first five sites, compared with the remaining sites in either trial. An early treatment effect on the OSS was observed for the first quintile of participants recruited to ProFHER only (clinically relevant difference of seven points). Selection bias for age was observed in the ProFHER trial only, with slightly younger patients being recruited into the study. Both trials showed some selection bias for markers of poor prognosis, although these did not appear to change over time. Conclusion. No bias in treatment effects overall were found at the CI or early sites set-up. An early treatment effect was found in one of the two trials, which was likely a chance effect as this did not continue during the study. Selection bias was observed in both RCTs, however this was minimal and did not impact on outcome. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(2):96–103


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 106-B, Issue 6 | Pages 632 - 638
1 Jun 2024
Hart CM Kelley BV Mamouei Z Turkmani A Ralston M Arnold M Bernthal NM Sassoon AA

Aims. Delayed postoperative inoculation of orthopaedic implants with persistent wound drainage or bacterial seeding of a haematoma can result in periprosthetic joint infection (PJI). The aim of this in vivo study was to compare the efficacy of vancomycin powder with vancomycin-eluting calcium sulphate beads in preventing PJI due to delayed inoculation. Methods. A mouse model of PJI of the knee was used. Mice were randomized into groups with intervention at the time of surgery (postoperative day (POD) 0): a sterile control (SC; n = 6); infected control (IC; n = 15); systemic vancomycin (SV; n = 9); vancomycin powder (VP; n = 21); and vancomycin bead (VB; n = 19) groups. Delayed inoculation was introduced during an arthrotomy on POD 7 with 1 × 10. 5. colony-forming units (CFUs) of a bioluminescent strain of Staphylococcus aureus. The bacterial burden was monitored using bioluminescence in vivo. All mice were killed on POD 21. Implants and soft-tissue were harvested and sonicated for analysis of the CFUs. Results. The mean in vivo bioluminescence in the VB group was significantly lower on POD 8 and POD 10 compared with the other groups. There was a significant 1.3-log. 10. (95%) and 1.5-log. 10. (97%) reduction in mean soft-tissue CFUs in the VB group compared with the VP and IC groups (3.6 × 10. 3. vs 7.0 × 10. 4. ; p = 0.022; 3.6 × 10. 3. vs 1.0 × 10. 5. ; p = 0.007, respectively) at POD 21. There was a significant 1.6-log. 10. (98%) reduction in mean implant CFUs in the VB group compared with the IC group (1.3 × 10. 0. vs 4.7 × 10. 1. , respectively; p = 0.038). Combined soft-tissue and implant infection was prevented in 10 of 19 mice (53%) in the VB group as opposed to 5 of 21 (24%) in the VP group, 3 of 15 (20%) in the IC group, and 0% in the SV group. Conclusion. In our in vivo mouse model, antibiotic-releasing calcium sulphate beads appeared to outperform vancomycin powder alone in lowering the bacterial burden and preventing soft-tissue and implant infections. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(6):632–638


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 2, Issue 9 | Pages 721 - 727
1 Sep 2021
Zargaran A Zargaran D Trompeter AJ

Aims. Orthopaedic infection is a potentially serious complication of elective and emergency trauma and orthopaedic procedures, with a high associated burden of morbidity and cost. Optimization of vitamin D levels has been postulated to be beneficial in the prevention of orthopaedic infection. This study explores the role of vitamin D in orthopaedic infection through a systematic review of available evidence. Methods. A comprehensive search was conducted on databases including Medline and Embase, as well as grey literature such as Google Scholar and The World Health Organization Database. Pooled analysis with weighted means was undertaken. Results. Pooled analysis of four studies including 651 patients found the mean 25(OH)D level to be 50.7 nmol/l with a mean incidence of infection of 70%. There was a paucity of literature exploring prophylactic 25(OH)D supplementation on reducing orthopaedic infection, however, there was evidence of association between low 25(OH)D levels and increased incidence of orthopaedic infection. Conclusion. The results indicate a significant proportion of orthopaedic patients have low 25(OH]D levels, as well as an association between low 25(OH)D levels and orthopaedic infection, but more randomized controlled trials need to be conducted to establish the benefit of prophylactic supplementation and the optimum regimen by dose and time. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(9):721–727


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 2, Issue 8 | Pages 583 - 593
2 Aug 2021
Kulkarni K Shah R Armaou M Leighton P Mangwani J Dias J

Aims. COVID-19 has compounded a growing waiting list problem, with over 4.5 million patients now waiting for planned elective care in the UK. Views of patients on waiting lists are rarely considered in prioritization. Our primary aim was to understand how to support patients on waiting lists by hearing their experiences, concerns, and expectations. The secondary aim was to capture objective change in disability and coping mechanisms. Methods. A minimum representative sample of 824 patients was required for quantitative analysis to provide a 3% margin of error. Sampling was stratified by body region (upper/lower limb, spine) and duration on the waiting list. Questionnaires were sent to a random sample of elective orthopaedic waiting list patients with their planned intervention paused due to COVID-19. Analyzed parameters included baseline health, change in physical/mental health status, challenges and coping strategies, preferences/concerns regarding treatment, and objective quality of life (EuroQol five-dimension questionnaire (EQ-5D), Generalized Anxiety Disorder 2-item scale (GAD-2)). Qualitative analysis was performed via the Normalization Process Theory. Results. A total of 888 patients responded. Better health, pain, and mood scores were reported by upper limb patients. The longest waiters reported better health but poorer mood and anxiety scores. Overall, 82% had tried self-help measures to ease symptoms; 94% wished to proceed with their intervention; and 21% were prepared to tolerate deferral. Qualitative analysis highlighted the overall patient mood to be represented by the terms ‘understandable’, ‘frustrated’, ‘pain’, ‘disappointed’, and ‘not happy/depressed’. COVID-19-mandated health and safety measures and technology solutions were felt to be implemented well. However, patients struggled with access to doctors and pain management, quality of life (physical and psychosocial) deterioration, and delay updates. Conclusion. This is the largest study to hear the views of this ‘hidden’ cohort. Our findings are widely relevant to ensure provision of better ongoing support and communication, mostly within the constraints of current resources. In response, we developed a reproducible local action plan to address highlighted issues. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(8):583–593


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 1, Issue 6 | Pages 198 - 202
6 Jun 2020
Lewis PM Waddell JP

It is unusual, if not unique, for three major research papers concerned with the management of the fractured neck of femur (FNOF) to be published in a short period of time, each describing large prospective randomized clinical trials. These studies were conducted in up to 17 countries worldwide, involving up to 80 surgical centers and include large numbers of patients (up to 2,900) with FNOF. Each article investigated common clinical dilemmas; the first paper comparing total hip arthroplasty versus hemiarthroplasty for FNOF, the second as to whether ‘fast track’ care offers improved clinical outcomes and the third, compares sliding hip with multiple cancellous hip screws. Each paper has been deemed of sufficient quality and importance to warrant publication in The Lancet or the New England Journal of Medicine. Although ‘premier’ journals, they only occationally contain orthopaedic studies and thus may not be routinely read by the busy orthopaedic/surgical clinician of any grade. It is therefore our intention with this present article to accurately summarize and combine the results of all three papers, presenting, in our opinion, the most important clinically relevant facts. Cite this article: Bone Joint Open 2020;1-6:198–202


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 1, Issue 6 | Pages 236 - 244
11 Jun 2020
Verstraete MA Moore RE Roche M Conditt MA

Aims. The use of technology to assess balance and alignment during total knee surgery can provide an overload of numerical data to the surgeon. Meanwhile, this quantification holds the potential to clarify and guide the surgeon through the surgical decision process when selecting the appropriate bone recut or soft tissue adjustment when balancing a total knee. Therefore, this paper evaluates the potential of deploying supervised machine learning (ML) models to select a surgical correction based on patient-specific intra-operative assessments. Methods. Based on a clinical series of 479 primary total knees and 1,305 associated surgical decisions, various ML models were developed. These models identified the indicated surgical decision based on available, intra-operative alignment, and tibiofemoral load data. Results. With an associated area under the receiver-operator curve ranging between 0.75 and 0.98, the optimized ML models resulted in good to excellent predictions. The best performing model used a random forest approach while considering both alignment and intra-articular load readings. Conclusion. The presented model has the potential to make experience available to surgeons adopting new technology, bringing expert opinion in their operating theatre, but also provides insight in the surgical decision process. More specifically, these promising outcomes indicated the relevance of considering the overall limb alignment in the coronal and sagittal plane to identify the appropriate surgical decision


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 1, Issue 10 | Pages 628 - 638
6 Oct 2020
Mott A Mitchell A McDaid C Harden M Grupping R Dean A Byrne A Doherty L Sharma H

Aims. Bone demonstrates good healing capacity, with a variety of strategies being utilized to enhance this healing. One potential strategy that has been suggested is the use of stem cells to accelerate healing. Methods. The following databases were searched: MEDLINE, CENTRAL, EMBASE, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, WHO-ICTRP, ClinicalTrials.gov, as well as reference checking of included studies. The inclusion criteria for the study were: population (any adults who have sustained a fracture, not including those with pre-existing bone defects); intervention (use of stem cells from any source in the fracture site by any mechanism); and control (fracture healing without the use of stem cells). Studies without a comparator were also included. The outcome was any reported outcomes. The study design was randomized controlled trials, non-randomized or observational studies, and case series. Results. In all, 94 eligible studies were identified. The clinical and methodological aspects of the studies were too heterogeneous for a meta-analysis to be undertaken. A narrative synthesis examined study characteristics, stem cell methods (source, aspiration, concentration, and application) and outcomes. Conclusion. Insufficient high-quality evidence is available to determine the efficacy of stem cells for fracture healing. The studies were heterogeneous in population, methods, and outcomes. Work to address these issues and establish standards for future research should be undertaken. Cite this article: Bone Joint Open 2020;1-10:628–638


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 1, Issue 10 | Pages 663 - 668
21 Oct 2020
Clement ND Oussedik S Raza KI Patton RFL Smith K Deehan DJ

Aims. The primary aim was to assess the rate of patient deferral of elective orthopaedic surgery and whether this changed with time during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The secondary aim was to explore the reasons why patients wanted to defer surgery and what measures/circumstances would enable them to go forward with surgery. Methods. Patients were randomly selected from elective orthopaedic waiting lists at three centres in the UK in April, June, August, and September 2020 and were contacted by telephone. Patients were asked whether they wanted to proceed or defer surgery. Patients who wished to defer were asked seven questions relating to potential barriers to proceeding with surgery and were asked whether there were measures/circumstances that would allow them to go forward with surgery. Results. There was a significant decline in the rate of deferral for surgery from April (n = 38/50, 76%), June (n = 68/233, 29%), to August (n = 6/50, 12%) and September (n = 5/100, 5%) (p < 0.001). Patients wishing to defer were older (68 years (SD 10.1) vs 65 (SD 11.9)), more likely to be female (65% (44/68) vs 53% (88/165)) and waiting for a knee arthroplasty (65% (44/68) vs 41% (67/165); p < 0.001). By September 2020, all patients that deferred in June at one centre had proceeded or wanted to proceed with surgery due to a perceived lower risk of acquiring COVID-19 perioperatively (68%, n = 15) or because their symptoms had progressed (32%, n = 7). The most common reason (n = 14/17, 82%) for patients deferring surgery in September was the perceived risk of acquiring COVID-19 while as an inpatient. When asked what measures or circumstances would enable them to proceed with surgery, the most common (n = 7, 41%) response was reassurance of a COVID-19 free hospital. Conclusion. The rate of deferral fell to 5% by September, which was due to a lower perceived risk of contracting COVID-19 perioperatively or worsening of symptoms while waiting. The potential of a COVID-19-free hospital and communication of mortality risk may improve a patient’s willingness to go forward with surgery. Cite this article: Bone Joint Open 2020;1-10:663–668


Bone & Joint Research
Vol. 13, Issue 8 | Pages 411 - 426
28 Aug 2024
Liu D Wang K Wang J Cao F Tao L

Aims

This study explored the shared genetic traits and molecular interactions between postmenopausal osteoporosis (POMP) and sarcopenia, both of which substantially degrade elderly health and quality of life. We hypothesized that these motor system diseases overlap in pathophysiology and regulatory mechanisms.

Methods

We analyzed microarray data from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database using weighted gene co-expression network analysis (WGCNA), machine learning, and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) enrichment analysis to identify common genetic factors between POMP and sarcopenia. Further validation was done via differential gene expression in a new cohort. Single-cell analysis identified high expression cell subsets, with mononuclear macrophages in osteoporosis and muscle stem cells in sarcopenia, among others. A competitive endogenous RNA network suggested regulatory elements for these genes.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 3, Issue 10 | Pages 786 - 794
12 Oct 2022
Harrison CJ Plummer OR Dawson J Jenkinson C Hunt A Rodrigues JN

Aims

The aim of this study was to develop and evaluate machine-learning-based computerized adaptive tests (CATs) for the Oxford Hip Score (OHS), Oxford Knee Score (OKS), Oxford Shoulder Score (OSS), and the Oxford Elbow Score (OES) and its subscales.

Methods

We developed CAT algorithms for the OHS, OKS, OSS, overall OES, and each of the OES subscales, using responses to the full-length questionnaires and a machine-learning technique called regression tree learning. The algorithms were evaluated through a series of simulation studies, in which they aimed to predict respondents’ full-length questionnaire scores from only a selection of their item responses. In each case, the total number of items used by the CAT algorithm was recorded and CAT scores were compared to full-length questionnaire scores by mean, SD, score distribution plots, Pearson’s correlation coefficient, intraclass correlation (ICC), and the Bland-Altman method. Differences between CAT scores and full-length questionnaire scores were contextualized through comparison to the instruments’ minimal clinically important difference (MCID).


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 4, Issue 7 | Pages 539 - 550
21 Jul 2023
Banducci E Al Muderis M Lu W Bested SR

Aims

Safety concerns surrounding osseointegration are a significant barrier to replacing socket prosthesis as the standard of care following limb amputation. While implanted osseointegrated prostheses traditionally occur in two stages, a one-stage approach has emerged. Currently, there is no existing comparison of the outcomes of these different approaches. To address safety concerns, this study sought to determine whether a one-stage osseointegration procedure is associated with fewer adverse events than the two-staged approach.

Methods

A comprehensive electronic search and quantitative data analysis from eligible studies were performed. Inclusion criteria were adults with a limb amputation managed with a one- or two-stage osseointegration procedure with follow-up reporting of complications.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 4, Issue 3 | Pages 146 - 157
7 Mar 2023
Camilleri-Brennan J James S McDaid C Adamson J Jones K O'Carroll G Akhter Z Eltayeb M Sharma H

Aims

Chronic osteomyelitis (COM) of the lower limb in adults can be surgically managed by either limb reconstruction or amputation. This scoping review aims to map the outcomes used in studies surgically managing COM in order to aid future development of a core outcome set.

Methods

A total of 11 databases were searched. A subset of studies published between 1 October 2020 and 1 January 2011 from a larger review mapping research on limb reconstruction and limb amputation for the management of lower limb COM were eligible. All outcomes were extracted and recorded verbatim. Outcomes were grouped and categorized as per the revised Williamson and Clarke taxonomy.


Bone & Joint Research
Vol. 13, Issue 9 | Pages 507 - 512
18 Sep 2024
Farrow L Meek D Leontidis G Campbell M Harrison E Anderson L

Despite the vast quantities of published artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms that target trauma and orthopaedic applications, very few progress to inform clinical practice. One key reason for this is the lack of a clear pathway from development to deployment. In order to assist with this process, we have developed the Clinical Practice Integration of Artificial Intelligence (CPI-AI) framework – a five-stage approach to the clinical practice adoption of AI in the setting of trauma and orthopaedics, based on the IDEAL principles (https://www.ideal-collaboration.net/). Adherence to the framework would provide a robust evidence-based mechanism for developing trust in AI applications, where the underlying algorithms are unlikely to be fully understood by clinical teams.

Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2024;13(9):507–512.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 5, Issue 11 | Pages 953 - 961
1 Nov 2024
Mew LE Heaslip V Immins T Ramasamy A Wainwright TW

Aims

The evidence base within trauma and orthopaedics has traditionally favoured quantitative research methodologies. Qualitative research can provide unique insights which illuminate patient experiences and perceptions of care. Qualitative methods reveal the subjective narratives of patients that are not captured by quantitative data, providing a more comprehensive understanding of patient-centred care. The aim of this study is to quantify the level of qualitative research within the orthopaedic literature.

Methods

A bibliometric search of journals’ online archives and multiple databases was undertaken in March 2024, to identify articles using qualitative research methods in the top 12 trauma and orthopaedic journals based on the 2023 impact factor and SCImago rating. The bibliometric search was conducted and reported in accordance with the preliminary guideline for reporting bibliometric reviews of the biomedical literature (BIBLIO).


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 5, Issue 8 | Pages 697 - 707
22 Aug 2024
Raj S Grover S Spazzapan M Russell B Jaffry Z Malde S Vig S Fleming S

Aims

The aims of this study were to describe the demographic, socioeconomic, and educational factors associated with core surgical trainees (CSTs) who apply to and receive offers for higher surgical training (ST3) posts in Trauma & Orthopaedics (T&O).

Methods

Data collected by the UK Medical Education Database (UKMED) between 1 January 2014 and 31 December 2019 were used in this retrospective longitudinal cohort study comprising 1,960 CSTs eligible for ST3. The primary outcome measures were whether CSTs applied for a T&O ST3 post and if they were subsequently offered a post. A directed acyclic graph was used for detecting confounders and adjusting logistic regression models to calculate odds ratios (ORs), which assessed the association between the primary outcomes and relevant exposures of interest, including: age, sex, ethnicity, parental socioeconomic status (SES), domiciliary status, category of medical school, Situational Judgement Test (SJT) scores at medical school, and success in postgraduate examinations. This study followed STROBE guidelines.


Bone & Joint Research
Vol. 10, Issue 7 | Pages 425 - 436
16 Jul 2021
Frommer A Roedl R Gosheger G Hasselmann J Fuest C Toporowski G Laufer A Tretow H Schulze M Vogt B

Aims

This study aims to enhance understanding of clinical and radiological consequences and involved mechanisms that led to corrosion of the Precice Stryde (Stryde) intramedullary lengthening nail in the post market surveillance era of the device. Between 2018 and 2021 more than 2,000 Stryde nails have been implanted worldwide. However, the outcome of treatment with the Stryde system is insufficiently reported.

Methods

This is a retrospective single-centre study analyzing outcome of 57 consecutive lengthening procedures performed with the Stryde nail at the authors’ institution from February 2019 until November 2020. Macro- and microscopic metallographic analysis of four retrieved nails was conducted. To investigate observed corrosion at telescoping junction, scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and energy dispersive x-ray spectroscopy (EDX) were performed.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 2, Issue 2 | Pages 111 - 118
8 Feb 2021
Pettit M Shukla S Zhang J Sunil Kumar KH Khanduja V

Aims

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted and delayed medical and surgical examinations where attendance is required in person. Our article aims to outline the validity of online assessment, the range of benefits to both candidate and assessor, and the challenges to its implementation. In addition, we propose pragmatic suggestions for its introduction into medical assessment.

Methods

We reviewed the literature concerning the present status of online medical and surgical assessment to establish the perceived benefits, limitations, and potential problems with this method of assessment.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 1, Issue 9 | Pages 605 - 611
28 Sep 2020
McKean D Chung SL Fairhead R Bannister O Magliano M Papanikitas J Wong N Hughes R

Aims

To describe the incidence of adverse clinical outcomes related to COVID-19 infection following corticosteroid injections (CSI) during the COVID-19 pandemic. To describe the incidence of positive SARS-CoV-2 reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing, positive SARS-COV2 IgG antibody testing or positive imaging findings following CSI at our institution during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods

A retrospective observational study was undertaken of consecutive patients who had CSI in our local hospitals between 1 February and 30June 2020. Electronic patient medical records (EPR) and radiology information system (RIS) database were reviewed. SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR testing, SARS-COV2 IgG antibody testing, radiological investigations, patient management, and clinical outcomes were recorded. Lung findings were categorized according to the British Society of Thoracic Imaging (BSTI) guidelines. Reference was made to the incidence of lab-confirmed COVID-19 cases in our region.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 102-B, Issue 9 | Pages 1256 - 1260
14 Sep 2020
Kader N Clement ND Patel VR Caplan N Banaszkiewicz P Kader D

Aims

The risk to patients and healthcare workers of resuming elective orthopaedic surgery following the peak of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has been difficult to quantify. This has prompted governing bodies to adopt a cautious approach that may be impractical and financially unsustainable. The lack of evidence has made it impossible for surgeons to give patients an informed perspective of the consequences of elective surgery in the presence of SARS-CoV-2. This study aims to determine, for the UK population, the probability of a patient being admitted with an undetected SARS-CoV-2 infection and their resulting risk of death; taking into consideration the current disease prevalence, reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing, and preassessment pathway.

Methods

The probability of SARS-CoV-2 infection with a false negative test was calculated using a lower-end RT-PCR sensitivity of 71%, specificity of 95%, and the UK disease prevalence of 0.24% reported in May 2020. Subsequently, a case fatality rate of 20.5% was applied as a worst-case scenario.