Aims. With novel promising therapies potentially limiting progression of Dupuytren’s disease (DD), better patient stratification is needed. We aimed to quantify DD development and progression after seven years in a population-based cohort, and to identify factors predictive of disease development or progression. Methods. All surviving participants from our previous prevalence study were invited to participate in the current prospective cohort study. Participants were examined for presence of DD and Iselin’s classification was applied. They were asked to complete comprehensive questionnaires. Disease progression was defined as advancement to a further Iselin stage or surgery. Potential predictive factors were assessed using multivariable regression analyses. Of 763 participants in our original study, 398 were available for further investigation seven years later. Results. We identified 143/398 (35.9%) participants with DD, of whom 56 (39.2%) were newly diagnosed. Overall, 20/93 (21.5%) previously affected participants had disease progression, while 6/93 (6.5%) patients showed disease regression. Disease progression occurred more often in patients who initially had advanced disease. Multivariable regression analyses revealed that both ectopic lesions and a positive family history of DD are independent predictors of disease progression. Previous hand injury predicts development of DD. Conclusion. Disease progression occurred in 21.5% of DD patients in our study. The higher the initial disease stage, the greater the proportion of participants who had disease progression at follow-up. Both ectopic lesions and a positive family history of DD predict disease progression. These
