Aims. This study aimed to evaluate the incidence and prognosis of patients with spinal metastasis as the initial manifestation of malignancy (SM-IMM). Patients and Methods. We retrospectively reviewed the electronic medical records of 338 patients who underwent surgical treatment for metastatic spinal disease. The enrolled patients were divided into two groups. The SM-IMM group included patients with no history of malignancy whose site of primary malignancy was diagnosed after the identification of spinal metastasis. The other group included patients with a history of treatment for primary malignancy who then developed spinal metastasis (SM-DTM). The incidence of SM-IMM by site of primary malignancy was calculated. The difference between prognoses after surgical treatment for SM-IMM and SM-DTM was established. Results. The median follow-up period was 11.5 months (interquartile range (IQR) 3.2 to 13.4) after surgical treatment. During the follow-up period, 264 patients died; 74 patients survived. The SM-IMM group consisted of 94 patients (27.8%). The site of primary malignancy in the SM-IMM group was lung in 35/103 patients (34.0%), liver in 8/45 patients (17.8%), kidney in 10/33 patients (30.3%), colorectum in 3/29 patients (10.3%), breast in 3/22 patients (13.6%), prostate in 3/10 patients (30%), thyroid in 4/8 patients (50%), and ‘other’ in 28/88 patients (31.8%). On Kaplan–Meier survival analysis, the SM-IMM group showed a significantly longer survival than the SM-DTM group (p = 0.013). The mean survival time was 23.0 months (95% confidence interval (CI) 15.5 to 30.5) in the SM-IMM group and 15.5 months (95% CI 11.8 to 19.2) in the SM-DTM group. Conclusion. Of the 338 enrolled patients who underwent surgical treatment for spinal metastasis, 94 patients (27.8%) underwent surgical treatment for SM-IMM. The SM-IMM group had an acceptable prognosis with surgical treatment. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B:1379–1384

Aims. The outcome following the development of neurological complications after corrective surgery for scoliosis varies from full recovery to a permanent deficit. This study aimed to assess the prognosis and recovery of major neurological deficits in these patients, and to determine the risk factors for non-recovery, at a minimum follow-up of two years. Methods. A major neurological deficit was identified in 65 of 8,870 patients who underwent corrective surgery for scoliosis, including eight with complete paraplegia and 57 with incomplete paraplegia. There were 23 male and 42 female patients. Their mean age was 25.0 years (SD 16.3). The aetiology of the scoliosis was idiopathic (n = 6), congenital (n = 23), neuromuscular (n = 11), neurofibromatosis type 1 (n = 6), and others (n = 19). Neurological function was determined by the American Spinal Injury Association (ASIA) impairment scale at a mean follow-up of 45.4 months (SD 17.2). the patients were divided into those with recovery and those with no recovery according to the ASIA scale during follow-up. Results. The incidence of major deficit was 0.73%. At six-month follow-up, 39 patients (60%) had complete recovery and ten (15.4%) had incomplete recovery; these percentages improved to 70.8% (46) and 16.9% (11) at follow-up of two years, respectively. Eight patients showed no recovery at the final follow-up. The cause of injury was mechanical in 39 patients and ischaemic in five. For 11 patients with misplaced implants and haematoma formation, nine had complete recovery. Fisher’s exact test showed a significant difference in the aetiology of the scoliosis (p = 0.007) and preoperative deficit (p = 0.016) between the recovery and non-recovery groups. A preoperative deficit was found to be significantly associated with non-recovery (odds ratio 8.5 (95% confidence interval 1.676 to 43.109); p = 0.010) in a multivariate regression model. Conclusion. For patients with scoliosis who develop a major neurological deficit after corrective surgery, recovery (complete and incomplete) can be expected in 87.7%. The first three to six months is the time window for recovery. In patients with misplaced implants and haematoma formation, the prognosis is satisfactory with appropriate early intervention. Patients with a preoperative neurological deficit are at a significant risk of having a permanent deficit. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(1):103–111

Aims. Most patients with advanced malignancy suffer bone metastases, which pose a significant challenge to orthopaedic services and burden to the health economy. This study aimed to assess adherence to the British Orthopaedic Oncology Society (BOOS)/British Orthopaedic Association (BOA) guidelines on patients with metastatic bone disease (MBD) in the UK. Methods. A prospective, multicentre, national collaborative audit was designed and delivered by a trainee-led collaborative group. Data were collected over three months (1 April 2021 to 30 June 2021) for all patients presenting with MBD. A data collection tool allowed investigators at each hospital to compare practice against guidelines. Data were collated and analyzed centrally to quantify compliance from 84 hospitals in the UK for a total of 1,137 patients who were eligible for inclusion. Results. A total of 846 patients with pelvic and appendicular MBD were analyzed, after excluding those with only spinal metastatic disease. A designated MBD lead was not present in 39% of centres (33/84). Adequate radiographs were not performed in 19% of patients (160/846), and 29% (247/846) did not have an up-to-date CT of thorax, abdomen, and pelvis to stage their disease. Compliance was low obtaining an oncological opinion (69%; 584/846) and prognosis estimations (38%; 223/846). Surgery was performed in 38% of patients (319/846), with the rates of up-to-date radiological investigations and oncology input with prognosis below the expected standard. Of the 25% (215/846) presenting with a solitary metastasis, a tertiary opinion from a MBD centre and biopsy was sought in 60% (130/215). Conclusion. Current practice in the UK does not comply with national guidelines, especially regarding investigations prior to surgery and for patients with solitary metastases. This study highlights the need for investment and improvement in care. The recent publication of British Orthopaedic Association Standards for Trauma (BOAST) defines auditable standards to drive these improvements for this vulnerable patient group. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(10):1115–1122

Aims. The modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS) uses preoperative CRP and albumin to calculate a score from 0 to 2 (2 being associated with poor outcomes). mGPS is validated in multiple carcinomas. To date, its use in soft-tissue sarcoma (STS) is limited, with only small cohorts reporting that increased mGPS scores correlates with decreased survival in STS patients. Methods. This retrospective multicentre cohort study identified 493 STS patients using clinical databases from six collaborating hospitals in three countries. Centres performed a retrospective data collection for patient demographics, preoperative blood results (CRP and albumin levels and neutrophil, leucocyte, and platelets counts), and oncological outcomes (disease-free survival, local, or metastatic recurrence) with a minimum of two years' follow-up. Results. We found that increased mGPS, tumour size, grade, neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio, and disease recurrence were associated with reduced survival. Importantly, mGPS was the best at stratifying prognosis and could be used in conjunction with tumour grade to sub-stratify patient survival. Conclusion. This study demonstrated that prognosis of localized STS strongly correlates with mGPS, as an increasing score is associated with a poorer outcome. We note that 203 patients (41%) with an STS have evidence of systemic inflammation. We recommend the mGPS and other biochemical blood indicators be introduced into the routine diagnostic assessment in STS patients to stratify patient prognosis. Its use will support clinical decision-making, especially when morbid treatment options such as amputation are being considered. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(1):168–176

Seventy children who had suffered from Perthes' disease were reviewed clinically and radiologically three to eight years from the onset of the condition in order to determine retrospectively the most satisfactory method of assessing the prognosis and the correlation between the clinical and radiological result. In younger children the femoral head was more likely to be spherical at the conclusion of the pathological process but not necessarily of normal proportions nor normally covered by the acetabulum. The prognosis was significantly poorer for girls than for boys. Clinical factors were not an aid to prognosis in the individual cases, but overall there was a close correlation between the clinical and the radiological end-results. The most reliable radiological factors indicating the prognosis were the extent of uncovering of the femoral head, the Catterall grouping, the presence of calcification lateral to the outer limit of the acetabulum and lateral displacement of the femoral head, as measured by comparing the head to tear-drop distances on each side

The clinical results in a series of 131 patients with 134 brachial plexus injuries were analysed to determine the factors affecting prognosis. Isolated injuries to the upper trunk had the best prognosis, but the prognoses of isolated injuries to the cords, upper roots and lower trunk were not as good. Complete injuries of the plexus had the worst prognosis. Pain which persisted for more than six months was a bad prognostic sign for neurological recovery regardless of the location of the lesion. Horner's syndrome was not always accompanied by a bad prognosis. Operation did not affect the prognosis except in open lacerations. A pseudomeningocele detected by myelography usually precluded recovery in the root at the level of the pseudomeningocele

Aims. The aims of this study were to identify and evaluate the current literature examining the prognostic factors which are associated with failure of total elbow arthroplasty (TEA). Methods. Electronic literature searches were conducted using MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Cochrane. All studies reporting prognostic estimates for factors associated with the revision of a primary TEA were included. The risk of bias was assessed using the Quality In Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) tool, and the quality of evidence was assessed using the modified Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluations (GRADE) framework. Due to low quality of the evidence and the heterogeneous nature of the studies, a narrative synthesis was used. Results. A total of 19 studies met the inclusion criteria, investigating 28 possible prognostic factors. Most QUIPS domains (84%) were rated as moderate to high risk of bias. The quality of the evidence was low or very low for all prognostic factors. In low-quality evidence, prognostic factors with consistent associations with failure of TEA in more than one study were: the sequelae of trauma leading to TEA, either independently or combined with acute trauma, and male sex. Several other studies investigating sex reported no association. The evidence for other factors was of very low quality and mostly involved exploratory studies. Conclusion. The current evidence investigating the prognostic factors associated with failure of TEA is of low or very low quality, and studies generally have a moderate to high risk of bias. Prognostic factors are subject to uncertainty, should be interpreted with caution, and are of little clinical value. Higher-quality evidence is required to determine robust prognostic factors for failure of TEA. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2024;13(5):201–213

1. Three hundred and twenty cases of tuberculosis of the hip joint have been analysed and the late results assessed three or more years after discharge from hospital. 2. The primary bone focus involved the acetabulum alone in 39·3 per cent; the acetabulum and femoral head in 34·1 per cent; the head of femur alone in 19·2 per cent, and the femoral neck alone in 7·4 per cent. In 101 cases widespread destruction of the joint had taken place by the time the patient first came under observation. 3. Premature epiphysial fusion round the knee joint of the affected side occurred in 23 per cent of all patients under the age of fifteen years. 4. When hip disease was complicated by multiple foci of active tuberculosis or by secondarily infected abscesses and sinuses, the prognosis was seriously worsened. 5. Significant late deformity occurred in 38·3 per cent of patients discharged with "sound" fibrous ankylosis, and in 60·5 per cent of those with an unstable fibrous ankylosis. 6. Of 187 patients observed for more than three years after discharge from hospital 174 returned to full activity, seven were partly incapacitated and six were totally incapacitated. 7. Analysis of the late results suggests that the prognosis is best when an adequate period of conservative treatment is followed by some form of arthrodesis operation

Aims. Machine-learning (ML) prediction models in orthopaedic trauma hold great promise in assisting clinicians in various tasks, such as personalized risk stratification. However, an overview of current applications and critical appraisal to peer-reviewed guidelines is lacking. The objectives of this study are to 1) provide an overview of current ML prediction models in orthopaedic trauma; 2) evaluate the completeness of reporting following the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) statement; and 3) assess the risk of bias following the Prediction model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) tool. Methods. A systematic search screening 3,252 studies identified 45 ML-based prediction models in orthopaedic trauma up to January 2023. The TRIPOD statement assessed transparent reporting and the PROBAST tool the risk of bias. Results. A total of 40 studies reported on training and internal validation; four studies performed both development and external validation, and one study performed only external validation. The most commonly reported outcomes were mortality (33%, 15/45) and length of hospital stay (9%, 4/45), and the majority of prediction models were developed in the hip fracture population (60%, 27/45). The overall median completeness for the TRIPOD statement was 62% (interquartile range 30 to 81%). The overall risk of bias in the PROBAST tool was low in 24% (11/45), high in 69% (31/45), and unclear in 7% (3/45) of the studies. High risk of bias was mainly due to analysis domain concerns including small datasets with low number of outcomes, complete-case analysis in case of missing data, and no reporting of performance measures. Conclusion. The results of this study showed that despite a myriad of potential clinically useful applications, a substantial part of ML studies in orthopaedic trauma lack transparent reporting, and are at high risk of bias. These problems must be resolved by following established guidelines to instil confidence in ML models among patients and clinicians. Otherwise, there will remain a sizeable gap between the development of ML prediction models and their clinical application in our day-to-day orthopaedic trauma practice. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(1):9–19

Injury of the neck may result when a motor vehicle is run into from behind; such injury is frequently the cause of prolonged disability and litigation. We report a series of 61 patients with these injuries. A classification, based upon the presenting symptoms and physical signs has been evolved. This classification is shown to be a reliable basis for formulating a prognosis. Factors which adversely affect prognosis include the presence of objective neurological signs, stiffness of the neck, muscle spasm, and pre-existing degenerative spondylosis

1. Forty-five cases of zoster paralysis, not involving the cranial nerves, are detailed. These include eighteen cases not previously published. Of these eighteen patients, one-third were referred for an orthopaedic opinion. 2. Complete or almost full recovery occurred within a year in two-thirds of the patients. Permanent paralysis occurred in one-sixth of the patients studied. 3. Muscles that failed to recover were mainly or wholly supplied from single segments of the spinal cord; so the prognosis must be guarded in those cases in which such muscles are completely paralysed. 4. Various phenomena occurring in zoster paralysis are discussed

We undertook a prospective study to evaluate the prognostic significance of the serum levels of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) in predicting the survival of patients with osteosarcoma. The levels were measured by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in 15 patients with osteosarcoma before commencing treatment. The patients were divided into two groups, with a high or a low serum VEGF level, and the incidence of metastases and overall survival rate were compared. No significant relationship was observed between the serum VEGF levels and gender, age, the size of the tumour or the response to pre-operative chemotherapy. Patients with a serum VEGF > 1000 pg/ml had significantly worse survival than those with a level < 1000 pg/ml (p = 0.002). The serum VEGF level may be useful in predicting the prognosis for survival in patients with osteosarcoma

Between 1986 and 2002, 42 patients with synchronous multifocal osteosarcoma were treated with two different protocols of neoadjuvant chemotherapy. When feasible, the primary and secondary tumours were excised as a combined procedure. After initial chemotherapy 26 patients were excluded from simultaneous excision of all their secondary bone lesions as their disease was too advanced. In 12 patients only isolated excision of the primary lesion was possible. For 16 patients simultaneous operations were conducted to excise the primary and secondary lesions. This involved two supplementary sites in 15 patients and four additional sites in one patient. Of these, 15 attained remission but 12 relapsed and died (11 within two years). Three patients remained disease-free at five, six and 17 years. The histological response to pre-operative chemotherapy of the primary and secondary lesions was concordant in 13 of the 16 patients who underwent simultaneous operations at more than one site. The prognosis for synchronous multifocal osteosarcoma remains poor despite combined chemotherapy and surgery. The homogeneous histological responses in a large proportion of the primary and secondary lesions implies that synchronous multifocal osteosarcoma tumours are not multicentric in origin, but probably represent bone-to-bone metastases from a single tumour

A review was performed of 86 cases of infantile idiopathic scoliosis treated between 1962 and 1979. The single primary curves were classified as resolving, stable, progressive with a low rib--vertebra angle difference (RVAD) and progressive with a high RVAD. Two single primary curves subsequently developed a second curve and 17 were double when first diagnosed. Prognosis was difficult to establish before the age of five years. Only 18 per cent of curves showing progression beyond 50 degrees reached that point before the age of four. Conversely, if a scoliosis of 50 degrees or more was present before the age of four it always progressed. A more favourable outcome was indicated by male sex, a left-sided curve, a low initial curve measurement, an RVAD of less than 20 degrees in the initial radiograph, and the onset of scoliosis in the first year of life

We compared the prognostic value of the Catterall grouping, the Salter-Thompson grading, the arthrographic shape of the femoral head, and the Herring lateral pillar grouping during the fragmentation stage of Perthes’ disease in 73 patients with 81 affected hips. Radiographs were available for study from the onset of the disease until skeletal maturity. We used the Stulberg classification to assess outcome. The Herring grade and arthrographic sphericity proved to be the best predictors of final outcome. Combining these two values further increased the predictive value. All but one patient in Herring group A achieved an excellent outcome. In Herring group B, the age of the child and the sphericity of the femoral head influenced the end result. If the child was less than seven years old at the onset of symptoms the prognosis was invariably good and all spherical hips in group B had a good outcome with Stulberg grades 1 or 2. Moderately and severely deformed hips on arthrography resulted in Stulberg 3 and 4 hips. None of the hips in Herring group C had a normal appearance at maturity and the outcome was not significantly influenced by the age at onset or the arthrographic appearance

Aims. The aims of this study were to evaluate the long-term outcome of surgery for bone or soft-tissue metastases from renal cell carcinoma (RCC) and to determine factors that affect prognosis. Patients and Methods. Between 1993 and 2014, 58 patients underwent surgery for bone or soft-tissue metastases from RCC at our hospital. There were 46 men and 12 women with a mean age of 60 years (25 to 84). The mean follow-up period was 52 months (1 to 257). The surgical sites included the spine (33 patients), appendicular skeleton (ten patients), pelvis (eight patients), thorax (four patients), and soft tissue (three patients). The surgical procedures were en bloc metastasectomy in 46 patients (including 33 patients of total en bloc spondylectomy (TES)) and intralesional curettage in 12 patients. These patients were retrospectively evaluated for factors associated with prognosis. Results. The one-, three-, five-, ten-, and 15-year overall survival (OS) rates were 89%, 75%, 62%, 48%, and 25%, respectively. The median survival time (MST) was 127 months for en bloc metastasectomy and 54 months for intralesional curettage and bone grafting. The median survival time was 127 months for the spine, 140 months for lesions of the appendicular skeleton, and 54 months for the pelvis. Multivariate analysis showed that non-clear cell type RCC and metastases to more than two sites were independent risk factors for a poor prognosis. Conclusion. Patients with bone or soft-tissue metastases from a RCC have a reasonable prognosis, making surgical resection a viable option even in patients in whom the metastases are advanced. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2018;100-B:1241–8

1. The methods by which epiphyses receive their blood supply was studied by means of India ink injections in monkeys. Two types were identified depending upon whether the epiphysis was entirely or partly covered by articular cartilage. In the former, nutrient vessels enter the epiphysis by traversing the perichondrium at the periphery of the plate. In the latter they enter the epiphysis by penetrating the cortex at the side of the epiphysis at a point remote from the epiphysial plate. 2. The histological changes after separation of the second type of epiphysis were also studied. After temporary interference with endochondral ossification marked by increased thickness of the epiphysial plate, healing occurred so rapidly that within three weeks it was difficult to determine that the epiphysis had been separated at all. 3. It is concluded that when nutrient vessels enter an epiphysis at a point remote from the epiphysial plate, that epiphysis can be separated without serious disturbance to its blood supply and accordingly without interference with its capacity for growth. As it has been established that an epiphysis which is entirely covered by articular cartilage cannot be separated without destruction of its blood supply and subsequent avascular necrosis (Harris and Hobson 1956), it is concluded that the prognosis of an epiphysial separation is dependent upon the degree of damage to its blood supply rather than the mechanical disturbance of the epiphysial plate

In fifty-two knees with spontaneous osteonecrosis the diagnosis was based on a subchondral transradiancy in the weight-bearing surface of the medial femoral condyle. Strontium-85 scintimetry showed a unique pattern, indicating a lively repair reaction by localised high values. Thirteen of fifteen knees followed between two and twenty-three years developed osteoarthritis. The prognosis was based on the size of the transradiancy and the focality of the lesion as determined by scintimetry. It is suggested that scintimetry permits differentiation between primary osteoarthritis and arthritis secondary to osteonecrosis

We reviewed 43 patients who had sustained soft-tissue injuries of the neck after a mean 10.8 years. Of these, only 12% had recovered completely. Residual symptoms were intrusive in 28% and severe in 12%. Pain in the neck and lower back was the commonest complaint and older patients had a worse prognosis. After two years, symptoms did not alter with further passage of time

We studied the rates of revision for 53 698 primary total hip replacements (THRs) in nine different groups of disease. Factors which have previously been shown to be associated with increased risk of revision, such as male gender, young age, or certain types of uncemented prosthesis, showed important differences between the diagnostic groups. Without adjustment for these factors we observed an increased risk of revision in patients with paediatric hip diseases and in a small heterogeneous ‘other’ group, compared with patients with primary osteoarthritis. Most differences were reduced or disappeared when an adjustment for the prognostic factors was made. After adjustment, an increased relative risk (RR) of revision compared with primary osteoarthritis was seen in hips with complications after fracture of the femoral neck (RR = 1.3, p = 0.0005), in hips with congenital dislocation (RR = 1.3, p = 0.03), and in the heterogenous ‘other’ group. The analyses were also undertaken in a more homogenous subgroup of 16 217 patients which had a Charnley prosthesis implanted with high-viscosity cement. The only difference in this group was an increased risk for revision in patients who had undergone THR for complications after fracture of the femoral neck (RR = 1.5, p = 0.0005). THR for diagnoses seen mainly among young patients had a good prognosis, but they had more often received inferior uncemented implants. If a cemented Charnley prosthesis is used, the type of disease leading to THR seems in most cases to have only a minor influence on the survival of the prosthesis