To develop and externally validate a parsimonious statistical prediction model of 90-day mortality after elective total hip arthroplasty (THA), and to provide a web calculator for clinical usage. We included 53,099 patients with cemented THA due to osteoarthritis from the Swedish Hip Arthroplasty Registry for model derivation and internal validation, as well as 125,428 patients from England and Wales recorded in the National Joint Register for England, Wales, Northern Ireland, the Isle of Man, and the States of Guernsey (NJR) for external model validation. A model was developed using a bootstrap ranking procedure with a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression model combined with piecewise linear regression. Discriminative ability was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Calibration belt plots were used to assess model calibration.Aims
Methods
In Africa the amount of joint replacement surgery is increasing, but the indications for operation and the age of the patients are considerably different from those in the developed world. New centres with variable standards of care and training of the surgeons are performing these procedures and it is important that a proper audit of this work is undertaken. In Malawi, we have pioneered a Registry which includes all joint replacements that have been carried out in the country. The data gathered include the age, gender, indication for operation, the prosthesis used, the surgical approach, the use of bone graft, the type of cement, pressurising systems and the thromboprophylaxis used. All patients have their clinical scores recorded pre-operatively and then after three and six months and at one year. Before operation all patients are counselled and on consent their HIV status is established allowing analysis of the effect of HIV on successful joint replacement. To date, 73 total hip replacements (THRs) have been carried out in 58 patients by four surgeons in four different hospitals. The most common indications for THR were avascular necrosis (35 hips) and osteoarthritis (22 hips). The information concerning 20 total knee replacements has also been added to the Registry.
Loss of bone stock is a major problem in revision surgery of the hip. Impaction bone grafting of the femur is frequently used when dealing with deficient bone stock. In this retrospective study a consecutive series of 68 patients (69 hips) who had revision of a hip replacement with femoral impaction grafting were reviewed. Irradiated bone allograft was used in all hips. Radiological measurement of subsidence of the stem, incorporation of the graft and remodelling was carried out and showed incorporation of the graft in 26 of 69 hips (38%). However, there was no evidence of trabecular remodelling. Moderate subsidence of 5 mm to 10 mm occurred in ten hips (14.5%), and massive subsidence of >
10 mm in five (7.2%). The results of this study are less favourable than those of others describing studies of revision of the femoral stem using impaction bone grafting. The absence of the characteristic changes of graft remodelling noted in other series raises the question as to whether irradiated bone graft may be a significant factor influencing the post-operative outcome.
