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The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 105-B, Issue 7 | Pages 801 - 807
1 Jul 2023
Dietrich G Terrier A Favre M Elmers J Stockton L Soppelsa D Cherix S Vauclair F

Aims. Tobacco, in addition to being one of the greatest public health threats facing our world, is believed to have deleterious effects on bone metabolism and especially on bone healing. It has been described in the literature that patients who smoke are approximately twice as likely to develop a nonunion following a non-specific bone fracture. For clavicle fractures, this risk is unclear, as is the impact that such a complication might have on the initial management of these fractures. Methods. A systematic review and meta-analysis were performed for conservatively treated displaced midshaft clavicle fractures. Embase, PubMed, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (via Cochrane Library) were searched from inception to 12 May 2022, with supplementary searches in Open Grey, ClinicalTrials.gov, ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, and Google Scholar. The searches were performed without limits for publication date or languages. Results. The meta-analysis included eight studies, 2,285 observations, and 304 events (nonunion). The random effects model predicted a pooled risk ratio (RR) of 3.68 (95% confidence interval 1.87 to 7.23), which can be considered significant (p = 0.003). It indicates that smoking more than triples the risk of nonunion when a fracture is treated conservatively. Conclusion. Smoking confers a RR of 3.68 for developing a nonunion in patients with a displaced middle third clavicle fracture treated conservatively. We know that most patients with pseudarthrosis will have pain and a poor functional outcome. Therefore, patients should be informed of the significantly higher risks of nonunion and offered smoking cessation efforts and counselling. Moreover, surgery should be considered for any patient who smokes with this type of fracture. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(7):801–807


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 104-B, Issue 1 | Pages 150 - 156
1 Jan 2022
Leino OK Lehtimäki KK Mäkelä K Äärimaa V Ekman E

Aims. Proximal humeral fractures (PHFs) are common. There is increasing evidence that most of these fractures should be treated conservatively. However, recent studies have shown an increase in use of operative treatment. The aim of this study was to identify the trends in the incidence and methods of treatment of PHFs in Finland. Methods. The study included all Finnish inhabitants aged ≥ 16 years between 1997 and 2019. All records, including diagnostic codes for PHFs and all surgical procedure codes for these fractures, were identified from two national registers. Data exclusion criteria were implemented in order to identify only acute PHFs, and the operations performed to treat them. Results. During the 23-year study period, 79,676 PHFs were identified, and 14,941 operations were performed to treat them. The incidence of PHFs steadily increased. In 2019, the overall incidence was 105 per 100,000 person-years (10. 5. ). The sex-adjusted incidence for females was 147.1 per 10. 5. , and the age-adjusted incidence for patients aged ≥ 80 years was 407.1 per 10. 5. The incidence of operative treatment for PHFs rose during the first half of the study period and decreased during the second half. The use of plate osteosynthesis in particular decreased. In 2019, the incidence of operative treatment for PHFs was 13.2 per 10. 5. , with 604 operations. Conclusion. Although the incidence of PHFs is steadily increasing, particularly in elderly females, the incidence of operative treatment is now decreasing, which is in line with current literature regarding their treatment. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(1):150–156


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 105-B, Issue 9 | Pages 1020 - 1029
1 Sep 2023
Trouwborst NM ten Duis K Banierink H Doornberg JN van Helden SH Hermans E van Lieshout EMM Nijveldt R Tromp T Stirler VMA Verhofstad MHJ de Vries JPPM Wijffels MME Reininga IHF IJpma FFA

Aims

The aim of this study was to investigate the association between fracture displacement and survivorship of the native hip joint without conversion to a total hip arthroplasty (THA), and to determine predictors for conversion to THA in patients treated nonoperatively for acetabular fractures.

Methods

A multicentre cross-sectional study was performed in 170 patients who were treated nonoperatively for an acetabular fracture in three level 1 trauma centres. Using the post-injury diagnostic CT scan, the maximum gap and step-off values in the weightbearing dome were digitally measured by two trauma surgeons. Native hip survival was reported using Kaplan-Meier curves. Predictors for conversion to THA were determined using Cox regression analysis.


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 89-B, Issue 1 | Pages 89 - 93
1 Jan 2007
Herscovici D Scaduto JM Infante A

Between 1992 and 2000, 57 patients with 57 isolated fractures of the medial malleolus were treated conservatively by immobilisation in a cast. The results were assessed by examination, radiography and completion of the short form-36 questionnaire and American Orthopaedic Foot and Ankle Society ankle-hindfoot score. Of the 57 fractures 55 healed without further treatment. The mean combined dorsi- and plantar flexion was 52.3° (25° to 82°) and the mean short form-36 and American Orthopaedic Foot and Ankle Society scores 48.1 (28 to 60) and 89.8 (69 to 100), respectively. At review there was no evidence of medial instability, dermatological complications, malalignment of the mortise or of post-traumatic arthritis. Isolated fractures of the medial malleolus can obtain high rates of union and good functional results with conservative treatment. Operation should be reserved for bi- or trimalleolar fractures, open fractures, injuries which compromise the skin or those involving the plafond or for patients who develop painful nonunion


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 91-B, Issue 9 | Pages 1213 - 1216
1 Sep 2009
Weber DM Fricker R Ramseier LE

This is a retrospective study of six children with ununited scaphoid fractures treated conservatively. Their mean age was 12.8 years (9.7 to 16.3). Five had no early treatment. Radiological signs of nonunion were found at a mean of 4.6 months (3 to 7) after injury. Treatment consisted of cast immobilisation until clinical and radiological union. The mean clinical and radiological follow-up was for 67 months (17 to 90). We assessed the symptoms, the range of movement of the wrist and the grip strength to calculate the Modified Mayo Wrist score. The fracture united in all patients after a mean period of immobilisation of 5.3 months (3 to 7). Five patients were pain free; one had mild pain. All returned to regular activities, and had a range of movement and grip strength within 25% of normal, resulting in an excellent Modified Mayo Wrist score. Prolonged treatment with cast immobilisation resulted in union of the fracture and an excellent Modified Wrist Score in all patients


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 78-B, Issue 3 | Pages 410 - 412
1 May 1996
Rawes ML Dias JJ

We have reviewed 30 patients who had been treated conservatively for acromioclavicular dislocation between 1979 and 1982 at an average of 12.5 years after the injury. All except one had a good outcome as did five others contacted by telephone. In all patients reviewed the acromioclavicular joint remained subluxed or dislocated. With conservative treatment a good long-term outcome can be expected without restoration of the anatomical configuration of the joint


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 90-B, Issue 1 | Pages 66 - 71
1 Jan 2008
McQueen MM Gelbke MK Wakefield A Will EM Gaebler C

We randomly allocated 60 consecutive patients with fractures of the waist of the scaphoid to percutaneous fixation with a cannulated Acutrak screw or immobilisation in a cast. The range of movement, the grip and pinch strength, the modified Green/O’Brien functional score, return to work and sports, and radiological evidence of union were evaluated at each follow-up visit. Patients were followed sequentially for one year. Those undergoing percutaneous screw fixation showed a quicker time to union (9.2 weeks vs 13.9 weeks, p < 0.001) than those treated with a cast. There was a trend towards a higher rate of nonunion in the non-operative group, although this was not statistically significant. Patients treated by operation had a more rapid return of function and to sport and full work compared with those managed conservatively. There was a very low complication rate. We recommend that all active patients should be offered percutaneous stabilisation for fractures of the waist of the scaphoid


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 78-B, Issue 4 | Pages 568 - 572
1 Jul 1996
Port AM McVie JL Naylor G Kreibich DN

We compared two conservative methods of treating Weber B1 (Lauge-Hansen supination-eversion 2) isolated fractures of the lateral malleolus in 65 patients. Treatment by immediate weight-bearing and mobilisation resulted in earlier rehabilitation than immobilisation for four weeks in a plaster cast. There was no significant difference in the amount of pain experienced or in the requirement for analgesics and early mobilisation was not associated with any complications. We therefore advocate early mobilisation for these stable ankle fractures


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 93-B, Issue 7 | Pages 975 - 979
1 Jul 2011
Gurkan V Dursun M Orhun H Sari F Bulbul M Aydogan M

A high rate of complications is associated with open reduction and internal fixation of Sanders type 4 fractures of the calcaneum. We assessed the long-term outcome of 83 Sanders type 4 comminuted intra-articular fractures of the calcaneum in 64 patients who underwent non-operative treatment between 1999 and 2005. Each fracture was treated by closed reduction and immobilisation in a long leg cast. Patients were reviewed every three months in the first year, and every six months thereafter. At each visit, the involved ankles were assessed by the American Orthopaedic Foot and Ankle Society (AOFAS) criteria. The degree of fracture healing and the presence of osteoarthritis were assessed.

At a mean follow-up of 51 months (24 to 70) the mean AOFAS score was 72 (52 to 92). Osteoarthritis was scored radiologically using Graves’ classification and was evident in the subtalar joints of 75 ankles (90%) on x-ray and in all ankles on CT scans, of which 20 were grade 0 or 1, 39 grade 2, and 24 grade 3.

A non-operative approach to treating these fractures may be simpler, less expensive, easier to administer with fewer complications, and may be better tolerated than surgery, by many patients.


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 83-B, Issue 4 | Pages 525 - 529
1 May 2001
Makwana NK Bhowal B Harper WM Hui AW

Forty-seven patients over the age of 55 years with a displaced fracture of the ankle were entered into a prospective, randomised study in order to compare open reduction and internal fixation with closed treatment in a plaster cast; 36 were reviewed after a mean of 27 months. The outcome was assessed clinically, radiologically and functionally using the Olerud score.

The results showed that anatomical reduction was significantly less reliable (p = 0.03) and loss of reduction significantly more common (p = 0.001) in the group with closed treatment. Those managed by open reduction and internal fixation had a significantly higher functional outcome score (p = 0.03) and a significantly better range of movement of the ankle (p = 0.044) at review.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 3, Issue 12 | Pages 953 - 959
23 Dec 2022
Raval P See A Singh HP

Aims. Distal third clavicle (DTC) fractures are increasing in incidence. Due to their instability and nonunion risk, they prove difficult to treat. Several different operative options for DTC fixation are reported but current evidence suggests variability in operative fixation. Given the lack of consensus, our objective was to determine the current epidemiological trends in DTC as well as their management within the UK. Methods. A multicentre retrospective cohort collaborative study was conducted. All patients over the age of 18 with an isolated DTC fracture in 2019 were included. Demographic variables were recorded: age; sex; side of injury; mechanism of injury; modified Neer classification grading; operative technique; fracture union; complications; and subsequent procedures. Baseline characteristics were described for demographic variables. Categorical variables were expressed as frequencies and percentages. Results. A total of 859 patients from 18 different NHS trusts (15 trauma units and three major trauma centres) were included. The mean age was 57 years (18 to 99). Overall, 56% of patients (n = 481) were male. The most common mechanisms of injury were simple fall (57%; n = 487) and high-energy fall (29%; n = 248); 87% (n = 748) were treated conservatively and 54% (n = 463) were Neer type I fractures. Overall, 32% of fractures (n = 275) were type II (22% type IIa (n = 192); 10% type IIb (n = 83)). With regards to operative management, 89% of patients (n = 748) who underwent an operation were under the age of 60. The main fixation methods were: hook plate (n = 47); locking plate (n = 34); tightrope (n = 5); and locking plate and tight rope (n = 7). Conclusion. Our study is the largest epidemiological review of DTC fractures in the UK. It is also the first to review the practice of DTC fixation. Most fractures are being treated nonoperatively. However, younger patients, suffering a higher-energy mechanism of injury, are more likely to undergo surgery. Hook plates are the predominantly used fixation method followed by locking plate. The literature is sparse on the best method of fixation for optimal outcomes for these patients. To answer this, a pragmatic RCT to determine optimal fixation method is required. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(12):953–959


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 101-B, Issue 8 | Pages 995 - 1001
1 Aug 2019
Nicholson JA Clement N Goudie E Robinson CM

Aims. The primary aim of this study was to establish the cost-effectiveness of the early fixation of displaced midshaft clavicle fractures. Patients and Methods. A cost analysis was conducted within a randomized controlled trial comparing conservative management (n = 92) versus early plate fixation (n = 86) of displaced midshaft clavicular fractures. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was used to express the cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). The Six-Dimension Short-Form Health Survey (SF-6D) score was used as the preference-based health index to calculate the cost per QALY at 12 months after the injury. Results. The mean 12-month SF-6D was 0.9522 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.9355 to 0.9689) following conservative management and 0.9607 (95% CI 0.9447 to 0.9767) following fixation, giving an advantage for fixation of 0.0085, which was not statistically significant (p = 0.46). The mean cost per patient was £1322.69 for conservative management and £5405.32 for early fixation. This gave an ICER of £480 309.41 per QALY. For a threshold of £20 000 per QALY, the benefit of fixation would need to be present for 24 years to be cost-effective compared with conservative treatment. Linear regression analysis identified nonunion as the only factor to adversely influence the SF-6D at 12 months (p < 0.001). Conclusion. Routine plate fixation of displaced midshaft clavicular fractures is not cost-effective. Nonunion following conservative management has an increased morbidity with comparable expense to early fixation. This may suggest that a targeted approach of fixation in patients who are at higher risk of nonunion would be more cost-effective than the routine fixation of all displaced fractures. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B:995–1001


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 104-B, Issue 8 | Pages 997 - 1008
1 Aug 2022

Aims. The aim of this study was to describe the management and associated outcomes of patients sustaining a femoral hip periprosthetic fracture (PPF) in the UK population. Methods. This was a multicentre retrospective cohort study including adult patients who presented to 27 NHS hospitals with 539 new PPFs between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018. Data collected included: management strategy (operative and nonoperative), length of stay, discharge destination, and details of post-treatment outcomes (reoperation, readmission, and 30-day and 12-month mortality). Descriptive analysis by fracture type was performed, and predictors of PPF management and outcomes were assessed using mixed-effects logistic regression. Results. In all, 417 fractures (77%) were managed operatively and 122 (23%) conservatively. The median time to surgery was four days (interquartile range (IQR) 2 to 7). Of those undergoing surgery, 246 (59%) underwent revision and/or fixation and 169 (41%) fixation alone. The surgical strategy used differed by Unified Classification System for PPF type, with the highest rate of revision in B2/B3 fractures (both 77%, 176/228 and 24/31, respectively) and the highest rate of fixation alone in B1- (55/78; 71%) and C-type (49/65; 75%) fractures. Cemented stem fixation (odds ratio (OR) 2.66 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.42 to 4.99); p = 0.002) and B2/B3 fracture type (OR 7.56 (95% CI 4.14 to 13.78); p < 0.001) were predictors of operative management. The median length of stay was 15 days (IQR 9 to 23), 12-month reoperation rate was 5.6% (n = 30), and 30-day readmission rate was 8.4% (n = 45). The 30-day and 12-month mortality rates were 5.2% (n = 28) and 21.0% (n = 113). Nonoperative treatment, older age, male sex, admission from residential or nursing care, and sustaining the PPF around a revision prosthesis were significant predictors of an increased 12-month mortality. Conclusion. Femoral hip PPFs have mortality, reoperation, and readmission rates comparable with hip fracture patients. However, they have a longer wait for surgery, and surgical treatment is more complex. There is a need to create a national framework for data collection for this heterogeneous group of patients in order to understand the outcomes of different approaches to treatment. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(8):997–1008


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 95-B, Issue 6 | Pages 815 - 819
1 Jun 2013
Yadav V Khare GN Singh S Kumaraswamy V Sharma N Rai AK Ramaswamy AG Sharma H

Both conservative and operative forms of treatment have been recommended for patients with a ‘floating shoulder’. We compared the results of conservative and operative treatment in 25 patients with this injury and investigated the use of the glenopolar angle (GPA) as an indicator of the functional outcome. A total of 13 patients (ten male and three female; mean age 32.5 years (24.7 to 40.4)) were treated conservatively and 12 patients (ten male and two female; mean age 33.67 years (24.6 to 42.7)) were treated operatively by fixation of the clavicular fracture alone. Outcome was assessed using the Herscovici score, which was also related to changes in the GPA at one year post-operatively. The mean Herscovici score was significantly better three months and two years after the injury in the operative group (p < 0.001 and p = 0.003, respectively). There was a negative correlation between the change in GPA and the Herscovici score at two years follow-up in both the conservative and operative groups, but neither were statistically significant (r = -0.295 and r = -0.19, respectively). There was a significant difference between the pre- and post-operative GPA in the operative group (p = 0.017). When compared with conservative treatment, fixation of the clavicle alone gives better results in the treatment of patients with a floating shoulder. The GPA changes significantly with fixation of clavicle alone but there is no significant correlation between the pre-injury GPA and the final clinical outcome in these patients. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2013;95-B:815–19


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 97-B, Issue 8 | Pages 1132 - 1138
1 Aug 2015
Aitken SA Jenkins PJ Rymaszewski L

The best method of managing a fracture of the distal humerus in a frail low-demand patient with osteoporotic bone remains controversial. Total elbow arthroplasty (TEA) has been recommended for patients in whom open reduction and internal fixation (ORIF) is not possible. Conservative methods of treatment, including the ‘bag of bones’ technique (acceptance of displacement of the bony fragments and early mobilisation), are now rarely considered as they are believed to give a poor functional result. We reviewed 40 elderly and low-demand patients (aged 50 to 93 years, 72% women) with a fracture of the distal humerus who had been treated conservatively at our hospital between March 2008 and December 2013, and assessed their short- and medium-term functional outcome. . In the short-term, the mean Broberg and Morrey score improved from 42 points (poor; 23 to 80) at six weeks after injury to 67 points (fair; 40 to 88) by three months. . In the medium-term, surviving patients (n = 20) had a mean Oxford elbow score of 30 points (7 to 48) at four years and a mean Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand score of 38 points (0 to 75): 95% reported a functional range of elbow flexion. The cumulative rate of fracture union at one year was 53%. The mortality at five years approached 40%. . Conservative management of a fracture of the distal humerus in a low-demand patient only gives a modest functional result, but avoids the substantial surgical risks associated with primary ORIF or TEA. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2015;97-B:1132–8


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 102-B, Issue 2 | Pages 155 - 161
1 Feb 2020
McMahon SE Diamond OJ Cusick LA

Aims. Complex displaced osteoporotic acetabular fractures in the elderly are associated with high levels of morbidity and mortality. Surgical options include either open reduction and internal fixation alone, or combined with total hip arthroplasty (THA). There remains a cohort of severely comorbid patients who are deemed unfit for extensive surgical reconstruction and are treated conservatively. We describe the results of a coned hemipelvis reconstruction and THA inserted via a posterior approach to the hip as the primary treatment for this severely high-risk cohort. Methods. We have prospectively monitored a series of 22 cases (21 patients) with a mean follow-up of 32 months (13 to 59). Results. The mean patient age was 79 years (67 to 87), and the mean ASA score was 3.3 (3 to 5). Three patients had high-energy injuries and 18 had low-energy injuries. All cases were associated fractures (Letournel classification: anterior column posterior hemitransverse, n = 13; associated both column, n = 6; transverse posterior wall, n = 3) with medialization of the femoral head. Mean operative time was 93 minutes (61 to 135). There have been no revisions to date. Of the 21 patients, 20 were full weight-bearing on day 1 postoperatively. Mean length of hospital stay was 12 days (5 to 27). Preoperative mobility status was maintained in 13 patients. At one year, mean Merle d’Aubigné score was 13.1 (10 to 18), mean Oxford Hip Score was 38.5 (24 to 44), mean EuroQol five-dimension five-level (EQ-5D-5L) health score was 68 (30 to 92), and mean EQ-5D-5L index score was 0.68 (0.335 to 0.837); data from 14 patients. Mortality was 9.5% (2/21) at one year. There have been no thromboembolic events, deep infections, or revisions. Conclusion. The coned hemipelvis reconstruction bypasses the fracture, creating an immediately stable construct that allows immediate full weight-bearing. The posterior approach minimizes the operative time and physiological insult in this vulnerable patient population. Early results suggest this to be a safe addition to current surgical options, targeted at the most medically frail elderly patient with a complex displaced acetabular fracture. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(2):155–161


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 5, Issue 2 | Pages 117 - 122
9 Feb 2024
Chaturvedi A Russell H Farrugia M Roger M Putti A Jenkins PJ Feltbower S

Aims

Occult (clinical) injuries represent 15% of all scaphoid fractures, posing significant challenges to the clinician. MRI has been suggested as the gold standard for diagnosis, but remains expensive, time-consuming, and is in high demand. Conventional management with immobilization and serial radiography typically results in multiple follow-up attendances to clinic, radiation exposure, and delays return to work. Suboptimal management can result in significant disability and, frequently, litigation.

Methods

We present a service evaluation report following the introduction of a quality-improvement themed, streamlined, clinical scaphoid pathway. Patients are offered a removable wrist splint with verbal and written instructions to remove it two weeks following injury, for self-assessment. The persistence of pain is the patient’s guide to ‘opt-in’ and to self-refer for a follow-up appointment with a senior emergency physician. On confirmation of ongoing signs of clinical scaphoid injury, an urgent outpatient ‘fast’-wrist protocol MRI scan is ordered, with instructions to maintain wrist immobilization. Patients with positive scan results are referred for specialist orthopaedic assessment via a virtual fracture clinic.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 106-B, Issue 1 | Pages 77 - 85
1 Jan 2024
Foster AL Warren J Vallmuur K Jaiprakash A Crawford R Tetsworth K Schuetz MA

Aims

The aim of this study was to perform the first population-based description of the epidemiological and health economic burden of fracture-related infection (FRI).

Methods

This is a retrospective cohort study of operatively managed orthopaedic trauma patients from 1 January 2007 to 31 December 2016, performed in Queensland, Australia. Record linkage was used to develop a person-centric, population-based dataset incorporating routinely collected administrative, clinical, and health economic information. The FRI group consisted of patients with International Classification of Disease 10th Revision diagnosis codes for deep infection associated with an implanted device within two years following surgery, while all others were deemed not infected. Demographic and clinical variables, as well as healthcare utilization costs, were compared.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 4, Issue 9 | Pages 659 - 667
1 Sep 2023
Nasser AAHH Osman K Chauhan GS Prakash R Handford C Nandra RS Mahmood A

Aims

Periprosthetic fractures (PPFs) following hip arthroplasty are complex injuries. This study evaluates patient demographic characteristics, management, outcomes, and risk factors associated with PPF subtypes over a decade.

Methods

Using a multicentre collaborative study design, independent of registry data, we identified adults from 29 centres with PPFs around the hip between January 2010 and December 2019. Radiographs were assessed for the Unified Classification System (UCS) grade. Patient and injury characteristics, management, and outcomes were compared between UCS grades. A multinomial logistic regression was performed to estimate relative risk ratios (RRR) of variables on UCS grade.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 106-B, Issue 1 | Pages 62 - 68
1 Jan 2024
Harris E Clement N MacLullich A Farrow L

Aims

Current levels of hip fracture morbidity contribute greatly to the overall burden on health and social care services. Given the anticipated ageing of the population over the coming decade, there is potential for this burden to increase further, although the exact scale of impact has not been identified in contemporary literature. We therefore set out to predict the future incidence of hip fracture and help inform appropriate service provision to maintain an adequate standard of care.

Methods

Historical data from the Scottish Hip Fracture Audit (2017 to 2021) were used to identify monthly incidence rates. Established time series forecasting techniques (Exponential Smoothing and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) were then used to predict the annual number of hip fractures from 2022 to 2029, including adjustment for predicted changes in national population demographics. Predicted differences in service-level outcomes (length of stay and discharge destination) were analyzed, including the associated financial cost of any changes.