Aims. Heterotopic ossification (HO) is a common complication after elbow trauma and can cause severe upper limb disability. Although multiple prognostic factors have been reported to be associated with the development of post-traumatic HO, no model has yet been able to combine these predictors more succinctly to convey prognostic information and medical measures to patients. Therefore, this study aimed to identify prognostic factors leading to the formation of HO after surgery for elbow trauma, and to establish and validate a nomogram to predict the probability of HO formation in such particular injuries. Methods. This multicentre case-control study comprised 200 patients with post-traumatic elbow HO and 229 patients who had elbow trauma but without HO formation between July 2019 and December 2020. Features possibly associated with HO formation were obtained. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was used to optimize feature selection. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was applied to build the new nomogram: the Shanghai post-Traumatic Elbow Heterotopic Ossification Prediction model (STEHOP). STEHOP was validated by concordance index (C-index) and calibration plot. Internal validation was conducted using bootstrapping validation. Results. Male sex, obesity, open wound, dislocations, late definitive surgical treatment, and lack of use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs were identified as adverse predictors and incorporated to construct the STEHOP model. It displayed good discrimination with a C-index of 0.80 (95% confidence interval 0.75 to 0.84). A high C-index value of 0.77 could still be reached in the internal validation. The calibration plot showed good agreement between nomogram prediction and observed outcomes. Conclusion. The newly developed STEHOP model is a valid and convenient instrument to predict HO formation after surgery for elbow trauma. It could assist clinicians in counselling patients regarding treatment expectations and therapeutic choices. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(8):963–971

Aims

The primary aim of this study was to address the hypothesis that fracture morphology might be more important than posterior malleolar fragment size in rotational type posterior malleolar ankle fractures (PMAFs). The secondary aim was to identify clinically important predictors of outcome for each respective PMAF-type, to challenge the current dogma that surgical decision-making should be based on fragment size.

Aims

Fracture clinics are often characterised by the referral of large numbers of unselected patients with minor injuries not requiring investigation or intervention, long waiting times and recurrent unnecessary reviews. Our experience had been of an unsustainable system and we implemented a ‘Trauma Triage Clinic’ (TTC) in order to rationalise and regulate access to our fracture service. The British Orthopaedic Association’s guidelines have required a prospective evaluation of this change of practice, and we report our experience and results.

A total of 14 women and seven men with a mean age of 43 years (18 to 68) who sustained a Mason type IV fracture of the elbow, without an additional type II or III coronoid fracture, were evaluated after a mean of 21 years (14 to 46). Primary treatment included closed elbow reduction followed by immobilisation in a plaster in all cases, with an additional excision of the radial head in 11, partial resection in two and suturing of the annular ligament in two. Delayed radial head excision was performed in two patients and an ulnar nerve transposition in one. The uninjured elbows served as controls. Nine patients had no symptoms, 11 reported slight impairment, and one severe impairment of the elbow. Elbow flexion was impaired by a mean of 3° (sd 4) and extension by a mean of 9° (sd 4) (p < 0.01). None experienced chronic elbow instability or recurrent dislocation. There were more degenerative changes in the formerly injured elbows, but none had developed a reduction in joint space.

We conclude that most patients with a Mason type IV fracture of the elbow report a good long-term outcome.