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Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 4, Issue 9 | Pages 704 - 712
14 Sep 2023
Mercier MR Koucheki R Lex JR Khoshbin A Park SS Daniels TR Halai MM

Aims. This study aimed to investigate the risk of postoperative complications in COVID-19-positive patients undergoing common orthopaedic procedures. Methods. Using the National Surgical Quality Improvement Programme (NSQIP) database, patients who underwent common orthopaedic surgery procedures from 1 January to 31 December 2021 were extracted. Patient preoperative COVID-19 status, demographics, comorbidities, type of surgery, and postoperative complications were analyzed. Propensity score matching was conducted between COVID-19-positive and -negative patients. Multivariable regression was then performed to identify both patient and provider risk factors independently associated with the occurrence of 30-day postoperative adverse events. Results. Of 194,121 included patients, 740 (0.38%) were identified to be COVID-19-positive. Comparison of comorbidities demonstrated that COVID-19-positive patients had higher rates of diabetes, heart failure, and pulmonary disease. After propensity matching and controlling for all preoperative variables, multivariable analysis found that COVID-19-positive patients were at increased risk of several postoperative complications, including: any adverse event, major adverse event, minor adverse event, death, venous thromboembolism, and pneumonia. COVID-19-positive patients undergoing hip/knee arthroplasty and trauma surgery were at increased risk of 30-day adverse events. Conclusion. COVID-19-positive patients undergoing orthopaedic surgery had increased odds of many 30-day postoperative complications, with hip/knee arthroplasty and trauma surgery being the most high-risk procedures. These data reinforce prior literature demonstrating increased risk of venous thromboembolic events in the acute postoperative period. Clinicians caring for patients undergoing orthopaedic procedures should be mindful of these increased risks, and attempt to improve patient care during the ongoing global pandemic. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(9):704–712


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 4, Issue 3 | Pages 146 - 157
7 Mar 2023
Camilleri-Brennan J James S McDaid C Adamson J Jones K O'Carroll G Akhter Z Eltayeb M Sharma H

Aims. Chronic osteomyelitis (COM) of the lower limb in adults can be surgically managed by either limb reconstruction or amputation. This scoping review aims to map the outcomes used in studies surgically managing COM in order to aid future development of a core outcome set. Methods. A total of 11 databases were searched. A subset of studies published between 1 October 2020 and 1 January 2011 from a larger review mapping research on limb reconstruction and limb amputation for the management of lower limb COM were eligible. All outcomes were extracted and recorded verbatim. Outcomes were grouped and categorized as per the revised Williamson and Clarke taxonomy. Results. A total of 3,303 records were screened, of which 99 studies were included. Most studies were case series (77/99; 78%) and assessed one method of reconstruction (68/99; 69%). A total of 511 outcomes were reported, which were grouped into 58 distinct outcomes. Overall, 143/511 of all outcomes (28%) were provided with a clear, in-text definition, and 231 outcomes (45%) had details reported of how and when they were measured. The most commonly reported outcome was ‘recurrence of osteomyelitis’ (62; 12%). The single-most patient-reported outcome measure was ‘pain’. Conclusion. This study has highlighted significant inconsistencies in the defining, reporting, and measuring of outcomes across studies investigating surgical management for chronic osteomyelitis of the lower limb in adults. Future studies should clearly report complete details of how outcomes are defined and measured, including timing. The development of a standardized core outcome set would be of significant benefit in order to allow evidence synthesis and comparison across studies. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(3):146–157


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 4, Issue 2 | Pages 96 - 103
14 Feb 2023
Knowlson CN Brealey S Keding A Torgerson D Rangan A

Aims. Early large treatment effects can arise in small studies, which lessen as more data accumulate. This study aimed to retrospectively examine whether early treatment effects occurred for two multicentre orthopaedic randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and explore biases related to this. Methods. Included RCTs were ProFHER (PROximal Fracture of the Humerus: Evaluation by Randomisation), a two-arm study of surgery versus non-surgical treatment for proximal humerus fractures, and UK FROST (United Kingdom Frozen Shoulder Trial), a three-arm study of two surgical and one non-surgical treatment for frozen shoulder. To determine whether early treatment effects were present, the primary outcome of Oxford Shoulder Score (OSS) was compared on forest plots for: the chief investigator’s (CI) site to the remaining sites, the first five sites opened to the other sites, and patients grouped in quintiles by randomization date. Potential for bias was assessed by comparing mean age and proportion of patients with indicators of poor outcome between included and excluded/non-consenting participants. Results. No bias in treatment effect was observed overall for the CI site, or the first five sites, compared with the remaining sites in either trial. An early treatment effect on the OSS was observed for the first quintile of participants recruited to ProFHER only (clinically relevant difference of seven points). Selection bias for age was observed in the ProFHER trial only, with slightly younger patients being recruited into the study. Both trials showed some selection bias for markers of poor prognosis, although these did not appear to change over time. Conclusion. No bias in treatment effects overall were found at the CI or early sites set-up. An early treatment effect was found in one of the two trials, which was likely a chance effect as this did not continue during the study. Selection bias was observed in both RCTs, however this was minimal and did not impact on outcome. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(2):96–103


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 3, Issue 8 | Pages 628 - 640
1 Aug 2022
Phoon KM Afzal I Sochart DH Asopa V Gikas P Kader D

Aims. In the UK, the NHS generates an estimated 25 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents (4% to 5% of the nation’s total carbon emissions) and produces over 500,000 tonnes of waste annually. There is limited evidence demonstrating the principles of sustainability and its benefits within orthopaedic surgery. The primary aim of this study was to analyze the environmental impact of orthopaedic surgery and the environmentally sustainable initiatives undertaken to address this. The secondary aim of this study was to describe the barriers to making sustainable changes within orthopaedic surgery. Methods. A literature search was performed according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines through EMBASE, Medline, and PubMed libraries using two domains of terms: “orthopaedic surgery” and “environmental sustainability”. Results. A total of 13 studies were included in the final analysis. All papers studied the environmental impact of orthopaedic surgery in one of three areas: waste management, resource consumption, and carbon emissions. Waste segregation was a prevalent issue and described by nine studies, with up to 74.4% of hazardous waste being generated. Of this, six studies reported recycling waste and up to 43.9% of waste per procedure was recyclable. Large joint arthroplasties generated the highest amount of recyclable waste per procedure. Three studies investigated carbon emissions from intraoperative consumables, sterilization methods, and through the use of telemedicine. One study investigated water wastage and demonstrated that simple changes to practice can reduce water consumption by up to 63%. The two most common barriers to implementing environmentally sustainable changes identified across the studies was a lack of appropriate infrastructure and lack of education and training. Conclusion. Environmental sustainability in orthopaedic surgery is a growing area with a wide potential for meaningful change. Further research to cumulatively study the carbon footprint of orthopaedic surgery and the wider impact of environmentally sustainable changes is necessary. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(8):628–640


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 2, Issue 2 | Pages 119 - 124
1 Feb 2021
Shah RF Gwilym SE Lamb S Williams M Ring D Jayakumar P

Aims. The increase in prescription opioid misuse and dependence is now a public health crisis in the UK. It is recognized as a whole-person problem that involves both the medical and the psychosocial needs of patients. Analyzing aspects of pathophysiology, emotional health, and social wellbeing associated with persistent opioid use after injury may inform safe and effective alleviation of pain while minimizing risk of misuse or dependence. Our objectives were to investigate patient factors associated with opioid use two to four weeks and six to nine months after an upper limb fracture. Methods. A total of 734 patients recovering from an isolated upper limb fracture were recruited in this study. Opioid prescription was documented retrospectively for the period preceding the injury, and prospectively at the two- to four-week post-injury visit and six- to nine-month post-injury visit. Bivariate and multivariate analysis sought factors associated with opioid prescription from demographics, injury-specific data, Patient Reported Outcome Measurement Instrumentation System (PROMIS), Depression computer adaptive test (CAT), PROMIS Anxiety CAT, PROMIS Instrumental Support CAT, the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS), the Pain Self-efficacy Questionnaire (PSEQ-2), Tampa Scale for Kinesiophobia (TSK-11), and measures that investigate levels of social support. Results. A new prescription of opioids two to four weeks after injury was independently associated with less social support (odds ratio (OR) 0.26, p < 0.001), less instrumental support (OR 0.91, p < 0.001), and greater symptoms of anxiety (OR 1.1, p < 0.001). A new prescription of opioids six to nine months after injury was independently associated with less instrumental support (OR 0.9, p < 0.001) and greater symptoms of anxiety (OR 1.1, p < 0.001). Conclusion. This study demonstrates that potentially modifiable psychosocial factors are associated with increased acute and chronic opioid prescriptions following upper limb fracture. Surgeons prescribing opioids for upper limb fractures should be made aware of the screening and management of emotional and social health. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(2):119–124


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 6, Issue 1 | Pages 103 - 108
21 Jan 2025
Jabbal M Cherry J Eastwood D Scott CEH Walmsley P Baird E

Aims

Trauma & Orthopaedic (T&O) surgery has come under scrutiny for lagging behind other medical specialties in promoting gender and cultural equity and diversity within their workforce. The proportions of female, ethnic minority, and sexual and gender minority individuals within orthopaedic membership bodies are disproportionate to the populations they serve. The aim of this study is to report the findings of a national workforce survey of demographics and working patterns within T&O in Scotland.

Methods

A questionnaire devised by a working group was delivered by the Client Analyst and Relationship Development (CARD) group. Utilizing a secure third party ensured anonymity for all respondents. Data were recorded and analyzed by the CARD group.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 5, Issue 8 | Pages 697 - 707
22 Aug 2024
Raj S Grover S Spazzapan M Russell B Jaffry Z Malde S Vig S Fleming S

Aims

The aims of this study were to describe the demographic, socioeconomic, and educational factors associated with core surgical trainees (CSTs) who apply to and receive offers for higher surgical training (ST3) posts in Trauma & Orthopaedics (T&O).

Methods

Data collected by the UK Medical Education Database (UKMED) between 1 January 2014 and 31 December 2019 were used in this retrospective longitudinal cohort study comprising 1,960 CSTs eligible for ST3. The primary outcome measures were whether CSTs applied for a T&O ST3 post and if they were subsequently offered a post. A directed acyclic graph was used for detecting confounders and adjusting logistic regression models to calculate odds ratios (ORs), which assessed the association between the primary outcomes and relevant exposures of interest, including: age, sex, ethnicity, parental socioeconomic status (SES), domiciliary status, category of medical school, Situational Judgement Test (SJT) scores at medical school, and success in postgraduate examinations. This study followed STROBE guidelines.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 5, Issue 5 | Pages 419 - 425
20 May 2024
Gardner EC Cheng R Moran J Summer LC Emsbo CB Gallagher RG Gong J Fishman FG

Aims

The purpose of this survey study was to examine the demographic and lifestyle factors of women currently in orthopaedic surgery.

Methods

An electronic survey was conducted of practising female orthopaedic surgeons based in the USA through both the Ruth Jackson Society and the online Facebook group “Women of Orthopaedics”.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 6, Issue 2 | Pages 206 - 214
18 Feb 2025
Iken AR Gademan MGJ Snoeker BAM Vliet Vlieland TPM Poolman RW

Aims

To develop a multidisciplinary health research agenda (HRA) utilizing expertise from various disciplines to identify and prioritize evidence uncertainties in orthopaedics, thereby reducing research waste.

Methods

We employed a novel, structured framework to develop a HRA. We started by systematically collecting all evidence uncertainties from stakeholders with an interest in orthopaedic care, categorizing them into 13 sub-themes defined by the Dutch Orthopaedic Association (NOV). Subsequently, a modified two-phased Delphi study (two rounds per phase), adhering to the Conducting and REporting DElphi Studies (CREDES) guideline, was conducted. In Phase 1, board members assessed the collected evidence uncertainties on a three-point Likert scale to confirm knowledge gaps. In Phase 2, diverse stakeholders, including orthopaedic surgeons, rated the confirmed knowledge gaps on a seven-point Likert scale. Panel members rated one self-selected sub-theme and two randomly assigned sub-themes. The results from Phase 2 were ranked based on the overall average score for each uncertainty. Finally, a focus group discussion with patient associations’ representatives identified their top-ranked uncertainty from a predefined consensus process, leading to the final HRA. An advisory board, the Federation of Medical Specialists, and the NOV research coordinator oversaw the process.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 5, Issue 11 | Pages 953 - 961
1 Nov 2024
Mew LE Heaslip V Immins T Ramasamy A Wainwright TW

Aims

The evidence base within trauma and orthopaedics has traditionally favoured quantitative research methodologies. Qualitative research can provide unique insights which illuminate patient experiences and perceptions of care. Qualitative methods reveal the subjective narratives of patients that are not captured by quantitative data, providing a more comprehensive understanding of patient-centred care. The aim of this study is to quantify the level of qualitative research within the orthopaedic literature.

Methods

A bibliometric search of journals’ online archives and multiple databases was undertaken in March 2024, to identify articles using qualitative research methods in the top 12 trauma and orthopaedic journals based on the 2023 impact factor and SCImago rating. The bibliometric search was conducted and reported in accordance with the preliminary guideline for reporting bibliometric reviews of the biomedical literature (BIBLIO).


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 5, Issue 8 | Pages 637 - 643
6 Aug 2024
Abelleyra Lastoria DA Casey L Beni R Papanastasiou AV Kamyab AA Devetzis K Scott CEH Hing CB

Aims

Our primary aim was to establish the proportion of female orthopaedic consultants who perform arthroplasty via cases submitted to the National Joint Registry (NJR), which covers England, Wales, Northern Ireland, the Isle of Man, and Guernsey. Secondary aims included comparing time since specialist registration, private practice participation, and number of hospitals worked in between male and female surgeons.

Methods

Publicly available data from the NJR was extracted on the types of arthroplasty performed by each surgeon, and the number of procedures of each type undertaken. Each surgeon was cross-referenced with the General Medical Council (GMC) website, using GMC number to extract surgeon demographic data. These included sex, region of practice, and dates of full and specialist registration.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 5, Issue 12 | Pages 1072 - 1080
4 Dec 2024
Tang M Lun KK Lewin AM Harris IA

Aims

Systematic reviews of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the highest level of evidence used to inform patient care. However, it has been suggested that the quality of randomization in RCTs in orthopaedic surgery may be low. This study aims to describe the quality of randomization in trials included in systematic reviews in orthopaedic surgery.

Methods

Systematic reviews of RCTs testing orthopaedic procedures published in 2022 were extracted from PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Library. A random sample of 100 systematic reviews was selected, and all included RCTs were retrieved. To be eligible for inclusion, systematic reviews must have tested an orthopaedic procedure as the primary intervention, included at least one study identified as a RCT, been published in 2022 in English, and included human clinical trials. The Cochrane Risk of Bias-2 Tool was used to assess random sequence generation as ‘adequate’, ‘inadequate’, or ‘no information’; we then calculated the proportion of trials in each category. We also collected data to test the association between these categories and characteristics of the RCTs and systematic reviews.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 4, Issue 7 | Pages 539 - 550
21 Jul 2023
Banducci E Al Muderis M Lu W Bested SR

Aims

Safety concerns surrounding osseointegration are a significant barrier to replacing socket prosthesis as the standard of care following limb amputation. While implanted osseointegrated prostheses traditionally occur in two stages, a one-stage approach has emerged. Currently, there is no existing comparison of the outcomes of these different approaches. To address safety concerns, this study sought to determine whether a one-stage osseointegration procedure is associated with fewer adverse events than the two-staged approach.

Methods

A comprehensive electronic search and quantitative data analysis from eligible studies were performed. Inclusion criteria were adults with a limb amputation managed with a one- or two-stage osseointegration procedure with follow-up reporting of complications.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 4, Issue 4 | Pages 250 - 261
7 Apr 2023
Sharma VJ Adegoke JA Afara IO Stok K Poon E Gordon CL Wood BR Raman J

Aims

Disorders of bone integrity carry a high global disease burden, frequently requiring intervention, but there is a paucity of methods capable of noninvasive real-time assessment. Here we show that miniaturized handheld near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) scans, operated via a smartphone, can assess structural human bone properties in under three seconds.

Methods

A hand-held NIR spectrometer was used to scan bone samples from 20 patients and predict: bone volume fraction (BV/TV); and trabecular (Tb) and cortical (Ct) thickness (Th), porosity (Po), and spacing (Sp).


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 1, Issue 9 | Pages 549 - 555
11 Sep 2020
Sonntag J Landale K Brorson S Harris IA

Aims. The aim of this study was to investigate surgeons’ reported change of treatment preference in response to the results and conclusion from a randomized contolled trial (RCT) and to study patterns of change between subspecialties and nationalities. Methods. Two questionnaires were developed through the Delphi process for this cross-sectional survey of surgical preference. The first questionnaire was sent out before the publication of a RCT and the second questionnaire was sent out after publication. The RCT investigated repair or non-repair of the pronator quadratus (PQ) muscle during volar locked plating of distal radial fractures (DRFs). Overall, 380 orthopaedic surgeons were invited to participate in the first questionnaire, of whom 115 replied. One hundred surgeons were invited to participate in the second questionnaire. The primary outcome was the proportion of surgeons for whom a treatment change was warranted, who then reported a change of treatment preference following the RCT. Secondary outcomes included the reasons for repair or non-repair, reasons for and against following the RCT results, and difference of preferred treatment of the PQ muscle between surgeons of different nationalities, qualifications, years of training, and number of procedures performed per year. Results. Of the 100 surgeons invited for the second questionnaire, 74 replied. For the primary outcome, six of 32 surgeons (19%), who usually repaired the PQ muscle and therefore a change of treatment preference was warranted, reported a change of treatment preference based on the RCT publication. Of the secondary outcomes, restoring anatomy was the most common response for repairing the PQ muscle. Conclusion. The majority of the orthopaedic surgeons, where a change of treatment preference was warranted based on the results and conclusion of a RCT, did not report willingness to change their treatment preference. Cite this article: Bone Joint Open 2020;1-9:549–555


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 1, Issue 9 | Pages 605 - 611
28 Sep 2020
McKean D Chung SL Fairhead R Bannister O Magliano M Papanikitas J Wong N Hughes R

Aims. To describe the incidence of adverse clinical outcomes related to COVID-19 infection following corticosteroid injections (CSI) during the COVID-19 pandemic. To describe the incidence of positive SARS-CoV-2 reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing, positive SARS-COV2 IgG antibody testing or positive imaging findings following CSI at our institution during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods. A retrospective observational study was undertaken of consecutive patients who had CSI in our local hospitals between 1 February and 30June 2020. Electronic patient medical records (EPR) and radiology information system (RIS) database were reviewed. SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR testing, SARS-COV2 IgG antibody testing, radiological investigations, patient management, and clinical outcomes were recorded. Lung findings were categorized according to the British Society of Thoracic Imaging (BSTI) guidelines. Reference was made to the incidence of lab-confirmed COVID-19 cases in our region. Results. Overall, 1,656 lab-confirmed COVID-19 cases were identified in our upper tier local authority (UTLA), a rate of 306.6 per 100,000, as of 30June 2020. A total of 504 CSI injections were performed on 443 patients between 1 February and 30June 2020. A total of 11 RT-PCR tests were performed on nine patients (2% of those who had CSI), all of which were negative for SARS-CoV-2 RNA, and five patients (1.1%) received an SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibody test, of which 2 (0.5%) were positive consistent with prior COVID-19 infection, however both patients were asymptomatic. Seven patients (1.6%) had radiological investigations for respiratory symptoms. One patient with indeterminate ground glass change was identified. Conclusion. The incidence of positive COVID-19 infection following corticosteroid injections was very low in our cohort and no adverse clinical outcomes related to COVID-19 infection following CSI were identified. Our findings are consistent with CSI likely being low risk during the COVID-19 pandemic. The results of this small observational study are supportive of the current multi-society guidelines regarding the judicious use of CSI. Cite this article: Bone Joint Open 2020;1-9:605–611


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 3, Issue 11 | Pages 907 - 912
23 Nov 2022
Hurley RJ McCabe FJ Turley L Maguire D Lucey J Hurson CJ

Aims

The use of fluoroscopy in orthopaedic surgery creates risk of radiation exposure to surgeons. Appropriate personal protective equipment (PPE) can help mitigate this. The primary aim of this study was to assess if current radiation protection in orthopaedic trauma is safe. The secondary aims were to describe normative data of radiation exposure during common orthopaedic procedures, evaluate ways to improve any deficits in protection, and validate the use of electronic personal dosimeters (EPDs) in assessing radiation dose in orthopaedic surgery.

Methods

Radiation exposure to surgeons during common orthopaedic trauma operations was prospectively assessed using EPDs and thermoluminescent dosimeters (TLDs). Normative data for each operation type were calculated and compared to recommended guidelines.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 1, Issue 3 | Pages 41 - 46
18 Mar 2020
Perry DC Arch B Appelbe D Francis P Spowart C Knight M

Introduction. There is widespread variation in the management of rare orthopaedic disease, in a large part owing to uncertainty. No individual surgeon or hospital is typically equipped to amass sufficient numbers of cases to draw robust conclusions from the information available to them. The programme of research will establish the British Orthopaedic Surgery Surveillance (BOSS) Study; a nationwide reporting structure for rare disease in orthopaedic surgery. Methods. The BOSS Study is a series of nationwide observational cohort studies of pre-specified orthopaedic disease. All relevant hospitals treating the disease are invited to contribute anonymised case details. Data will be collected digitally through REDCap, with an additional bespoke software solution used to regularly confirm case ascertainment, prompt follow-up reminders and identify potential missing cases from external sources of information (i.e. national administrative data). With their consent, patients will be invited to enrich the data collected by supplementing anonymised case data with patient reported outcomes. The study will primarily seek to calculate the incidence of the rare diseases under investigation, with 95% confidence intervals. Descriptive statistics will be used to describe the case mix, treatment variations and outcomes. Inferential statistical analysis may be used to analyze associations between presentation factors and outcomes. Types of analyses will be contingent on the disease under investigation. Discussion. This study builds upon other national rare disease supporting structures, particularly those in obstetrics and paediatric surgery. It is particularly focused on addressing the evidence base for quality and safety of surgery, and the design is influenced by the specifications of the IDEAL collaboration for the development of surgical research


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 3, Issue 8 | Pages 607 - 610
1 Aug 2022
Wellington IJ Hawthorne BC Dorsey C Connors JP Mazzocca AD Solovyova O

Aims

Tissue adhesives (TAs) are a commonly used adjunct to traditional surgical wound closures. However, TAs must be allowed to dry before application of a surgical dressing, increasing operating time and reducing intraoperative efficiency. The goal of this study is to identify a practical method for decreasing the curing time for TAs.

Methods

Six techniques were tested to determine which one resulted in the quickest drying time for 2-octyle cyanoacrylate (Dermabond) skin adhesive. These were nothing (control), fanning with a hand (Fanning), covering with a hand (Covering), bringing operating room lights close (OR Lights), ultraviolet lights (UV Light), or prewarming the TA applicator in a hot water bath (Hot Water Bath). Equal amounts of TA were applied to a reproducible plexiglass surface and allowed to dry while undergoing one of the six techniques. The time to complete dryness was recorded for ten specimens for each of the six techniques.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 2, Issue 2 | Pages 103 - 110
1 Feb 2021
Oussedik S MacIntyre S Gray J McMeekin P Clement ND Deehan DJ

Aims. The primary aim is to estimate the current and potential number of patients on NHS England orthopaedic elective waiting lists by November 2020. The secondary aims are to model recovery strategies; review the deficit of hip and knee arthroplasty from National Joint Registry (NJR) data; and assess the cost of returning to pre-COVID-19 waiting list numbers. Methods. A model of referral, waiting list, and eventual surgery was created and calibrated using historical data from NHS England (April 2017 to March 2020) and was used to investigate the possible consequences of unmet demand resulting from fewer patients entering the treatment pathway and recovery strategies. NJR data were used to estimate the deficit of hip and knee arthroplasty by August 2020 and NHS tariff costs were used to calculate the financial burden. Results. By November 2020, the elective waiting list in England is predicted to be between 885,286 and 1,028,733. If reduced hospital capacity is factored into the model, returning to full capacity by November, the waiting list could be as large as 1.4 million. With a 30% increase in productivity, it would take 20 months if there was no hidden burden of unreferred patients, and 48 months if there was a hidden burden, to return to pre-COVID-19 waiting list numbers. By August 2020, the estimated deficits of hip and knee arthroplasties from NJR data were 18,298 (44.8%) and 16,567 (38.6%), respectively, compared to the same time period in 2019. The cost to clear this black log would be £198,811,335. Conclusion. There will be up to 1.4 million patients on elective orthopaedic waiting lists in England by November 2020, approximate three-times the pre-COVID-19 average. There are various strategies for recovery to return to pre-COVID-19 waiting list numbers reliant on increasing capacity, but these have substantial cost implications. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(2):103–110