Aims. Machine-learning (ML) prediction models in orthopaedic trauma hold great promise in assisting clinicians in various tasks, such as personalized risk stratification. However, an overview of current applications and critical appraisal to peer-reviewed guidelines is lacking. The objectives of this study are to 1) provide an overview of current ML prediction models in orthopaedic trauma; 2) evaluate the completeness of reporting following the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) statement; and 3) assess the risk of bias following the Prediction model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) tool. Methods. A systematic search screening 3,252 studies identified 45 ML-based prediction models in orthopaedic trauma up to January 2023. The TRIPOD statement assessed transparent reporting and the PROBAST tool the risk of bias. Results. A total of 40 studies reported on training and internal validation; four studies performed both development and external validation, and one study performed only external validation. The most commonly reported outcomes were mortality (33%, 15/45) and length of hospital stay (9%, 4/45), and the majority of prediction models were developed in the hip fracture population (60%, 27/45). The overall median completeness for the TRIPOD statement was 62% (interquartile range 30 to 81%). The overall risk of bias in the PROBAST tool was low in 24% (11/45), high in 69% (31/45), and unclear in 7% (3/45) of the studies. High risk of bias was mainly due to analysis domain concerns including small datasets with low number of outcomes, complete-case analysis in case of missing data, and no reporting of performance measures. Conclusion. The results of this study showed that despite a myriad of potential clinically useful applications, a substantial part of ML studies in orthopaedic trauma lack transparent reporting, and are at high risk of bias. These problems must be resolved by following established guidelines to instil confidence in ML models among patients and clinicians. Otherwise, there will remain a sizeable gap between the development of ML prediction models and their clinical application in our day-to-day orthopaedic trauma practice. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(1):9–19

Aims. The number of convolutional neural networks (CNN) available for fracture detection and classification is rapidly increasing. External validation of a CNN on a temporally separate (separated by time) or geographically separate (separated by location) dataset is crucial to assess generalizability of the CNN before application to clinical practice in other institutions. We aimed to answer the following questions: are current CNNs for fracture recognition externally valid?; which methods are applied for external validation (EV)?; and, what are reported performances of the EV sets compared to the internal validation (IV) sets of these CNNs?. Methods. The PubMed and Embase databases were systematically searched from January 2010 to October 2020 according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement. The type of EV, characteristics of the external dataset, and diagnostic performance characteristics on the IV and EV datasets were collected and compared. Quality assessment was conducted using a seven-item checklist based on a modified Methodologic Index for NOn-Randomized Studies instrument (MINORS). Results. Out of 1,349 studies, 36 reported development of a CNN for fracture detection and/or classification. Of these, only four (11%) reported a form of EV. One study used temporal EV, one conducted both temporal and geographical EV, and two used geographical EV. When comparing the CNN’s performance on the IV set versus the EV set, the following were found: AUCs of 0.967 (IV) versus 0.975 (EV), 0.976 (IV) versus 0.985 to 0.992 (EV), 0.93 to 0.96 (IV) versus 0.80 to 0.89 (EV), and F1-scores of 0.856 to 0.863 (IV) versus 0.757 to 0.840 (EV). Conclusion. The number of externally validated CNNs in orthopaedic trauma for fracture recognition is still scarce. This greatly limits the potential for transfer of these CNNs from the developing institute to another hospital to achieve similar diagnostic performance. We recommend the use of geographical EV and statements such as the Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials–Artificial Intelligence (CONSORT-AI), the Standard Protocol Items: Recommendations for Interventional Trials–Artificial Intelligence (SPIRIT-AI) and the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis–Machine Learning (TRIPOD-ML) to critically appraise performance of CNNs and improve methodological rigor, quality of future models, and facilitate eventual implementation in clinical practice. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(10):879–885

Aims. Surgical limb sparing for knee-bearing paediatric bone sarcoma is considered to have a clinically significant influence on postoperative function due to complications and leg-length discrepancies. However, researchers have not fully evaluated the long-term postoperative functional outcomes. Therefore, in this study, we aimed to elucidate the risk factors and long-term functional prognosis associated with paediatric limb-sparing surgery. Methods. We reviewed 40 patients aged under 14 years who underwent limb-sparing surgery for knee bone sarcoma (15 cases in the proximal tibia and 25 in the distal femur) between January 2000 and December 2013, and were followed up for a minimum of five years. A total of 35 patients underwent reconstruction using artificial materials, and five underwent biological reconstruction. We evaluated the patients’ postoperative complications, survival rate of reconstruction material, and limb, limb function, and leg-length discrepancy at the final follow-up, as well as the risk factors for each. Results. Complications were observed in 55% (22/40) of patients. The limb survival and reconstruction material rates at five and ten years were 95% and 91%, and 88% and 66%, respectively. Infection was the only risk factor in both survivals (p < 0.001, p = 0.019). In the 35 patients with limb preservation, the median International Society of Limb Salvage (ISOLS) score at the final follow-up was 80 (47% to 97%). Younger age (p = 0.027) and complications (p = 0.005) were poor prognostic factors. A negative correlation was found between age and leg-length discrepancy (R = −0.426; p = 0.011). The ISOLS scores were significantly lower in patients with a leg-length discrepancy of more than 5 cm (p = 0.005). Conclusion. Young age and complications were linked to an unfavourable functional prognosis. Leg-length correction was insufficient, especially in very young children, resulting in decreased function of the affected limb. Limb-sparing surgery for these children remains a considerable challenge. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(10):868–878

Aims. Early large treatment effects can arise in small studies, which lessen as more data accumulate. This study aimed to retrospectively examine whether early treatment effects occurred for two multicentre orthopaedic randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and explore biases related to this. Methods. Included RCTs were ProFHER (PROximal Fracture of the Humerus: Evaluation by Randomisation), a two-arm study of surgery versus non-surgical treatment for proximal humerus fractures, and UK FROST (United Kingdom Frozen Shoulder Trial), a three-arm study of two surgical and one non-surgical treatment for frozen shoulder. To determine whether early treatment effects were present, the primary outcome of Oxford Shoulder Score (OSS) was compared on forest plots for: the chief investigator’s (CI) site to the remaining sites, the first five sites opened to the other sites, and patients grouped in quintiles by randomization date. Potential for bias was assessed by comparing mean age and proportion of patients with indicators of poor outcome between included and excluded/non-consenting participants. Results. No bias in treatment effect was observed overall for the CI site, or the first five sites, compared with the remaining sites in either trial. An early treatment effect on the OSS was observed for the first quintile of participants recruited to ProFHER only (clinically relevant difference of seven points). Selection bias for age was observed in the ProFHER trial only, with slightly younger patients being recruited into the study. Both trials showed some selection bias for markers of poor prognosis, although these did not appear to change over time. Conclusion. No bias in treatment effects overall were found at the CI or early sites set-up. An early treatment effect was found in one of the two trials, which was likely a chance effect as this did not continue during the study. Selection bias was observed in both RCTs, however this was minimal and did not impact on outcome. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(2):96–103

Aims. Radiotherapy is a well-known local treatment for spinal metastases. However, in the presence of postoperative systemic therapy, the efficacy of radiotherapy on local control (LC) and overall survival (OS) in patients with spinal metastases remains unknown. This study aimed to evaluate the clinical outcomes of post-surgical radiotherapy for spinal metastatic non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients, and to identify factors correlated with LC and OS. Methods. A retrospective, single-centre review was conducted of patients with spinal metastases from NSCLC who underwent surgery followed by systemic therapy at our institution from January 2018 to September 2022. Kaplan-Meier analysis and log-rank tests were used to compare the LC and OS between groups. Associated factors for LC and OS were assessed using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. Results. Overall, 123 patients with 127 spinal metastases from NSCLC who underwent decompression surgery followed by postoperative systemic therapy were included. A total of 43 lesions were treated with stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) after surgery and 84 lesions were not. Survival rate at one, two, and three years was 83.4%, 58.9%, and 48.2%, respectively, and LC rate was 87.8%, 78.8%, and 78.8%, respectively. Histological type was the only significant associated factor for both LC (p = 0.007) and OS (p < 0.001). Treatment with targeted therapy was significantly associated with longer survival (p = 0.039). The risk factors associated with worse survival were abnormal laboratory data (p = 0.021), lesions located in the thoracic spine (p = 0.047), and lumbar spine (p = 0.044). This study also revealed that postoperative radiotherapy had little effect in improving OS or LC. Conclusion. Tumour histological type was significantly associated with the prognosis in spinal NSCLC metastasis patients. In the presence of post-surgical systemic therapy, radiotherapy appeared to be less effective in improving LC, OS, or quality of life in spinal NSCLC metastasis patients. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(4):350–360

Aims. The localization of necrotic areas has been reported to impact the prognosis and treatment strategy for osteonecrosis of the femoral head (ONFH). Anteroposterior localization of the necrotic area after a femoral neck fracture (FNF) has not been properly investigated. We hypothesize that the change of the weight loading direction on the femoral head due to residual posterior tilt caused by malunited FNF may affect the location of ONFH. We investigate the relationship between the posterior tilt angle (PTA) and anteroposterior localization of osteonecrosis using lateral hip radiographs. Methods. Patients aged younger than 55 years diagnosed with ONFH after FNF were retrospectively reviewed. Overall, 65 hips (38 males and 27 females; mean age 32.6 years (SD 12.2)) met the inclusion criteria. Patients with stage 1 or 4 ONFH, as per the Association Research Circulation Osseous classification, were excluded. The ratios of anterior and posterior viable areas and necrotic areas of the femoral head to the articular surface were calculated by setting the femoral head centre as the reference point. The PTA was measured using Palm’s method. The association between the PTA and viable or necrotic areas of the femoral head was assessed using Spearman’s rank correlation analysis (median PTA 6.0° (interquartile range 3 to 11.5)). Results. We identified a negative correlation between PTA and anterior viable areas (rho −0.477; p = 0.001), and no correlation between PTA and necrotic (rho 0.229; p = 0.067) or posterior viable areas (rho 0.204; p = 0.132). Conclusion. Our results suggest that residual posterior tilt after FNF could affect the anteroposterior localization of necrosis. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(5):394–400

Aims. The aim of this study is to determine the predictors of overall survival (OS) and predictive factors of poor prognosis of conventional high-grade osteosarcoma of the limbs in a single-centre in South Africa. Methods. We performed a retrospective cross-sectional analysis to identify the prognostic factors that predict the OS of patients with histologically confirmed high-grade conventional osteosarcoma of the limbs over ten years. We employed the Cox proportional regression model and the Kaplan-Meier method for statistical analysis. Results. This study comprised 77 patients at a three-year minimum follow-up. The predictors of poor OS were: the median age of ≤ 19 years (hazard ratio (HR) 0.96; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.92 to 0.99; p = 0.021); median duration of symptoms ≥ five months (HR 0.91; 95% CI 0.83 to 0.99; p < 0.037); metastasis at diagnosis (i.e. Enneking stage III) (HR 3.33; 95% CI 1.81 to 6.00; p < 0.001); increased alkaline phosphatase (HR 3.28; 95% CI 1.33 to 8.11; p < 0.010); palliative treatment (HR 7.27; 95% CI 2.69 to 19.70); p < 0.001); and amputation (HR 3.71; 95% CI 1.12 to 12.25; p < 0.032). In contrast, definitive surgery (HR 0.11; 95% CI 0.03 to 0.38; p < 0.001) and curative treatment (HR 0.18; 95% CI 0.10 to 0.33; p < 0.001) were a protective factor. The Kaplan-Meier median survival time was 24 months, with OS of 57.1% at the three years. The projected five-year event-free survival was 10.3% and OS of 29.8% (HR 0.76; 95% CI 0.52 to 1.12; p = 0.128). Conclusion. In this series of high-grade conventional osteosarcoma of the appendicular skeleton from South Africa, 58.4% (n = 45) had detectable metastases at presentation; hence, an impoverished OS of five years was 29.8%. Large-scale future research is needed to validate our results. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(3):210–217

Aims. Delirium is associated with adverse outcomes following hip fracture, but the prevalence and significance of delirium for the prognosis and ongoing rehabilitation needs of patients admitted from home is less well studied. Here, we analyzed relationships between delirium in patients admitted from home with 1) mortality; 2) total length of hospital stay; 3) need for post-acute inpatient rehabilitation; and 4) hospital readmission within 180 days. Methods. This observational study used routine clinical data in a consecutive sample of hip fracture patients aged ≥ 50 years admitted to a single large trauma centre during the COVID-19 pandemic between 1 March 2020 and 30 November 2021. Delirium was prospectively assessed as part of routine care by the 4 A’s Test (4AT), with most assessments performed in the emergency department. Associations were determined using logistic regression adjusted for age, sex, Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation quintile, COVID-19 infection within 30 days, and American Society of Anesthesiologists grade. Results. A total of 1,821 patients were admitted, with 1,383 (mean age 79.5 years; 72.1% female) directly from home. Overall, 87 patients (4.8%) were excluded due to missing 4AT scores. Delirium prevalence in the whole cohort was 26.5% (460/1,734): 14.1% (189/1,340) in the subgroup of patients admitted from home, and 68.8% (271/394) in the remaining patients (comprising care home residents and inpatients when fracture occurred). In patients admitted from home, delirium was associated with a 20-day longer total length of stay (p < 0.001). In multivariable analyses, delirium was associated with higher mortality at 180 days (odds ratio (OR) 1.69 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.13 to 2.54); p = 0.013), requirement for post-acute inpatient rehabilitation (OR 2.80 (95% CI 1.97 to 3.96); p < 0.001), and readmission to hospital within 180 days (OR 1.79 (95% CI 1.02 to 3.15); p = 0.041). Conclusion. Delirium affects one in seven patients with a hip fracture admitted directly from home, and is associated with adverse outcomes in these patients. Delirium assessment and effective management should be a mandatory part of standard hip fracture care. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(6):447–456

Aims. The optimal management of posterior malleolar ankle fractures, a prevalent type of ankle trauma, is essential for improved prognosis. However, there remains a debate over the most effective surgical approach, particularly between screw and plate fixation methods. This study aims to investigate the differences in outcomes associated with these fixation techniques. Methods. We conducted a comprehensive review of clinical trials comparing anteroposterior (A-P) screws, posteroanterior (P-A) screws, and plate fixation. Two investigators validated the data sourced from multiple databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Web of Science). Following PRISMA guidelines, we carried out a network meta-analysis (NMA) using visual analogue scale and American Orthopaedic Foot and Ankle Score (AOFAS) as primary outcomes. Secondary outcomes included range of motion limitations, radiological outcomes, and complication rates. Results. The NMA encompassed 13 studies, consisting of four randomized trials and eight retrospective ones. According to the surface under the cumulative ranking curve-based ranking, the A-P screw was ranked highest for improvements in AOFAS and exhibited lowest in infection and peroneal nerve injury incidence. The P-A screws, on the other hand, excelled in terms of VAS score improvements. Conversely, posterior buttress plate fixation showed the least incidence of osteoarthritis grade progression, postoperative articular step-off ≥ 2 mm, nonunions, and loss of ankle dorsiflexion ≥ 5°, though it underperformed in most other clinical outcomes. Conclusion. The NMA suggests that open plating is more likely to provide better radiological outcomes, while screw fixation may have a greater potential for superior functional and pain results. Nevertheless, clinicians should still consider the fragment size and fracture pattern, weighing the advantages of rigid biomechanical fixation against the possibility of soft-tissue damage, to optimize treatment results. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(3):227–235

Aims. The proximal tibia (PT) is the anatomical site most frequently affected by primary bone tumours after the distal femur. Reconstruction of the PT remains challenging because of the poor soft-tissue cover and the need to reconstruct the extensor mechanism. Reconstructive techniques include implantation of massive endoprosthesis (megaprosthesis), osteoarticular allografts (OAs), or allograft-prosthesis composites (APCs). Methods. This was a retrospective analysis of clinical data relating to patients who underwent proximal tibial arthroplasty in our regional bone tumour centre from 2010 to 2018. Results. A total of 76 patients fulfilled the inclusion criteria and were included in the study. Mean age at surgery was 43.2 years (12 to 86 (SD 21)). The mean follow-up period was 60.1 months (5.4 to 353). In total 21 failures were identified, giving an overall failure rate of 27.6%. Prosthesis survival at five years was 75.5%, and at ten years was 59%. At last follow-up, mean knee flexion was 89.8° (SD 36°) with a mean extensor lag of 18.1° (SD 24°). In univariate analysis, factors associated with better survival of the prosthesis were a malignant or metastatic cancer diagnosis (versus benign), with a five- and ten-year survival of 78.9% and 65.7% versus 37.5% (p = 0.045), while in-hospital length of stay longer than nine days was also associated with better prognosis with five- and ten-year survival rates at 84% and 84% versus 60% and 16% (p < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, only in-hospital length of stay was associated with longer survival (hazard ratio (HR) 0.23, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.08 to 0.66). Conclusion. We have shown that proximal tibial arthroplasty with endoprosthesis is a safe and reliable method for reconstruction in patients treated for orthopaedic oncological conditions. Either modular or custom implants in this series performed well. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(9):733–740

Aims. Using tibial shaft fracture participants from a large, multicentre randomized controlled trial, we investigated if patient and surgical factors were associated with health-related quality of life (HRQoL) at one year post-surgery. Methods. The Study to Prospectively Evaluate Reamed Intramedullary Nails in Patients with Tibial Fractures (SPRINT) trial examined adults with an open or closed tibial shaft fracture who were treated with either reamed or unreamed intramedullary nails. HRQoL was assessed at hospital discharge (for pre-injury level) and at 12 months post-fracture using the Short Musculoskeletal Functional Assessment (SMFA) Dysfunction, SMFA Bother, 36-Item Short Form 36 (SF-36) Physical, and SF-36 Mental Component scores. We used multiple linear regression analysis to determine if baseline and surgical factors, as well as post-intervention procedures within one year of fracture, were associated with these HRQoL outcomes. Significance was set at p < 0.01. We hypothesize that, irrespective of the four measures used, prognosis is guided by both modifiable and non-modifiable factors and that patients do not return to their pre-injury level of function, nor HRQoL. Results. For patient and surgical factors, only pre-injury quality of life and isolated fracture showed a statistical effect on all four HRQoL outcomes, while high-energy injury mechanism, smoking, and race or ethnicity, demonstrated statistical significance for three of the four HRQoL outcomes. Patients who did not require reoperation in response to infection, the need for bone grafts, and/or the need for implant exchanges had statistically superior HRQoL outcomes than those who did require intervention within one year after initial tibial fracture nailing. Conclusion. We identified several baseline patient factors, surgical factors, and post-intervention procedures within one year after intramedullary nailing of a tibial shaft fracture that may influence a patient’s HRQoL. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(1):22–32

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To develop prediction models using machine-learning (ML) algorithms for 90-day and one-year mortality prediction in femoral neck fracture (FNF) patients aged 50 years or older based on the Hip fracture Evaluation with Alternatives of Total Hip arthroplasty versus Hemiarthroplasty (HEALTH) and Fixation using Alternative Implants for the Treatment of Hip fractures (FAITH) trials.

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Surgical approaches to cervical ossification of the posterior longitudinal ligament (OPLL) remain controversial. The purpose of the present study was to analyze and compare the long-term neurological recovery following anterior decompression with fusion (ADF) and posterior laminectomy and fusion with bone graft and internal fixation (PLF) based on > ten-year follow-up outcomes in a single centre.

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Gram-negative infections are associated with comorbid patients, but outcomes are less well understood. This study reviewed diagnosis, management, and treatment for a cohort treated in a tertiary spinal centre.

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The aim of this study was to compare the preinjury functional scores with the postinjury preoperative score and postoperative outcome scores following anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction surgery (ACLR).

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Hip resurfacing remains a potentially valuable surgical procedure for appropriately-selected patients with optimised implant choices. However, concern regarding high early failure rates continues to undermine confidence in use. A large contributor to failure is adverse local tissue reactions around metal-on-metal (MoM) bearing surfaces. Such phenomena have been well-explored around MoM total hip arthroplasties, but comparable data in equivalent hip resurfacing procedures is lacking. In order to define genetic predisposition, we performed a case-control study investigating the role of human leucocyte antigen (HLA) genotype in the development of pseudotumours around MoM hip resurfacings.

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Though most humeral shaft fractures heal nonoperatively, up to one-third may lead to nonunion with inferior outcomes. The Radiographic Union Score for HUmeral Fractures (RUSHU) was created to identify high-risk patients for nonunion. Our study evaluated the RUSHU’s prognostic performance at six and 12 weeks in discriminating nonunion within a significantly larger cohort than before.

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To identify factors influencing clinicians’ decisions to undertake a nonoperative hip fracture management approach among older people, and to determine whether there is global heterogeneity regarding these factors between clinicians from high-income countries (HIC) and low- and middle-income countries (LMIC).

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Although there are various pelvic osteotomies for acetabular dysplasia of the hip, shelf operations offer effective and minimally invasive osteotomy. Our study aimed to assess outcomes following modified Spitzy shelf acetabuloplasty.

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The purpose of this study was to compare reoperation and revision rates of double plating (DP), single plating using a lateral locking plate (SP), or distal femoral arthroplasty (DFA) for the treatment of periprosthetic distal femur fractures (PDFFs).