Aims. The aim of this study was to develop and internally validate a prognostic nomogram to predict the probability of gaining a functional range of motion (ROM ≥ 120°) after open arthrolysis of the elbow in patients with post-traumatic stiffness of the elbow. Methods. We developed the Shanghai Prediction Model for Elbow Stiffness Surgical Outcome (SPESSO) based on a dataset of 551 patients who underwent open arthrolysis of the elbow in four institutions. Demographic and clinical characteristics were collected from medical records. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was used to optimize the selection of relevant features. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to build the SPESSO. Its prediction performance was evaluated using the concordance index (C-index) and a calibration graph. Internal validation was conducted using bootstrapping validation. Results. BMI, the duration of stiffness, the preoperative ROM, the preoperative intensity of pain, and grade of post-traumatic osteoarthritis of the elbow were identified as predictors of outcome and incorporated to construct the nomogram. SPESSO displayed good discrimination with a C-index of 0.73 (95% confidence interval 0.64 to 0.81). A high C-index value of 0.70 could still be reached in the interval validation. The calibration graph showed good agreement between the nomogram prediction and the outcome. Conclusion. The newly developed SPESSO is a valid and convenient model which can be used to predict the outcome of open arthrolysis of the elbow. It could assist clinicians in counselling patients regarding the choice and expectations of treatment. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(4):486–494

Aims. The outcomes following nonoperative management of minimally displaced greater tuberosity (GT) fractures, and the factors which influence patient experience, remain poorly defined. We assessed the early patient-derived outcomes following these injuries and examined the effect of a range of demographic- and injury-related variables on these outcomes. Methods. In total, 101 patients (53 female, 48 male) with a mean age of 50.9 years (19 to 76) with minimally displaced GT fractures were recruited to a prospective observational cohort study. During the first year after injury, patients underwent experiential assessment using the Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand (DASH) score and assessment of associated injuries using MRI performed within two weeks of injury. The primary outcome was the one-year DASH score. Multivariate analysis was used to assess the effect of patient demographic factors, complications, and associated injuries, on outcome. Results. The mean DASH score improved from 42.3 (SD 9.6) at six weeks post-injury, to 19.5 (SD 14.3) at one-year follow-up (p < 0.001), but outcomes were mixed, with 30 patients having a DASH score > 30 at one year. MRI revealed a range of associated injuries, with a full-thickness rotator cuff tear present in 19 patients (19%). Overall, 11 patients (11%) developed complications requiring further operative intervention; 20 patients (21%) developed post-traumatic secondary shoulder stiffness. Multivariate analysis revealed a high-energy mechanism (p = 0.009), tobacco consumption (p = 0.033), use of mobility aids (p = 0.047), a full-thickness rotator cuff tear (p = 0.002), and the development of post-traumatic secondary shoulder stiffness (p = 0.035) were independent predictors of poorer outcome. Conclusion. The results of nonoperative management of minimally displaced GT fractures are heterogeneous. While many patients have satisfactory early outcomes, a substantial subgroup fare much worse. There is a high prevalence of rotator cuff injuries and post-traumatic shoulder stiffness, and their presence is associated with poorer patient experience. Furthermore, patients who have a high-energy injury, smoke, or use walking aids, have worse outcomes. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(5):534–542

Aims

The aim of this study was to analyze how proximal radial neck resorption (PRNR) starts and progresses radiologically in two types of press-fit radial head arthroplasties (RHAs), and to investigate its clinical relevance.