We have investigated the accuracy of the templating of digital radiographs in planning total hip replacement using two common object-based calibration methods with the ball placed laterally (method 1) or medially (method 2) and compared them with two non-object-based methods. The latter comprised the application of a fixed magnification of 121% (method 3) and calculation of magnification based on the object-film-distance (method 4). We studied the post-operative radiographs of 57 patients (19 men, 38 women, mean age 73 years (53 to 89)) using the measured diameter of the prosthetic femoral head and comparing it with the true value. Both object-based methods (1 and 2) produced large errors (mean/maximum: 2.55%/17.4% and 2.04%/6.46%, respectively). Method 3 applying a fixed magnification and method 4 (object-film-distance) produced smaller errors (mean/maximum 1.42%/5.22% and 1.57%/4.24%, respectively; p < 0.01). The latter results were clinically relevant and acceptable when planning was allowed to within one implant size. Object-based calibration (methods 1 and 2) has fundamental problems with the correct placement of the calibration ball. The accuracy of the fixed magnification (method 3) matched that of object-film-distance (method 4) and was the most reliable and efficient calibration method in digital templating

Digital radiography is becoming widespread. Accurate pre-operative templating of digital images of the hip traditionally involves positioning a calibration object at its centre. This can be difficult and cause embarrassment. We have devised a method whereby a planar disc placed on the radiographic cassette accounts for the expected magnification. Initial examination of 50 pelvic CT scans showed a mean hip centre distance of 117 mm (79 to 142) above the gluteal skin. Further calculations predicted that a disc of 37.17 mm diameter, placed on the cassette, would appear identical to a 30 mm sphere placed at the level of the centre of the hip as requested by our templating software. We assessed accuracy and reproducibility by ‘reverse calibration’ of 20 radiographs taken three months after hip replacement using simultaneous sphere and disc methods, and a further 20 with a precision disc of accurate size. Even when variations in patient size were ignored, the disc proved more accurate and reliable than the sphere. The technique is reliable, robust, cost effective and acceptable to patients and radiographers. It can easily be used in any radiography department after a few simple calculations and manufacture of appropriately-sized discs

Aims. This study aimed to compare the performance of survival prediction models for bone metastases of the extremities (BM-E) with pathological fractures in an Asian cohort, and investigate patient characteristics associated with survival. Methods. This retrospective cohort study included 469 patients, who underwent surgery for BM-E between January 2009 and March 2022 at a tertiary hospital in South Korea. Postoperative survival was calculated using the PATHFx3.0, SPRING13, OPTIModel, SORG, and IOR models. Model performance was assessed with area under the curve (AUC), calibration curve, Brier score, and decision curve analysis. Cox regression analyses were performed to evaluate the factors contributing to survival. Results. The SORG model demonstrated the highest discriminatory accuracy with AUC (0.80 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.76 to 0.85)) at 12 months. In calibration analysis, the PATHfx3.0 and OPTIModel models underestimated survival, while the SPRING13 and IOR models overestimated survival. The SORG model exhibited excellent calibration with intercepts of 0.10 (95% CI -0.13 to 0.33) at 12 months. The SORG model also had lower Brier scores than the null score at three and 12 months, indicating good overall performance. Decision curve analysis showed that all five survival prediction models provided greater net benefit than the default strategy of operating on either all or no patients. Rapid growth cancer and low serum albumin levels were associated with three-, six-, and 12-month survival. Conclusion. State-of-art survival prediction models for BM-E (PATHFx3.0, SPRING13, OPTIModel, SORG, and IOR models) are useful clinical tools for orthopaedic surgeons in the decision-making process for the treatment in Asian patients, with SORG models offering the best predictive performance. Rapid growth cancer and serum albumin level are independent, statistically significant factors contributing to survival following surgery of BM-E. Further refinement of survival prediction models will bring about informed and patient-specific treatment of BM-E. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(2):203–211

Aims. The Uppföljningsprogram för cerebral pares (CPUP) Hip Score distinguishes between children with cerebral palsy (CP) at different levels of risk for displacement of the hip. The score was constructed using data from Swedish children with CP, but has not been confirmed in any other population. The aim of this study was to determine the calibration and discriminatory accuracy of this score in children with CP in Scotland. Methods. This was a total population-based study of children registered with the Cerebral Palsy Integrated Pathway Scotland. Displacement of the hip was defined as a migration percentage (MP) of > 40%. Inclusion criteria were children in Gross Motor Function Classification System (GMFCS) levels III to V. The calibration slope was estimated and Kaplan-Meier curves produced for five strata of CPUP scores to compare the observed with the predicted risk of displacement of the hip at five years. For discriminatory accuracy, the time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was estimated. In order to analyze differences in the performance of the score between cohorts, score weights, and subsequently the AUC, were re-estimated using the variables of the original score: the child’s age at the first examination, GMFCS level, head shaft angle, and MP of the worst hip in a logistic regression with imputation of outcomes for those with incomplete follow-up. Results. The discriminatory accuracy of the score in the new population of 367 children was high (AUC 0.78 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.71 to 0.86)). The calibration of the score was insufficient (slope 0.48 (95% CI 0.31 to 0.65)), and the absolute risks of displacement of the hip in this population were overestimated. The AUC increased with re-estimated weights (0.85 (95% CI 0.79 to 0.91)). Conclusion. The CPUP Hip Score had a high ability to discriminate between children at different levels of risk for displacement of the hip. The score overestimated the absolute risks of displacement in this population, which may have resulted from differences in the way children were initially registered in the two programmes. The results are promising, but the score weights may need re-estimation before its clinical application in Scotland. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(5):640–644

Aims. Heterotopic ossification (HO) is a common complication after elbow trauma and can cause severe upper limb disability. Although multiple prognostic factors have been reported to be associated with the development of post-traumatic HO, no model has yet been able to combine these predictors more succinctly to convey prognostic information and medical measures to patients. Therefore, this study aimed to identify prognostic factors leading to the formation of HO after surgery for elbow trauma, and to establish and validate a nomogram to predict the probability of HO formation in such particular injuries. Methods. This multicentre case-control study comprised 200 patients with post-traumatic elbow HO and 229 patients who had elbow trauma but without HO formation between July 2019 and December 2020. Features possibly associated with HO formation were obtained. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was used to optimize feature selection. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was applied to build the new nomogram: the Shanghai post-Traumatic Elbow Heterotopic Ossification Prediction model (STEHOP). STEHOP was validated by concordance index (C-index) and calibration plot. Internal validation was conducted using bootstrapping validation. Results. Male sex, obesity, open wound, dislocations, late definitive surgical treatment, and lack of use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs were identified as adverse predictors and incorporated to construct the STEHOP model. It displayed good discrimination with a C-index of 0.80 (95% confidence interval 0.75 to 0.84). A high C-index value of 0.77 could still be reached in the internal validation. The calibration plot showed good agreement between nomogram prediction and observed outcomes. Conclusion. The newly developed STEHOP model is a valid and convenient instrument to predict HO formation after surgery for elbow trauma. It could assist clinicians in counselling patients regarding treatment expectations and therapeutic choices. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(8):963–971

Aims. The aim of this study was to develop and internally validate a prognostic nomogram to predict the probability of gaining a functional range of motion (ROM ≥ 120°) after open arthrolysis of the elbow in patients with post-traumatic stiffness of the elbow. Methods. We developed the Shanghai Prediction Model for Elbow Stiffness Surgical Outcome (SPESSO) based on a dataset of 551 patients who underwent open arthrolysis of the elbow in four institutions. Demographic and clinical characteristics were collected from medical records. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was used to optimize the selection of relevant features. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to build the SPESSO. Its prediction performance was evaluated using the concordance index (C-index) and a calibration graph. Internal validation was conducted using bootstrapping validation. Results. BMI, the duration of stiffness, the preoperative ROM, the preoperative intensity of pain, and grade of post-traumatic osteoarthritis of the elbow were identified as predictors of outcome and incorporated to construct the nomogram. SPESSO displayed good discrimination with a C-index of 0.73 (95% confidence interval 0.64 to 0.81). A high C-index value of 0.70 could still be reached in the interval validation. The calibration graph showed good agreement between the nomogram prediction and the outcome. Conclusion. The newly developed SPESSO is a valid and convenient model which can be used to predict the outcome of open arthrolysis of the elbow. It could assist clinicians in counselling patients regarding the choice and expectations of treatment. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(4):486–494

Aims. To develop and externally validate a parsimonious statistical prediction model of 90-day mortality after elective total hip arthroplasty (THA), and to provide a web calculator for clinical usage. Methods. We included 53,099 patients with cemented THA due to osteoarthritis from the Swedish Hip Arthroplasty Registry for model derivation and internal validation, as well as 125,428 patients from England and Wales recorded in the National Joint Register for England, Wales, Northern Ireland, the Isle of Man, and the States of Guernsey (NJR) for external model validation. A model was developed using a bootstrap ranking procedure with a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression model combined with piecewise linear regression. Discriminative ability was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Calibration belt plots were used to assess model calibration. Results. A main effects model combining age, sex, American Society for Anesthesiologists (ASA) class, the presence of cancer, diseases of the central nervous system, kidney disease, and diagnosed obesity had good discrimination, both internally (AUC = 0.78, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.75 to 0.81) and externally (AUC = 0.75, 95% CI 0.73 to 0.76). This model was superior to traditional models based on the Charlson (AUC = 0.66, 95% CI 0.62 to 0.70) and Elixhauser (AUC = 0.64, 95% CI 0.59 to 0.68) comorbidity indices. The model was well calibrated for predicted probabilities up to 5%. Conclusion. We developed a parsimonious model that may facilitate individualized risk assessment prior to one of the most common surgical interventions. We have published a web calculator to aid clinical decision-making. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(3):469–478

Aims. The aim of this study was to identify factors associated with five-year cancer-related mortality in patients with limb and trunk soft-tissue sarcoma (STS) and develop and validate machine learning algorithms in order to predict five-year cancer-related mortality in these patients. Methods. Demographic, clinicopathological, and treatment variables of limb and trunk STS patients in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER) database from 2004 to 2017 were analyzed. Multivariable logistic regression was used to determine factors significantly associated with five-year cancer-related mortality. Various machine learning models were developed and compared using area under the curve (AUC), calibration, and decision curve analysis. The model that performed best on the SEER testing data was further assessed to determine the variables most important in its predictive capacity. This model was externally validated using our institutional dataset. Results. A total of 13,646 patients with STS from the SEER database were included, of whom 35.9% experienced five-year cancer-related mortality. The random forest model performed the best overall and identified tumour size as the most important variable when predicting mortality in patients with STS, followed by M stage, histological subtype, age, and surgical excision. Each variable was significant in logistic regression. External validation yielded an AUC of 0.752. Conclusion. This study identified clinically important variables associated with five-year cancer-related mortality in patients with limb and trunk STS, and developed a predictive model that demonstrated good accuracy and predictability. Orthopaedic oncologists may use these findings to further risk-stratify their patients and recommend an optimal course of treatment. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(6):702–710

Aims. Our aim was to develop and validate nomograms that would predict the cumulative incidence of sarcoma-specific death (CISSD) and disease progression (CIDP) in patients with localized high-grade primary central and dedifferentiated chondrosarcoma. Methods. The study population consisted of 391 patients from two international sarcoma centres (development cohort) who had undergone definitive surgery for a localized high-grade (histological grade II or III) conventional primary central chondrosarcoma or dedifferentiated chondrosarcoma. Disease progression captured the first event of either metastasis or local recurrence. An independent cohort of 221 patients from three additional hospitals was used for external validation. Two nomograms were internally and externally validated for discrimination (c-index) and calibration plot. Results. In the development cohort, the CISSD at ten years was 32.9% (95% confidence interval (CI) 19.8% to 38.4%). Age at diagnosis, grade, and surgical margin were found to have significant effects on CISSD and CIDP in multivariate analyses. Maximum tumour diameter was also significantly associated with CISSD. In the development cohort, the c-indices for CISSD and CIDP at five years were 0.743 (95% CI 0.700 to 0.819) and 0.761 (95% CI 0.713 to 0.800), respectively. When applied to the validation cohort, the c-indices for CISSD and CIDP at five years were 0.839 (95% CI 0.763 to 0.916) and 0.749 (95% CI 0.672 to 0.825), respectively. The calibration plots for these two nomograms demonstrated good fit. Conclusion. Our nomograms performed well on internal and external validation and can be used to predict CISSD and CIDP after resection of localized high-grade conventional primary central and dedifferentiated chondrosarcomas. They provide a new tool with which clinicians can assess and advise individual patients about their prognosis. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(12):1752–1759

Aims. To develop and internally validate a preoperative clinical prediction model for acute adjacent vertebral fracture (AVF) after vertebral augmentation to support preoperative decision-making, named the after vertebral augmentation (AVA) score. Methods. In this prognostic study, a multicentre, retrospective single-level vertebral augmentation cohort of 377 patients from six Japanese hospitals was used to derive an AVF prediction model. Backward stepwise selection (p < 0.05) was used to select preoperative clinical and imaging predictors for acute AVF after vertebral augmentation for up to one month, from 14 predictors. We assigned a score to each selected variable based on the regression coefficient and developed the AVA scoring system. We evaluated sensitivity and specificity for each cut-off, area under the curve (AUC), and calibration as diagnostic performance. Internal validation was conducted using bootstrapping to correct the optimism. Results. Of the 377 patients used for model derivation, 58 (15%) had an acute AVF postoperatively. The following preoperative measures on multivariable analysis were summarized in the five-point AVA score: intravertebral instability (≥ 5 mm), focal kyphosis (≥ 10°), duration of symptoms (≥ 30 days), intravertebral cleft, and previous history of vertebral fracture. Internal validation showed a mean optimism of 0.019 with a corrected AUC of 0.77. A cut-off of ≤ one point was chosen to classify a low risk of AVF, for which only four of 137 patients (3%) had AVF with 92.5% sensitivity and 45.6% specificity. A cut-off of ≥ four points was chosen to classify a high risk of AVF, for which 22 of 38 (58%) had AVF with 41.5% sensitivity and 94.5% specificity. Conclusion. In this study, the AVA score was found to be a simple preoperative method for the identification of patients at low and high risk of postoperative acute AVF. This model could be applied to individual patients and could aid in the decision-making before vertebral augmentation. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(1):97–102

Aims. The incidence of bone metastases is between 20% to 75% depending on the type of cancer. As treatment improves, the number of patients who need surgical intervention is increasing. Identifying patients with a shorter life expectancy would allow surgical intervention with more durable reconstructions to be targeted to those most likely to benefit. While previous scoring systems have focused on surgical and oncological factors, there is a need to consider comorbidities and the physiological state of the patient, as these will also affect outcome. The primary aim of this study was to create a scoring system to estimate survival time in patients with bony metastases and to determine which factors may adversely affect this. Methods. This was a retrospective study which included all patients who had presented for surgery with metastatic bone disease. The data collected included patient, surgical, and oncological variables. Univariable and multivariable analysis identified which factors were associated with a survival time of less than six months and less than one year. A model to predict survival based on these factors was developed using Cox regression. Results. A total of 164 patients were included with a median survival time of 1.6 years (interquartile range 0.5 to 3.1) after surgery. On multivariable analysis, a higher American Society of Anesthesiologists grade (p < 0.001), a high white cell count (p = 0.002), hyponatraemia (p = 0.001), a preoperative resting heart rate of > 100 bpm (p = 0.052), and the type of primary cancer (p = 0.026) remained significant predictors of reduced survival time. The predictive model developed showed good discrimination and calibration to predict both six- and 12-month survival in patients with metastatic bone disease. Conclusion. In addition to surgical and oncological factors, the level of comorbidity and physiological state of the patient has a significant impact on survival in patients with metastatic bone disease. These factors should be considered when assessing the appropriateness of surgical intervention. This is the first study to examine other patient factors alongside surgical and oncological data to identify a relationship between these and survival. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(11):1725–1730

Aims. The aim of this study was to explore the prognostic factors for postoperative neurological recovery and survival in patients with complete paralysis due to neoplastic epidural spinal cord compression. Patients and Methods. The medical records of 135 patients with complete paralysis due to neoplastic cord compression were retrospectively reviewed. Potential factors including the timing of surgery, muscular tone, and tumour characteristics were analyzed in relation to neurological recovery using logistical regression analysis. The association between neurological recovery and survival was analyzed using a Cox model. A nomogram was formulated to predict recovery. Results. A total of 52 patients (38.5%) achieved American Spinal Injury Association Impairment Scale (AIS) D or E recovery postoperatively. The timing of surgery (p = 0.003) was found to be significant in univariate analysis. In multivariate analysis, surgery within one week was associated with better neurological recovery than surgery within three weeks (p = 0.002), with a trend towards being associated with a better neurological recovery than surgery within one to two weeks (p = 0.597) and two to three weeks (p = 0.055). Age (p = 0.039) and muscle tone (p = 0.018) were also significant predictors. In Cox regression analysis, good neurological recovery (p = 0.004), benign tumours (p = 0.039), and primary tumours (p = 0.005) were associated with longer survival. Calibration graphs showed that the nomogram did well with an ideal model. The bootstrap-corrected C-index for neurological recovery was 0.72. Conclusion. In patients with complete paralysis due to neoplastic spinal cord compression, whose treatment is delayed for more than 48 hours from the onset of symptoms, surgery within one week is still beneficial. Surgery undertaken at this time may still offer neurological recovery and longer survival. The identification of the association between these factors and neurological recovery may help guide treatment for these patients. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B:872–879

Early and accurate prediction of hospital length-of-stay (LOS) in patients undergoing knee replacement is important for economic and operational reasons. Few studies have systematically developed a multivariable model to predict LOS. We performed a retrospective cohort study of 1609 patients aged ≥ 50 years who underwent elective, primary total or unicompartmental knee replacements. Pre-operative candidate predictors included patient demographics, knee function, self-reported measures, surgical factors and discharge plans. In order to develop the model, multivariable regression with bootstrap internal validation was used. The median LOS for the sample was four days (interquartile range 4 to 5). Statistically significant predictors of longer stay included older age, greater number of comorbidities, less knee flexion range of movement, frequent feelings of being down and depressed, greater walking aid support required, total (versus unicompartmental) knee replacement, bilateral surgery, low-volume surgeon, absence of carer at home, and expectation to receive step-down care. For ease of use, these ten variables were used to construct a nomogram-based prediction model which showed adequate predictive accuracy (optimism-corrected R. 2. = 0.32) and calibration. If externally validated, a prediction model using easily and routinely obtained pre-operative measures may be used to predict absolute LOS in patients following knee replacement and help to better manage these patients. . Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2013;95-B:1490–6

Aims

To examine whether natural language processing (NLP) using a clinically based large language model (LLM) could be used to predict patient selection for total hip or total knee arthroplasty (THA/TKA) from routinely available free-text radiology reports.

Prediction tools are instruments which are commonly used to estimate the prognosis in oncology and facilitate clinical decision-making in a more personalized manner. Their popularity is shown by the increasing numbers of prediction tools, which have been described in the medical literature. Many of these tools have been shown to be useful in the field of soft-tissue sarcoma of the extremities (eSTS). In this annotation, we aim to provide an overview of the available prediction tools for eSTS, provide an approach for clinicians to evaluate the performance and usefulness of the available tools for their own patients, and discuss their possible applications in the management of patients with an eSTS.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(9):1011–1016.

Polyethylene particulate wear debris continues to be implicated in the aetiology of aseptic loosening following knee arthroplasty. The Oxford unicompartmental knee arthroplasty employs a spherical femoral component and a fully congruous meniscal bearing to increase contact area and theoretically reduce the potential for polyethylene wear. This study measures the in vivo ten-year linear wear of the device, using a roentgenstereophotogrammetric technique. In this in vivo study, seven medial Oxford unicompartmental prostheses, which had been implanted ten years previously were studied. Stereo pairs of radiographs were acquired for each patient and the films were analysed using a roentgen stereophotogrammetric analysis calibration and a computer-aided design model silhouette-fitting technique. Penetration of the femoral component into the original volume of the bearing was our estimate of linear wear. In addition, eight control patients were examined less than three weeks post-insertion of an Oxford prosthesis, where no wear would be expected. The control group showed no measured wear and suggested a system accuracy of 0.1 mm. At ten years, the mean linear wear rate was 0.02 mm/year. The results from this in vivo study confirm that the device has low ten-year linear wear in clinical practice. This may offer the device a survival advantage in the long term

Aims

The aim of this study was to investigate the agreement in interpretation of the quality of the paediatric hip ultrasound examination, the reliability of geometric and morphological assessment, and the relationship between these measurements.

Aims

Cemented hemiarthroplasty is an effective form of treatment for most patients with an intracapsular fracture of the hip. However, it remains unclear whether there are subgroups of patients who may benefit from the alternative operation of a modern uncemented hemiarthroplasty – the aim of this study was to investigate this issue. Knowledge about the heterogeneity of treatment effects is important for surgeons in order to target operations towards specific subgroups who would benefit the most.

Aims

The aim of this study was to compare the migration of the femoral component, five years postoperatively, between patients with a highly cross-linked polyethylene (HXLPE) insert and those with a conventional polyethylene (PE) insert in an uncemented Triathlon fixed insert cruciate-retaining total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Secondary aims included clinical outcomes and patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs). We have previously reported the migration and outcome of the tibial components in these patients.

Aims

Dual-mobility acetabular components (DMCs) have improved total hip arthroplasty (THA) stability in femoral neck fractures (FNFs). In osteoarthritis, the direct anterior approach (DAA) has been promoted for improving early functional results compared with the posterolateral approach (PLA). The aim of this study was to compare these two approaches in FNF using DMC-THA.