Aims. The aim of this study was to identify the origin and development of the threshold for surgical intervention, highlight the consequences of residual displacement, and justify the importance of accurate measurement. Methods. A systematic review of three databases was performed to establish the origin and adaptations of the threshold, with papers screened and relevant citations reviewed. This search identified papers investigating functional outcome, including presence of arthritis, following injury. Orthopaedic textbooks were reviewed to ensure no earlier mention of the threshold was present. Results. Knirk and Jupiter (1986) were the first to quantify a threshold, with all their patients developing arthritis with > 2 mm displacement. Some papers have discussed using 1 mm, although 2 mm is most widely reported. Current guidance from the British Society for Surgery of the Hand and a Delphi panel support 2 mm as an appropriate value. Although this paper is still widely cited, the authors published a re-examination of the data showing methodological flaws which is not as widely reported. They claim their conclusions are still relevant today; however, radiological arthritis does not correlate with the clinical presentation. Function following injury has been shown to be equivalent to an uninjured population, with arthritis progressing slowly or not at all. Joint space narrowing has also been shown to often be benign. Conclusion. Knirk and Jupiter originated the threshold value of 2 mm. The lack of correlation between the radiological and clinical presentations warrants further modern investigation. Measurement often varies between observers, calling a threshold concept into question and showing the need for further development in this area. The principle of treatment remains restoration of normal anatomical position. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(9):1457–1461

Aims. Unicompartmental knee arthroplasty (UKA) has higher revision rates than total knee arthroplasty (TKA). As revision of UKA may be less technically demanding than revision TKA, UKA patients with poor functional outcomes may be more likely to be offered revision than TKA patients with similar outcomes. The aim of this study was to compare clinical thresholds for revisions between TKA and UKA using revision incidence and patient-reported outcomes, in a large, matched cohort at early, mid-, and late-term follow-up. Methods. Analyses were performed on propensity score-matched patient cohorts of TKAs and UKAs (2:1) registered in the New Zealand Joint Registry between 1 January 1999 and 31 December 2019 with an Oxford Knee Score (OKS) response at six months (n, TKA: 16,774; UKA: 8,387), five years (TKA: 6,718; UKA: 3,359), or ten years (TKA: 3,486; UKA: 1,743). Associations between OKS and revision within two years following the score were examined. Thresholds were compared using receiver operating characteristic analysis. Reasons for aseptic revision were compared using cumulative incidence with competing risk. Results. Fewer TKA patients with ‘poor’ outcomes (≤ 25) subsequently underwent revision compared with UKA at six months (5.1% vs 19.6%; p < 0.001), five years (4.3% vs 12.5%; p < 0.001), and ten years (6.4% vs 15.0%; p = 0.024). Compared with TKA, the relative risk for UKA was 2.5-times higher for ‘unknown’ reasons, bearing dislocations, and disease progression. Conclusion. Compared with TKA, more UKA patients with poor outcomes underwent revision from early to long-term follow-up, and were more likely to undergo revision for ‘unknown’ reasons, which suggest a lower clinical threshold for UKA. For UKA, revision risk was higher for bearing dislocations and disease progression. There is supporting evidence that the higher revision UKA rates are associated with lower clinical thresholds for revision and additional modes of failure. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(3):269–276

Aims. Mechanical impingement of the iliopsoas (IP) tendon accounts for 2% to 6% of persistent postoperative pain after total hip arthroplasty (THA). The most common initiator is anterior acetabular component protrusion, where the anterior margin is not covered by anterior acetabular wall. A CT scan can be used to identify and measure this overhang; however, no threshold exists for determining symptomatic anterior IP impingement due to overhang. A case-control study was conducted in which CT scan measurements were used to define a threshold that differentiates patients with IP impingement from asymptomatic patients after THA. Methods. We analyzed the CT scans of 622 patients (758 THAs) between May 2011 and May 2020. From this population, we identified 136 patients with symptoms suggestive of IP impingement. Among them, six were subsequently excluded: three because the diagnosis was refuted intraoperatively, and three because they had another obvious cause of impingement, leaving 130 hips (130 patients) in the study (impingement) group. They were matched to a control group of 138 asymptomatic hips (138 patients) after THA. The anterior acetabular component overhang was measured on an axial CT slice based on anatomical landmarks (orthogonal to the pelvic axis). Results. The impingement group had a median overhang of 8 mm (interquartile range (IQR) 5 to 11) versus 0 mm (IQR 0 to 4) for the control group (p < 0.001). Using receiver operating characteristic curves, an overhang threshold of 4 mm was best correlated with a diagnosis of impingement (sensitivity 79%, specificity 85%; positive predictive value 75%, negative predictive value 85%). Conclusion. Pain after THA related to IP impingement can be reasonably linked to acetabular overhang if it exceeds 4 mm on a CT scan. Below this threshold, it seems logical to look for another cause of IP irritation or another reason for the pain after THA before concluding that impingement is present. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(3 Supple A):97–103

Aims. The aim of this study was to identify the minimal clinically important difference (MCID), minimal important change (MIC), minimal detectable change (MDC), and patient-acceptable symptom state (PASS) in the Forgotten Joint Score (FJS) according to patient satisfaction six months following total hip arthroplasty (THA) in a UK population. Methods. During a one-year period, 461 patients underwent a primary THA and completed preoperative and six-month FJS, with a mean age of 67.2 years (22 to 93). At six months, patient satisfaction was recorded as very satisfied, satisfied, neutral, dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied. The difference between patients recording neutral (n = 31) and satisfied (n = 101) was used to define the MCID. MIC for a cohort was defined as the change in the FJS for those patients declaring their outcome as satisfied, whereas receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was used to determine the MIC for an individual and the PASS. Distribution-based methodology was used to calculate the MDC. Results. Using satisfaction as the anchor, the MCID for the FJS was 8.1 (95% confidence interval (CI) 3.7 to 15.9; p = 0.040), which was affirmed when adjusting for confounding. The MIC for the FJS for a cohort of patients was 17.7 (95% CI 13.7 to 21.7) and for an individual patient was 18. The MDC90 for the FJS was eight, meaning that 90% of patients scoring more than this will have experienced a real change that is beyond measurement error. The PASS threshold for the FJS was defined as 29. Conclusion. The MCID and MIC can be used respectively to assess whether there is a clinical difference between two groups, or whether a cohort or patient has had a meaningful change in their FJS. Both values were greater than measurement error (MDC90), suggesting a real change. The PASS threshold for the postoperative FJS can be used as a marker of achieving patient satisfaction following THA. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(12):1759–1765

Aims. It has been hypothesized that a unicompartmental knee arthroplasty (UKA) is more likely to be revised than a total knee arthroplasty (TKA) because conversion surgery to a primary TKA is a less complicated procedure. The purpose of this study was to determine if there is a lower threshold for revising a UKA compared with TKA based on Oxford Knee Scores (OKSs) and range of movement (ROM) at the time of revision. Methods. We retrospectively reviewed 619 aseptic revision cases performed between December 1998 and October 2018. This included 138 UKAs that underwent conversion to TKA and 481 initial TKA revisions. Age, body mass index (BMI), time in situ, OKS, and ROM were available for all patients. Results. There were no differences between the two groups based on demographics or time to revision. The top reasons for aseptic TKA revision were loosening in 212 (44%), instability in 88 (18%), and wear in 69 (14%). UKA revision diagnoses were primarily for loosening in 50 (36%), progression of osteoarthritis (OA) in 50 (36%), and wear in 17 (12%). Out of a maximum 48 points, the mean OKS of the UKAs before revision was 23 (SD 9.3), which was significantly higher than the TKAs at 19.2 (SD 9.8; p < 0.001). UKA patients scored statistically better on nine of the 12 individual OKS questions. The UKA cases also had a larger pre-revision mean ROM (114°, SD 14.3°) than TKAs (98°, SD 25°) ; p < 0.001). Conclusion. At revision, the mean UKA OKSs and ROM were significantly better than those of TKA cases. This study suggests that at our institution there is a difference in preoperative OKS between UKA and TKA at the time of revision, demonstrating a revision bias. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(6 Supple A):91–95

Aims. We hypothesised that the synovial white blood cell (WBC) count in patients with a late periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) of the hip would depend on the duration of a patient’s symptoms, and that the optimal diagnostic threshold would also depend on this period of time. Patients and Methods. The synovial WBC count and percentage of polymorphonuclear cells (%PMN), and the serum CRP and ESR levels obtained > six weeks after primary THA were compared between 50 infected and 88 non-infected THAs, and in patients with symptoms for more than or less than two weeks. Diagnostic thresholds for the synovial WBC count were calculated using area under the curve calculation. Results. The synovial WBC count was significantly higher in patients with symptoms for ≤ two weeks compared with those with symptoms for > two weeks (p = 0.03). The optimal threshold for diagnosing PJI for the synovial WBC count was 5750 cells/µL (sensitivity 94; specificity 100; PPV 100%; NPV 89%; AUC 99%) and 1556 cells/µL (sensitivity 91; specificity 94; PPV 87% and NPV 97%; AUC 95%), respectively. The thresholds for the cut-offs based on duration of symptoms improved the diagnostic performance of this test. Conclusion. This study shows that the diagnostic thresholds for synovial fluid analysis in late periprosthetic infection following THA may depend on duration of symptoms. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2016;98-B:1355–9

Aims. To calculate how the likelihood of obtaining measurable benefit from hip or knee arthroplasty varies with preoperative patient-reported scores. Methods. Existing UK data from 222,933 knee and 209,760 hip arthroplasty patients were used to model an individual’s probability of gaining meaningful improvement after surgery based on their preoperative Oxford Knee or Hip Score (OKS/OHS). A clinically meaningful improvement after arthroplasty was defined as ≥ 8 point improvement in OHS, and ≥ 7 in OKS. Results. The upper preoperative score threshold, above which patients are unlikely to achieve any meaningful improvement from surgery, is 41 for knees and 40 for hips. At lower scores, the probability of improvement increased towards a maximum of 88% (knee) and 95% for (hips). Conclusion. By our definition of meaningful improvement, patients with preoperative scores above 41 (OKS) and 40 (OHS) should not be routinely referred to secondary care for possible arthroplasty. Using lower thresholds would incrementally increase the probability of meaningful benefit for those referred but will exclude some patients with potential to benefit. The findings are useful to support the complex shared decision-making process in primary care for referral to secondary care; and in secondary care for experienced clinicians counselling patients considering knee or hip arthroplasty, but should not be used in isolation. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(7):941–949

Aims

Total hip arthroplasty (THA) is a very successful and cost-effective operation, yet debate continues about the optimum fixation philosophy in different age groups. The concept of the 'cementless paradox' and the UK 'Getting it Right First Time' initiative encourage increased use of cemented fixation due to purported lower revision rates, especially in elderly patients, and decreased cost.

We studied 27 patients with low back pain and unilateral L5 or S1 spinal nerve root pain. Significant radiological changes were restricted to the symptomatic root level, when compared with controls. Low back and leg pain were graded on a visual analogue scale. Dermatomal quantitative sensory tests revealed significant elevations of warm, cool and touch perception thresholds in the affected dermatome, compared with controls. These elevations correlated with root pain (warm v L5 root pain; r = 0.88, p < 0.0001), but not with back pain. Low back pain correlated with restriction of anteroposterior spinal flexion (p = 0.02), but not with leg pain. A subset of 16 patients underwent decompressive surgery with improvement of pain scores, sensory thresholds and spinal mobility. A further 14 patients with back pain, multilevel nerve root symptoms and radiological changes were also studied. The only correlation found was of low back pain with spinal movement (p < 0.002). We conclude that, in patients with single level disease, dermatomal sensory threshold elevation and restriction of spinal movement are independent correlates of sciatica and low back pain

Aims. The aims of this study were to validate the minimal clinically important difference (MCID) and patient-acceptable symptom state (PASS) thresholds for Western Ontario Shoulder Instability Index (WOSI), Rowe score, American Shoulder and Elbow Surgeons (ASES), and visual analogue scale (VAS) scores following arthroscopic Bankart repair, and to identify preoperative threshold values of these scores that could predict the achievement of MCID and PASS. Methods. A retrospective review was conducted on 131 consecutive patients with anterior shoulder instability who underwent arthroscopic Bankart repair between January 2020 and January 2023. Inclusion criteria required at least one episode of shoulder instability and a minimum follow-up period of 12 months. Preoperative and one-year postoperative scores were assessed. MCID and PASS were estimated using distribution-based and anchor-based methods, respectively. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis determined preoperative patient-reported outcome measure thresholds predictive of achieving MCID and PASS. Results. MCID thresholds were determined as 169.6, 6.8, 7.2, and 1.1 for WOSI, Rowe, ASES, and VAS, respectively. PASS thresholds were calculated as ≤ 480, ≥ 80, ≥ 87, and ≤ 1 for WOSI, Rowe, ASES, and VAS, respectively. Preoperative thresholds of ≥ 760 (WOSI) and ≤ 50 (Rowe) predicted achieving MCID for WOSI score (p < 0.001). Preoperative thresholds of ≤ 60 (ASES) and ≥ 2 (VAS) predicted achieving MCID for VAS score (p < 0.001). A preoperative threshold of ≥ 40 (Rowe) predicted achieving PASS for Rowe score (p = 0.005). Preoperative thresholds of ≥ 50 (ASES; p = 0.002) and ≤ 2 (VAS; p < 0.001) predicted achieving PASS for the ASES score. Preoperative thresholds of ≥ 43 (ASES; p = 0.046) and ≤ 4 (VAS; p = 0.024) predicted achieving PASS for the VAS. Conclusion. This study defined MCID and PASS values for WOSI, Rowe, ASES, and VAS scores in patients undergoing arthroscopic Bankart repair. Higher preoperative functional scores may reduce the likelihood of achieving MCID but increase the likelihood of achieving the PASS. These findings provide valuable guidance for surgeons to counsel patients realistically regarding their expectations. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(10):1118–1124

Aims. The aims of this study were to validate the Forgotten Joint Score-12 (FJS-12) in the postoperative evaluation of periacetabular osteotomy (PAO), identify factors associated with joint awareness after PAO, and determine the FJS-12 threshold for patient-acceptable symptom state (PASS). Methods. Data from 686 patients (882 hips) with hip dysplasia who underwent transposition osteotomy of the acetabulum, a type of PAO, between 1998 and 2019 were reviewed. After screening the study included 442 patients (582 hips; response rate, 78%). Patients who completed a study questionnaire consisting of the visual analogue scale (VAS) for pain and satisfaction, FJS-12, and Hip disability and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (HOOS) were included. The ceiling effects, internal consistency, convergent validity, and PASS thresholds of FJS-12 were investigated. Results. The median follow-up was 12 years (interquartile range 7 to 16). The ceiling effect of FJS-12 was 7.2%, the lowest of all the measures examined. FJS-12 correlated with all HOOS subscales (ρ = 0.72 to 0.77, p < 0.001) and pain and satisfaction-VAS (ρ = -0.63 and 0.56, p < 0.001), suggesting good convergent validity. Cronbach’s α was 0.95 for the FJS-12, which indicated excellent internal consistency. The median FJS-12 score for preoperative Tönnis grade 0 hips (60 points) was higher than that for grade 1 (51 points) or 2 (46 points). When PASS was defined as pain-VAS < 21 and satisfaction-VAS ≥ 77, the FJS-12 threshold that maximized the sensitivity and specificity for detecting PASS was 50 points (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.85). Conclusion. Our results suggest that FJS-12 is a valid and reliable assessment tool for patients undergoing PAO, and the threshold of 50 points may be useful to determine patient satisfaction following PAO in clinical settings. Further investigation of the factors influencing postoperative joint awareness may enable improved prediction of treatment efficacy and informed decision-making regarding the indication of PAO. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(7):760–767

Aims. The aim of this study was to produce clinical consensus recommendations about the non-surgical treatment of children with Perthes’ disease. The recommendations are intended to support clinical practice in a condition for which there is no robust evidence to guide optimal care. Methods. A two-round, modified Delphi study was conducted online. An advisory group of children’s orthopaedic specialists consisting of physiotherapists, surgeons, and clinical nurse specialists designed a survey. In the first round, participants also had the opportunity to suggest new statements. The survey included statements related to ‘Exercises’, ‘Physical activity’, ‘Education/information sharing’, ‘Input from other services’, and ‘Monitoring assessments’. The survey was shared with clinicians who regularly treat children with Perthes’ disease in the UK using clinically relevant specialist groups and social media. A predetermined threshold of ≥ 75% for consensus was used for recommendation, with a threshold of between 70% and 75% being considered as ‘points to consider’. Results. A total of 40 participants took part in the first round, of whom 31 completed the second round. A total of 87 statements were generated by the advisory group and included in the first round, at the end of which 31 achieved consensus and were removed from the survey, and an additional four statements were generated. A total of 60 statements were included in the second round and 45 achieved the threshold for consensus from both rounds, with three achieving the threshold for ‘points to consider’. The recommendations predominantly included self-management, particularly relating to advice about exercise and education for children with Perthes’ disease and their families. Conclusion. Children’s orthopaedic specialists have reached consensus on recommendations for non-surgical treatment in Perthes’ disease. These statements will support decisions made in clinical practice and act as a foundation to support clinicians in the absence of robust evidence. The dissemination of these findings and the best way of delivering this care needs careful consideration, which we will continue to explore. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(5):501–507

Aims. The early diagnosis of cauda equina syndrome (CES) is crucial for a favourable outcome. Several studies have reported the use of an ultrasound scan of the bladder as an adjunct to assess the minimum post-void residual volume of urine (mPVR). However, variable mPVR values have been proposed as a threshold without consensus on a value for predicting CES among patients with relevant symptoms and signs. The aim of this study was to perform a meta-analysis and systematic review of the published evidence to identify a threshold mPVR value which would provide the highest diagnostic accuracy in patients in whom the diagnosis of CES is suspected. Methods. The search strategy used electronic databases (PubMed, Medline, EMBASE, and AMED) for publications between January 1996 and November 2021. All studies that reported mPVR in patients in whom the diagnosis of CES was suspected, followed by MRI, were included. Results. A total of 2,115 studies were retrieved from the search. Seven fulfilled the inclusion criteria. These included 1,083 patients, with data available from 734 being available for meta-analysis. In 125 patients, CES was confirmed by MRI. The threshold value of mPVR reported in each study varied and could be categorized into 100 ml, 200 ml, 300 ml, and 500 ml. From the meta-analysis, 200 ml had the highest diagnostic accuracy, with 82% sensitivity (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.72 to 0.90) and 65% specificity (95% CI 0.70 to 0.90). When compared using summative receiver operating characteristic curves, mPVR of 200 ml was superior to other values in predicting the radiological confirmation of CES. Conclusion. mPVR is a useful tool when assessing patients in whom the diagnosis of CES is suspected. Compared with other values a mPVR of 200 ml had superior sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values. In a patient with a suggestive history and clinical findings, a mPVR of > 200 ml should further raise the suspicion of CES. Caution is recommended when considering the mPVR in isolation and using it as an ‘exclusion tool’, and it should only be used as an adjunct to a full clinical assessment. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(5):487–495

Aims. The aim of this study was to evaluate the healthcare costs and benefits of enoxaparin compared to aspirin in the prevention of symptomatic venous thromboembolism (VTE) after total hip arthroplasty (THA) or total knee arthroplasty (TKA) using data from the CRISTAL trial. Methods. This trial-based economic analysis reports value for money as incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained in 2022 Australian dollars, compared to a single threshold value of AUD$70,000 per QALY. Event costs were estimated based on occurrence of VTEs and bleeds, and on published guidelines for treatment. Unit costs were taken from Australian sources. QALYs were estimated using CRISTAL six-month follow-up data. Sensitivity analyses are presented that vary the cost of VTE treatment, and extend the analyses to two years. Results. The CRISTAL trial found that enoxaparin was more effective than aspirin in preventing symptomatic VTE within 90 days of THA or TKA (risk difference 1.97% (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.54% to 3.41%; p = 0.007)). The additional cost after a THA or TKA was AUD$83 (95% CI 68 to 97) for enoxaparin, and enoxaparin resulted in an additional 0.002 QALYs (95% CI -0.002 to 0.005). Incremental cost per QALY gained was AUD$50,567 (95% CI 15,513, dominated) for enoxaparin. We can be 60% confident that the incremental cost per QALY does not exceed the willingness-to-pay threshold of AUD$70,000. Increasing the cost of VTE treatment and extension of costs and consequences to two years suggested greater confidence that enoxaparin is good value for money (70% and 63% confidence, respectively). Conclusion. This analysis provides strong evidence that enoxaparin thromboprophylaxis following THA or TKA reduced VTEs, but weak evidence of net economic benefits over aspirin. If the value of avoiding VTEs is high, and there is a strong likelihood of VTE-related health impairments, we can be more confident that enoxaparin is cost-effective compared to aspirin. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(6):589–595

Aims. Clinical management of open fractures is challenging and frequently requires complex reconstruction procedures. The Gustilo-Anderson classification lacks uniform interpretation, has poor interobserver reliability, and fails to account for injuries to musculotendinous units and bone. The Ganga Hospital Open Injury Severity Score (GHOISS) was designed to address these concerns. The major aim of this review was to ascertain the evidence available on accuracy of the GHOISS in predicting successful limb salvage in patients with mangled limbs. Methods. We searched electronic data bases including PubMed, CENTRAL, EMBASE, CINAHL, Scopus, and Web of Science to identify studies that employed the GHOISS risk tool in managing complex limb injuries published from April 2006, when the score was introduced, until April 2021. Primary outcome was the measured sensitivity and specificity of the GHOISS risk tool for predicting amputation at a specified threshold score. Secondary outcomes included length of stay, need for plastic surgery, deep infection rate, time to fracture union, and functional outcome measures. Diagnostic test accuracy meta-analysis was performed using a random effects bivariate binomial model. Results. We identified 1,304 records, of which six prospective cohort studies and two retrospective cohort studies evaluating a total of 788 patients were deemed eligible for inclusion. A diagnostic test meta-analysis conducted on five cohort studies, with 474 participants, showed that GHOISS at a threshold score of 14 has a pooled sensitivity of 93.4% (95% confidence interval (CI) 78.4 to 98.2) and a specificity of 95% (95% CI 88.7 to 97.9) for predicting primary or secondary amputations in people with complex lower limb injuries. Conclusion. GHOISS is highly accurate in predicting success of limb salvage, and can inform management and predict secondary outcomes. However, there is a need for high-quality multicentre trials to confirm these findings and investigate the effectiveness of the score in children, and in predicting secondary amputations. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(1):21–28

Aims. Obtaining solid implant fixation is crucial in revision total knee arthroplasty (rTKA) to avoid aseptic loosening, a major reason for re-revision. This study aims to validate a novel grading system that quantifies implant fixation across three anatomical zones (epiphysis, metaphysis, diaphysis). Methods. Based on pre-, intra-, and postoperative assessments, the novel grading system allocates a quantitative score (0, 0.5, or 1 point) for the quality of fixation achieved in each anatomical zone. The criteria used by the algorithm to assign the score include the bone quality, the size of the bone defect, and the type of fixation used. A consecutive cohort of 245 patients undergoing rTKA from 2012 to 2018 were evaluated using the current novel scoring system and followed prospectively. In addition, 100 first-time revision cases were assessed radiologically from the original cohort and graded by three observers to evaluate the intra- and inter-rater reliability of the novel radiological grading system. Results. At a mean follow-up of 90 months (64 to 130), only two out of 245 cases failed due to aseptic loosening. Intraoperative grading yielded mean scores of 1.87 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.82 to 1.92) for the femur and 1.96 (95% CI 1.92 to 2.0) for the tibia. Only 3.7% of femoral and 1.7% of tibial reconstructions fell below the 1.5-point threshold, which included the two cases of aseptic loosening. Interobserver reliability for postoperative radiological grading was 0.97 for the femur and 0.85 for the tibia. Conclusion. A minimum score of 1.5 points for each skeletal segment appears to be a reasonable cut-off to define sufficient fixation in rTKA. There were no revisions for aseptic loosening at mid-term follow-up when this fixation threshold was achieved or exceeded. When assessing first-time revisions, this novel grading system has shown excellent intra- and interobserver reliability. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(5):468–474

Aims. It remains difficult to diagnose early postoperative periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) following total knee arthroplasty (TKA). We aimed to validate the optimal cutoff values of ESR, CRP, and synovial fluid analysis for detecting early postoperative PJI in a large series of primary TKAs. Methods. We retrospectively identified 27,066 primary TKAs performed between 2000 and 2019. Within 12 weeks, 169 patients (170 TKAs) had an aspiration. The patients were divided into two groups: those evaluated ≤ six weeks, or between six and 12 weeks postoperatively. The 2011 Musculoskeletal Infection Society (MSIS) criteria for PJI diagnosis in 22 TKAs. The mean follow-up was five years (two months to 17 years). The results were compared using medians and Mann-Whitney U tests and thresholds were analyzed using receiver operator characteristic curves. Results. Within six weeks, the median CRP (101 mg/l vs 35 mg/l; p = 0.011), synovial WBCs (58,295 cells/μl vs 2,121 cells/μl; p ≤ 0.001), percentage of synovial neutrophils (91% vs 71% (p < 0.001), and absolute synovial neutrophil count (ANC) (50,748 cells/μl vs 1,386 cells/μl (p < 0.001) were significantly higher in infected TKAs. Between six and 12 weeks, the median CRP (85 mg/l vs 5 mg/l (p < 0.001)), ESR (33 mm/hr vs 14 mm/hr (p = 0.015)), synovial WBCs (62,247 cells/μl vs 620 cells/μl (p < 0.001)), percentage of synovial neutrophils (93% vs 54% (p < 0.001)), and ANC (55,911 cells/μl vs 326 cells/μl (p < 0.001)) were also significantly higher in infected TKAs. Optimal thresholds at ≤ six weeks were: CRP ≥ 82 mg/l (sensitivity 70%, specificity 77%), synovial WBCs ≥ 8,676 cells/μl (83%, 90%), percentage of synovial neutrophils ≥ 88% (67%, 78%), and ANC ≥ 8,346 cells/μl (83%, 91%). Between six and 12 weeks, thresholds were: CRP ≥ 34 mg/l (90%, 93%), synovial WBCs ≥ 1,983 cells/μl (80%, 85%), percentage of synovial neutrophils ≥ 76% (80%, 81%), and ANC ≥ 1,684 cells/μl (80%, 87%). Conclusion. Early PJI after TKA should be suspected within six weeks if the CRP is ≥ 82 mg/l, synovial WBCs are ≥ 8,676 cells/μl, the percentage of synovial neutrophils is ≥ 88%, and/or the ANC is ≥ 8,346 cells/μl. Between six and 12 weeks, thresholds include a CRP of ≥ 34 mg/l, synovial WBC of ≥ 1,983 cells/μl, a percentage of synovial neutrophils of ≥ 76%, and/or an ANC of ≥ 1,684 cells/μl. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(6 Supple A):177–184

Aims. To compare the cost-effectiveness of high-dose, dual-antibiotic cement versus single-antibiotic cement for the treatment of displaced intracapsular hip fractures in older adults. Methods. Using data from a multicentre randomized controlled trial (World Hip Trauma Evaluation 8 (WHiTE-8)) in the UK, a within-trial economic evaluation was conducted. Resource usage was measured over 120 days post randomization, and cost-effectiveness was reported in terms of incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY), gained from the UK NHS and personal social services (PSS) perspective in the base-case analysis. Methodological uncertainty was addressed using sensitivity analysis, while decision uncertainty was handled using confidence ellipses and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. Results. The base-case analysis showed that high-dose, dual-antibiotic cement had a significantly higher mean cost (£224 (95% confidence interval (CI) -408 to 855)) and almost the same QALYs (0.001 (95% CI -0.002 to 0.003)) relative to single-antibiotic cement from the UK NHS and PSS perspective. The probability of the high-dose, dual-antibiotic cement being cost-effective was less than 0.3 at alternative cost-effectiveness thresholds, and its net monetary benefit was negative. This finding remained robust in the sensitivity analyses. Conclusion. This study shows that high-dose, dual-antibiotic cement is unlikely to be cost-effective compared to single-antibiotic cement for the treatment of displaced intracapsular hip fractures in older adults. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(10):1070–1077

Aims. This study aimed to evaluate rasterstereography of the spine as a diagnostic test for adolescent idiopathic soliosis (AIS), and to compare its results with those obtained using a scoliometer. Methods. Adolescents suspected of AIS and scheduled for radiographs were included. Rasterstereographic scoliosis angle (SA), maximal vertebral surface rotation (ROT), and angle of trunk rotation (ATR) with a scoliometer were evaluated. The area under the curve (AUC) from receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plots were used to describe the discriminative ability of the SA, ROT, and ATR for scoliosis, defined as a Cobb angle > 10°. Test characteristics (sensitivity and specificity) were reported for the best threshold identified using the Youden method. AUC of SA, ATR, and ROT were compared using the bootstrap test for two correlated ROC curves method. Results. Of 212 patients studied, 146 (69%) had an AIS. The AUC was 0.74 for scoliosis angle (threshold 12.5°, sensitivity 75%, specificity 65%), 0.65 for maximal vertebral surface rotation (threshold 7.5°, sensitivity 63%, specificity 64%), and 0.82 for angle of trunk rotation (threshold 5.5°, sensitivity 65%, specificity 80%). The AUC of ROT was significantly lower than that of ATR (p < 0.001) and SA (p < 0.001). The AUCs of ATR and SA were not significantly different (p = 0.115). Conclusion. The rasterstereographic scoliosis angle has better diagnostic characteristics than the angle of trunk rotation evaluated with a scoliometer, with similar AUCs and a higher sensitivity. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(4):431–438

Aims. The aim of this study was to estimate the incremental use of resources, costs, and quality of life outcomes associated with surgical reconstruction compared to rehabilitation for long-standing anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury in the NHS, and to estimate its cost-effectiveness. Methods. A total of 316 patients were recruited and randomly assigned to either surgical reconstruction or rehabilitation (physiotherapy but with subsequent reconstruction permitted if instability persisted after treatment). Healthcare resource use and health-related quality of life data (EuroQol five-dimension five-level health questionnaire) were collected in the trial at six, 12, and 18 months using self-reported questionnaires and medical records. Using intention-to-treat analysis, differences in costs, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) between treatment arms were estimated adjusting for baseline differences and following multiple imputation of missing data. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was estimated as the difference in costs divided by the difference in QALYs between reconstruction and rehabilitation. Results. At 18 months, patients in the surgical reconstruction arm reported higher QALYs (0.052 (95% confidence interval (CI) -0.012 to 0.117); p = 0.177) and higher NHS costs (£1,017 (95% CI 557 to 1,476); p < 0.001) compared to rehabilitation. This resulted in an ICER of £19,346 per QALY with the probability of surgical reconstruction being cost-effective of 51% and 72% at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000 and £30,000 per QALY, respectively. Conclusion. Surgical reconstruction as a management strategy for patients with long-standing ACL injury is more effective, but more expensive, at 18 months compared to rehabilitation management. In the UK setting, surgical reconstruction is cost-effective. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(1):38–45

Aims. The aim of this study was to compare the cost-effectiveness of surgical fixation with Kirschner (K-)wire ersus moulded casting after manipulation of a fracture of the distal radius in an operating theatre setting. Methods. An economic evaluation was conducted based on data collected from the Distal Radius Acute Fracture Fixation Trial 2 (DRAFFT2) multicentre randomized controlled trial in the UK. Resource use was collected at three, six, and 12 months post-randomization using trial case report forms and participant-completed questionnaires. Cost-effectiveness was reported in terms of incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained from an NHS and personal social services perspective. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the robustness of cost-effectiveness estimates, and decision uncertainty was handled using confidence ellipses and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. Results. In the base case analysis, surgical fixation with K-wire was more expensive (£29.65 (95% confidence interval (CI) -94.85 to 154.15)) and generated lower QALYs (0.007 (95% CI -0.03 to 0.016)) than moulded casting, but this difference was not statistically significant. The probability of K-wire being cost-effective at a £20,000 per QALY cost-effectiveness threshold was 24%. The cost-effectiveness results remained robust in the sensitivity analyses. Conclusion. The findings suggest that surgical fixation with K-wire is unlikely to be a cost-effective alternative to a moulded cast in adults, following manipulation of a fracture of the distal radius in a theatre setting. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(11):1225–1233

Aims. The aim of this trial was to assess the cost-effectiveness of a soft bandage and immediate discharge, compared with rigid immobilization, in children aged four to 15 years with a torus fracture of the distal radius. Methods. A within-trial economic evaluation was conducted from the UK NHS and personal social services (PSS) perspective, as well as a broader societal point of view. Health resources and quality of life (the youth version of the EuroQol five-dimension questionnaire (EQ-5D-Y)) data were collected, as part of the Forearm Recovery in Children Evaluation (FORCE) multicentre randomized controlled trial over a six-week period, using trial case report forms and patient-completed questionnaires. Costs and health gains (quality-adjusted life years (QALYs)) were estimated for the two trial treatment groups. Regression was used to estimate the probability of the new treatment being cost-effective at a range of ‘willingness-to-pay’ thresholds, which reflect a range of costs per QALY at which governments are typically prepared to reimburse for treatment. Results. The offer of a soft bandage significantly reduced cost per patient (saving £12.55 (95% confidence interval (CI) -£5.30 to £19.80)) while QALYs were similar (QALY difference between groups: 0.0013 (95% CI -0.0004 to 0.003)). The high probability (95%) that offering a bandage is a cost-effective option was consistent when examining the data in a range of sensitivity analyses. Conclusion. In addition to the known clinical equivalence, this study found that the offer of a bandage reduced cost compared with rigid immobilization among children with a torus fracture of the distal radius. While the cost saving was small for each patient, the high frequency of these injuries indicates a significant saving across the healthcare system. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(6):623–630

Aims. The aim of this study was to further evaluate the accuracy of ten promising synovial biomarkers (bactericidal/permeability-increasing protein (BPI), lactoferrin (LTF), neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL), neutrophil elastase 2 (ELA-2), α-defensin, cathelicidin LL-37 (LL-37), human β-defensin (HBD-2), human β-defensin 3 (HBD-3), D-dimer, and procalcitonin (PCT)) for the diagnosis of periprosthetic joint infection (PJI), and to investigate whether inflammatory joint disease (IJD) activity affects their concentration in synovial fluid. Methods. We included 50 synovial fluid samples from patients with (n = 25) and without (n = 25) confirmed PJI from an institutional tissue bank collected between May 2015 and December 2016. We also included 22 synovial fluid samples aspirated from patients with active IJD presenting to Department of Rheumatology, the first Medical Centre, Chinese PLA General Hospital. Concentrations of the ten candidate biomarkers were measured in the synovial fluid samples using standard enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA). The diagnostic accuracy was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Results. BPI, LTF, NGAL, ELA-2, and α-defensin were well-performing biomarkers for detecting PJI, with areas under the curve (AUCs) of 1.000 (95% confidence interval, 1.000 to 1.000), 1.000 (1.000 to 1.000), 1.000 (1.000 to 1.000), 1.000 (1.000 to 1.000), and 0.998 (0.994 to 1.000), respectively. The other markers (LL-37, HBD-2, D-dimer, PCT, and HBD-3) had limited diagnostic value. For the five well-performing biomarkers, elevated concentrations were observed in patients with active IJD. The original best thresholds determined by the Youden index, which discriminated PJI cases from non-PJI cases could not discriminate PJI cases from active IJD cases, while elevated thresholds resulted in good performance. Conclusion. BPI, LTF, NGAL, ELA-2, and α-defensin demonstrated excellent performance for diagnosing PJI. However, all five markers showed elevated concentrations in patients with IJD activity. For patients with IJD, elevated thresholds should be considered to accurately diagnose PJI. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(1):32–38

Shoulder injury related to vaccine administration (SIRVA) is a prolonged episode of shoulder dysfunction that commences within 24 to 48 hours of a vaccination. Symptoms include a combination of shoulder pain, stiffness, and weakness. There has been a recent rapid increase in reported cases of SIRVA within the literature, particularly in adults, and is likely related to the mass vaccination programmes associated with COVID-19 and influenza. The pathophysiology is not certain, but placement of the vaccination in the subdeltoid bursa or other pericapsular tissue has been suggested to result in an inflammatory capsular process. It has been hypothesized that this is associated with a vaccine injection site that is “too high” and predisposes to the development of SIRVA. Nerve conduction studies are routinely normal, but further imaging can reveal deep-deltoid collections, rotator cuff tendinopathy and tears, or subacromial subdeltoid bursitis. However, all of these are common findings within a general asymptomatic population. Medicolegal claims in the UK, based on an incorrect injection site, are unlikely to meet the legal threshold to determine liability. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(8):839–842

Aims. Despite new technologies for total knee arthroplasty (TKA), approximately 20% of patients are dissatisfied. A major reason for dissatisfaction and revision surgery after TKA is persistent pain. The radiological grade of osteoarthritis (OA) preoperatively has been investigated as a predictor of the outcome after TKA, with conflicting results. The aim of this study was to determine if there is a difference in the intensity of pain 12 months after TKA in relation to the preoperative radiological grade of OA alone, and the combination of the intensity of preoperative pain and radiological grade of OA. Methods. The preoperative data of 300 patients who underwent primary TKA were collected, including clinical information (age, sex, preoperative pain), psychological variables (depression, anxiety, pain catastrophizing, anticipated pain), and quantitative sensory testing (temporal summation, pressure pain thresholds, conditioned pain modulation). The preoperative radiological severity of OA was graded according to the Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) classification. Persistent pain in the knee was recorded 12 months postoperatively. Generalized linear models explored differences in postoperative pain according to the KL grade, and combined preoperative pain and KL grade. Relative risk models explored which preoperative variables were associated with the high preoperative pain/low KL grade group. Results. Pain 12 months after TKA was not associated with the preoperative KL grade alone. Significantly increased pain 12 months after TKA was found in patients with a combination of high preoperative pain and a low KL grade (p = 0.012). Patients in this group were significantly more likely to be male, younger, and have higher preoperative pain catastrophizing, higher depression, and lower anxiety (all p ≤ 0.05). Conclusion. Combined high preoperative pain and low radiological grade of OA, but not the radiological grade alone, was associated with a higher intensity of pain 12 months after primary TKA. This group may have a more complex cause of pain that requires additional psychological interventions in order to optimize the outcome of TKA. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(11):1202–1208

Aims. The aim of this study was to compare the cost-effectiveness of cemented hemiarthroplasty (HA) versus hydroxyapatite-coated uncemented HA for the treatment of displaced intracapsular hip fractures in older adults. Methods. A within-trial economic evaluation was conducted based on data collected from the World Hip Trauma Evaluation 5 (WHiTE 5) multicentre randomized controlled trial in the UK. Resource use was measured over 12 months post-randomization using trial case report forms and participant-completed questionnaires. Cost-effectiveness was reported in terms of incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained from the NHS and personal social service perspective. Methodological uncertainty was addressed using sensitivity analysis, while decision uncertainty was represented graphically using confidence ellipses and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. Results. The base-case analysis showed that cemented implants were cost-saving (mean cost difference -£961 (95% confidence interval (CI) -£2,292 to £370)) and increased QALYs (mean QALY difference 0.010 (95% CI 0.002 to 0.017)) when compared to uncemented implants. The probability of the cemented implant being cost-effective approximated between 95% and 97% at alternative cost-effectiveness thresholds held by decision-makers, and its net monetary benefit was positive. The findings remained robust against all the pre-planned sensitivity analyses. Conclusion. This study shows that cemented HA is cost-effective compared with hydroxyapatite-coated uncemented HA in older adults with displaced intracapsular hip fractures. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(8):922–928

Aims. The aim of this study was to identify the minimal clinically important difference (MCID), minimal important change (MIC), minimal detectable change (MDC), and patient-acceptable symptom state (PASS) threshold in the Forgotten Joint Score (FJS) according to patient satisfaction six months following total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Methods. During a one-year period 484 patients underwent a primary TKA and completed preoperative and six-month FJS and OKS. At six months patients were asked, “How satisfied are you with your operated knee?” Their response was recorded as: very satisfied, satisfied, neutral, dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied. The difference between patients recording neutral (n = 44) and satisfied (n = 153) was used to define the MCID. MIC for a cohort was defined as the change in the FJS for those patients declaring their outcome as satisfied, whereas receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was used to determine the MIC for an individual and the PASS threshold. Distribution-based methodology was used to calculate the MDC. Results. Using satisfaction as the anchor question, the MCID for the FJS was 16.6 (95% confidence interval (CIs) 8.9 to 24.3; p < 0.001) and when adjusting for confounding this decreased to 13.7 points (95% CI 4.8 to 22.5; p < 0.001). The MIC for the FJS for a cohort of patients was 17.7 points and for an individual patient was 10 points. The MDC90 for the FGS was 12 points; where 90% of patients scoring more than this will have experienced a real change that is beyond measurement error. The PASS was defined as 22 points or more in the postoperative FJS. Conclusion. The estimates for MCID and MIC can be used to assess whether there is clinical difference between two groups and whether a cohort/patient has had a meaningful change in their FJS, respectively. The MDC90 of 12 points suggests a value lower than this may fall within measurement error. A postoperative FJS of 22 or more was predictive of achieving PASS. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(5):846–854

Aims. The aim of this study was to determine if the Oxford Knee and Hip Score (OKHS) can accurately predict when a primary knee or hip referral is deemed nonsurgical versus surgical by the surgeon during their first consultation, and to identify nonsurgical OKHS screening thresholds. Patients and Methods. We retrospectively reviewed pre-consultation OKHS for all consecutive primary total knee arthroplasty (TKA) and total hip arthroplasty (THA) consultations of a single surgeon over three years. The 1436 knees (1016 patients) and 478 hips (388 patients) included were categorized based on the surgeon’s decision into those offered surgery during the first consultation versus those not (nonsurgical). Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis were performed. Results. Oxford Scores were better for the nonsurgical cohorts (p < 0.001) and correlated with the surgical decision (p < 0.001). ROC area under the curve values for knees (0.83, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.81 to 0.85) and hips (0.87, 95% CI 0.84 to 0.91) were excellent. A conservative and effective threshold for knees is Oxford Knee Score (OKS) > 32 points (sensitivity = 0.997, negative predictive value (NPV) = 0.992) and for hips is Oxford Hip Score (OHS) > 34 points (sensitivity = 0.997, NPV = 0.978). Severable potential lower OKHS thresholds were identified. Conclusion. Pre-consultation OKHS demonstrate good ability to predict when a primary TKA or THA referral will be deemed nonsurgical in a single surgeon’s practice. Multiple OKHS thresholds can effectively screen out nonsurgical referrals. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B(6 Supple B):23–30

Aims. Historically, patients undergoing surgery for adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) have been nursed postoperatively in a critical care (CC) setting because of the challenges posed by prone positioning, extensive exposures, prolonged operating times, significant blood loss, major intraoperative fluid shifts, cardiopulmonary complications, and difficulty in postoperative pain management. The primary aim of this paper was to determine whether a scoring system, which uses Cobb angle, forced vital capacity (FVC), forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1), and number of levels to be fused, is a valid method of predicting the need for postoperative critical care in AIS patients who are to undergo scoliosis correction with posterior spinal fusion (PSF). Methods. We retrospectively reviewed all AIS patients who had undergone PSF between January 2018 and January 2020 in a specialist tertiary spinal referral centre. All patients were assessed preoperatively in an anaesthetic clinic. Postoperative care was defined as ward-based (WB) or critical care (CC), based on the preoperative FEV1, FVC, major curve Cobb angle, and the planned number of instrumented levels. Results. Overall, 105 patients were enrolled. Their mean age was 15.5 years (11 to 25) with a mean weight of 55 kg (35 to 103). The mean Cobb angle was 68° (38° to 122°). Of these, 38 patients were preoperatively scored to receive postoperative CC. However, only 19% of the cohort (20/105) actually needed CC-level support. Based on these figures, and an average paediatric intensive care unit stay of one day before stepdown to ward-based care, the potential cost-saving on the first postoperative night for this cohort was over £20,000. There was no statistically significant difference between the Total Pathway Score (TPS), the numerical representation of the four factors being assessed, and the actual level of care received (p = 0.052) or the American Society of Anesthesiologists grade (p = 0.187). Binary logistic regression analysis of the TPS variables showed that the preoperative Cobb angle was the only variable which significantly predicted the need for critical care. Conclusion. Most patients undergoing posterior fusion surgery for AIS do not need critical care. Of the readily available preoperative measures, the Cobb angle is the only predictor of the need for higher levels of care, and has a threshold value of 74.5°. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(7):713–719

Aims. This study aims to assess the relationship between history of pseudotumour formation secondary to metal-on-metal (MoM) implants and periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) rate, as well as establish ESR and CRP thresholds that are suggestive of infection in these patients. We hypothesized that patients with a pseudotumour were at increased risk of infection. Methods. A total of 1,171 total hip arthroplasty (THA) patients with MoM articulations from August 2000 to March 2014 were retrospectively identified. Of those, 328 patients underwent metal artefact reduction sequence MRI and had minimum two years’ clinical follow-up, and met our inclusion criteria. Data collected included demographic details, surgical indication, laterality, implants used, history of pseudotumour, and their corresponding preoperative ESR (mm/hr) and CRP (mg/dl) levels. Multivariate logistic regression modelling was used to evaluate PJI and history of pseudotumour, and receiver operating characteristic curves were created to assess the diagnostic capabilities of ESR and CRP to determine the presence of infection in patients undergoing revision surgery. Results. The rate of PJI for all identified MoM THAs was 3.5% (41/1,171), with a mean follow-up of 10.9 years (2.0 to 20.4). Of the patients included in the final cohort, 8.2% (27/328) had PJI, with a mean follow-up of 12.2 years (2.3 to 20.4). Among this cohort, 31.1% (102/328) had a history of pseudotumour. The rate of PJI in these patients was 14.7% (15/102), which was greater than those without pseudotumour, 5.3% (12/226) (p = 0.008). Additionally, logistic regression analysis showed an association between history of pseudotumour and PJI (odds ratio 4.36 (95% confidence interval 1.77 to 11.3); p = 0.002). Optimal diagnostic cutoffs for PJI in patients with history of pseudotumour versus those without were 33.1 mm/hr and 24.5 mm/hr for ESR and 7.37 mg/dl and 1.88 mg/dl for CRP, respectively. Conclusion. Patients with history of pseudotumour secondary to MoM THA had a higher likelihood of infection than those without. While suspicion of infection should be high for these patients, ESR and CRP cutoffs published by the European Bone and Joint Infection Society may not be appropriate for patients with a history of pseudotumour, as ESR and CRP levels suggestive of PJI are likely to be higher than for those without a pseudotumour. Additional investigation, such as aspiration, is highly recommended for these patients unless clinical suspicion and laboratory markers are low. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(6):555–564

Aims. To assess how the cost-effectiveness of total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) varies with age, sex, and preoperative Oxford Hip or Knee Score (OHS/OKS); and to identify the patient groups for whom THA/TKA is cost-effective. Methods. We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis using a Markov model from a United Kingdom NHS perspective, informed by published analyses of patient-level data. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of THA and TKA in adults with hip or knee osteoarthritis compared with having no arthroplasty surgery during the ten-year time horizon. Results. THA and TKA cost < £7,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained at all preoperative scores below the absolute referral thresholds calculated previously (40 for OHS and 41 for OKS). Furthermore, THA cost < £20,000/QALY for patients with OHS of ≤ 45, while TKA was cost-effective for patients with OKS of ≤ 43, since the small improvements in quality of life outweighed the cost of surgery and any subsequent revisions. Probabilistic and one-way sensitivity analyses demonstrated that there is little uncertainty around the conclusions. Conclusion. If society is willing to pay £20,000 per QALY gained, THA and TKA are cost-effective for nearly all patients who currently undergo surgery, including all patients at and above our calculated absolute referral thresholds. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(7):950–958

Aims. The aim of this study was to review the current evidence surrounding curve type and morphology on curve progression risk in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS). Methods. A comprehensive search was conducted by two independent reviewers on PubMed, Embase, Medline, and Web of Science to obtain all published information on morphological predictors of AIS progression. Search items included ‘adolescent idiopathic scoliosis’, ‘progression’, and ‘imaging’. The inclusion and exclusion criteria were carefully defined. Risk of bias of studies was assessed with the Quality in Prognostic Studies tool, and level of evidence for each predictor was rated with the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations (GRADE) approach. In all, 6,286 publications were identified with 3,598 being subjected to secondary scrutiny. Ultimately, 26 publications (25 datasets) were included in this review. Results. For unbraced patients, high and moderate evidence was found for Cobb angle and curve type as predictors, respectively. Initial Cobb angle > 25° and thoracic curves were predictive of curve progression. For braced patients, flexibility < 28% and limited in-brace correction were factors predictive of progression with high and moderate evidence, respectively. Thoracic curves, high apical vertebral rotation, large rib vertebra angle difference, small rib vertebra angle on the convex side, and low pelvic tilt had weak evidence as predictors of curve progression. Conclusion. For curve progression, strong and consistent evidence is found for Cobb angle, curve type, flexibility, and correction rate. Cobb angle > 25° and flexibility < 28% are found to be important thresholds to guide clinical prognostication. Despite the low evidence, apical vertebral rotation, rib morphology, and pelvic tilt may be promising factors. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(4):424–432

Aims. The aim of this study was to assess the ability of morphological spinal parameters to predict the outcome of bracing in patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) and to establish a novel supine correction index (SCI) for guiding bracing treatment. Methods. Patients with AIS to be treated by bracing were prospectively recruited between December 2016 and 2018, and were followed until brace removal. In all, 207 patients with a mean age at recruitment of 12.8 years (SD 1.2) were enrolled. Cobb angles, supine flexibility, and the rate of in-brace correction were measured and used to predict curve progression at the end of follow-up. The SCI was defined as the ratio between correction rate and flexibility. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was carried out to assess the optimal thresholds for flexibility, correction rate, and SCI in predicting a higher risk of progression, defined by a change in Cobb angle of ≥ 5° or the need for surgery. Results. The baseline Cobb angles were similar (p = 0.374) in patients whose curves progressed (32.7° (SD 10.7)) and in those whose curves remained stable (31.4° (SD 6.1)). High supine flexibility (odds ratio (OR) 0.947 (95% CI 0.910 to 0.984); p = 0.006) and correction rate (OR 0.926 (95% CI 0.890 to 0.964); p < 0.001) predicted a lower incidence of progression after adjusting for Cobb angle, Risser sign, curve type, menarche status, distal radius and ulna grading, and brace compliance. ROC curve analysis identified a cut-off of 18.1% for flexibility (sensitivity 0.682, specificity 0.704) and a cut-off of 28.8% for correction rate (sensitivity 0.773, specificity 0.691) in predicting a lower risk of curve progression. A SCI of greater than 1.21 predicted a lower risk of progression (OR 0.4 (95% CI 0.251 to 0.955); sensitivity 0.583, specificity 0.591; p = 0.036). Conclusion. A higher supine flexibility (18.1%) and correction rate (28.8%), and a SCI of greater than 1.21 predicted a lower risk of progression. These novel parameters can be used as a guide to optimize the outcome of bracing. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(4):495–503

Aims. The aim of this study is to test the hypothesis that three grades of sagittal compensation for standing posture (normal, compensated, and decompensated) correlate with health-related quality of life measurements (HRQOL). Methods. A total of 50 healthy volunteers (normal), 100 patients with single-level lumbar degenerative spondylolisthesis (LDS), and 70 patients with adult to elderly spinal deformity (deformity) were enrolled. Following collection of demographic data and HRQOL measured by the Scoliosis Research Society-22r (SRS-22r), radiological measurement by the biplanar slot-scanning full body stereoradiography (EOS) system was performed simultaneously with force-plate measurements to obtain whole body sagittal alignment parameters. These parameters included the offset between the centre of the acoustic meatus and the gravity line (CAM-GL), saggital vertical axis (SVA), T1 pelvic angle (TPA), McGregor slope, C2-7 lordosis, thoracic kyphosis (TK), lumbar lordosis (LL), pelvic incidence (PI), PI-LL, sacral slope (SS), pelvic tilt (PT), and knee flexion. Whole spine MRI examination was also performed. Cluster analysis of the SRS-22r scores in the pooled data was performed to classify the subjects into three groups according to the HRQOL, and alignment parameters were then compared among the three cluster groups. Results. On the basis of cluster analysis of the SRS-22r subscores, the pooled subjects were divided into three HRQOL groups as follows: almost normal (mean 4.24 (SD 0.32)), mildly disabled (mean 3.32 (SD 0.24)), and severely disabled (mean 2.31 (SD 0.35)). Except for CAM-GL, all the alignment parameters differed significantly among the cluster groups. The threshold values of key alignment parameters for severe disability were TPA > 30°, C2-7 lordosis > 13°, PI-LL > 30°, PT > 28°, and knee flexion > 8°. Lumbar spinal stenosis was found to be associated with the symptom severity. Conclusion. This study provides evidence that the three grades of sagittal compensation in whole body alignment correlate with HRQOL scores. The compensation grades depend on the clinical diagnosis, whole body sagittal alignment, and lumbar spinal stenosis. The threshold values of key alignment parameters may be an indication for treatment. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(10):1359–1367

Aims. Intraoperative pressure sensors allow surgeons to quantify soft-tissue balance during total knee arthroplasty (TKA). The aim of this study was to determine whether using sensors to achieve soft-tissue balance was more effective than manual balancing in improving outcomes in TKA. Methods. A multicentre randomized trial compared the outcomes of sensor balancing (SB) with manual balancing (MB) in 250 patients (285 TKAs). The primary outcome measure was the mean difference in the four Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score subscales (ΔKOOS. 4. ) in the two groups, comparing the preoperative and two-year scores. Secondary outcomes included intraoperative balance data, additional patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs), and functional measures. Results. There was no significant difference in ΔKOOS. 4. between the two groups at two years (mean difference 0.4 points (95% confidence interval (CI) -4.6 to 5.4); p = 0.869), and multiple regression found that SB was not associated with a significant ΔKOOS. 4. (0.2-point increase (95% CI -5.1 to 4.6); p = 0.924). There were no significant differences between groups in other PROMs. Six-minute walking distance was significantly increased in the SB group (mean difference 29 metres; p = 0.015). Four-times as many TKAs were unbalanced in the MB group (36.8% MB vs 9.4% SB; p < 0.001). Irrespective of group assignment, no differences were found in any PROM when increasing ICPD thresholds defined balance. Conclusion. Despite improved quantitative soft-tissue balance, the use of sensors intraoperatively did not differentially improve the clinical or functional outcomes two years after TKA. These results question whether a more precisely balanced TKA that is guided by sensor data, and often achieved by more balancing interventions, will ultimately have a significant effect on clinical outcomes. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(5):604–612

Aims. The routine use of dual-mobility (DM) acetabular components in total hip arthroplasty (THA) may not be cost-effective, but an increasing number of patients undergoing THA have a coexisting spinal disorder, which increases the risk of postoperative instability, and these patients may benefit from DM articulations. This study seeks to examine the cost-effectiveness of DM components as an alternative to standard articulations in these patients. Patients and Methods. A decision analysis model was used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of using DM components in patients who would be at high risk for dislocation within one year of THA. Direct and indirect costs of dislocation, incremental costs of using DM components, quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) values, and the probabilities of dislocation were derived from published data. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was established with a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100 000/QALY. Sensitivity analysis was used to examine the impact of variation. Results. In the base case, patients with a spinal deformity were modelled to have an 8% probability of dislocation following primary THA based on published clinical ranges. Sensitivity analysis revealed that, at its current average price ($1000), DM is cost-effective if it reduces the probability of dislocation to 0.9%. The threshold cost at which DM ceased being cost-effective was $1180, while the ICER associated with a DM THA was $71 000 per QALY. Conclusion. These results indicate that under specific clinical and economic thresholds, DM components are a cost-effective form of treatment for patients with spinal deformity who are at high risk of dislocation after THA. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2018;100-B:1297–1302

Aims. We have previously demonstrated raised cobalt and chromium levels in patients with larger diameter femoral heads, following metal-on-polyethylene uncemented total hip arthroplasty. Further data have been collected, to see whether these associations have altered with time and to determine the long-term implications for these patients and our practice. Methods. Patients from our previous study who underwent Trident-Accolade primary total hip arthroplasties using a metal-on-polyethylene bearing in 2009 were reviewed. Patients were invited to have their cobalt and chromium levels retested, and were provided an Oxford Hip Score. Serum ion levels were then compared between groups (28 mm, 36 mm, and 40 mm heads) and over time. Results. Metal ion levels were repeated in 33 patients. When comparing the results of serum metal ion levels over time, regardless of head size, there was a significant increase in both cobalt and chromium levels (p < 0.001). Two patients with larger head sizes had undergone revision arthroplasty with evidence of trunnion damage at surgery. Two patients within the 40 mm subgroup had metal ion levels above the MHRA (Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency) threshold for detailed investigation. The increase in cobalt and chromium, when comparing the 36 mm and 40 mm groups with those of the 28 mm group, was not significant (36 mm vs 28 mm; p = 0.092/p = 0.191; 40 mm vs 28 mm; p = 0.200/p = 0.091, respectively). There was no difference, between femoral head sizes, when comparing outcome as measured by the Oxford Hip Score. Conclusion. This study shows an increase in cobalt and chromium levels over time for all modular femoral head sizes in patients with metal-on-polyethylene bearings, with two patients demonstrating ion levels above the MHRA threshold for failure, and a further two patients requiring revision surgery. These results may have clinical implications regarding longer term follow-up of patients and future implant choice, particularly among younger patients. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(7):832–837

Aims. The aims of this study were to assess the pre- and postoperative incidence of deep vein thrombosis (DVT) using routine duplex Doppler ultrasound (DUS), to assess the incidence of pulmonary embolism (PE) using CT angiography, and to identify the factors that predict postoperative DVT in patients with a pelvic and/or acetabular fracture. Methods. All patients treated surgically for a pelvic and/or acetabular fracture between October 2016 and January 2020 were enrolled into this prospective single-centre study. The demographic, medical, and surgical details of the patients were recorded. DVT screening of the lower limbs was routinely performed using DUS before and at six to ten days after surgery. CT angiography was used in patients who were suspected of having PE. Age-adjusted univariate and stepwise multiple logistic regression analysis were used to determine the association between explanatory variables and postoperative DVT. Results. A total of 191 patients were included. A DVT was found preoperatively in 12 patients (6.3%), of which six were proximal. A postoperative DVT was found in 42 patients (22%), of which 27 were proximal. Eight patients (4.2%) had a PE, which was secondary to a DVT in three. None of the 12 patients in whom a vena cava filter was implanted prophylactically had a PE. Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that the association with the need for spinal surgery (odds ratio (OR) 19.78 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.12 to 348.08); p = 0.041), intramedullary nailing of a long bone fracture (OR 4.44 (95% CI 1.05 to 18.86); p = 0.043), an operating time > two hours (OR 3.28 (95% CI 1.09 to 9.88); p = 0.035), and additional trauma surgery (OR 3.1 (95% CI 1.03 to 9.45); p = 0.045) were statistically the most relevant independent predictors of a postoperative DVT. Conclusion. The acknowledgement of the risk factors for the development of a DVT and their weight is crucial to set a threshold for the index of suspicion for this diagnosis by medical staff. We suggest the routine use of the DUS screening for DVT in patients with a pelvic and/or acetabular fracture before and six to ten days after surgery. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(2):283–289

Aims. It is not known whether change in patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) over time can be predicted by factors present at surgery, or early follow-up. The aim of this study was to identify factors associated with changes in PROM status between two-year evaluation and medium-term follow-up. Patients and Methods. Patients undergoing Birmingham Hip Resurfacing completed the Veteran’s Rand 36 (VR-36), modified Harris Hip Score (mHHS), Tegner Activity Score, and Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) at two years and a minimum of three years. A change in score was assessed against minimal clinically important difference (MCID) and patient-acceptable symptom state (PASS) thresholds. Binary logistic regression was used to assess the relationship between patient factors and deterioration in PASS status between follow-ups. Results. Overall, 18% of patients reported reductions in mHHS total score exceeding MCID, and 21% reported similar reductions for WOMAC function scores. Nonetheless, almost all patients remained above PASS thresholds for WOMAC function (98%) and mHHS (93%). Overall, 66% of patients with mHHS scores < PASS at two years reported scores > PASS at latest follow-up. Conversely, 6% of patients deteriorated from > PASS to < PASS between follow-ups. Multivariable modelling indicated body mass index (BMI) > 27 kg/m. 2. , VR-36 Physical Component Score (PCS) < 51, VR-36 Mental Component Score (MCS) > 55, mHHS < 84 at two years, female sex, and bone graft use predicted these deteriorating patients with 79% accuracy and an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.84. Conclusion. Due to largely acceptable results at a later follow-up, extensive monitoring of multiple PROMs is not recommended for Birmingham Hip Resurfacing patients unless they report borderline or unacceptable hip function at two years, are female, are overweight, or received a bone graft during surgery. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B:1431–1437

Aims. We investigated whether blood metal ion levels could effectively identify patients with bilateral Birmingham Hip Resurfacing (BHR) implants who have adverse reactions to metal debris (ARMD). Patients and Methods. Metal ion levels in whole blood were measured in 185 patients with bilateral BHRs. Patients were divided into those with ARMD who either had undergone a revision for ARMD or had ARMD on imaging (n = 30), and those without ARMD (n = 155). Receiver operating characteristic analysis was used to determine the optimal thresholds of blood metal ion levels for identifying patients with ARMD. Results. The maximum level of cobalt or chromium ions in the blood was the parameter which produced the highest area under the curve (91.0%). The optimal threshold for distinguishing between patients with and without ARMD was 5.5 µg/l (83.3% sensitivity, 88.4% specificity, 58.1% positive and 96.5% negative predictive values). Similar results were obtained in a subgroup of 111 patients who all underwent cross-sectional imaging. Between 3.2% and 4.3% of patients with ARMD were missed if United Kingdom (7 µg/l) and United States (10 µg/l) authority thresholds were used respectively, compared with 2.7% if our implant specific threshold was used, though these differences did not reach statistical significance (p ≥ 0.248). Conclusion. Patients with bilateral BHRs who have blood metal ion levels below our implant specific threshold were at low-risk of having ARMD. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2016;98-B:1455–62

Aims. Radiostereometric analysis (RSA) studies of vitamin E-doped, highly crosslinked polyethylene (VEPE) liners show low head penetration rates in cementless acetabular components. There is, however, currently no data on cemented VEPE acetabular components in total hip arthroplasty (THA). The aim of this study was to evaluate the safety of a new cemented VEPE component, compared with a conventional polyethylene (PE) component regarding migration, head penetration, and clinical results. Patients and Methods. We enrolled 42 patients (21 male, 21 female) with osteoarthritis and a mean age of 67 years (. sd. 5), in a double-blinded, noninferiority, randomized controlled trial. The subjects were randomized in a 1:1 ratio to receive a reverse hybrid THA with a cemented component of either argon-gas gamma-sterilized PE component (controls) or VEPE, with identical geometry. The primary endpoint was proximal implant migration of the component at two years postoperatively measured with RSA. Secondary endpoints included total migration of the component, penetration of the femoral head into the component, and patient-reported outcome measurements. Results. In total, 19 control implants and 18 implants in the VEPE group were analyzed for the primary endpoint. We found a continuous proximal migration of the component in the VEPE group that was significantly higher with a difference at two years of a mean 0.21 mm (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.05 to 0.37; p = 0.013). The total migration was also significantly higher in the VEPE group, but femoral head penetration was lower. We found no difference in clinical outcomes between the groups. Conclusion. At two years, this cemented VEPE component, although having a low head penetration and excellent clinical results, failed to meet noninferiority compared with the conventional implant by a proximal migration above the proposed safety threshold of RSA. The early proximal migration pattern of the VEPE component is a reason for continued monitoring, although a specific threshold for proximal migration and risk for later failure cannot be defined and needs further study. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B:1192–1198

Aims. The aim of the Scaphoid Waist Internal Fixation for Fractures Trial (SWIFFT) was to determine the optimal treatment for adults with a bicortical undisplaced or minimally displaced fracture of the waist of the scaphoid, comparing early surgical fixation with initial cast immobilization, with immediate fixation being offered to patients with nonunion. Methods. A cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted to assess the relative merits of these forms of treatment. The differences in costs to the healthcare system and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) of the patients over the one-year follow-up of the trial in the two treatment arms were estimated using regression analysis. Results. Our base case analysis found that patients randomized to early surgical fixation had statistically significantly higher mean costs to the NHS of £1,295 more than for the cast immobilization arm (p < 0.001), primarily due to the cost of surgery. They also had a marginally better quality of life, over the period, of 0.0158 QALYs; however, this was not statistically significant (p = 0.379). The mean combined cost per additional QALY was £81,962, well above the accepted threshold for cost-effectiveness used in the UK and internationally. The probability of early surgery being cost-effective in this setting was only 5.6%. Conclusion. Consistent with the clinical findings of SWIFFT, these results indicate that initial cast immobilization of minimally displaced scaphoid fractures, with immediate fixation only offered to patients with nonunion, is the optimal form of treatment, resulting in comparable outcomes with less cost to the healthcare system. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(7):1277–1283

Aims. The aim is to assess the cost-effectiveness of patellofemoral arthroplasty (PFA) in comparison with total knee arthroplasty (TKA) for the treatment of isolated patellofemoral osteoarthritis (OA) based on prospectively collected data on health outcomes and resource use from a blinded, randomized, clinical trial. Methods. A total of 100 patients with isolated patellofemoral osteoarthritis were randomized to receive either PFA or TKA by experienced knee surgeons trained in using both implants. Patients completed patient-reported outcomes including EuroQol five-dimension questionnaire (EQ-5D) and 6-Item Short-Form Health Survey questionnaire (SF-6D) before the procedure. The scores were completed again after six weeks, three, six, and nine months, and again after one- and two-year post-surgery and yearly henceforth. Time-weighted outcome measures were constructed. Cost data were obtained from clinical registrations and patient-reported questionnaires. Incremental gain in health outcomes (quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs)) and incremental costs were compared for the two groups of patients. Net monetary benefit was calculated assuming a threshold value of €10,000, €35,000, and €50,000 per QALY and used to test the statistical uncertainty and central assumptions about outcomes and costs. Results. The PFA group had an incremental 12 month EQ-5D gain of 0.056 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.01 to 0.10) and an incremental 12 month cost of minus €328 (95% CI 836 to 180). PFA therefore dominates TKA by providing better and cheaper outcomes than TKA. The net monetary benefit of PFA was €887 (95% CI 324 to 1450) with the €10,000 threshold, and it was consistently positive when different measures of outcomes and different cost assumptions were used. Conclusion. This study provides robust evidence that PFA from a one-year hospital management perspective is cheaper and provides better outcomes than TKA when applied to patients with isolated patellofemoral osteoarthritis and performed by experienced knee surgeons. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(4):449–457

Aims. The pre-operative level of haemoglobin is the strongest predictor of the peri-operative requirement for blood transfusion after total knee arthroplasty (TKA). There are, however, no studies reporting a value that could be considered to be appropriate pre-operatively. . This study aimed to identify threshold pre-operative levels of haemoglobin that would predict the requirement for blood transfusion in patients who undergo TKA. . Patients and Methods. Analysis of receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves of 2284 consecutive patients undergoing unilateral TKA was used to determine gender specific thresholds predicting peri-operative transfusion with the highest combined sensitivity and specificity (area under ROC curve 0.79 for males; 0.78 for females). Results. Threshold levels of 13.75 g/dl for males and 12.75 g/dl for females were identified. The rates of transfusion in males and females, respectively above these levels were 3.37% and 7.11%, while below these levels, they were 16.13% and 28.17%. Pre-operative anaemia increased the rate of transfusion by 6.38 times in males and 6.27 times in females. Blood transfusion was associated with an increased incidence of early post-operative confusion (odds ratio (OR) = 3.44), cardiac arrhythmia (OR = 5.90), urinary catheterisation (OR = 1.60), the incidence of deep infection (OR = 4.03) and mortality (OR = 2.35) one year post-operatively, and increased length of stay (eight days vs six days, p < 0.001). . Conclusion. Uncorrected low pre-operative levels of haemoglobin put patients at potentially modifiable risk and attempts should be made to correct this before TKA. Target thresholds for the levels of haemoglobin pre-operatively in males and females are proposed. Take home message: Low pre-operative haemoglobin levels put patients at unnecessary risk and should be corrected prior to surgery. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2016;98-B:490–7

Aims. The best marker for assessing glycaemic control prior to total knee arthroplasty (TKA) remains unknown. The purpose of this study was to assess the utility of fructosamine compared with glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) in predicting early complications following TKA, and to determine the threshold above which the risk of complications increased markedly. Patients and Methods. This prospective multi-institutional study evaluated primary TKA patients from four academic institutions. Patients (both diabetics and non-diabetics) were assessed using fructosamine and HbA1c levels within 30 days of surgery. Complications were assessed for 12 weeks from surgery and included prosthetic joint infection (PJI), wound complication, re-admission, re-operation, and death. The Youden’s index was used to determine the cut-off for fructosamine and HbA1c associated with complications. Two additional cut-offs for HbA1c were examined: 7% and 7.5% and compared with fructosamine as a predictor for complications. Results. Overall, 1119 patients (441 men, 678 women) were included in the study. Fructosamine level of 293 µmol/l was identified as the optimal cut-off associated with complications. Patients with high fructosamine (> 293 µmol/l) were 11.2 times more likely to develop PJI compared with patients with low fructosamine (p = 0.001). Re-admission and re-operation rates were 4.2 and 4.5 times higher in patients with fructosamine above the threshold (p = 0.005 and p = 0.019, respectively). One patient (1.7%) from the elevated fructosamine group died compared with one patient (0.1%) in the normal fructosamine group (p = 0.10). These complications remained statistically significant in multiple regression analysis. Unlike fructosamine, all three cut-offs for HbA1c failed to show a significant association with complications. Conclusion. Fructosamine is a valid and an excellent predictor of complications following TKA. It better reflects the glycaemic control, has greater predictive power for adverse events, and responds quicker to treatment compared with HbA1c. These findings support the screening of all patients undergoing TKA using fructosamine and in those with a level above 293 µmol/l, the risk of surgery should be carefully weighed against its benefit. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B(7 Supple C):3–9

Aims. The migration percentage (MP) is one criterion used for surgery in dislocated or displaced hips in children with cerebral palsy (CP). The MP at which a displaced hip can no longer return to normal is unclear. The aim of this paper was to identify the point of no return of the MP through a large population-based study. Methods. All children registered on the Cerebral Palsy Integrated Pathway Scotland surveillance programme undergo regular pelvic radiographs. Any child who had a MP measuring over 35% since the programme’s inception in 2013, in at least one hip and at one timepoint, was identified. The national radiography database was then interrogated to identify all pelvic radiographs for each of these children from birth through to the date of analysis. A minimum of a further two available radiographs following the initial measurement of MP ≥ 35% was required for inclusion. Results. A total of 239 children (346 hips) were identified as suitable for analysis at a mean of 6.5 years (2.0 to 14.8) follow-up. In all, 1,485 radiographs taken both prior to and after a hip had a MP ≥ 35% were examined and the MP measured to identify any progression of displacement. Interrogation of the data identified that hips with a MP up to 46% returned to a MP below 40% without intervention, and all hips with a MP equal to or greater than 46% displaced further and the MP did not return to the normal range. Statistical analysis showed the result to be 98% specific with this degree of certainty that hips reaching a MP ≥ 46% would not spontaneously regress. Conclusion. These findings are clinically relevant in showing that it may be reasonable to continue to monitor hips with a MP not exceeding 46%. This threshold will also guide referral for further management of a displacing hip. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(2):411–414

Aims. The aims of this study were to investigate any possible relationship between a preoperative sensitivity to pain and the degree of pain at rest and on exertion with postoperative function in patients who underwent stemless total shoulder arthroplasty (TSA). Patients and Methods. In this prospective study, we included 63 patients who underwent stemless TSA and were available for evaluation one year postoperatively. There were 31 women and 32 men; their mean age was 71 years (53 to 89). The pain threshold, which was measured using a Pain Matcher (PM) unit, the degree of pain (visual analogue scale at rest and on exertion, and function using the short version of the Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand questionnaire (QuickDASH), were recorded preoperatively, as well as three and 12 months postoperatively. Results. We found an inverse relationship between both the preoperative PM threshold and pain (VAS) at rest and the 12-month postoperative QuickDASH score (Pearson correlation coefficient (r) ≥ 0.4, p < 0.05). A linear regression analysis showed that the preoperative PM threshold on the affected side and preoperative pain (VAS) at rest were the only factors associated with the QuickDASH score at 12 months. Conclusion. These findings indicate the importance of central sensitization in the restoration of function after TSA. Further studies are required to investigate whether extra analgesia and rehabilitation could influence the outcome in at risk patients. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2018;100-B:480–4

Aims. Recent improvements in surgical technique and perioperative blood management after total joint replacement (TJR) have decreased rates of transfusion. However, as many surgeons transition to outpatient TJR, obtaining routine postoperative blood tests becomes more challenging. Therefore, we sought to determine if a preoperative outpatient assessment tool that stratifies patients based on numerous medical comorbidities could predict who required postoperative haemoglobin (Hb) measurement. Methods. We performed a prospective study of consecutive unilateral primary total knee arthroplasties (TKAs) and total hip arthroplasties (THAs) performed at a single institution. Prospectively collected data included preoperative and postoperative Hb levels, need for blood transfusion, length of hospital stay, and Outpatient Arthroplasty Risk Assessment (OARA) score. Results. A total of 504 patients met inclusion criteria. Mean age at time of arthroplasty was 65.3 years (SD 10.2). Of the patients, 216 (42.9%) were THAs and 288 (57.1%) were TKAs. Six patients required a blood transfusion postoperatively (1.19%). Transfusion after surgery was associated with lower postoperative day 1 Hb (median of 8.5 (interquartile range (IQR) 7.9 to 8.6) vs 11.3 (IQR 10.4 to 12.2); p < 0.001), longer length of stay (1 day (IQR 1 to 1) vs 2 days (IQR 2 to 3); p < 0.001), higher OARA score (median of 60.0 (IQR 40 to 75) vs 5.0 (IQR 0-35); p = 0.001), and total hip arthroplasty (p < 0.001). All patients who received a transfusion had an OARA score > 34; however, this did not reach statistical significance as a screening threshold. Conclusion. Risk of blood transfusion after primary TJR was uncommon in our series, with an incidence of 1.19%. Transfusion was associated with OARA scores > 60. The OARA score, not American Society of Anesthesiologists grade, reliably identified patients at risk for postoperative blood transfusion. Selective Hb monitoring may result in substantial cost savings in the era of cost containment. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(1):65–70

Aims. Accurate estimations of the risk of fracture due to metastatic bone disease in the femur is essential in order to avoid both under-treatment and over-treatment of patients with an impending pathological fracture. The purpose of the current retrospective in vivo study was to use CT-based finite element analyses (CTFEA) to identify a clear quantitative differentiating factor between patients who are at imminent risk of fracturing their femur and those who are not, and to identify the exact location of maximal weakness where the fracture is most likely to occur. Methods. Data were collected on 82 patients with femoral metastatic bone disease, 41 of whom did not undergo prophylactic fixation. A total of 15 had a pathological fracture within six months following the CT scan, and 26 were fracture-free during the five months following the scan. The Mirels score and strain fold ratio (SFR) based on CTFEA was computed for all patients. A SFR value of 1.48 was used as the threshold for a pathological fracture. The sensitivity, specificity, positive, and negative predicted values for Mirels score and SFR predictions were computed for nine patients who fractured and 24 who did not, as well as a comparison of areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC of the ROC curves). Results. The sensitivity of SFR was 100% compared with 88% for the Mirels score, and the specificity of SFR was 67% compared with 38% for the Mirels score. The AUC was 0.905 for SFR compared with 0.578 for the Mirels score (p = 0.008). Conclusion. All the patients who sustained a pathological fracture of the femur had an SFR of > 1.48. CTFEA was far better at predicting the risk of fracture and its location accurately compared with the Mirels score. CTFEA is quick and automated and can be incorporated into the protocol of CT scanners. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(5):638–645

Aims. This study aimed to determine the diagnostic performance of radiographic criteria to detect aseptic acetabular loosening after revision total hip arthroplasty (THA). Secondary aims were to determine the predictive values of different thresholds of migration and to determine the predictive values of radiolucency criteria. Patients and Methods. Acetabular component migration to re-revision was measured retrospectively using Ein-Bild-Rontgen-Analyse (EBRA-Cup) and manual measurements (Sutherland method) in two groups: Group A, 52 components (48 patients) found not loose at re-revision and Group B, 42 components (36 patients) found loose at re-revision between 1980 and 2015. The presence and extent of radiolucent lines was also assessed. Results. Using EBRA, both proximal translation and sagittal rotation were excellent diagnostic tests for detecting aseptic loosening. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves was 0.94 and 0.93, respectively. The thresholds of 2.5 mm proximal translation or 2° sagittal rotation (EBRA) in combination with radiolucency criteria had a sensitivity of 93% and specificity of 88% to detect aseptic loosening. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value (NPV) of radiolucency criteria were 41%, 100%, 100% and 68% respectively. Manual measurements of both proximal translation and sagittal rotation were very good diagnostic tests. The area under the ROC curve was 0.86 and 0.92 respectively. However, manual measurements had a decreased specificity compared with EBRA. Radiolucency criteria had a poor sensitivity and NPV of 41% and 68% respectively. Conclusion. This study shows that EBRA and manual migration measurements can be used as accurate diagnostic tools to detect aseptic loosening of cementless acetabular components used at revision THA. Radiolucency criteria should not be used in isolation to exclude loosening of cementless acetabular components used at revision THA given their poor sensitivity and NPV. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2017;99-B:458–64