Aims. With novel promising therapies potentially limiting progression of Dupuytren’s disease (DD), better patient stratification is needed. We aimed to quantify DD development and progression after seven years in a population-based cohort, and to identify factors predictive of disease development or progression. Methods. All surviving participants from our previous prevalence study were invited to participate in the current prospective cohort study. Participants were examined for presence of DD and Iselin’s classification was applied. They were asked to complete comprehensive questionnaires. Disease progression was defined as advancement to a further Iselin stage or surgery. Potential predictive factors were assessed using multivariable regression analyses. Of 763 participants in our original study, 398 were available for further investigation seven years later. Results. We identified 143/398 (35.9%) participants with DD, of whom 56 (39.2%) were newly diagnosed. Overall, 20/93 (21.5%) previously affected participants had disease progression, while 6/93 (6.5%) patients showed disease regression. Disease progression occurred more often in patients who initially had advanced disease. Multivariable regression analyses revealed that both ectopic lesions and a positive family history of DD are independent predictors of disease progression. Previous hand injury predicts development of DD. Conclusion. Disease progression occurred in 21.5% of DD patients in our study. The higher the initial disease stage, the greater the proportion of participants who had disease progression at follow-up. Both ectopic lesions and a positive family history of DD predict disease progression. These patient-specific factors may be used to identify patients who might benefit from treatment that prevents progression. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(4):704–710

Aims. The aim of this study was to estimate time to arthroplasty among patients with hip and knee osteoarthritis (OA), and to identify factors at enrolment to first-line intervention that are prognostic for progression to surgery. Methods. In this longitudinal register-based observational study, we identified 72,069 patients with hip and knee OA in the Better Management of Patients with Osteoarthritis Register (BOA), who were referred for first-line OA intervention, between May 2008 and December 2016. Patients were followed until the first primary arthroplasty surgery before 31 December 2016, stratified into a hip and a knee OA cohort. Data were analyzed with Kaplan-Meier and multivariable-adjusted Cox regression. Results. At five years, Kaplan-Meier estimates showed that 46% (95% confidence interval (CI) 44.6 to 46.9) of those with hip OA, and 20% (95% CI 19.7 to 21.0) of those with knee OA, had progressed to arthroplasty. The strongest prognostic factors were desire for surgery (hazard ratio (HR) hip 3.12 (95% CI 2.95 to 3.31), HR knee 2.72 (95% CI 2.55 to 2.90)), walking difficulties (HR hip 2.20 (95% CI 1.97 to 2.46), HR knee 1.95 (95% CI 1.73 to 2.20)), and frequent pain (HR hip 1.56 (95% CI 1.40 to 1.73), HR knee 1.77 (95% CI 1.58 to 2.00)). In hip OA, the probability of progression to surgery was lower among those with comorbidities (e.g. ≥ four conditions; HR 0.64 (95% CI 0.59 to 0.69)), with no detectable effects in the knee OA cohort. Instead, being overweight or obese increased the probability of OA progress in the knee cohort (HR 1.25 (95% CI 1.15 to 1.37)), but not among those with hip OA. Conclusion. Patients with hip OA progressed faster and to a greater extent to arthroplasty than patients with knee OA. Progression was strongly influenced by patients’ desire for surgery and by factors related to severity of OA symptoms, but factors not directly related to OA symptoms are also of importance. However, a large proportion of patients with OA do not seem to require surgery within five years, especially among those with knee OA. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(7):792–800

Aims. The aim of this study was to review the current evidence surrounding curve type and morphology on curve progression risk in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS). Methods. A comprehensive search was conducted by two independent reviewers on PubMed, Embase, Medline, and Web of Science to obtain all published information on morphological predictors of AIS progression. Search items included ‘adolescent idiopathic scoliosis’, ‘progression’, and ‘imaging’. The inclusion and exclusion criteria were carefully defined. Risk of bias of studies was assessed with the Quality in Prognostic Studies tool, and level of evidence for each predictor was rated with the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations (GRADE) approach. In all, 6,286 publications were identified with 3,598 being subjected to secondary scrutiny. Ultimately, 26 publications (25 datasets) were included in this review. Results. For unbraced patients, high and moderate evidence was found for Cobb angle and curve type as predictors, respectively. Initial Cobb angle > 25° and thoracic curves were predictive of curve progression. For braced patients, flexibility < 28% and limited in-brace correction were factors predictive of progression with high and moderate evidence, respectively. Thoracic curves, high apical vertebral rotation, large rib vertebra angle difference, small rib vertebra angle on the convex side, and low pelvic tilt had weak evidence as predictors of curve progression. Conclusion. For curve progression, strong and consistent evidence is found for Cobb angle, curve type, flexibility, and correction rate. Cobb angle > 25° and flexibility < 28% are found to be important thresholds to guide clinical prognostication. Despite the low evidence, apical vertebral rotation, rib morphology, and pelvic tilt may be promising factors. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(4):424–432

Aims. Rotational acetabular osteotomy (RAO) has been reported to be effective in improving symptoms and preventing osteoarthritis (OA) progression in patients with mild to severe develomental dysplasia of the hip (DDH). However, some patients develop secondary OA even when the preoperative joint space is normal; determining who will progress to OA is difficult. We evaluated whether the preoperative cartilage condition may predict OA progression following surgery using T2 mapping MRI. Methods. We reviewed 61 hips with early-stage OA in 61 patients who underwent RAO for DDH. They underwent preoperative and five-year postoperative radiological analysis of the hip. Those with a joint space narrowing of more than 1 mm were considered to have 'OA progression'. Preoperative assessment of articular cartilage was also performed using 3T MRI with the T2 mapping technique. The region of interest was defined as the weightbearing portion of the acetabulum and femoral head. Results. There were 16 patients with postoperative OA progression. The T2 values of the centre to the anterolateral region of the acetabulum and femoral head in the OA progression cases were significantly higher than those in patients without OA progression. The preoperative T2 values in those regions were positively correlated with the narrowed joint space width. The receiver operating characteristic analysis revealed that the T2 value of the central portion in the acetabulum provided excellent discrimination, with OA progression patients having an area under the curve of 0.858. Furthermore, logistic regression analysis showed T2 values of the centre to the acetabulum’s anterolateral portion as independent predictors of subsequent OA progression (p < 0.001). Conclusion. This was the first study to evaluate the relationship between intra-articular degeneration using T2 mapping MRI and postoperative OA progression. Our findings suggest that preoperative T2 values of the hip can be better prognostic factors for OA progression than radiological measures following RAO. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(9):1472–1478

Aims. The aim of this study was to assess whether supine flexibility predicts the likelihood of curve progression in patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) undergoing brace treatment. Methods. This was a retrospective analysis of patients with AIS prescribed with an underarm brace between September 2008 to April 2013 and followed up until 18 years of age or required surgery. Patients with structural proximal curves that preclude underarm bracing, those who were lost to follow-up, and those who had poor compliance to bracing (<16 hours a day) were excluded. The major curve Cobb angle, curve type, and location were measured on the pre-brace standing posteroanterior (PA) radiograph, supine whole spine radiograph, initial in-brace standing PA radiograph, and the post-brace weaning standing PA radiograph. Validation of the previous in-brace Cobb angle regression model was performed. The outcome of curve progression post-bracing was tested using a logistic regression model. The supine flexibility cut-off for curve progression was analyzed with receiver operating characteristic curve. Results. A total of 586 patients with mean age of 12.6 years (SD 1.2) remained for analysis after exclusion. The baseline Cobb angle was similar for thoracic major curves (31.6° (SD 3.8°)) and lumbar major curves (30.3° (SD 3.7°)). Curve progression was more common in the thoracic curves than lumbar curves with mean final Cobb angles of 40.5° (SD 12.5°) and 31.8° (SD 9.8°) respectively. This dataset matched the prediction model for in-brace Cobb angle with less mean absolute error in thoracic curves (0.61) as compared to lumbar curves (1.04). Reduced age and Risser stage, thoracic curves, increased pre-brace Cobb angle, and reduced correction and flexibility rates predicted increased likelihood of curve progression. Flexibility rate of more than 28% has likelihood of preventing curve progression with bracing. Conclusion. Supine radiographs provide satisfactory prediction for in-brace correction and post-bracing curve magnitude. The flexibility of the curve is a guide to determine the likelihood for brace success. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(2):254–260

Aims. To investigate the risk factors for progression of articular cartilage damage after anatomical anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction. Patients and Methods. A total of 174 patients who underwent second-look arthroscopic evaluation after anatomical ACL reconstruction were enrolled in this study. The graded condition of the articular cartilage at the time of ACL reconstruction was compared with that at second-look arthroscopy. Age, gender, body mass index (BMI), ACL reconstruction technique, meniscal conditions, and other variables were assessed by regression analysis as risk factors for progression of damage to the articular cartilage. Results. In the medial compartment, multivariable logistic regression analysis indicated that partial medial meniscectomy (odds ratio (OR) 6.82, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.11 to 22.04, p = 0.001), pivot-shift test grade at the final follow-up (OR 3.53, CI 1.39 to 8.96, p = 0.008), BMI (OR 1.15, CI 1.03 to 1.28, p = 0.015) and medial meniscal repair (OR 3.19, CI 1.24 to 8.21, p = 0.016) were significant risk factors for progression of cartilage damage. In the lateral compartment, partial lateral meniscectomy (OR 10.94, CI 4.14 to 28.92, p < 0.001) and side-to-side differences in anterior knee laxity at follow-up (OR 0.63, p = 0.001) were significant risk factors. Conclusion. Partial meniscectomy was found to be strongly associated with the progression of articular cartilage damage despite r anatomical ACL reconstruction. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2018;100-B:285–93

Although the association between femoroacetabular impingement and osteoarthritis is established, it is not yet clear which hips have the greatest likelihood to progress rapidly to end-stage disease. We investigated the effect of several radiological parameters, each indicative of a structural aspect of the hip joint, on the progression of osteoarthritis. Pairs of plain anteroposterior pelvic radiographs, taken at least ten years apart, of 43 patients (43 hips) with a pistol-grip deformity of the femur and mild (Tönnis grade 1) or moderate (Tönnis grade 2) osteoarthritis were reviewed. Of the 43 hips, 28 showed evidence of progression of osteoarthritis. There was no significant difference in the prevalence of progression between hips with initial Tönnis grade 1 or grade 2 osteoarthritis (p = 0.31). Comparison of the hips with and without progression of arthritis revealed a significant difference in the mean medial proximal femoral angle (81° vs 87°, p = 0.004) and the presence of the posterior wall sign (39% vs 7%, p = 0.02) only. A logistic regression model was constructed to predict the influence of these two variables in the development of osteoarthritis. Mild to moderate osteoarthritis in hips with a pistol-grip deformity will not progress rapidly in all patients. In one-third, progression will take more than ten years to manifest, if ever. The individual geometry of the proximal femur and acetabulum partly influences this phenomenon. A hip with cam impingement is not always destined for end-stage arthritic degeneration

Aims

The aim of this study was to analyze how proximal radial neck resorption (PRNR) starts and progresses radiologically in two types of press-fit radial head arthroplasties (RHAs), and to investigate its clinical relevance.

Aims. Our aim was to develop and validate nomograms that would predict the cumulative incidence of sarcoma-specific death (CISSD) and disease progression (CIDP) in patients with localized high-grade primary central and dedifferentiated chondrosarcoma. Methods. The study population consisted of 391 patients from two international sarcoma centres (development cohort) who had undergone definitive surgery for a localized high-grade (histological grade II or III) conventional primary central chondrosarcoma or dedifferentiated chondrosarcoma. Disease progression captured the first event of either metastasis or local recurrence. An independent cohort of 221 patients from three additional hospitals was used for external validation. Two nomograms were internally and externally validated for discrimination (c-index) and calibration plot. Results. In the development cohort, the CISSD at ten years was 32.9% (95% confidence interval (CI) 19.8% to 38.4%). Age at diagnosis, grade, and surgical margin were found to have significant effects on CISSD and CIDP in multivariate analyses. Maximum tumour diameter was also significantly associated with CISSD. In the development cohort, the c-indices for CISSD and CIDP at five years were 0.743 (95% CI 0.700 to 0.819) and 0.761 (95% CI 0.713 to 0.800), respectively. When applied to the validation cohort, the c-indices for CISSD and CIDP at five years were 0.839 (95% CI 0.763 to 0.916) and 0.749 (95% CI 0.672 to 0.825), respectively. The calibration plots for these two nomograms demonstrated good fit. Conclusion. Our nomograms performed well on internal and external validation and can be used to predict CISSD and CIDP after resection of localized high-grade conventional primary central and dedifferentiated chondrosarcomas. They provide a new tool with which clinicians can assess and advise individual patients about their prognosis. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(12):1752–1759

The aim of this study was to investigate genetic influences on the development and progression of tears of the rotator cuff. From a group of siblings of patients with a tear of the rotator cuff and of controls studied five years earlier, we determined the prevalence of tears of the rotator cuff with and without associated symptoms using ultrasound and the Oxford Shoulder Score. In the five years since the previous assessment, three of 62 (4.8%) of the sibling group and one of the 68 (1.5%) controls had undergone shoulder surgery. These subjects were excluded from the follow-up. Full-thickness tears were found in 39 of 62 (62.9%) siblings and in 15 of 68 (22.1%) controls (p = 0.0001). The relative risk of full-thickness tears in siblings as opposed to controls was 2.85 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.75 to 4.64), compared to 2.42 (95% CI 1.77 to 3.31) five years earlier. Full-thickness tears associated with pain were found in 30 of 39 (76.9%) tears in the siblings and in eight of 15 (53.3%) tears in the controls (p = 0.045). The relative risk of pain associated with a full-thickness tear in the siblings as opposed to the controls was 1.44 (95% CI 2.04 to 8.28) (p = 0.045). In the siblings group ten of 62 (16.1%) had progressed in terms of tear size or development compared to one of 68 (1.5%) in the control group which had increased in size. Full-thickness rotator cuff tears in siblings are significantly more likely to progress over a period of five years than in a control population. This implies that genetic factors have a role, not only in the development but also in the progression of full-thickness tears of the rotator cuff

We investigated the changes seen on serial metal artefact reduction magnetic resonance imaging scans (MARS-MRI) of metal-on-metal total hip arthroplasties (MoM THAs). In total 155 THAs, in 35 male and 100 female patients (mean age 70.4 years, 42 to 91), underwent at least two MRI scans at a mean interval of 14.6 months (2.6 to 57.1), at a mean of 48.2 months (3.5 to 93.3) after primary hip surgery. Scans were graded using a modification of the Oxford classification. Progression of disease was defined as an increase in grade or a minimum 10% increase in fluid lesion volume at second scan. A total of 16 hips (30%) initially classified as ‘normal’ developed an abnormality on the second scan. Of those with ‘isolated trochanteric fluid’ 9 (47%) underwent disease progression, as did 7 (58%) of ‘effusions’. A total of 54 (77%) of hips initially classified as showing adverse reactions to metal debris (ARMD) progressed, with higher rates of progression in higher grades. Disease progression was associated with high blood cobalt levels or an irregular pseudocapsule lining at the initial scan. There was no association with changes in functional scores. Adverse reactions to metal debris in MoM THAs may not be as benign as previous reports have suggested. Close radiological follow-up is recommended, particularly in high-risk groups. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2015;97-B:1328–37

We determined the frequency, rate and extent of development of scoliosis (coronal plane deformity) in wheelchair-dependent patients with Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) who were not receiving steroid treatment. We also assessed kyphosis and lordosis (sagittal plane deformity). The extent of scoliosis was assessed on sitting anteroposterior (AP) spinal radiographs in 88 consecutive non-ambulatory patients with DMD. Radiographs were studied from the time the patients became wheelchair-dependent until the time of spinal fusion, or the latest assessment if surgery was not undertaken. Progression was estimated using a longitudinal mixed-model regression analysis to handle repeated measurements. Scoliosis ≥ 10° occurred in 85 of 88 patients (97%), ≥ 20° in 78 of 88 (89%) and ≥ 30° in 66 of 88 patients (75%). The fitted longitudinal model revealed that time in a wheelchair was a highly significant predictor of the magnitude of the curve, independent of the age of the patient (p <  0.001). Scoliosis developed in virtually all DMD patients not receiving steroids once they became wheelchair-dependent, and the degree of deformity deteriorated over time. In general, scoliosis increased at a constant rate, beginning at the time of wheelchair-dependency (p < 0.001). In some there was no scoliosis for as long as three years after dependency, but scoliosis then developed and increased at a constant rate. Some patients showed a rapid increase in the rate of progression of the curve after a few years – the clinical phenomenon of a rapidly collapsing curve over a few months. A sagittal plane kyphotic deformity was seen in 37 of 60 patients (62%) with appropriate radiographs, with 23 (38%) showing lumbar lordosis (16 (27%) abnormal and seven (11%) normal). This study provides a baseline to assess the effects of steroids and other forms of treatment on the natural history of scoliosis in patients with DMD, and an approach to assessing spinal deformity in the coronal and sagittal planes in wheelchair-dependent patients with other neuromuscular disorders. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2014;96-B:100–5

In order to evaluate the relationship between acetabular and proximal femoral alignment in the initiation and evolution of osteoarthritis of the dysplastic hip, the acetabular and femoral angles were calculated geometrically from radiographs of 62 patients with pre-arthrosis and early osteoarthritis. The sum of the lateral opening angle of the acetabulum and the neck-shaft angle was defined as the lateral instability index (LII), and the sum of the anterior opening angle of the acetabulum and the anteversion angle of the femoral neck as the anterior instability index (AII). These two indices were compared in dysplastic and unaffected hips. A total of 22 unilateral hips with pre-arthrosis were followed for at least 15 years to determine whether the two indices were associated with the progression of osteoarthritis. The LII of the affected hips (197.4 (. sd. 6.0)) was significantly greater than that of the unaffected hips (1830 (. sd. 6.9)). A follow-up study of 22 hips with pre-arthrosis showed that only the LII was associated with progression of the disease, and an LII of 196 was the threshold value for this progression

We have investigated the factors which affect the progression of osteoarthritis after rotational acetabular osteotomy (RAO). Between 1984 and 1998, we treated 60 dysplastic hips by RAO. The mean age at surgery was 31.6 years (13 to 51) and the mean period of follow-up was 4.6 years (2 to 9.5). The thickness of the articular cartilage on the weight-bearing area, pre- and postoperative acetabular cover, and the sphericity of the femoral head were used for radiological assessment. The osteoarthritis did not progress in 39 hips. Significant factors which affected the radiological grade included sphericity of the femoral head and the postoperative acetabular cover. The surgical approach and preoperative acetabular cover did not affect the progression of osteoarthritis. Patients were divided into two groups according to the surgical approach used, either conventional (23 hips) or modified (37 hips). Significant factors included the postoperative acetabular cover in the modified approach, and the sphericity of the femoral head in the conventional approach. It is critical that the postoperative cover is sufficient, especially when RAO is carried out using our modified technique

Recent surveys have shown that idiopathic structural scoliosis of mild degree is generally not progressive. We will propose a mechanism which may be responsible for deterioration in the few. It has been observed that the spinal cord, although displaced towards the concavity, does not rotate in company with the vertebrae, thus exposing the emerging nerve roots to the effects of traction and possibly of entrapment. We suggest that progression occurs when the neuraxis is unable to adjust to the change in the anatomy of vertebral column. Our proposition is based upon our findings in a complete spinal column obtained from a baby with structural scoliosis. Support is provided by intercostal angiography, and by observations upon normal anatomy, the pathological anatomy of mature scoliotic spines and the anatomy of contrived scoliosis in normal spines. Although our histological and electrophysiological investigations are incomplete we can demonstrate a significant increase in degenerate cells in the dorsal root ganglia at the apex on the convex side. Lack of suitable necropsy material prevents us from confirming our observations so that our report is inevitably preliminary. We enter a plea that careful examination of the neuraxis be undertaken whenever a specimen of a scoliotic spine becomes available

A consecutive series of 85 patients with Duchenne’s muscular dystrophy who underwent spinal fusion over a period of 16 years was followed up with regard to the progression of the scoliosis and pelvic obliquity. Of 74 patients with adequate radiographic follow-up, 55 were instrumented with the Luque single-unit rod system and 19 with the Isola pedicle screw system; seven were instrumented to L3/4, 42 to L5, 15 to S1 and 10 to the pelvis with intrailiac rods. The mean period of follow-up was 49 months (SD 22) before and 47 months (SD 24) after operation. There was one peri-operative death and three cases of failure of hardware. The mean improvement in the Cobb angle was 26° and in pelvic obliquity, 9.2°. Fusion to L3/4 achieved a poorer correction of both curves while intrapelvic rods, achieved and maintained the best correction of pelvic obliquity. Fusion to S1 did not provide any benefit over more proximal fusion excluding the sacrum, with regard to correction and maintenance of both angles. The Isola system appeared to provide and maintain a slightly better correction of the Cobb angle

In a prospective seven-year study, we treated 32 patients with partial ruptures of the anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) verified by arthroscopy. Twelve knees (38%) progressed to complete ACL deficiency with positive pivot shift tests and increased anteroposterior translation on tests with the KT-1000 arthrometer. Patients with partial ACL tears frequently had limitation for strenuous sports, while those developing ACL deficiency had additional functional limitations involving recreational activities. Three factors were statistically significant in predicting which partial tears would develop complete ACL deficiency: the amount of ligament tearing--one-fourth tears infrequently progressed, one-half tears progressed in 50% and three-fourth tears in 86%; a subtle increase in initial anterior translation; and the occurrence of a subsequent re-injury with giving-way.

We performed open acromioplasty for intractable impingement syndrome on 96 shoulders (93 patients) with an intact rotator cuff. All the shoulders were examined by ultrasound after a mean interval of nine years. Those showing pathological findings, a poor or fair subjective result, or deterioration of the primary excellent outcome had MRI and/or arthrography.

The mean Constant score for the affected shoulders was 70 points and that for 48 non-involved, symptom-free shoulders, 84 points. The subjective outcome was excellent in 45, good in 24, fair in 18 and poor in 9 shoulders. Complete tears were found in 12 shoulders and partial tears in seven. A total of 14 shoulders was symptom-free after acromioplasty, but after an average of five years became painful again and showed deterioration. Of these, six had complete tears and four partial tears of the cuff. The tear rate was 4% in shoulders initially judged to be excellent, 25% in good, 33% in fair and 55% in poor shoulders. The tear rate was 71% in shoulders which subsequently deteriorated. The incidence was higher in men (25%) than in women (11%).

We conclude that a tear of the rotator cuff may appear after acromioplasty, although there was no evidence of a tear at the time of operation. This is usually the reason for deterioration in a shoulder with an initially good operative outcome.

Aims. The aim of this study was to assess the ability of morphological spinal parameters to predict the outcome of bracing in patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) and to establish a novel supine correction index (SCI) for guiding bracing treatment. Methods. Patients with AIS to be treated by bracing were prospectively recruited between December 2016 and 2018, and were followed until brace removal. In all, 207 patients with a mean age at recruitment of 12.8 years (SD 1.2) were enrolled. Cobb angles, supine flexibility, and the rate of in-brace correction were measured and used to predict curve progression at the end of follow-up. The SCI was defined as the ratio between correction rate and flexibility. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was carried out to assess the optimal thresholds for flexibility, correction rate, and SCI in predicting a higher risk of progression, defined by a change in Cobb angle of ≥ 5° or the need for surgery. Results. The baseline Cobb angles were similar (p = 0.374) in patients whose curves progressed (32.7° (SD 10.7)) and in those whose curves remained stable (31.4° (SD 6.1)). High supine flexibility (odds ratio (OR) 0.947 (95% CI 0.910 to 0.984); p = 0.006) and correction rate (OR 0.926 (95% CI 0.890 to 0.964); p < 0.001) predicted a lower incidence of progression after adjusting for Cobb angle, Risser sign, curve type, menarche status, distal radius and ulna grading, and brace compliance. ROC curve analysis identified a cut-off of 18.1% for flexibility (sensitivity 0.682, specificity 0.704) and a cut-off of 28.8% for correction rate (sensitivity 0.773, specificity 0.691) in predicting a lower risk of curve progression. A SCI of greater than 1.21 predicted a lower risk of progression (OR 0.4 (95% CI 0.251 to 0.955); sensitivity 0.583, specificity 0.591; p = 0.036). Conclusion. A higher supine flexibility (18.1%) and correction rate (28.8%), and a SCI of greater than 1.21 predicted a lower risk of progression. These novel parameters can be used as a guide to optimize the outcome of bracing. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(4):495–503