The aim of this study was to estimate time to arthroplasty among patients with hip and knee osteoarthritis (OA), and to identify factors at enrolment to first-line intervention that are prognostic for progression to surgery. In this longitudinal register-based observational study, we identified 72,069 patients with hip and knee OA in the Better Management of Patients with Osteoarthritis Register (BOA), who were referred for first-line OA intervention, between May 2008 and December 2016. Patients were followed until the first primary arthroplasty surgery before 31 December 2016, stratified into a hip and a knee OA cohort. Data were analyzed with Kaplan-Meier and multivariable-adjusted Cox regression.Aims
Methods
To design osteoarthritis (OA) care based on prognosis, we need to identify individuals who are most likely of disease progression. We estimated survival time of the native hip and knee joint and evaluated what patient-related and OA disease-related factors associated with progression to joint replacement surgery. We included 72,069 patients referred to first-line OA intervention (patient education and exercise) during 2008 and 2016 and registered in the Swedish quality register Better Management of Patients with Osteoarthritis (BOA). Kaplan–Meier survival analyses were used to estimate joint survival time. Hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence interval [CI] were calculated using multiple Cox regression. The 5-year survival time of the native joint was 56% for hip OA and 80% for knee OA. Disease-related factors were more strongly associated with progression to joint replacement (e.g. willingness for surgery HR; hip 2.9 [95% CI, 2.7–3.1], knee 2.7 [2.6–2.9] and walking difficulties (HR; hip 2.2 [2.0–2.5], knee 1.9 [1.7–2.2]), than patient-related factors such socioeconomic factors (e.g. highest income quartile HR; hip 1.3 [1.2–1.3], knee 1.3 [1.2–1.4]) and comorbidities (e.g. ≥6 conditions HR; hip: 0.7 [0.6–0.7], knee; 1.1 [1.0–1.2]). Patients with hip OA were more likely to undergo surgery and at an earlier time compared with those with knee OA. Progression was strongly influenced by factors associated with the OA disease, but other patient-related factors are important. However, a large proportion of patients with OA do not seem to require surgery, especially among those with knee OA.
