Successful estimation of postoperative PROMs prior to a joint replacement surgery is important in deciding the best treatment option for a patient. However, estimation of the outcome is associated with substantial noise around individual prediction. Here, we test whether a classifier neural network can be used to simultaneously estimate postoperative PROMs and uncertainty better than current methods. We perform Oxford hip score (OHS) estimation using data collected by the NJR from 249,634 hip replacement surgeries performed from 2009 to 2018. The root mean square error (RMSE) of the various methods are compared to the standard deviation of outcome change distribution to measure the proportion of the total outcome variability that the model can capture. The area under the curve (AUC) for the probability of the change score being above a certain threshold was also plotted. The proposed classifier NN had a better or equivalent RMSE than all other currently used models. The threshold AUC shows similar results for all methods close to a change score of 20 but demonstrates better accuracy of the classifier neural network close to 0 change and greater than 30 change, showing that the full probability distribution performed by the classifier neural network resulted in a significant improvement in estimating the upper and lower quantiles of the change score probability distribution. Consequently, probabilistic estimation as performed by the classifier NN is the most adequate approach to this problem, since the final score has an important component of uncertainty. This study shows the importance of uncertainty estimation to accompany postoperative PROMs prediction and presents a clinically-meaningful method for personalised outcome that includes such uncertainty estimation.
A recent report from France suggested an association between the use of cobalt-chrome (CoCr) femoral heads in total hip arthroplasties (THAs) and an increased risk of dilated cardiomyopathy and heart failure. CoCr is a commonly used material in orthopaedic implants. If the reported association is causal, the consequences would be significant given the millions of joint arthroplasties and other orthopaedic procedures in which CoCr is used annually. We examined whether CoCr-containing THAs were associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality, heart outcomes, cancer, and neurodegenerative disorders in a large national database. Data from the National Joint Registry was linked to NHS English hospital inpatient episodes for 374,359 primary THAs with up to 14.5 years' follow-up. We excluded any patients with bilateral THAs, knee arthroplasties, indications other than osteoarthritis, aged under 55 years, and diagnosis of one or more outcome of interest before THA. Implants were grouped as either containing CoCr or not containing CoCr. The association between implant construct and the risk of all-cause mortality and incident heart failure, cancer, and neurodegenerative disorders was examined.Aims
Methods
The aim of this study was to describe temporal trends and survivorship of total hip arthroplasty (THA) in very young patients, aged ≤ 20 years. A descriptive observational study was undertaken using data from the National Joint Registry (NJR) for England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Isle of Man between April 2003 and March 2017. All patients aged ≤ 20 years at the time of THA were included and the primary outcome was revision surgery. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize the data and Kaplan–Meier estimates calculated for the cumulative implant survival.Aims
Patients and Methods
The aim of this study was to determine whether patients with
metal-on-metal (MoM) arthroplasties of the hip have an increased
risk of cardiac failure compared with those with alternative types
of arthroplasties (non-MoM). A linkage study between the National Joint Registry, Hospital
Episodes Statistics and records of the Office for National Statistics
on deaths was undertaken. Patients who underwent elective total
hip arthroplasty between January 2003 and December 2014 with no
past history of cardiac failure were included and stratified as
having either a MoM (n = 53 529) or a non-MoM (n = 482 247) arthroplasty.
The primary outcome measure was the time to an admission to hospital
for cardiac failure or death. Analysis was carried out using data
from all patients and from those matched by propensity score.Aims
Patients and Methods
Bleeding is a major complication of revision total hip replacement. We report a case where the inflated balloon of a urinary catheter was used to temporarily control intrapelvic bleeding from the superior gluteal artery, while definitive measures for endovascular embolisation were made.
The aims of this study were to examine the repeatability of measurements of bone mineral density (BMD) around a cemented polyethylene Charnley acetabular component using dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry and to determine the longitudinal pattern of change in BMD during the first 24 months after surgery. The precision of measurements of BMD in 19 subjects ranged from 7.7% to 10.8% between regions, using a four-region-of-interest model. A longitudinal study of 27 patients demonstrated a transient decrease in net pelvic BMD during the first 12 months, which recovered to baseline at 24 months. The BMD in the region medial to the dome of the component reduced by between 7% and 10% during the first three months, but recovered to approximately baseline values by two years. Changes in BMD in the pelvis around cemented acetabular components may be measured using dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry. Bone loss after insertion of a cemented Charnley acetabular component is small, transient and occurs mainly at the medial wall of the acetabulum. After two years, bone mass returns to baseline values, with a pattern suggesting a uniform transmission of load to the acetabulum.
