To develop and externally validate a parsimonious statistical prediction model of 90-day mortality after elective total hip arthroplasty (THA), and to provide a web calculator for clinical usage. We included 53,099 patients with cemented THA due to osteoarthritis from the Swedish Hip Arthroplasty Registry for model derivation and internal validation, as well as 125,428 patients from England and Wales recorded in the National Joint Register for England, Wales, Northern Ireland, the Isle of Man, and the States of Guernsey (NJR) for external model validation. A model was developed using a bootstrap ranking procedure with a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression model combined with piecewise linear regression. Discriminative ability was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Calibration belt plots were used to assess model calibration.Aims
Methods
Our aim was to examine the Elixhauser and Charlson comorbidity indices, based on administrative data available before surgery, and to establish their predictive value for mortality for patients who underwent hip arthroplasty in the management of a femoral neck fracture. We analyzed data from 42 354 patients from the Swedish Hip Arthroplasty Register between 2005 and 2012. Only the first operated hip was included for patients with bilateral arthroplasty. We obtained comorbidity data by linkage from the Swedish National Patient Register, as well as death dates from the national population register. We used univariable Cox regression models to predict mortality based on the comorbidity indices, as well as multivariable regression with age and gender. Predictive power was evaluated by a concordance index, ranging from 0.5 to 1 (with the higher value being the better predictive power). A concordance index less than 0.7 was considered poor. We used bootstrapping for internal validation of the results.Aims
Patients and Methods
Prospectively collected data is an important source of information subjected to change over time. What surgeons were doing in 1999 might not be the case anymore in 2016 and this change in time also applies to a number of factors related to the performance and outcome of total hip replacement. We evaluated the evolution of factors related to the patient, the surgical procedure, socio-economy and various outcome parameters after merging the databases of the Swedish Hip Arthroplasty Register, Statistics Sweden and the National Board of Health and Welfare. Data on 193,253 THRs (164,113 patients) operated between 1999 and 2012 were merged with databases including general information about the Swedish population and about hospital care. We studied the evolution of surgical volume, patient demographics, socio-economic factors, surgical factors, length of stay, mortality rate, adverse events, re-operation and revision rates and PROMs. Most patients were operated because of primary osteoarthritis and this share increased further during the period at the expense of decreasing number of patients with inflammatory OA and hip fracture. Comorbidity and ASA scores increased for each year. The share of all cemented implants has dropped from 92% to 68% with a corresponding increase of all uncemented from 2% to 16%. Length of stay decreased with about 50 percent to 4.5 days in 2012. The 30- and 90-day mortality rate dropped to 0.4% and 0.7%. Re-operation and revision rates at 2 years were lower in the more recent years. The postoperative PROMs are improving despite the preoperative pain scores getting worse. Even in Sweden, always been considered as a very conservative country with regards to hip replacement surgery, the demographics of the patients, the comorbidities and the primary diagnosis for surgery are changing. Despite these changes the outcomes like mortality, re-operations, revisions and PROMs are improving.
