A predictive model for final kyphosis was tested by evaluating the radiographs of forty-three patients with traumatic burst fractures. Since clinical outcomes are related to final kyphosis in the ambulatory patient rather than on the initial supine injury radiograph, the ability to predict final kyphosis is beneficial in determining treatment. This study demonstrated that in the appropriately selected patient for conservative care, the limit of final-kyphosis(Kf) can be predicted from the intial-kyphosis(KI) , such that Kf= < KI+.5KI . Outliers from this equation were patients who had unrecognized posterior column fractures, superior and inferior end-plate fractures, and/or multiple level of injury.

The purpose of this study was to define a prediction model that afforded clinicians the ability to define final kyphosis from initial supine films in order to guide the management of stable burst fractures.

This study has demonstrated that as a rule of thumb, the final absolute kyphosis for stable burst fractures can be expected to be up to Ki (initial absolute kyphosis) + 1.5Ki. Outliers were found to be fractures with unrecognized posterior element injury, both superior and inferior endplate fractures and multiple level injuries.

The final kyphosis is clinically more relevant than the initial kyphosis in terms of functional outcome after conservative management. A prediction model for final kyphosis based on initial injury films can help guide the clinician for optimal management.

Retrospective radiographic analysis was performed on forty-three patients with a minimum follow up six months. All patients suffered traumatic burst fractures, which were deemed stable as to be satisfactorily managed in a brace. Serial radiographs were used to determine initial (Ki) and final (Kf), Kyphosis angles. Predicted Kf was determined using the equation Kf =Ki + 1.5 Ki. The initial absolute kyphosis was the measured kyphosis using the Cobb technique and including the loss of the expected normal lordosis of that spinal segment. Inclusion criteria included burst fractures at between levels T10 – L3 in the neurologically intact patient.

The equation accurately predicted the final outcome , Kf, in 70 % of the cases. In 20% of the cases, the Kf was less than expected. (Acceptable clinical result). In 10% of the cases, Kf was greater than predicted or achieved a clinically unacceptable kyphotic angulation requiring secondary surgery. In this group of outliers, post-hoc analysis identified unrecognized posterior element injury, both superior and inferior endplate fractures and multiple level injuries.

In traumatic burst fractures, the goal of management is to protect the spine during healing while maintaining an acceptable alignment, which will not lead to late pain and deformity. A final absolute kyphosis angle, Kf, from twenty to thirty degrees has been variably regarded as a threshold to obtain a good clinical outcome. Criteria for stability have been previously documented, however variables are based on initial presentation. Aside from careful classification of the fracture type, the current “rule of thumb” prediction model for Kf may further help the clinician with management decisions.