Introduction. Pain is an expected and appropriate experience following traumatic musculoskeletal injury. By contrast, chronic pain and disability are unhelpful yet common sequelae of trauma-related injuries. Presently, the mechanisms that underlie the transition from acute to chronic disabling post-traumatic pain are not fully understood. The aim of this study is to identify prognostic factors for risk of developing chronic pain and disability following acute musculoskeletal trauma. Methods. A prospective observational study will recruit two temporally staggered cohorts (n=250 each cohort; 10 cases per candidate predictor) of consecutive acute musculoskeletal trauma patients aged ≥16 years, who are emergency admissions into a Major Trauma Centre in the United Kingdom, with an episode inception defined as the traumatic event. The first cohort will identify prognostic factors to develop a screening tool to predict development of chronic and disabling pain, and the second will allow evaluation of the predictive performance of the tool (validation). The outcome being predicted is an individual's absolute risk of poor outcome measured at 6-months follow-up using the Chronic Pain Grade Scale (poor outcome ≥Grade II). Candidate predictors encompass the four primary mechanisms of pain: nociceptive (e.g. injury characteristics), neuropathic (e.g. painDETECT), inflammatory (biomarkers), and central hypersensitivity (e.g. quantitative sensory testing). Concurrently, patient-reported outcome measures will assess general health and psychosocial factors. Risk of poor outcome will be calculated using multiple variable regression analysis. Conclusion. A prognostic screening tool for post-trauma pain will inform precision rehabilitation, targeting interventions to individual patients to improve clinical and cost effectiveness. Conflicts of interest: None. Sources of funding: NIHR Surgical Reconstruction and Microbiology Research Centre

Background

Serious traumatic injury is a leading cause of death and disability globally, with the majority of survivors developing chronic pain.