Aims. This systematic review aims to identify 3D predictors derived from biplanar reconstruction, and to describe current methods for improving curve prediction in patients with mild adolescent idiopathic scoliosis. Methods. A comprehensive search was conducted by three independent investigators on MEDLINE, PubMed, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library. Search terms included “adolescent idiopathic scoliosis”,“3D”, and “progression”. The inclusion and exclusion criteria were carefully defined to include clinical studies. Risk of bias was assessed with the Quality in Prognostic Studies tool (QUIPS) and Appraisal tool for Cross-Sectional Studies (AXIS), and level of evidence for each predictor was rated with the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluations (GRADE) approach. In all, 915 publications were identified, with 377 articles subjected to full-text screening; overall, 31 articles were included. Results. Torsion index (TI) and apical vertebral rotation (AVR) were identified as accurate predictors of curve progression in early visits. Initial TI > 3.7° and AVR > 5.8° were predictive of curve progression. Thoracic hypokyphosis was inconsistently observed in progressive curves with weak evidence. While sagittal wedging was observed in mild curves, there is insufficient evidence for its correlation with curve progression. In curves with initial Cobb angle < 25°, Cobb angle was a poor predictor for future curve progression. Prediction accuracy was improved by incorporating serial reconstructions in stepwise layers. However, a lack of post-hoc analysis was identified in studies involving geometrical models. Conclusion. For patients with mild curves, TI and AVR were identified as predictors of curve progression, with TI > 3.7° and AVR > 5.8° found to be important thresholds. Cobb angle acts as a poor predictor in mild curves, and more investigations are required to assess thoracic kyphosis and wedging as predictors. Cumulative reconstruction of radiographs improves prediction accuracy. Comprehensive analysis between progressive and non-progressive curves is recommended to extract meaningful thresholds for clinical prognostication. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(3):243–251

Purpose and background. Lumbar spinal fusion (LSF) is frequently and increasingly used in lumbar degenerative disorders despite conflicting results and recommendations. Further understanding of patient outcomes after LSF is required to inform decisions regarding surgery and to improve post-surgery management. The objective was to evaluate the course of pain and disability in patients with degenerative disorders of the lumbar spine (spinal stenosis, spondylolisthesis, disc herniation, discogenic low back pain) after first-time LSF. Methods and results. A systematic review and meta-analysis of pain and disability outcomes in prospective cohort studies after first time LSF for degenerative disorders. Two independent researchers searched key databases, determined study eligibility, extracted data and assessed risk of bias (modified Quality in Prognostic Studies tool). A third reviewer mediated at each stage. N weighted pooled estimates were calculated. Twenty-five articles (n=1,777 participants) were included. 17 studies were at unclear risk of bias and 8 at high risk. Back pain (12 studies) decreased modestly and irregularly at follow-up intervals. The n weighted mean VAS back pain decreased from 65.4 (±3.3) pre-surgery to 22.2 (±3.1) at 23 months, but then 45.0 (±not reported; 2 studies at risk of bias) at 42 months. In contrast, leg pain (12 studies) improved substantially short and long-term. Disability (20 studies) improved steadily over time with the exception of the 42-months and 48-months intervals. Conclusion. The overall improvement of leg pain and disability after first-time LSF in degenerative disorders is promising in contrast to back pain outcomes. Further research is needed to analyse outcomes in patients of different diagnostic subgroups. Conflicts of interest. None. Sources of funding. None