Introduction. The Kaplan Meier estimator is widely used in orthopedics. In situations where another event prevents the occurrence of the event of interest, the Kaplan Meier estimator is not appropriate and a competing risks model has to be applied. We questioned how much bias is introduced by erroneous use of the Kaplan Meier estimator instead of a competing risks model in a hip revision surgery cohort. Methods. In our previously published cohort study, 62 acetabular revisions (58 patients) were performed between January 1979 and March 1986. Twenty to twenty-five years after surgery, no patients were lost to follow-up. Thirteen patients underwent revision surgery. During the 20 to 25 years follow-up, 30 patients (33 acetabular revisions) died of causes unrelated to their hip surgery. Results. In the data set analyzed, the Kaplan Meier method overestimates the probability of implant failure by 6.7%, 13.8%,26.8%,48.6% at 5, 10, 15 and 20 years respectively. Discussion. We have performed two different analyses for a hip revision surgery cohort and discussed the use of a competing risks model. Ignoring competing risks leads to biased estimations of the probability of having future revision surgery. Therefore we recommended the use of a competing risks model whenever there are competing risks present

Revision Total Knee Arthroplasty (rTKA) is predicted to increase by more than 600% between 2005 and 2030. The survivorship of primary TKA has been extensively investigated, however more granular information on the risks of rTKA is needed. The aim of the study was to investigate the incidence of re-revision TKA, with explanatory variables of time from primary to revision, and indication (aseptic vs septic). Secondary aim was to investigate mortality. This is an analysis of the Scottish Arthroplasty Project data set, a national audit prospectively recording data on all joint replacements performed in Scotland. The period from 2000 to 2019 was studied. 4723 patients underwent revision TKA. The relationship between time from primary to revision TKA and 2nd revision was significant (p<0.001), with increasing time lowering probability of re-revision (OR 0.99 95% CI 0.987 to 0.993). There was no significant association in time to first revision on time from 1st revision to re-revision (p>0.05). Overall mortality for all patients was 32% at 10 years (95% CI 31-34), Time from primary TKA to revision TKA had a significant effect on mortality: p=0.004 OR 1.03 (1.01-1.05). Septic revisions had a reduced mortality compared to aseptic, OR 0.95 (0.71-1.25) however this was not significant (p=0.69). This is the first study to demonstrate time from primary TKA to revision TKA having a significant effect on probability of re-revision TKA. Furthermore the study suggests mortality is increased with increasing time from primary procedure to revision, however decreased if the indication is septic rather than aseptic

Aims. To compare the cost-effectiveness of high-dose, dual-antibiotic cement versus single-antibiotic cement for the treatment of displaced intracapsular hip fractures in older adults. Methods. Using data from a multicentre randomized controlled trial (World Hip Trauma Evaluation 8 (WHiTE-8)) in the UK, a within-trial economic evaluation was conducted. Resource usage was measured over 120 days post randomization, and cost-effectiveness was reported in terms of incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY), gained from the UK NHS and personal social services (PSS) perspective in the base-case analysis. Methodological uncertainty was addressed using sensitivity analysis, while decision uncertainty was handled using confidence ellipses and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. Results. The base-case analysis showed that high-dose, dual-antibiotic cement had a significantly higher mean cost (£224 (95% confidence interval (CI) -408 to 855)) and almost the same QALYs (0.001 (95% CI -0.002 to 0.003)) relative to single-antibiotic cement from the UK NHS and PSS perspective. The probability of the high-dose, dual-antibiotic cement being cost-effective was less than 0.3 at alternative cost-effectiveness thresholds, and its net monetary benefit was negative. This finding remained robust in the sensitivity analyses. Conclusion. This study shows that high-dose, dual-antibiotic cement is unlikely to be cost-effective compared to single-antibiotic cement for the treatment of displaced intracapsular hip fractures in older adults. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(10):1070–1077

Aims. The aim of this study to compare 30-day survival and recovery of mobility between patients mobilized early (on the day of, or day after surgery for a hip fracture) and patients mobilized late (two days or more after surgery), and to determine whether the presence of dementia influences the association between the timing of mobilization, 30-day survival, and recovery. Methods. Analysis of the National Hip Fracture Database and hospital records for 126,897 patients aged ≥ 60 years who underwent surgery for a hip fracture in England and Wales between 2014 and 2016. Using logistic regression, we adjusted for covariates with a propensity score to estimate the association between the timing of mobilization, survival, and recovery of walking ability. Results. A total of 99,667 patients (79%) mobilized early. Among those mobilized early compared to those mobilized late, the weighted odds ratio of survival was 1.92 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.80 to 2.05), of recovering outdoor ambulation was 1.25 (95% CI 1.03 to 1.51), and of recovering indoor ambulation was 1.53 (95% CI 1.32 to 1.78) by 30 days. The weighted probabilities of survival at 30 days post-admission were 95.9% (95% CI 95.7% to 96.0%) for those who mobilized early and 92.4% (95% CI 92.0% to 92.8%) for those who mobilized late. The weighted probabilities of regaining the ability to walk outdoors were 9.7% (95% CI 9.2% to 10.2%) and indoors 81.2% (95% CI 80.0% to 82.4%), for those who mobilized early, and 7.9% (95% CI 6.6% to 9.2%) and 73.8% (95% CI 71.3% to 76.2%), respectively, for those who mobilized late. Patients with dementia were less likely to mobilize early despite observed associations with survival and ambulation recovery for those with and without dementia. Conclusion. Early mobilization is associated with survival and recovery for patients (with and without dementia) after hip fracture. Early mobilization should be incorporated as a measured indicator of quality. Reasons for failure to mobilize early should also be recorded to inform quality improvement initiatives. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(7):1317–1324

Aims. Heterotopic ossification (HO) is a common complication after elbow trauma and can cause severe upper limb disability. Although multiple prognostic factors have been reported to be associated with the development of post-traumatic HO, no model has yet been able to combine these predictors more succinctly to convey prognostic information and medical measures to patients. Therefore, this study aimed to identify prognostic factors leading to the formation of HO after surgery for elbow trauma, and to establish and validate a nomogram to predict the probability of HO formation in such particular injuries. Methods. This multicentre case-control study comprised 200 patients with post-traumatic elbow HO and 229 patients who had elbow trauma but without HO formation between July 2019 and December 2020. Features possibly associated with HO formation were obtained. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was used to optimize feature selection. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was applied to build the new nomogram: the Shanghai post-Traumatic Elbow Heterotopic Ossification Prediction model (STEHOP). STEHOP was validated by concordance index (C-index) and calibration plot. Internal validation was conducted using bootstrapping validation. Results. Male sex, obesity, open wound, dislocations, late definitive surgical treatment, and lack of use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs were identified as adverse predictors and incorporated to construct the STEHOP model. It displayed good discrimination with a C-index of 0.80 (95% confidence interval 0.75 to 0.84). A high C-index value of 0.77 could still be reached in the internal validation. The calibration plot showed good agreement between nomogram prediction and observed outcomes. Conclusion. The newly developed STEHOP model is a valid and convenient instrument to predict HO formation after surgery for elbow trauma. It could assist clinicians in counselling patients regarding treatment expectations and therapeutic choices. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(8):963–971

Aims. To evaluate the impact of negative pressure wound therapy (NPWT) on the odds of having deep infections and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) following open fractures. Methods. Patients from the Fluid Lavage in Open Fracture Wounds (FLOW) trial with Gustilo-Anderson grade II or III open fractures within the lower limb were included in this secondary analysis. Using mixed effects logistic regression, we assessed the impact of NPWT on deep wound infection requiring surgical intervention within 12 months post-injury. Using multilevel model analyses, we evaluated the impact of NPWT on the Physical Component Summary (PCS) of the 12-Item Short-Form Health Survey (SF-12) at 12 months post-injury. Results. After applying inverse probability treatment weighting to adjust for the influence of injury characteristics on type of dressing used, 1,322 participants were assessed. The odds of developing a deep infection requiring operative management within 12 months of initial surgery was 4.52-times higher in patients who received NPWT compared to those who received a standard wound dressing (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.84 to 11.12; p = 0.001). Overall, 1,040 participants were included in our HRQoL analysis, and those treated with NPWT had statistically significantly lower mean SF-12 PCS post-fracture (p < 0.001). These differences did not reach the minimally important difference for the SF-12 PCS. Conclusion. Our analysis found that patients treated with NPWT had higher odds of developing a deep infection requiring operative management within 12 months post-fracture. Due to possible residual confounding with the worst cases being treated with NPWT, we are unable to determine if NPWT has a negative effect or is simply a marker of worse injuries or poor access to early soft-tissue coverage. Regardless, our results suggest that the use of this treatment requires further evaluation. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(3):189–195

This study aims to determine the lifetime risk of revision surgery after primary knee arthroplasty (KA). The Scottish Arthroplasty Project dataset was utilised to identify all patients undergoing primary KA during the period 1998–2019. The cumulative incidence function for revision and death was calculated and adjusted analyses utilised cause-specific Cox regression modelling to determine the influence of patient-factors. The lifetime risk was calculated for patients aged between 45–99 years using multiple decrement lifetable methodology. The lifetime risk of revision ranged between 32.7% (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 22.62–47.31) for patients aged 45–49 years and 0.63% (95%CI 0.1–4.5) for patients aged over 90 years. Adjusted analyses demonstrated the converse effect of age on revision (Hazard Ratio (HR) 0.5, 95%CI 0.5–0.6) and death (HR 3.5, 95%CI 3.4–3.7). Male sex was associated with increased risks of revision (HR 1.1, 95%CI 1.1–1.2) and death (HR 1.4, 95%CI 1.3–1.4). Patients with inflammatory arthropathy had a higher risk of death (HR 1.7, 95%CI 1.7–1.8), but were less likely to be revised (HR 0.85, 95%CI 0.74–0.98) than those treated for osteoarthritis. Patients with greater number of comorbidities and greater levels of socio-economic deprivation were at increased risk of death, but neither increased the risk of revision. The lifetime risk of revision knee arthroplasty varies depending on patient sex, age at surgery and underlying diagnosis. Patients aged between 45 and 49 years have a one in three probability of revision surgery within their lifetime. Conversely, patients aged 90 years or over were very unlikely to experience revision

Aims. To compare the cost-utility of standard dressing with incisional negative-pressure wound therapy (iNPWT) in adults with closed surgical wounds associated with major trauma to the lower limbs. Methods. A within-trial economic evaluation was conducted from the UK NHS and personal social services (PSS) perspective based on data collected from the Wound Healing in Surgery for Trauma (WHiST) multicentre randomized clinical trial. Health resource utilization was collected over a six-month post-randomization period using trial case report forms and participant-completed questionnaires. Cost-utility was reported in terms of incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to test the robustness of cost-effectiveness estimates while uncertainty was handled using confidence ellipses and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. Results. The incremental cost of standard dressing versus iNPWT over six months was £2,037 (95% confidence interval (CI) £349 to £3,724). There was an insignificant increment in QALYs gained in the iNPWT group (0.005, 95% CI -0.018 to 0.028). The probability of iNPWT being cost-effective at £20,000 per QALY was 1.9%. The results remained robust in the sensitivity analysis. Conclusion. The within-trial economic evaluation suggests that iNPWT is unlikely to be a cost-effective alternative to standard dressing in adults with closed surgical wounds to their lower limbs. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(8):1072–1081

Aims. The aim of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of negative-pressure wound therapy (NPWT) in comparison with standard wound management after initial surgical wound debridement in adults with severe open fractures of the lower limb. Patients and Methods. An economic evaluation was conducted from the perspective of the United Kingdom NHS and Personal Social Services, based on evidence from the 460 participants in the Wound Management of Open Lower Limb Fractures (WOLLF) trial. Economic outcomes were collected prospectively over the 12-month follow-up period using trial case report forms and participant-completed questionnaires. Bivariate regression of costs (given in £, 2014 to 2015 prices) and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), with multiple imputation of missing data, was conducted to estimate the incremental cost per QALY gained associated with NPWT dressings. Sensitivity and subgroup analyses were undertaken to assess the impacts of uncertainty and heterogeneity, respectively, surrounding aspects of the economic evaluation. Results. The base case analysis produced an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £267 910 per QALY gained, reflecting higher costs on average (£678; 95% confidence interval (CI) -£1082 to £2438) and only marginally higher QALYS (0.002; 95% CI -0.054 to 0.059) in the NPWT group. The probability that NPWT is cost-effective in this patient population did not exceed 27% regardless of the value of the cost-effectiveness threshold. This result remained robust to several sensitivity and subgroup analyses. Conclusion. This trial-based economic evaluation suggests that NPWT is unlikely to be a cost-effective strategy for improving outcomes in adult patients with severe open fractures of the lower limb. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B:1392–1401

Background. Second-generation high-carbon CoCrMo-alloy metal-on-metal total hip arthroplasty (THA) was introduced in the late 1980s following reports of early loosening, impingement, pronounced wear, and hypersensitivity in the first-generation metal-on-metal articulations. There has been inconsistent data that specifically addresses the clinical performance and longevity of second-generation metal-on-metal THA. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the survival of second-generation metal-on-metal primary THA and to assess the influence of demographic factors on implant survival in a large patient cohort. Methods. One thousand two hundred and seventy second-generation 28 mm metal-on-metal primary THA in 1121 patients were performed at one institution from 1994 to 2004. According to the International Documentation and Evaluation System patients were followed routinely at one year, two years and every five years thereafter. Clinical and radiographic outcome data was prospectively recorded using a hospital joint registry. At a mean follow-up of 6.8 years postoperatively, the probability of survival of THA was estimated using the method of Kaplan and Meier. Relative risk factors for implant failure that included age, gender, BMI, type of implant fixation and size of implant components were calculated using the Cox proportional-hazards model. Results. Sixty three (5%) hips were revised because of aseptic loosening (28 hips), infection (8 hips), periprosthetic fracture (8 hips), recurrent dislocation (8 hips), pain without implant loosening (7 hips) and breakage of the cup (4 hips). The probability of survival at ten years, with revision for any reason as the endpoint, for the THA as a whole was 0.90 (95% confidence interval, 0.87 to 0.94). The probability of survival for the cup was 0.90 (95% confidence interval, 0.86 to 0.93) and for the stem 0.94 (95% confidence interval, 0.91 to 0.97). No demographic factors or covariates were found to significantly affect survivorship. Conclusion. Second-generation metal-on-metal primary THA did not demonstrate a superior probability of survival at ten years compared with previous reports on other weight-bearing surfaces. Based on these findings and with consideration of concerns that relate to putative local and systemic toxicity of metal debris, the use of second-generation metal-on-metal articulations for primary THA remains moot

Aims. The aim of this study was to describe variation in hip fracture treatment in Norway expressed as adherence to international and national evidence-based treatment guidelines, to study factors influencing deviation from guidelines, and to analyze consequences of non-adherence. Methods. International and national guidelines were identified and treatment recommendations extracted. All 43 hospitals routinely treating hip fractures in Norway were characterized. From the Norwegian Hip Fracture Register (NHFR), hip fracture patients aged > 65 years and operated in the period January 2014 to December 2018 for fractures with conclusive treatment guidelines were included (n = 29,613: femoral neck fractures (n = 21,325), stable trochanteric fractures (n = 5,546), inter- and subtrochanteric fractures (n = 2,742)). Adherence to treatment recommendations and a composite indicator of best practice were analyzed. Patient survival and reoperations were evaluated for each recommendation. Results. Median age of the patients was 84 (IQR 77 to 89) years and 69% (20,427/29,613) were women. Overall, 79% (23,390/29,613) were treated within 48 hours, and 80% (23,635/29,613) by a surgeon with more than three years’ experience. Adherence to guidelines varied substantially but was markedly better in 2018 than in 2014. Having a dedicated hip fracture unit (OR 1.06, 95%CI 1.01 to 1.11) and a hospital hip fracture programme (OR 1.16, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.27) increased the probability of treatment according to best practice. Surgery after 48 hours increased one-year mortality significantly (OR 1.13, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.22; p = 0.001). Alternative treatment to arthroplasty for displaced femoral neck fractures (FNFs) increased mortality after 30 days (OR 1.29, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.62)) and one year (OR 1.45, 95% CI 1.22 to 1.72), and also increased the number of reoperations (OR 4.61, 95% CI 3.73 to 5.71). An uncemented stem increased the risk of reoperation significantly (OR 1.23, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.48; p = 0.030). Conclusion. Our study demonstrates a substantial variation between hospitals in adherence to evidence-based guidelines for treatment of hip fractures in Norway. Non-adherence can be ascribed to in-hospital factors. Poor adherence has significant negative consequences for patients in the form of increased mortality rates at 30 and 365 days post-treatment and in reoperation rates. Cite this article: Bone Joint Open 2020;1-10:644–653

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Though most humeral shaft fractures heal nonoperatively, up to one-third may lead to nonunion with inferior outcomes. The Radiographic Union Score for HUmeral Fractures (RUSHU) was created to identify high-risk patients for nonunion. Our study evaluated the RUSHU’s prognostic performance at six and 12 weeks in discriminating nonunion within a significantly larger cohort than before.

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The aim of this study was to investigate the association between additional rehabilitation at the weekend, and in-hospital mortality and complications in patients with hip fracture who underwent surgery.

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Several previously identified patient-, injury-, and treatment-related factors are associated with the development of nonunion in distal femur fractures. However, the predictive value of these factors is not well defined. We aimed to assess the predictive ability of previously identified risk factors in the development of nonunion leading to secondary surgery in distal femur fractures.

We prospectively assessed the diagnostic accuracy of the gravity stress test and clinical findings to evaluate the stability of the ankle mortise in patients with supination–external rotation-type fractures of the lateral malleolus without widening of the medial clear space. The cohort included 79 patients with a mean age of 44 years (16 to 82). Two surgeons assessed medial tenderness, swelling and ecchymosis and performed the external rotation (ER) stress test (a reference standard). A diagnostic radiographer performed the gravity stress test. For the gravity stress test, the positive likelihood ratio (LR) was 5.80 with a 95% confidence interval (CI) of 2.75 to 12.27, and the negative LR was 0.15 (95% CI 0.07 to 0.35), suggesting a moderate change from the pre-test probability. Medial tenderness, both alone and in combination with swelling and/or ecchymosis, indicated a small change (positive LR, 2.74 to 3.25; negative LR, 0.38 to 0.47), whereas swelling and ecchymosis indicated only minimal changes (positive LR, 1.41 to 1.65; negative LR, 0.38 to 0.47). . In conclusion, when gravity stress test results are in agreement with clinical findings, the result is likely to predict stability of the ankle mortise with an accuracy equivalent to ER stress test results. When clinical examination suggests a medial-side injury, however, the gravity stress test may give a false negative result. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2015; 97-B:1126–31

Aims. A pragmatic multicentre randomised controlled trial (PROFHER) was conducted in United Kingdom National Health Service (NHS) hospitals to evaluate the clinical effectiveness and cost effectiveness of surgery compared with non-surgical treatment for displaced fractures of the proximal humerus involving the surgical neck in adults. . Methods. A cost utility analysis from the NHS perspective was performed. Differences between surgical and non-surgical treatment groups in costs and quality adjusted life years (QALYs) at two years were used to derive an estimate of the cost effectiveness of surgery using regression methods. . Results. Patients randomised to receive surgical intervention accumulated mean greater costs and marginally lower QALYs than patients randomised to non-surgery. The surgical intervention cost a mean of £1758 more per patient (95% confidence intervals (CI) £1126 to £2389). Total QALYs for the surgical group were smaller than those for non-surgery -0.0101 (95% CI -0.13 to 0.11). The probability of surgery being cost effective was less than 10% given the current NICE willingness to pay at a threshold of £20 000 for an additional QALY. The results were robust to sensitivity analyses. Discussion. The results suggest that current surgical treatment is not cost effective for the majority of displaced fractures of the proximal humerus involving the surgical neck in the United Kingdom’s NHS. Take home message: The results of this trial do not support the trend of increased surgical treatment for patients with displaced fractures of the proximal humerus involving the surgical neck within the United Kingdom NHS. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2016;98-B:152–9

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Proximal femur fractures treatment can involve anterograde nailing with a single or double cephalic screw. An undesirable failure for this fixation is screw cut-out. In a single-screw nail, a tip-apex distance (TAD) greater than 25 mm has been associated with an increased risk of cut-out. The aim of the study was to examine the role of TAD as a risk factor in a cephalic double-screw nail.

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To investigate if preoperative CT improves detection of unstable trochanteric hip fractures.

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This study aimed to investigate the clinical characteristics and outcomes associated with culture-negative limb osteomyelitis patients.

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To determine if patient ethnicity among patients with a hip fracture influences the type of fracture, surgical care, and outcome.