Aims. Heterotopic ossification (HO) is a common complication after elbow trauma and can cause severe upper limb disability. Although multiple prognostic factors have been reported to be associated with the development of post-traumatic HO, no model has yet been able to combine these predictors more succinctly to convey prognostic information and medical measures to patients. Therefore, this study aimed to identify prognostic factors leading to the formation of HO after surgery for elbow trauma, and to establish and validate a nomogram to predict the probability of HO formation in such particular injuries. Methods. This multicentre case-control study comprised 200 patients with post-traumatic elbow HO and 229 patients who had elbow trauma but without HO formation between July 2019 and December 2020. Features possibly associated with HO formation were obtained. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was used to optimize feature selection. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was applied to build the new nomogram: the Shanghai post-Traumatic Elbow Heterotopic Ossification Prediction model (STEHOP). STEHOP was validated by concordance index (C-index) and calibration plot. Internal validation was conducted using bootstrapping validation. Results. Male sex, obesity, open wound, dislocations, late definitive surgical treatment, and lack of use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs were identified as adverse predictors and incorporated to construct the STEHOP model. It displayed good discrimination with a C-index of 0.80 (95% confidence interval 0.75 to 0.84). A high C-index value of 0.77 could still be reached in the internal validation. The calibration plot showed good agreement between nomogram prediction and observed outcomes. Conclusion. The newly developed STEHOP model is a valid and convenient instrument to predict HO formation after surgery for elbow trauma. It could assist clinicians in counselling patients regarding treatment expectations and therapeutic choices. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(8):963–971

Improvised Explosive Device (IED) attacks on vehicles have been a significant feature of recent conflicts. The Dynamic Response Index (DRI), developed for predicting spinal injury in aircraft ejection, has been adopted for testing vehicles in underbelly blast. Recent papers suggest that DRI is not accurate in blast conditions. We suggest that the distribution of blast and ejection injuries is different. A literature review identified the distribution of spinal fractures in aircraft ejection incidents. A Joint Theatre Trauma Registry search identified victims of mounted IED blast with spinal fractures. The distribution of injuries in the two groups was compared using the Kruskall Wallis test. 329 fractures were identified in ejector seat incidents; 1% cervical, 84% thoracic and 16% lumbar. 245 fractures were identified in victims of mounted blast; 16% cervical, 34% thoracic and 50% lumbar. There was no significant similarity between the two (p=1). There was no statistically significant difference between the distribution of fractures in blast survivors versus fatalities. The difference between blast and ejection injury patterns suggests that injury prediction models for ejection should not be extrapolated to blast mechanisms and that new models need to be developed

Introduction:. Paley et al has developed a multiplier method for calculating both leg length and total height. In the development of this algorithm, they evaluated the effect of factors including bone age and sex. They established that sex had a significant impact, but adjusting for bone age did not improve accuracy. Bone age and menarche have been shown to improve other height prediction models. Purpose:. We used a large prospective cohort to evaluate if the multiplier is independent of physiological age using menarche as a proxy. Methods:. Using the ALSPAC dataset we determined the accuracy of the Paley multiplier for predicting total height and leg length, and assed weather if the date of first menses increased the accuracy of the multiplier. Female patients over the age of 8, with documented final height and final sub-ishial leg length over the age of 15 and a date of first menses were evaluated. Predicted final height was compared with actual final height at all data points. Results:. There were 28332 data points in 3062 girls prior to skeletal maturity in the total height cohort and 8395 data points in 2300 girls in the leg length cohort. When age was corrected using the difference in age at onset of menarche from average, the accuracy of multiplier decreased for both measurements. When a correction of 50% was used, there was an improvement in the accuracy of multiplier predictions, reducing the average error by up to 24%. Conclusions:. Previous studies have failed to demonstrate that the accuracy of the multiplier is improved when adjusted for bone age. We have used the date of first menses as a proxy for bone age and established that making a 50% correction for physiological age improves the accuracy of this method. Significance:. This will potentially allow more accurate prediction of leg length discrepancy, and total height in girls with early menarche

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Frailty greatly increases the risk of adverse outcome of trauma in older people. Frailty detection tools appear to be unsuitable for use in traumatically injured older patients. We therefore aimed to develop a method for detecting frailty in older people sustaining trauma using routinely collected clinical data.

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It is unclear whether acute plate fixation facilitates earlier return of normal shoulder function following a displaced mid-shaft clavicular fracture compared with nonoperative management when union occurs. The primary aim of this study was to establish whether acute plate fixation was associated with a greater return of normal shoulder function when compared with nonoperative management in patients who unite their fractures. The secondary aim was to investigate whether there were identifiable predictors associated with return of normal shoulder function in patients who achieve union with nonoperative management.

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Patients who sustain neck of femur fractures are at high risk of malnutrition. Our intention was to assess to what extent malnutrition was associated with worse patient outcomes.