Aims. Several previously identified patient-, injury-, and treatment-related factors are associated with the development of nonunion in distal femur fractures. However, the predictive value of these factors is not well defined. We aimed to assess the predictive ability of previously identified risk factors in the development of nonunion leading to secondary surgery in distal femur fractures. Methods. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of adult patients with traumatic distal femur fracture treated with lateral locking plate between 2009 and 2018. The patients who underwent secondary surgery due to fracture healing problem or plate failure were considered having nonunion. Background knowledge of risk factors of distal femur fracture nonunion based on previous literature was used to form an initial set of variables. A logistic regression model was used with previously identified patient- and injury-related variables (age, sex, BMI, diabetes, smoking, periprosthetic fracture, open fracture, trauma energy, fracture zone length, fracture comminution, medial side comminution) in the first analysis and with treatment-related variables (different surgeon-controlled factors, e.g. plate length, screw placement, and proximal fixation) in the second analysis to predict the nonunion leading to secondary surgery in distal femur fractures. Results. We were able to include 299 fractures in 291 patients. Altogether, 31/299 fractures (10%) developed nonunion. In the first analysis, pseudo-R. 2. was 0.27 and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.81. BMI was the most important variable in the
Current levels of hip fracture morbidity contribute greatly to the overall burden on health and social care services. Given the anticipated ageing of the population over the coming decade, there is potential for this burden to increase further, although the exact scale of impact has not been identified in contemporary literature. We therefore set out to predict the future incidence of hip fracture and help inform appropriate service provision to maintain an adequate standard of care. Historical data from the Scottish Hip Fracture Audit (2017 to 2021) were used to identify monthly incidence rates. Established time series forecasting techniques (Exponential Smoothing and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) were then used to predict the annual number of hip fractures from 2022 to 2029, including adjustment for predicted changes in national population demographics. Predicted differences in service-level outcomes (length of stay and discharge destination) were analyzed, including the associated financial cost of any changes.Aims
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We report a prospective study of 232 consecutive patients with hip fractures. All were over 64 years of age and living independently before admission to a geriatric orthopaedic ward. We assessed the value, at admission, of predicting factors for independent living at one year after injury. The most important factors were: (1) preinjury function in activities of daily living (grade A or B on the Katz et al (1963) scale); (2) absence of other medical conditions which would impair rehabilitation; and (3) cognitive function better than 7 on the Pfeiffer (1975) mental questionnaire. The odds ratios (95% CI) for these three predictors were 3.5 (1.3 to 9.1), 2.9 (1.3 to 6.1) and 2.4 (1.9 to 4.9), respectively. When all predictors were positive at admission, 92% were living independently at one year; with one, two or three negative predictors, the percentages living independently were 76, 61 and 27, respectively. The median values of the total number of days in hospital, irrespective of diagnosis, during the first year were 12, 24, 29 and 149 days for the four groups. The mortality at one year was predictable on admission only by the number of medical conditions: with no other diagnosis than the fracture the mortality was 0%; with one or two additional conditions the mortality was 14%; and with three or more additional diagnoses it was 24%. These simple and robust predictors can be used to optimise resources for rehabilitation.
When introducing new joint replacement designs, it is difficult to predict with any certainty the clinical performance of the new designs. Using roentgen stereophotogrammetric analysis (RSA) to evaluate the first two years of follow-up can serve as a predictor of late mechanical loosening for hip and knee prostheses. This prospectively randomized study was designed to evaluate the clinical performance of the Triathlon total knee system and compare the results between the two versions; posterior stabilized (PS) and cruciate retaining (CR). Sixty patients were consecutively randomized (two patients left the study prior to surgery) to receive either the Triathlon total knee PS (30 patients) or the Triathlon total knee CR (28 patients). All components were cemented. The study was approved by the Ethical Committee for Lund University. All patients met the inclusion criteria. There were no statistically significant differences between the demographics for PS and CR. RSA was set to be the principal evaluation parameter. Patient outcome was assessed by the KSS and KOOS questionnaires.Introduction
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Aims. Heterotopic ossification (HO) is a common complication after elbow trauma and can cause severe upper limb disability. Although multiple prognostic factors have been reported to be associated with the development of post-traumatic HO, no model has yet been able to combine these predictors more succinctly to convey prognostic information and medical measures to patients. Therefore, this study aimed to identify prognostic factors leading to the formation of HO after surgery for elbow trauma, and to establish and validate a nomogram to predict the probability of HO formation in such particular injuries. Methods. This multicentre case-control study comprised 200 patients with post-traumatic elbow HO and 229 patients who had elbow trauma but without HO formation between July 2019 and December 2020. Features possibly associated with HO formation were obtained. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was used to optimize feature selection. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was applied to build the new nomogram: the Shanghai post-Traumatic Elbow Heterotopic Ossification
Aims. We assessed the value of the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) in the
Mirels’ score predicts the likelihood of sustaining pathological fractures using pain, lesion site, size and morphology. The aim is to investigate its reproducibility, reliability and accuracy in upper limb bony metastases and validate its use in pathological fracture
A prospective study was performed to develop
a clinical
Introduction:. Paley et al has developed a multiplier method for calculating both leg length and total height. In the development of this algorithm, they evaluated the effect of factors including bone age and sex. They established that sex had a significant impact, but adjusting for bone age did not improve accuracy. Bone age and menarche have been shown to improve other height
To evaluate if clinical recovery following midshaft clavicle fracture is associated with nonunion and determine if this has superior predictive value compared to estimation at time of injury. A prospective study of all patients (≥16 years) who sustained a displaced midshaft clavicle fracture was performed. We assessed patient demographics, injury factors, functional scores and radiographic predictors with a standardized protocol at six-weeks. Conditional-stepwise regression was used to assess which factors independently predicted nonunion at six-months post-injury determined by CT. The nonunion predictor six-week model (NUP6) was compared against a previously validated model based on factors available at time of injury (NUP0-smoking, comminution and fracture displacement). 200 patients completed follow-up at six months. The nonunion rate was 14% (27/200). Of the functional scores, the QuickDASH had the highest accuracy on receiver-operator-characteristic (ROC) curve analysis with a 39.8 threshold, above which was associated with nonunion (Area Under Curve (AUC) 76.8%, p<0.001). On regression modelling QuickDASH ≥40 (p=0.001), no callus on radiograph (p=0.004) and fracture movement on examination (p=0.001) were significant predictors of nonunion. If none were present the predicted nonunion risk was 3%, found in 40% of the cohort (n=80/200). Conversely if two or more were present, found in 23.5% of the cohort, the predicted nonunion risk was 60%. The NUP6 model appeared to have superior accuracy when compared to the NUP0 model on ROC curve analysis (AUC 87.3% vs 64.8% respectively). Delayed assessment at six-weeks following displaced clavicle fracture enables a more accurate
Frailty greatly increases the risk of adverse outcome of trauma in older people. Frailty detection tools appear to be unsuitable for use in traumatically injured older patients. We therefore aimed to develop a method for detecting frailty in older people sustaining trauma using routinely collected clinical data. We analyzed prospectively collected registry data from 2,108 patients aged ≥ 65 years who were admitted to a single major trauma centre over five years (1 October 2015 to 31 July 2020). We divided the sample equally into two, creating derivation and validation samples. In the derivation sample, we performed univariate analyses followed by multivariate regression, starting with 27 clinical variables in the registry to predict Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS; range 1 to 9) scores. Bland-Altman analyses were performed in the validation cohort to evaluate any biases between the Nottingham Trauma Frailty Index (NTFI) and the CFS.Aims
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There has been an increasing use of early operative fixation for scaphoid fractures, despite uncertain evidence. We conducted a meta-analysis to evaluate up-to-date evidence from randomized controlled trials (RCTs), comparing the effectiveness of the operative and nonoperative treatment of undisplaced and minimally displaced (≤ 2 mm displacement) scaphoid fractures. A systematic review of seven databases was performed from the dates of their inception until the end of March 2021 to identify eligible RCTs. Reference lists of the included studies were screened. No language restrictions were applied. The primary outcome was the patient-reported outcome measure of wrist function at 12 months after injury. A meta-analysis was performed for function, pain, range of motion, grip strength, and union. Complications were reported narratively.Aims
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The aims of this study were to identify means to quantify coronal plane displacement associated with distal radius fractures (DRFs), and to understand their relationship to radial inclination (RI). From posteroanterior digital radiographs of healed DRFs in 398 female patients aged 70 years or older, and 32 unfractured control wrists, the relationships of RI, quantifiably, to four linear measurements made perpendicular to reference distal radial shaft (DRS) and ulnar shaft (DUS) axes were analyzed: 1) DRS to radial aspect of ulnar head (DRS-U); 2) DUS to volar-ulnar corner of distal radius (DUS-R); 3) DRS to proximal capitate (DRS-PC); and 4) DRS to DUS (interaxis distance, IAD); and, qualitatively, to the distal ulnar fracture, and its intersection with the DUS axis.Aims
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The incidence of atypical femoral fractures (AFFs) continues to increase. However, there are currently few long-term studies on the complications of AFFs and factors affecting them. Therefore, we attempted to investigate the outcomes, complications, and risk factors for complication through mid-term follow-up of more than three years. From January 2003 to January 2016, 305 patients who underwent surgery for AFFs at six hospitals were enrolled. After exclusion, a total of 147 patients were included with a mean age of 71.6 years (48 to 89) and 146 of whom were female. We retrospectively evaluated medical records, and reviewed radiographs to investigate the fracture site, femur bowing angle, presence of delayed union or nonunion, contralateral AFFs, and peri-implant fracture. A statistical analysis was performed to identify the significance of associated factors.Aims
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The aim of this study was to assess whether it is possible to predict the mortality, and the extent and time of neurological recovery from the time of the onset of symptoms and MRI grade, in patients with the cerebral fat embolism syndrome (CFES). This has not previously been investigated. The study included 34 patients who were diagnosed with CFES following trauma between 2012 and 2018. The clinical diagnosis was confirmed and the severity graded by MRI. We investigated the rate of mortality, the time and extent of neurological recovery, the time between the injury and the onset of symptoms, the clinical severity of the condition, and the MRI grade. All patients were male with a mean age of 29.7 years (18 to 70). The mean follow-up was 4.15 years (2 to 8), with neurological recovery being assessed by the Glasgow Outcome Scale and the Mini-Mental State Examination.Aims
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It is unclear whether acute plate fixation facilitates earlier return of normal shoulder function following a displaced mid-shaft clavicular fracture compared with nonoperative management when union occurs. The primary aim of this study was to establish whether acute plate fixation was associated with a greater return of normal shoulder function when compared with nonoperative management in patients who unite their fractures. The secondary aim was to investigate whether there were identifiable predictors associated with return of normal shoulder function in patients who achieve union with nonoperative management. Patient data from a randomized controlled trial were used to compare acute plate fixation with nonoperative management of united fractures. Return of shoulder function was based on the age- and sex-matched Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand (DASH) scores for the cohort. Independent predictors of an early recovery of normal shoulder function were investigated using a separate prospective series of consecutive nonoperative displaced mid-shaft clavicular fractures recruited over a two-year period (aged ≥ 16 years). Patient demographics and functional recovery were assessed over the six months post-injury using a standardized protocol.Aims
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Improvised Explosive Device (IED) attacks on vehicles have been a significant feature of recent conflicts. The Dynamic Response Index (DRI), developed for predicting spinal injury in aircraft ejection, has been adopted for testing vehicles in underbelly blast. Recent papers suggest that DRI is not accurate in blast conditions. We suggest that the distribution of blast and ejection injuries is different. A literature review identified the distribution of spinal fractures in aircraft ejection incidents. A Joint Theatre Trauma Registry search identified victims of mounted IED blast with spinal fractures. The distribution of injuries in the two groups was compared using the Kruskall Wallis test. 329 fractures were identified in ejector seat incidents; 1% cervical, 84% thoracic and 16% lumbar. 245 fractures were identified in victims of mounted blast; 16% cervical, 34% thoracic and 50% lumbar. There was no significant similarity between the two (p=1). There was no statistically significant difference between the distribution of fractures in blast survivors versus fatalities. The difference between blast and ejection injury patterns suggests that injury
The primary aim of this study was to identify independent predictors associated with nonunion and delayed union of tibial diaphyseal fractures treated with intramedullary nailing. The secondary aim was to assess the Radiological Union Scale for Tibial fractures (RUST) score as an early predictor of tibial fracture nonunion. A consecutive series of 647 patients who underwent intramedullary nailing for tibial diaphyseal fractures were identified from a trauma database. Demographic data, comorbidities, smoking status, alcohol consumption, use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), and steroid use were documented. Details regarding mechanism of injury, fracture classification, complications, and further surgery were recorded. Nonunion was defined as the requirement for revision surgery to achieve union. Delayed union was defined as a RUST score < 10 at six months postoperatively.Aims
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Open fractures of the tibia are a heterogeneous group of injuries that can present a number of challenges to the treating surgeon. Consequently, few surgeons can reliably advise patients and relatives about the expected outcomes. The aim of this study was to determine whether these outcomes are predictable by using the Ganga Hospital Score (GHS). This has been shown to be a useful method of scoring open injuries to inform wound management and decide between limb salvage and amputation. We collected data on 182 consecutive patients with a type II, IIIA, or IIIB open fracture of the tibia who presented to our hospital between July and December 2016. For the purposes of the study, the patients were jointly treated by experienced consultant orthopaedic and plastic surgeons who determined the type of treatment. Separately, the study team (SP, HS, AD, JD) independently calculated the GHS and prospectively collected data on six outcomes for each patient. These included time to bony union, number of admissions, length of hospital stay, total length of treatment, final functional score, and number of operations. Spearman’s correlation was used to compare GHS with each outcome. Forward stepwise linear regression was used to generate predictive models based on components of the GHS. Five-fold cross-validation was used to prevent models from over-fitting.Aims
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Patients who sustain neck of femur fractures are at high risk of malnutrition. Our intention was to assess to what extent malnutrition was associated with worse patient outcomes. A total of 1,199 patients with femoral neck fractures presented to a large UK teaching hospital over a three-year period. All patients had nutritional assessments performed using the Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool (MUST). Malnutrition risk was compared to mortality, length of hospital stay, and discharge destination using logistic regression. Adjustments were made for covariates to identify whether malnutrition risk independently affected these outcomes.Aims
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