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Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 4, Issue 3 | Pages 168 - 181
14 Mar 2023
Dijkstra H Oosterhoff JHF van de Kuit A IJpma FFA Schwab JH Poolman RW Sprague S Bzovsky S Bhandari M Swiontkowski M Schemitsch EH Doornberg JN Hendrickx LAM

Aims. To develop prediction models using machine-learning (ML) algorithms for 90-day and one-year mortality prediction in femoral neck fracture (FNF) patients aged 50 years or older based on the Hip fracture Evaluation with Alternatives of Total Hip arthroplasty versus Hemiarthroplasty (HEALTH) and Fixation using Alternative Implants for the Treatment of Hip fractures (FAITH) trials. Methods. This study included 2,388 patients from the HEALTH and FAITH trials, with 90-day and one-year mortality proportions of 3.0% (71/2,388) and 6.4% (153/2,388), respectively. The mean age was 75.9 years (SD 10.8) and 65.9% of patients (1,574/2,388) were female. The algorithms included patient and injury characteristics. Six algorithms were developed, internally validated and evaluated across discrimination (c-statistic; discriminative ability between those with risk of mortality and those without), calibration (observed outcome compared to the predicted probability), and the Brier score (composite of discrimination and calibration). Results. The developed algorithms distinguished between patients at high and low risk for 90-day and one-year mortality. The penalized logistic regression algorithm had the best performance metrics for both 90-day (c-statistic 0.80, calibration slope 0.95, calibration intercept -0.06, and Brier score 0.039) and one-year (c-statistic 0.76, calibration slope 0.86, calibration intercept -0.20, and Brier score 0.074) mortality prediction in the hold-out set. Conclusion. Using high-quality data, the ML-based prediction models accurately predicted 90-day and one-year mortality in patients aged 50 years or older with a FNF. The final models must be externally validated to assess generalizability to other populations, and prospectively evaluated in the process of shared decision-making. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(3):168–181


Bone & Joint Research
Vol. 13, Issue 4 | Pages 184 - 192
18 Apr 2024
Morita A Iida Y Inaba Y Tezuka T Kobayashi N Choe H Ike H Kawakami E

Aims. This study was designed to develop a model for predicting bone mineral density (BMD) loss of the femur after total hip arthroplasty (THA) using artificial intelligence (AI), and to identify factors that influence the prediction. Additionally, we virtually examined the efficacy of administration of bisphosphonate for cases with severe BMD loss based on the predictive model. Methods. The study included 538 joints that underwent primary THA. The patients were divided into groups using unsupervised time series clustering for five-year BMD loss of Gruen zone 7 postoperatively, and a machine-learning model to predict the BMD loss was developed. Additionally, the predictor for BMD loss was extracted using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). The patient-specific efficacy of bisphosphonate, which is the most important categorical predictor for BMD loss, was examined by calculating the change in predictive probability when hypothetically switching between the inclusion and exclusion of bisphosphonate. Results. Time series clustering allowed us to divide the patients into two groups, and the predictive factors were identified including patient- and operation-related factors. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) for the BMD loss prediction averaged 0.734. Virtual administration of bisphosphonate showed on average 14% efficacy in preventing BMD loss of zone 7. Additionally, stem types and preoperative triglyceride (TG), creatinine (Cr), estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and creatine kinase (CK) showed significant association with the estimated patient-specific efficacy of bisphosphonate. Conclusion. Periprosthetic BMD loss after THA is predictable based on patient- and operation-related factors, and optimal prescription of bisphosphonate based on the prediction may prevent BMD loss. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2024;13(4):184–192


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 106-B, Issue 1 | Pages 19 - 27
1 Jan 2024
Tang H Guo S Ma Z Wang S Zhou Y

Aims. The aim of this study was to evaluate the reliability and validity of a patient-specific algorithm which we developed for predicting changes in sagittal pelvic tilt after total hip arthroplasty (THA). Methods. This retrospective study included 143 patients who underwent 171 THAs between April 2019 and October 2020 and had full-body lateral radiographs preoperatively and at one year postoperatively. We measured the pelvic incidence (PI), the sagittal vertical axis (SVA), pelvic tilt, sacral slope (SS), lumbar lordosis (LL), and thoracic kyphosis to classify patients into types A, B1, B2, B3, and C. The change of pelvic tilt was predicted according to the normal range of SVA (0 mm to 50 mm) for types A, B1, B2, and B3, and based on the absolute value of one-third of the PI-LL mismatch for type C patients. The reliability of the classification of the patients and the prediction of the change of pelvic tilt were assessed using kappa values and intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs), respectively. Validity was assessed using the overall mean error and mean absolute error (MAE) for the prediction of the change of pelvic tilt. Results. The kappa values were 0.927 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.861 to 0.992) and 0.945 (95% CI 0.903 to 0.988) for the inter- and intraobserver reliabilities, respectively, and the ICCs ranged from 0.919 to 0.997. The overall mean error and MAE for the prediction of the change of pelvic tilt were -0.3° (SD 3.6°) and 2.8° (SD 2.4°), respectively. The overall absolute change of pelvic tilt was 5.0° (SD 4.1°). Pre- and postoperative values and changes in pelvic tilt, SVA, SS, and LL varied significantly among the five types of patient. Conclusion. We found that the proposed algorithm was reliable and valid for predicting the standing pelvic tilt after THA. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(1):19–27


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 103-B, Issue 3 | Pages 469 - 478
1 Mar 2021
Garland A Bülow E Lenguerrand E Blom A Wilkinson M Sayers A Rolfson O Hailer NP

Aims. To develop and externally validate a parsimonious statistical prediction model of 90-day mortality after elective total hip arthroplasty (THA), and to provide a web calculator for clinical usage. Methods. We included 53,099 patients with cemented THA due to osteoarthritis from the Swedish Hip Arthroplasty Registry for model derivation and internal validation, as well as 125,428 patients from England and Wales recorded in the National Joint Register for England, Wales, Northern Ireland, the Isle of Man, and the States of Guernsey (NJR) for external model validation. A model was developed using a bootstrap ranking procedure with a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression model combined with piecewise linear regression. Discriminative ability was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Calibration belt plots were used to assess model calibration. Results. A main effects model combining age, sex, American Society for Anesthesiologists (ASA) class, the presence of cancer, diseases of the central nervous system, kidney disease, and diagnosed obesity had good discrimination, both internally (AUC = 0.78, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.75 to 0.81) and externally (AUC = 0.75, 95% CI 0.73 to 0.76). This model was superior to traditional models based on the Charlson (AUC = 0.66, 95% CI 0.62 to 0.70) and Elixhauser (AUC = 0.64, 95% CI 0.59 to 0.68) comorbidity indices. The model was well calibrated for predicted probabilities up to 5%. Conclusion. We developed a parsimonious model that may facilitate individualized risk assessment prior to one of the most common surgical interventions. We have published a web calculator to aid clinical decision-making. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(3):469–478


Background. Dislocation is a common complication following total hip arthroplasty (THA), and accounts for a high percentage of subsequent revisions. The purpose of this study was to develop a convolutional neural network (CNN) model to identify patients at high risk for dislocation based on postoperative anteroposterior (AP) pelvis radiographs. Methods. We retrospectively evaluated radiographs for a cohort of 13,970 primary THAs with 374 dislocations over 5 years of follow-up. Overall, 1,490 radiographs from dislocated and 91,094 from non-dislocated THAs were included in the analysis. A CNN object detection model (YOLO-V3) was trained to crop the images by centering on the femoral head. A ResNet18 classifier was trained to predict subsequent hip dislocation from the cropped imaging. The ResNet18 classifier was initialized with ImageNet weights and trained using FastAI (V1.0) running on PyTorch. The training was run for 15 epochs using ten-fold cross validation, data oversampling and augmentation. Results. The hip dislocation prediction classifier achieved the following mean performance: accuracy= 49.5(±4.1)%, sensitivity= 89.0(±2.2)%, specificity= 48.8(±4.2)%, positive predictive value= 3.3(±0.3)%, negative predictive value= 99.5(±0.1)%, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve= 76.7(±3.6)%. Saliency maps demonstrated that the model placed the greatest emphasis on the femoral head and acetabular component. Conclusions. Existing prediction methods fail to identify patients at high risk of dislocation following THA. Our prediction model has high sensitivity and negative predictive value. Therefore, it can be helpful in rapid assessment of risk for dislocation following THA. The model further suggests radiographic locations which may be important in understanding the etiology of prosthesis dislocation


Orthopaedic Proceedings
Vol. 101-B, Issue SUPP_12 | Pages 68 - 68
1 Oct 2019
Bedair HS
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Background. Postoperative recovery after routine total hip arthroplasty (THA) can lead to the development of prolonged opioid use but there are few tools for predicting this adverse outcome. The purpose of this study was to develop machine learning algorithms for preoperative prediction of prolonged post-operative opioid use after THA. Methods. A retrospective review of electronic health records was conducted at two academic medical centers and three community hospitals to identify adult patients who underwent THA for osteoarthritis between January 1. st. , 2000 and August 1. st. , 2018. Prolonged postoperative opioid prescriptions were defined as continuous opioid prescriptions after surgery to at least 90 days after surgery. Five machine learning algorithms were developed to predict this outcome and were assessed by discrimination, calibration, and decision curve analysis. Results. Overall, 5507 patients underwent THA, of which 345 (6.3%) had prolonged postoperative opioid prescriptions. The factors determined for prediction of prolonged postoperative opioid prescriptions were: age, duration of pre-operative opioid exposure, preoperative hemoglobin, and certain preoperative medications (anti-depressants, benzodiazepines, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, and beta-2-agonists). The elastic-net penalized logistic regression model achieved the best performance across discrimination (c-statistic = 0.77), calibration, and decision curve analysis. This model was incorporated into a digital application able to provide both predictions and explanations; available here: . https://sorg-apps.shinyapps.io/thaopioid/. Conclusion. If externally validated in independent populations, the algorithms developed in this study could improve preoperative screening and support for THA patients at high-risk for prolonged postoperative opioid use. Early identification and intervention in high-risk cases may mitigate the long-term adverse consequence of opioid dependence. For any tables or figures, please contact the authors directly


Orthopaedic Proceedings
Vol. 102-B, Issue SUPP_5 | Pages 16 - 16
1 Jul 2020
Evans J Blom A Howell J Timperley J Wilson M Whitehouse S Sayers A Whitehouse M
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Total hip replacements (THRs) provide pain relief and improved function to thousands of patients suffering from end-stage osteoarthritis, every year. Over 800 different THR constructs were implanted in the UK in 2017. To ensure reliable implants are used, a NICE revision benchmark of 5% after 10 years exists. Given the 10-year cumulative mortality of patients under 55 years of age receiving THRs is only 5% and that a recent study suggests 25-year THR survival of 58%, we aim to produce revision estimates out to 30 years that may guide future long-term benchmarks. The local database of the Princess Elizabeth Orthopaedic Centre (PEOC), Exeter, holds data on over 20,000 patients with nearly 30-years follow-up with contemporary prostheses. A previous study suggests that the results of this centre are generalisable if comparisons restricted to the same prostheses. Via flexible parametric survival analysis, we created an algorithm using this database, for revision of any part of the construct for any reason, controlling for age and gender. This algorithm was applied to 664,761 patients in the NJR who have undergone THR, producing a revision prediction for patients with the same prostheses as those used at this centre. Using our algorithm, the 10-year predicted revision rate of THRs in the NJR was 2.2% (95% CI 1.8, 2.7) based on a 68-year-old female patient; well below the current NICE benchmark. Our predictions were validated by comparison to the maximum observed survival in the NJR (14.2 years) using restricted mean survival time (P=0.32). Our predicted cumulative revision estimate after 30 years is 6.5% (95% CI 4.5, 9.4). The low observed and predicted revision rate with the prosthesis combinations studied, suggest current benchmarks may be lowered and new ones introduced at 15 and 20 years to encourage the use of prostheses with high survival


Orthopaedic Proceedings
Vol. 106-B, Issue SUPP_6 | Pages 12 - 12
2 May 2024
Selim A Al-Hadithy N Diab N Ahmed A Kader KA Hegazy M Abdelazeem H Barakat A
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Lag screw cut-out is a serious complication of dynamic hip screw fixation in trochanteric hip fractures. Lag screw position is recognised as a crucial factor influencing the occurrence of lag screw cut-out. We propose a modification of the Tip Apex Distance (TAD) and hypothesize that it could enhance the reliability of predicting lag screw cut-out in these injuries.

A retrospective study of hip fracture cases was conducted from January 2018 to July 2022. A total of 109 patients were eligible for the final analysis. The modified TAD was measured in millimetres, based on the sum of the traditional TAD in the lateral view and the net value of two distances in the anteroposterior (AP) view. The first distance is from the lag screw tip to the opposite point on the femoral head along the lag screw axis, while the second distance is from that point to the femoral head apex. The first distance is a positive value, whereas the second distance is positive if the lag screw is superior and negative if it is inferior. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to assess the reliability of various parameters for evaluating the lag screw position within the femoral head.

Factors such as reduction quality, fracture pattern according to the AO/OTA classification, TAD, Calcar-Referenced TAD, Axis Blade Angle, Parker’s ratio in the AP view, Cleveland Zone 1, and modified TAD were statistically associated with lag screw cut-out. Among the tested parameters, the novel parameter exhibited 90.1% sensitivity and 90.9% specificity for predicting lag screw cut-out at a cut-off value of 25 mm, with a p-value < 0.001.

The modified TAD demonstrated the highest reliability in predicting lag screw cut-out. A value of 25 mm may potentially reduce the risk of lag screw cut-out in trochanteric hip fractures.


Orthopaedic Proceedings
Vol. 100-B, Issue SUPP_9 | Pages 31 - 31
1 May 2018
Aram P Trela-Larsen L Sayers A Hills A Blom A McCloskey E Kadirkamanathan V Wilkinson J
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Introduction

The development of an algorithm that provides accurate individualised estimates of revision risk could help patients make informed surgical treatment choices. This requires building a survival model based on fixed and modifiable risk factors that predict outcome at the individual level. Here we compare different survival models for predicting prosthesis survivorship after hip replacement for osteoarthritis using data from the National Joint Registry for England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Isle of Man (NJR).

Methods

In this comparative study we implemented parametric and flexible parametric (FP) methods and random survival forests (RSF). The overall performance of the parametric models was compared using Akaike information criterion (AIC). The preferred parametric model and the RSF algorithm were further compared in terms of the Brier score, concordance index and calibration via repeated five-fold cross-validation.


Orthopaedic Proceedings
Vol. 101-B, Issue SUPP_6 | Pages 32 - 32
1 May 2019
Palit A King R Gu Y Pierrepont J Hart Z Elliott M Williams M
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Background

It is not always clear why some patients experience recurrent dislocation following total hip arthroplasty (THA). In order to plan appropriate revision surgery for such patients, however, it is important to understand the specific biomechanical basis for the dislocation. We have developed a novel method to analyse the biomechanical profile of the THA, specifically to identify edge loading and prosthetic impingement, taking into account spinopelvic mobility. In this study we compare the results of this analysis in THA patients with and without recurrent dislocation.

Methods

Post-operative CT scans and lateral standing and seated radiographs of 40 THA patients were performed, 20 of whom had experienced postoperative dislocation. The changes in pelvic and femoral positions on the lateral radiographs were measured between the standing and seated positions, and a 3D digital model was then generated to simulate the movement of the hip when rising from a chair for each patient. The path of the joint reaction force (JRF) across the acetabular bearing surface and the motion of the femoral neck relative to the acetabular margin were then calculated for this “sit-to-stand” movement, in order to identify where there was risk of edge loading or prosthetic impingement.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 101-B, Issue 1 | Pages 104 - 112
1 Jan 2019
Bülow E Cnudde P Rogmark C Rolfson O Nemes S

Aims

Our aim was to examine the Elixhauser and Charlson comorbidity indices, based on administrative data available before surgery, and to establish their predictive value for mortality for patients who underwent hip arthroplasty in the management of a femoral neck fracture.

Patients and Methods

We analyzed data from 42 354 patients from the Swedish Hip Arthroplasty Register between 2005 and 2012. Only the first operated hip was included for patients with bilateral arthroplasty. We obtained comorbidity data by linkage from the Swedish National Patient Register, as well as death dates from the national population register. We used univariable Cox regression models to predict mortality based on the comorbidity indices, as well as multivariable regression with age and gender. Predictive power was evaluated by a concordance index, ranging from 0.5 to 1 (with the higher value being the better predictive power). A concordance index less than 0.7 was considered poor. We used bootstrapping for internal validation of the results.


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 82-B, Issue 4 | Pages 512 - 516
1 May 2000
Miyanishi K Noguchi Y Yamamoto T Irisa T Suenaga E Jingushi S Sugioka Y Iwamoto Y

We have studied the correlation between the prevention of progressive collapse and the ratio of the intact articular surface of the femoral head, after transtrochanteric rotational osteotomy for osteonecrosis. We used probit analysis on 125 hips in order to assess the ratio necessary to prevent progressive radiological collapse over a ten-year period. The results show that a minimum postoperative intact ratio of 34% was required. This critical ratio may be useful for surgical planning and in assessing the natural history of the condition.


The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery British Volume
Vol. 81-B, Issue 2 | Pages 273 - 280
1 Mar 1999
Krismer M Biedermann R Stöckl B Fischer M Bauer R Haid C

We report the ten-year results for three designs of stem in 240 total hip replacements, for which subsidence had been measured on plain radiographs at regular intervals. Accurate migration patterns could be determined by the method of Einzel-Bild-Roentgen-Analyse-femoral component analysis (EBRA-FCA) for 158 hips (66%).

Of these, 108 stems (68%) remained stable throughout, and five (3%) started to migrate after a median of 54 months. Initial migration of at least 1 mm was seen in 45 stems (29%) during the first two years, but these then became stable. We revised 17 stems for aseptic loosening, and 12 for other reasons. Revision for aseptic loosening could be predicted by EBRA-FCA with a sensitivity of 69%, a specificity of 80%, and an accuracy of 79% by the use of a threshold of subsidence of 1.5 mm during the first two years. Similar observations over a five-year period allowed the long-term outcome to be predicted with an accuracy of 91%.

We discuss the importance of four different patterns of subsidence and confirm that the early measurement of migration by a reasonably accurate method can help to predict long-term outcome. Such methods should be used to evaluate new and modified designs of prosthesis.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 5, Issue 8 | Pages 671 - 680
14 Aug 2024
Fontalis A Zhao B Putzeys P Mancino F Zhang S Vanspauwen T Glod F Plastow R Mazomenos E Haddad FS

Aims. Precise implant positioning, tailored to individual spinopelvic biomechanics and phenotype, is paramount for stability in total hip arthroplasty (THA). Despite a few studies on instability prediction, there is a notable gap in research utilizing artificial intelligence (AI). The objective of our pilot study was to evaluate the feasibility of developing an AI algorithm tailored to individual spinopelvic mechanics and patient phenotype for predicting impingement. Methods. This international, multicentre prospective cohort study across two centres encompassed 157 adults undergoing primary robotic arm-assisted THA. Impingement during specific flexion and extension stances was identified using the virtual range of motion (ROM) tool of the robotic software. The primary AI model, the Light Gradient-Boosting Machine (LGBM), used tabular data to predict impingement presence, direction (flexion or extension), and type. A secondary model integrating tabular data with plain anteroposterior pelvis radiographs was evaluated to assess for any potential enhancement in prediction accuracy. Results. We identified nine predictors from an analysis of baseline spinopelvic characteristics and surgical planning parameters. Using fivefold cross-validation, the LGBM achieved 70.2% impingement prediction accuracy. With impingement data, the LGBM estimated direction with 85% accuracy, while the support vector machine (SVM) determined impingement type with 72.9% accuracy. After integrating imaging data with a multilayer perceptron (tabular) and a convolutional neural network (radiograph), the LGBM’s prediction was 68.1%. Both combined and LGBM-only had similar impingement direction prediction rates (around 84.5%). Conclusion. This study is a pioneering effort in leveraging AI for impingement prediction in THA, utilizing a comprehensive, real-world clinical dataset. Our machine-learning algorithm demonstrated promising accuracy in predicting impingement, its type, and direction. While the addition of imaging data to our deep-learning algorithm did not boost accuracy, the potential for refined annotations, such as landmark markings, offers avenues for future enhancement. Prior to clinical integration, external validation and larger-scale testing of this algorithm are essential. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(8):671–680


Orthopaedic Proceedings
Vol. 106-B, Issue SUPP_6 | Pages 21 - 21
2 May 2024
Palit A Kiraci E Seemala V Gupta V Williams M King R
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Ideally the hip arthroplasty should not be subject to bony or prosthetic impingement, in order to minimise complications and optimise outcomes. Modern 3d planning permits pre-operative simulation of the movements of the planned hip arthroplasty to check for such impingement. For this to be meaningful, however, it is necessary to know the range of movement (ROM) that should be simulated. Arbitrary “normal” values for hip ROM are of limited value in such simulations: it is well known that hip ROM is individualised for each patient. We have therefore developed a method to determine this individualised ROM using CT scans. CT scans were performed on 14 cadaveric hips, and the images were segmented to create 3d virtual models. Using Matlab software, each virtual hip was moved in all potential directions to the point of bony impingement, thus defining an individualised impingement-free 3d ROM envelope. This was then compared with the actual ROM as directly measured from each cadaver using a high-resolution motion capture system. For each hip, the ROM envelope free of bony impingement could be described from the CT and represented as a 3d shape. As expected, the directly measured ROM from the cadaver study for each hip was smaller than the CT-based prediction, owing to the presence of constraining soft tissues. However, for movements associated with hip dislocation (such as flexion with internal rotation), the cadaver measurements matched the CT prediction, to within 10°. It is possible to determine an individual's range of clinically important hip movements from a CT scan. This method could therefore be used to create truly personalised movement simulation as part of pre-operative 3d surgical planning


Orthopaedic Proceedings
Vol. 105-B, Issue SUPP_12 | Pages 85 - 85
23 Jun 2023
de Mello F Kadirkamanathan V Wilkinson JM
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Successful estimation of postoperative PROMs prior to a joint replacement surgery is important in deciding the best treatment option for a patient. However, estimation of the outcome is associated with substantial noise around individual prediction. Here, we test whether a classifier neural network can be used to simultaneously estimate postoperative PROMs and uncertainty better than current methods. We perform Oxford hip score (OHS) estimation using data collected by the NJR from 249,634 hip replacement surgeries performed from 2009 to 2018. The root mean square error (RMSE) of the various methods are compared to the standard deviation of outcome change distribution to measure the proportion of the total outcome variability that the model can capture. The area under the curve (AUC) for the probability of the change score being above a certain threshold was also plotted. The proposed classifier NN had a better or equivalent RMSE than all other currently used models. The threshold AUC shows similar results for all methods close to a change score of 20 but demonstrates better accuracy of the classifier neural network close to 0 change and greater than 30 change, showing that the full probability distribution performed by the classifier neural network resulted in a significant improvement in estimating the upper and lower quantiles of the change score probability distribution. Consequently, probabilistic estimation as performed by the classifier NN is the most adequate approach to this problem, since the final score has an important component of uncertainty. This study shows the importance of uncertainty estimation to accompany postoperative PROMs prediction and presents a clinically-meaningful method for personalised outcome that includes such uncertainty estimation


Total hip arthroplasty has been constantly evolving with technological improvements to achieve the best survival rates. Although the new implants are under closer surveillance through processes such as Beyond Compliance, orthopaedic surgeons generally tend to look out for the latest implants with good short-term results and hope for better long-term results for these. We questioned whether such an assumption or bias is valid. We analysed the data of Kaplan-Meier estimates of cumulative revisions of primary hip replacement by fixation, stem/cup brand and bearing combinations from the NJR 19th Annual Report published in September 2022. We performed a univariate linear regression analysis to predict the 10- and 15-year revision rates for these different hip implant combinations from the 3- and 5-year revision rates. Thirty-seven implant combinations had their 15-year revision rates reported and 67 had the 10-year revision rates. The correlation co-efficients were 0.43 and 0.58 for the 3-year and 5-year revision rates against 15-year revision rates. Only 17% of the variance in 15-year revision rates could be predicted by a linear regression model from the 3-year revision rate and 32% from the 5-year revision rate. Corresponding values for the 10-year revision rates were 46% and 67%. 95% prediction intervals for the 15-year revision rate were +/− 3.1% from the 3-year revision rate and +/− 2.8% from the 5-year revision rate. Corresponding values for the 10-year revision rates were +/− 1.3% and +/− 1%. 19 of 37 implant combinations showed 15-year revision rate of more than 4%. Average 3-year and 5-year revision rates for this cohort was 1.0% and 1.42% compared to 1.4% and 1.9% for the rest and the difference was statistically significant. Although average early revision rates showed small but significant difference between the groups with lower and higher 15-year revision rates, the prediction intervals for 15-year revision rates for individual hips based on their 3-year and 5-year revision rates are very wide. Three- and 5-year revision rates for primary total hip replacements are poor predictors of 15-year revision rates


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 105-B, Issue 7 | Pages 760 - 767
1 Jul 2023
Tanaka S Fujii M Kawano S Ueno M Sonohata M Kitajima M Mawatari D Mawatari M

Aims. The aims of this study were to validate the Forgotten Joint Score-12 (FJS-12) in the postoperative evaluation of periacetabular osteotomy (PAO), identify factors associated with joint awareness after PAO, and determine the FJS-12 threshold for patient-acceptable symptom state (PASS). Methods. Data from 686 patients (882 hips) with hip dysplasia who underwent transposition osteotomy of the acetabulum, a type of PAO, between 1998 and 2019 were reviewed. After screening the study included 442 patients (582 hips; response rate, 78%). Patients who completed a study questionnaire consisting of the visual analogue scale (VAS) for pain and satisfaction, FJS-12, and Hip disability and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (HOOS) were included. The ceiling effects, internal consistency, convergent validity, and PASS thresholds of FJS-12 were investigated. Results. The median follow-up was 12 years (interquartile range 7 to 16). The ceiling effect of FJS-12 was 7.2%, the lowest of all the measures examined. FJS-12 correlated with all HOOS subscales (ρ = 0.72 to 0.77, p < 0.001) and pain and satisfaction-VAS (ρ = -0.63 and 0.56, p < 0.001), suggesting good convergent validity. Cronbach’s α was 0.95 for the FJS-12, which indicated excellent internal consistency. The median FJS-12 score for preoperative Tönnis grade 0 hips (60 points) was higher than that for grade 1 (51 points) or 2 (46 points). When PASS was defined as pain-VAS < 21 and satisfaction-VAS ≥ 77, the FJS-12 threshold that maximized the sensitivity and specificity for detecting PASS was 50 points (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.85). Conclusion. Our results suggest that FJS-12 is a valid and reliable assessment tool for patients undergoing PAO, and the threshold of 50 points may be useful to determine patient satisfaction following PAO in clinical settings. Further investigation of the factors influencing postoperative joint awareness may enable improved prediction of treatment efficacy and informed decision-making regarding the indication of PAO. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(7):760–767


Orthopaedic Proceedings
Vol. 104-B, Issue SUPP_4 | Pages 5 - 5
1 Apr 2022
de Mello F Kadirkamanathan V Wilkinson M
Full Access

Successful estimation of postoperative PROMs prior to a joint replacement surgery is important in deciding the best treatment option for a patient. However, estimation of the outcome is associated with substantial noise around individual prediction. Here, we test whether a classifier neural network can be used to simultaneously estimate postoperative PROMs and uncertainty better than current methods. We perform Oxford hip score (OHS) estimation using data collected by the NJR from 249,634 hip replacement surgeries performed from 2009 to 2018. The root mean square error (RMSE) of the various methods are compared to the standard deviation of outcome change distribution to measure the proportion of the total outcome variability that the model can capture. The area under the curve (AUC) for the probability of the change score being above a certain threshold was also plotted. The proposed classifier NN had a better or equivalent RMSE than all other currently used models. The standard deviation for the change score for the entire population was 9.93, which can be interpreted as the RMSE that would be achieved for a model that gives the same estimation for all patients regardless of the covariates. However, most of the variation in the postoperative OHS/OKS change score is not captured by the models, confirming the importance of accurate uncertainty estimation. The threshold AUC shows similar results for all methods close to a change score of 20 but demonstrates better accuracy of the classifier neural network close to 0 change and greater than 30 change, showing that the full probability distribution performed by the classifier neural network resulted in a significant improvement in estimating the upper and lower quantiles of the change score probability distribution. Consequently, probabilistic estimation as performed by the classifier NN is the most adequate approach to this problem, since the final score has an important component of uncertainty. This study shows the importance of uncertainty estimation to accompany postoperative PROMs prediction and presents a clinically-meaningful method for personalised outcome that includes such uncertainty estimation


Orthopaedic Proceedings
Vol. 106-B, Issue SUPP_16 | Pages 23 - 23
19 Aug 2024
Sionek A Bąbik B Czubak J
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Spasticity used to be considered a contraindication for total hip replacement (THR) procedures. Due to the development of implants as well as surgical skills, THR became an option for the treatment of painful dislocation of the hip joint in patients with spastic plegia. The aim of this study was an evaluation of mid-term results of THR in spastic CP adolescent patients with painful hips with hip joint subluxation or dislocation. In 2014–2022, 18 pts (19 hips) with CP aged 16 to 20 years underwent THR in our department. The mean follow-up was 4 years (range: 1 – 9 years). Results were evaluated using the Gross Motor Function Scale, VAS scale in accordance with the Ashworth scale, types of implants used (dual mobility cup and not dual mobility cup), and radiological assessment (Crowe scale). Complications have been thoroughly analyzed. In 10 pts there has been an improvement in the GMFSC scale average from 1 to 2 points observed after the surgery. All pts have improved in the VAS scale average of 8 points (from 10 to 7). According to the Crowe scale repositioning of preoperative dislocation to primary acetabulum was achieved in all cases. Complications occurred in 4 cases: dislocations of 2 THR with dual mobility cup and 2 THR with non-dual mobility cup requiring revision surgery with good final result. No statistical significance was noted according to the type of cup (Mann-Whitney U Test). The most important risk factor for complications is severe spasticity. We believe, that CP pts with painful hips should be treated using THR. We didn't observe any significant differences between the types of implants. These findings may serve as a basis for the prediction of outcomes of THR treatment in this specific group of pts. Level of evidence: Case-control or retrospective comparative study-Level III