Background: Structural hip deformities including developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH) and femoroacetabular impingement (FAI) are thought to predispose patients to degenerative joint changes. However, the natural history of these malformations is not clearly delineated. Methods: Seven-hundred twenty-two patients ≤55 years that received unilateral primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) from 1980–1989 were identified. Pre-operative radiographs were reviewed on the contralateral hip and only hips with Tönnis Grade 0 degenerative change that had minimum 10-year radiographic follow-up were included. Radiographic metrics in conjunction with the review of two experienced arthroplasty surgeons determined structural hip diagnosis as DDH, FAI, or normal morphology. Every available follow-up AP radiograph was reviewed to determine progression from Tönnis Grade 0–3 until the time of last follow-up or operative intervention with THA. Survivorship was analyzed by Kaplan-Meier methodology, hazard ratios, and multi-state modeling. Results: One-hundred sixty-two patients met all eligibility criteria with the following structural diagnoses: 48 DDH, 74 FAI, and 40 normal. Mean age at the time of study inclusion was 47 years (range 18–55), with 56% females. Mean follow-up was 20 years (range 10 – 35 years). Thirty-five patients eventually required THA: 16 (33.3%) DDH, 13 (17.6%) FAI, 6 (15.0%) normal. Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated that patients with DDH progressed most rapidly, followed by FAI, with normal hips progressing the slowest. The mean number of years spent in each Tönnis stage by structural morphology was as follows: Tönnis 0: DDH = 17.0 years, FAI = 14.8 years, normal = 22.9 years; Tönnis 1: DDH = 12.2 years, FAI = 13.3 years, normal = 17.5 years; Tönnis 2: DDH = 6.0 years, FAI = 9.7 years, normal = 8.6 years; Tönnis 3: DDH = 1.6 years, FAI = 2.6 years, normal = 0.2 years. Analysis of degenerative risk for categorical variables showed that patients with femoral head lateralization >10 mm, femoral head extrusion indices >0.25, acetabular depth-to-width index <0.38, lateral center-edge angle <25 degrees, and Tönnis angle >10 degrees all had a greater risk of progression from Tönnis 0 to Tönnis 3 or THA. Among patients with FAI morphology, femoral head extrusion indices >0.25, lateral center-edge angle <25 degrees, and Tönnis angle >10 degrees all increased the risk of early radiographic progression. Analysis of degenerative risk for continuous variables using smoothing splines showed that risk was increased for the following: femoral head lateralization >8 mm,
