Aims. To develop prediction models using machine-learning (ML) algorithms for 90-day and one-year mortality prediction in femoral neck fracture (FNF) patients aged 50 years or older based on the Hip fracture Evaluation with Alternatives of Total Hip arthroplasty versus Hemiarthroplasty (HEALTH) and Fixation using Alternative Implants for the Treatment of Hip fractures (FAITH) trials. Methods. This study included 2,388 patients from the HEALTH and FAITH trials, with 90-day and one-year mortality proportions of 3.0% (71/2,388) and 6.4% (153/2,388), respectively. The mean age was 75.9 years (SD 10.8) and 65.9% of patients (1,574/2,388) were female. The algorithms included patient and injury characteristics. Six algorithms were developed, internally validated and evaluated across discrimination (c-statistic; discriminative ability between those with risk of mortality and those without), calibration (observed outcome compared to the predicted probability), and the Brier score (composite of discrimination and calibration). Results. The developed algorithms distinguished between patients at high and low risk for 90-day and one-year mortality. The penalized logistic regression algorithm had the best performance metrics for both 90-day (c-statistic 0.80, calibration slope 0.95, calibration intercept -0.06, and Brier score 0.039) and one-year (c-statistic 0.76, calibration slope 0.86, calibration intercept -0.20, and Brier score 0.074) mortality prediction in the hold-out set. Conclusion. Using high-quality data, the ML-based prediction models accurately predicted 90-day and one-year mortality in patients aged 50 years or older with a FNF. The final models must be externally validated to assess generalizability to other populations, and prospectively evaluated in the process of shared decision-making. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(3):168–181

Aims. To develop and externally validate a parsimonious statistical prediction model of 90-day mortality after elective total hip arthroplasty (THA), and to provide a web calculator for clinical usage. Methods. We included 53,099 patients with cemented THA due to osteoarthritis from the Swedish Hip Arthroplasty Registry for model derivation and internal validation, as well as 125,428 patients from England and Wales recorded in the National Joint Register for England, Wales, Northern Ireland, the Isle of Man, and the States of Guernsey (NJR) for external model validation. A model was developed using a bootstrap ranking procedure with a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression model combined with piecewise linear regression. Discriminative ability was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Calibration belt plots were used to assess model calibration. Results. A main effects model combining age, sex, American Society for Anesthesiologists (ASA) class, the presence of cancer, diseases of the central nervous system, kidney disease, and diagnosed obesity had good discrimination, both internally (AUC = 0.78, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.75 to 0.81) and externally (AUC = 0.75, 95% CI 0.73 to 0.76). This model was superior to traditional models based on the Charlson (AUC = 0.66, 95% CI 0.62 to 0.70) and Elixhauser (AUC = 0.64, 95% CI 0.59 to 0.68) comorbidity indices. The model was well calibrated for predicted probabilities up to 5%. Conclusion. We developed a parsimonious model that may facilitate individualized risk assessment prior to one of the most common surgical interventions. We have published a web calculator to aid clinical decision-making. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(3):469–478

Aims. This study aimed to develop and validate a fully automated system that quantifies proximal femoral bone mineral density (BMD) from CT images. Methods. The study analyzed 978 pairs of hip CT and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) measurements of the proximal femur (DXA-BMD) collected from three institutions. From the CT images, the femur and a calibration phantom were automatically segmented using previously trained deep-learning models. The Hounsfield units of each voxel were converted into density (mg/cm. 3. ). Then, a deep-learning model trained by manual landmark selection of 315 cases was developed to select the landmarks at the proximal femur to rotate the CT volume to the neutral position. Finally, the CT volume of the femur was projected onto the coronal plane, and the areal BMD of the proximal femur (CT-aBMD) was quantified. CT-aBMD correlated to DXA-BMD, and a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis quantified the accuracy in diagnosing osteoporosis. Results. CT-aBMD was successfully measured in 976/978 hips (99.8%). A significant correlation was found between CT-aBMD and DXA-BMD (r = 0.941; p < 0.001). In the ROC analysis, the area under the curve to diagnose osteoporosis was 0.976. The diagnostic sensitivity and specificity were 88.9% and 96%, respectively, with the cutoff set at 0.625 g/cm. 2. . Conclusion. Accurate DXA-BMD measurements and diagnosis of osteoporosis were performed from CT images using the system developed herein. As the models are open-source, clinicians can use the proposed system to screen osteoporosis and determine the surgical strategy for hip surgery. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2023;12(9):590–597

Aims. Traditionally, total hip arthroplasty (THA) templating has been performed on anteroposterior (AP) pelvis radiographs. Recently, additional AP hip radiographs have been recommended for accurate measurement of the femoral offset (FO). To verify this claim, this study aimed to establish quantitative data of the measurement error of the FO in relation to leg position and X-ray source position using a newly developed geometric model and clinical data. Methods. We analyzed the FOs measured on AP hip and pelvis radiographs in a prospective consecutive series of 55 patients undergoing unilateral primary THA for hip osteoarthritis. To determine sample size, a power analysis was performed. Patients’ position and X-ray beam setting followed a standardized protocol to achieve reproducible projections. All images were calibrated with the KingMark calibration system. In addition, a geometric model was created to evaluate both the effects of leg position (rotation and abduction/adduction) and the effects of X-ray source position on FO measurement. Results. The mean FOs measured on AP hip and pelvis radiographs were 38.0 mm (SD 6.4) and 36.6 mm (SD 6.3) (p < 0.001), respectively. Radiological view had a smaller effect on FO measurement than inaccurate leg positioning. The model showed a non-linear relationship between projected FO and femoral neck orientation; at 30° external neck rotation (with reference to the detector plane), a true FO of 40 mm was underestimated by up to 20% (7.8 mm). With a neutral to mild external neck rotation (≤ 15°), the underestimation was less than 7% (2.7 mm). The effect of abduction and adduction was negligible. Conclusion. For routine THA templating, an AP pelvis radiograph remains the gold standard. Only patients with femoral neck malrotation > 15° on the AP pelvis view, e.g. due to external rotation contracture, should receive further imaging. Options include an additional AP hip view with elevation of the entire affected hip to align the femoral neck more parallel to the detector, or a CT scan in more severe cases. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(10):795–803

Cobalt chrome alloy is commonly used in joint replacement surgery. However, it is recognised that some patients develop lymphocyte mediated delayed type hypersensitivity (DTH) responses to this material, which may result in extensive bone and soft tissue destruction. Phase 1. United Kingdom: From an existing database, we identified extreme phenotype patient groups following metal on metal (MoM) hip resurfacing or THR: ALVAL with low wearing prostheses; ALVAL with high wear; no ALVAL with high wear; and asymptomatic patients with implants in situ for longer than ten years. Class I and II HLA genotype frequency distributions were compared between these patients’ groups, and in silico peptide binding studies were carried out using validated methodology. Phase 2. United Kingdom: We expanded the study to include more patients, including those with intermediary phenotypes to test whether an algorithm could be developed incorporating “risk genotypes”, patient age, sex and metal exposure. This model was trained in phase 3. Phase 3. United Kingdom, Australia, United States. Patients from other centres were invited to give DNA samples. The data set was split in two. 70% was used to develop machine learning models to predict failure secondary to DTH. The predictions were tested using the remaining blinded 30% of data, using time-dependent AUROCs, and integrated calibration index performance statistics. A total of 606 DNA samples, from 397 males and 209 female patients, were typed. This included 176 from patients with failed prostheses, and 430 from asymptomatic patients at a mean of >10 years follow up. C-index and ROC(t) scores suggested a high degree of discrimination, whilst the IBS indicated good calibration and further backed up the indication of high discriminatory ability. At ten years, the weighted mean survival probability error was < 4%. At present, there are no tests in widespread clinical use which use a patient's genetic profile to guide implant selection or inform post-operative management. The algorithm described herein may address this issue and we suggest that the application may not be restricted to the field of MoM hip arthroplasty

Background. Postoperative recovery after routine total hip arthroplasty (THA) can lead to the development of prolonged opioid use but there are few tools for predicting this adverse outcome. The purpose of this study was to develop machine learning algorithms for preoperative prediction of prolonged post-operative opioid use after THA. Methods. A retrospective review of electronic health records was conducted at two academic medical centers and three community hospitals to identify adult patients who underwent THA for osteoarthritis between January 1. st. , 2000 and August 1. st. , 2018. Prolonged postoperative opioid prescriptions were defined as continuous opioid prescriptions after surgery to at least 90 days after surgery. Five machine learning algorithms were developed to predict this outcome and were assessed by discrimination, calibration, and decision curve analysis. Results. Overall, 5507 patients underwent THA, of which 345 (6.3%) had prolonged postoperative opioid prescriptions. The factors determined for prediction of prolonged postoperative opioid prescriptions were: age, duration of pre-operative opioid exposure, preoperative hemoglobin, and certain preoperative medications (anti-depressants, benzodiazepines, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, and beta-2-agonists). The elastic-net penalized logistic regression model achieved the best performance across discrimination (c-statistic = 0.77), calibration, and decision curve analysis. This model was incorporated into a digital application able to provide both predictions and explanations; available here: . https://sorg-apps.shinyapps.io/thaopioid/. Conclusion. If externally validated in independent populations, the algorithms developed in this study could improve preoperative screening and support for THA patients at high-risk for prolonged postoperative opioid use. Early identification and intervention in high-risk cases may mitigate the long-term adverse consequence of opioid dependence. For any tables or figures, please contact the authors directly

Introduction. MAVRIC-SL (MVSL), a multi-spectral magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) sequence [1] used for visualization of tissues near hip arthroplasty, can be accelerated by a short calibration scan [2], permitting an isotropic acquisition in a clinically feasible scan time. Decreasing the repetition time (TR) can further reduce scan time. This study evaluated the feasibility of acquiring isotropic MAVRIC-SL images (MVISO) and reduced TR isotropic MAVRIC-SL images (TRMVISO) of hip arthroplasties to elucidate the added clinical benefit of such acquisitions. Methods. Following IRB approval, MVSL, MVISO and TRMVISO images were acquired for 93 hip arthroplasties (84 subjects). Images were reviewed by 2 radiologists to evaluate clinical and image quality features. Comparison of features between scanning sequences was assessed by mixed-effects ordinal logistic regression and odds ratios (OR). Inter/intra-rater agreement was determined using Gwet's agreement coefficient (AC). Results. A calibration scan permitted acquisition of isotropic image sets in under 8 minutes. MVISO and TRMVISO had decreased blurring and improved visualization of the synovium and periprosthetic bone as compared to MVSL (p<0.001, Fig. 1). MVISO and TRMVISO improved image quality features over MVSL, OR range: 1 to 968. MVISO acquisitions also had better image quality, visualization of synovium and bone, lesion conspicuity, and decreased blurring than TRMVISO (p<0.032). Substantial to perfect (0.61 ≥ AC ≥ 1.0) agreement was found for 86% of factors evaluated by the 2 readers. Conclusions. The isotropic acquisitions displayed clinically relevant features better than MVSL, with notable improvement of blurring and overall image quality. The TRMVISO altered the image contrast and contributed to poorer visualization of synovial reactions as compared to MVISO. The study demonstrated that isotropic MAVRIC scans are clinically feasible, and that MVISO scans added clinical value through improved visualization by reducing blurring. For any tables or figures, please contact the authors directly

Introduction. The development of an algorithm that provides accurate individualised estimates of revision risk could help patients make informed surgical treatment choices. This requires building a survival model based on fixed and modifiable risk factors that predict outcome at the individual level. Here we compare different survival models for predicting prosthesis survivorship after hip replacement for osteoarthritis using data from the National Joint Registry for England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Isle of Man (NJR). Methods. In this comparative study we implemented parametric and flexible parametric (FP) methods and random survival forests (RSF). The overall performance of the parametric models was compared using Akaike information criterion (AIC). The preferred parametric model and the RSF algorithm were further compared in terms of the Brier score, concordance index and calibration via repeated five-fold cross-validation. Results. The dataset contains 327 238 hip replacements for osteoarthritis carried out in England and Wales between 2003 and 2015. The AIC value for the FP model was the lowest. The averages of survival probability estimates are shown in Figure 1. The integrated Brier score of the FP model and the RSF approach over 10 years were similar: 0.011 (95% confidence interval: 0.011–0.011). The concordance index of the FP model at 10 years was 59.4% (95% confidence interval: 59.4%–59.4%). The concordance index was 56.2% (56.1%–56.3%) for the RSF method. Calibration plots for the FP model and the RSF algorithm are presented in Figure 2. Conclusion. The flexible parametric model outperformed other commonly used survival models across chosen validation criteria. However, it does not provide high discriminatory power at the individual level. This might be due to variable outcomes generated by different fixation or bearing types that cannot be captured using a single model. More complex multi-state models may provide better discrimination. For any figures and tables, please contact the authors directly

Objectives. The National Hip Fracture Database (NHFD) publishes hospital-level risk-adjusted mortality rates following hip fracture surgery in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. The performance of the risk model used by the NHFD was compared with the widely-used Nottingham Hip Fracture Score. Methods. Data from 94 hospitals on patients aged 60 to 110 who had hip fracture surgery between May 2013 and July 2013 were analysed. Data were linked to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) death register to calculate the 30-day mortality rate. Risk of death was predicted for each patient using the NHFD and Nottingham models in a development dataset using logistic regression to define the models’ coefficients. This was followed by testing the performance of these refined models in a second validation dataset. Results. The 30-day mortality rate was 5.36% in the validation dataset (n = 3861), slightly lower than the 6.40% in the development dataset (n = 4044). The NHFD and Nottingham models showed a slightly lower discrimination in the validation dataset compared with the development dataset, but both still displayed moderate discriminative power (c-statistic for NHFD = 0.71, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.67 to 0.74; Nottingham model = 0.70, 95% CI 0.68 to 0.75). Both models defined similar ranges of predicted mortality risk (1% to 18%) in assessment of calibration. Conclusions. Both models have limitations in predicting mortality for individual patients after hip fracture surgery, but the NHFD risk adjustment model performed as well as the widely-used Nottingham prognostic tool and is therefore a reasonable alternative for risk adjustment in the United Kingdom hip fracture population. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2017;6:550–556

Aims

This study was designed to develop a model for predicting bone mineral density (BMD) loss of the femur after total hip arthroplasty (THA) using artificial intelligence (AI), and to identify factors that influence the prediction. Additionally, we virtually examined the efficacy of administration of bisphosphonate for cases with severe BMD loss based on the predictive model.

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In this study, we aimed to visualize the spatial distribution characteristics of femoral head necrosis using a novel measurement method.

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Cemented hemiarthroplasty is an effective form of treatment for most patients with an intracapsular fracture of the hip. However, it remains unclear whether there are subgroups of patients who may benefit from the alternative operation of a modern uncemented hemiarthroplasty – the aim of this study was to investigate this issue. Knowledge about the heterogeneity of treatment effects is important for surgeons in order to target operations towards specific subgroups who would benefit the most.

Aims

Instability is a common cause of failure after total hip arthroplasty. A novel reverse total hip has been developed, with a femoral cup and acetabular ball, creating enhanced mechanical stability. The purpose of this study was to assess the implant fixation using radiostereometric analysis (RSA), and the clinical safety and efficacy of this novel design.

Aims

The primary aim of this trial was to compare the subsidence of two similar hydroxyapatite-coated titanium femoral components from different manufacturers. Secondary aims were to compare rotational migration (anteversion/retroversion and varus/valgus tilt) and patient-reported outcome measures between both femoral components.

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The aim of the study was to investigate whether the primary stability of press-fit acetabular components can be improved by altering the impaction procedure.

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Osteoporosis can determine surgical strategy for total hip arthroplasty (THA), and perioperative fracture risk. The aims of this study were to use hip CT to measure femoral bone mineral density (BMD) using CT X-ray absorptiometry (CTXA), determine if systematic evaluation of preoperative femoral BMD with CTXA would improve identification of osteopenia and osteoporosis compared with available preoperative dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) analysis, and determine if improved recognition of low BMD would affect the use of cemented stem fixation.

Aims

Radiostereometric analysis (RSA) is the most accurate radiological method to measure in vivo wear of highly cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE) acetabular components. We have previously reported very low wear rates for a sequentially irradiated and annealed X3 XLPE liner (Stryker Orthopaedics, USA) when used in conjunction with a 32 mm femoral heads at ten-year follow-up. Only two studies have reported the long-term wear rate of X3 liners used in conjunction with larger heads using plain radiographs which have poor sensitivity. The aim of this study was to measure the ten-year wear of thin X3 XLPE liners against larger 36 or 40 mm articulations with RSA.

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The objective of this study was to compare the two-year migration and clinical outcomes of a new cementless hydroxyapatite (HA)-coated titanium acetabular shell with its previous version, which shared the same geometrical design but a different manufacturing process for applying the titanium surface.

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The Exeter short stem was designed for patients with Dorr type A femora and short-term results are promising. The aim of this study was to evaluate the minimum five-year stem migration pattern of Exeter short stems in comparison with Exeter standard stems.

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The primary outcome was investigating differences in wear, as measured by femoral head penetration, between cross-linked vitamin E-diffused polyethylene (vE-PE) and cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE) acetabular component liners and between 32 and 36 mm head sizes at the ten-year follow-up. Secondary outcomes included acetabular component migration and patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) such as the EuroQol five-dimension questionnaire, 36-Item Short-Form Health Survey, Harris Hip Score, and University of California, Los Angeles Activity Scale (UCLA).