Aims. Surgical site infection (SSI) after soft-tissue sarcoma (STS) resection is a serious complication. The purpose of this retrospective study was to investigate the risk factors for SSI after STS resection, and to develop a nomogram that allows patient-specific risk assessment. Methods. A total of 547 patients with STS who underwent tumour resection between 2005 and 2021 were divided into a development cohort and a validation cohort. In the development cohort of 402 patients, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression model was used to screen possible risk factors of SSI. To select risk factors and construct the prediction nomogram, multivariate logistic regression was used. The predictive power of the nomogram was evaluated by receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis in the validation cohort of 145 patients. Results. LASSO regression analysis selected possible risk factors for SSI, including age, diabetes, operating time, skin graft or flap, resected tumour size, smoking, and radiation therapy. Multivariate analysis revealed that age, diabetes, smoking during the previous year, operating time, and radiation therapy were independent risk factors for SSI. A nomogram was developed based on the results of multivariate logistic regression analysis. In the development cohort, the incidence of SSI was 4.5% in the low-risk group (risk score < 6.89) and 26.6% in the high-risk group (risk score ≥ 6.89; p < 0.001). In the validation cohort, the incidence of SSI was 2.0% in the low-risk group and 15.9% in the high-risk group (p = 0.004). Conclusion. Our nomogram will enable surgeons to assess the risk of SSI in patients with STS. In patients with high risk of SSI, frequent monitoring and aggressive interventions should be considered to prevent this. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(5):492–500

Aims

This study aimed to compare the performance of survival prediction models for bone metastases of the extremities (BM-E) with pathological fractures in an Asian cohort, and investigate patient characteristics associated with survival.

Several different algorithms attempt to estimate life expectancy for patients with metastatic spine disease. The Skeletal Oncology Research Group (SORG) has recently developed a nomogram to estimate survival of patients with metastatic spine disease. Whilst the use of the SORG nomogram has been validated in the international context, there has been no study to date that validates the use of the SORG nomogram in New Zealand. This study aimed to validate the use of the SORG nomogram in Aotearoa New Zealand. We collected data on 100 patients who presented to Waikato Hospital with a diagnosis of spinal metastatic disease. The SORG nomogram gave survival probabilities for each patient at each time point. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Area Under Curve (AUC) analysis was performed to assess the predictive accuracy of the SORG score. A calibration curve was also performed, and Brier scores calculated. A multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed. The SORG score was correlated with 30 day (AUC = 0.72) and 90-day mortality (AUC = 0.71). The correlation between the SORG score and 90-day mortality was weaker (AUC = 0.69). Using this method, the nomogram was correct for 79 (79%) patients at 30-days, 59 patients (59%) at 90-days, and 42 patients (42%) at 365-days. Calibration curves demonstrated poor forecasting of the SORG nomogram at 30 (Brier score = 0.65) and 365 days (Brier score = 0.33). The calibration curve demonstrated borderline forecasting of the SORG nomogram at 90 days (Brier score = 0.28). Several components of the SORG nomogram were not found to be correlated with mortality. In this New Zealand cohort the SORG nomogram demonstrated only acceptable discrimination at best in predicting life 30-, 90- or 356-day mortality in patients with metastatic spinal disease

The February 2023 Trauma Roundup³⁶⁰ looks at: Masquelet versus bone transport in infected nonunion of tibia; Hyperbaric Oxygen for Lower Limb Trauma (HOLLT): an international multicentre randomized clinical trial; Is the T-shaped acetabular fracture really a “T”?; What causes cut-out of proximal femur nail anti-rotation device in intertrochanteric fractures?; Is the common femoral artery at risk with percutaneous fragility pelvis fixation?; Anterior pelvic ring pattern predicts displacement in lateral compression fractures; Differences in age-related characteristics among elderly patients with hip fractures.

Prediction tools are instruments which are commonly used to estimate the prognosis in oncology and facilitate clinical decision-making in a more personalized manner. Their popularity is shown by the increasing numbers of prediction tools, which have been described in the medical literature. Many of these tools have been shown to be useful in the field of soft-tissue sarcoma of the extremities (eSTS). In this annotation, we aim to provide an overview of the available prediction tools for eSTS, provide an approach for clinicians to evaluate the performance and usefulness of the available tools for their own patients, and discuss their possible applications in the management of patients with an eSTS.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(9):1011–1016.

Aims

We aimed to develop a gene signature that predicts the occurrence of postmenopausal osteoporosis (PMOP) by studying its genetic mechanism.

Aims. Heterotopic ossification (HO) is a common complication after elbow trauma and can cause severe upper limb disability. Although multiple prognostic factors have been reported to be associated with the development of post-traumatic HO, no model has yet been able to combine these predictors more succinctly to convey prognostic information and medical measures to patients. Therefore, this study aimed to identify prognostic factors leading to the formation of HO after surgery for elbow trauma, and to establish and validate a nomogram to predict the probability of HO formation in such particular injuries. Methods. This multicentre case-control study comprised 200 patients with post-traumatic elbow HO and 229 patients who had elbow trauma but without HO formation between July 2019 and December 2020. Features possibly associated with HO formation were obtained. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was used to optimize feature selection. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was applied to build the new nomogram: the Shanghai post-Traumatic Elbow Heterotopic Ossification Prediction model (STEHOP). STEHOP was validated by concordance index (C-index) and calibration plot. Internal validation was conducted using bootstrapping validation. Results. Male sex, obesity, open wound, dislocations, late definitive surgical treatment, and lack of use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs were identified as adverse predictors and incorporated to construct the STEHOP model. It displayed good discrimination with a C-index of 0.80 (95% confidence interval 0.75 to 0.84). A high C-index value of 0.77 could still be reached in the internal validation. The calibration plot showed good agreement between nomogram prediction and observed outcomes. Conclusion. The newly developed STEHOP model is a valid and convenient instrument to predict HO formation after surgery for elbow trauma. It could assist clinicians in counselling patients regarding treatment expectations and therapeutic choices. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(8):963–971

Aims. The aim of this study was to develop and internally validate a prognostic nomogram to predict the probability of gaining a functional range of motion (ROM ≥ 120°) after open arthrolysis of the elbow in patients with post-traumatic stiffness of the elbow. Methods. We developed the Shanghai Prediction Model for Elbow Stiffness Surgical Outcome (SPESSO) based on a dataset of 551 patients who underwent open arthrolysis of the elbow in four institutions. Demographic and clinical characteristics were collected from medical records. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was used to optimize the selection of relevant features. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to build the SPESSO. Its prediction performance was evaluated using the concordance index (C-index) and a calibration graph. Internal validation was conducted using bootstrapping validation. Results. BMI, the duration of stiffness, the preoperative ROM, the preoperative intensity of pain, and grade of post-traumatic osteoarthritis of the elbow were identified as predictors of outcome and incorporated to construct the nomogram. SPESSO displayed good discrimination with a C-index of 0.73 (95% confidence interval 0.64 to 0.81). A high C-index value of 0.70 could still be reached in the interval validation. The calibration graph showed good agreement between the nomogram prediction and the outcome. Conclusion. The newly developed SPESSO is a valid and convenient model which can be used to predict the outcome of open arthrolysis of the elbow. It could assist clinicians in counselling patients regarding the choice and expectations of treatment. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(4):486–494

Abstract. Introduction. Minimising postoperative complications and mortality in COVID-19 patients who were undergoing trauma and orthopaedic surgeries is an international priority. Aim was to develop a predictive nomogram for 30-day morbidity/mortality of COVID-19 infection in patients who underwent orthopaedic and trauma surgery during the coronavirus pandemic in the UK in 2020 compared to a similar period in 2019. Secondary objective was to compare between patients with positive PCR test and those with negative test. Methods. Retrospective multi-center study including 50 hospitals. Patients with suspicion of SARS-CoV-2 infection who had underwent orthopaedic or trauma surgery for any indication during the 2020 pandemic were enrolled in the study (2525 patients). We analysed cases performed on orthopaedic and trauma operative lists in 2019 for comparison (4417). Multivariable Logistic Regression analysis was performed to assess the possible predictors of a fatal outcome. A nomogram was developed with the possible predictors and total point were calculated. Results. Of the 2525 patients admitted for suspicion of COVID-19, 658 patients had negative preoperative test, 151 with positive test and 1716 with unknown preoperative COVID-19 status. Preoperative COVID-19 status, sex, ASA grade, urgency and indication of surgery, use of torniquet, grade of operating surgeon and some comorbidities were independent risk factors associated with 30-day complications/mortality. The 2020 nomogram model exhibited moderate prediction ability. In contrast, the prediction ability of total points of 2019 nomogram model was excellent. Conclusions. Nomograms can be used by orthopaedic and trauma surgeons as a practical and effective tool in postoperative complications and mortality risk estimation

Aims

The aim of this prospective cohort study was to evaluate the early migration of the TriFit cementless proximally coated tapered femoral stem using radiostereometric analysis (RSA).

Aims. Our aim was to develop and validate nomograms that would predict the cumulative incidence of sarcoma-specific death (CISSD) and disease progression (CIDP) in patients with localized high-grade primary central and dedifferentiated chondrosarcoma. Methods. The study population consisted of 391 patients from two international sarcoma centres (development cohort) who had undergone definitive surgery for a localized high-grade (histological grade II or III) conventional primary central chondrosarcoma or dedifferentiated chondrosarcoma. Disease progression captured the first event of either metastasis or local recurrence. An independent cohort of 221 patients from three additional hospitals was used for external validation. Two nomograms were internally and externally validated for discrimination (c-index) and calibration plot. Results. In the development cohort, the CISSD at ten years was 32.9% (95% confidence interval (CI) 19.8% to 38.4%). Age at diagnosis, grade, and surgical margin were found to have significant effects on CISSD and CIDP in multivariate analyses. Maximum tumour diameter was also significantly associated with CISSD. In the development cohort, the c-indices for CISSD and CIDP at five years were 0.743 (95% CI 0.700 to 0.819) and 0.761 (95% CI 0.713 to 0.800), respectively. When applied to the validation cohort, the c-indices for CISSD and CIDP at five years were 0.839 (95% CI 0.763 to 0.916) and 0.749 (95% CI 0.672 to 0.825), respectively. The calibration plots for these two nomograms demonstrated good fit. Conclusion. Our nomograms performed well on internal and external validation and can be used to predict CISSD and CIDP after resection of localized high-grade conventional primary central and dedifferentiated chondrosarcomas. They provide a new tool with which clinicians can assess and advise individual patients about their prognosis. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(12):1752–1759

Aims

The diagnosis of periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) has always been challenging. Recently, D-dimer has become a promising biomarker in diagnosing PJI. However, there is controversy regarding its diagnostic value. We aim to investigate the diagnostic value of D-dimer in comparison to ESR and CRP.

Aims

The aims of this study were to determine the change in the sagittal alignment of the pelvis and the associated impact on acetabular component position at one-year follow-up after total hip arthroplasty (THA).

Anteroposterior (AP) radiographs remain the standard of care for pre- and post-operative imaging during total hip arthroplasty (THA), despite known limitation of plain films, including the inability to adequately account for distortion caused by variations in pelvic orientation. Of specific interest to THA surgeons are distortions associated with pelvic tilt, as unaccounted for tilt can significantly alter radiographic measurements of cup position. Several authors have proposed methods for correcting for pelvic tilt on radiographs but none have proven reliable in a THA population. The purpose of our study was to develop a method for correcting pelvic tilt on AP radiographs in patients undergoing primary or revision THA. CT scans from 20 patients/cadaver specimens (10 male, 10 female) were used to create 3D renderings, from which synthetic radiographs of each pelvis were generated (Figure 1). For each pelvis, 13 synthetic radiographs were generated, showing the pelvis at between −30° and 30° of pelvic tilt, in 5° increments. On each image, 8 unique parameters/distances were measured to determine the most appropriate parameters for calculation of pelvic tilt (Figure 2). The most reliable and accurate of these parameters was determined via regression analysis and used to create gender-specific nomograms from which pelvic tilt measurements could be calculated (Figure 3). The accuracy and reliability of the nomograms and correction method were subsequently validated using both synthetic radiographs (n=50) and stereoradiographic images (n=58). Of 8 parameters measured, the vertical distance between the superior margin of the pubic symphysis and the transischial line (PSTI) was determined to be the most reliable (r=−0.96, ICC=0.94). Mean tilt calculated from synthetic radiographs (0.6°±18.6°) correlated very strongly (r=0.96) with mean known tilt (0.5°±17.9°, p=0.98). Mean pelvic tilt calculated from AP EOS images (3.2°±9.9°) correlated strongly (r=0.77) with mean tilt measured from lateral EOS images (3.8°±8.2°, p=0.74). No gender differences were noted in mean tilt measurements in synthetic images (p=0.98) or EOS images (p=0.45). Our method of measuring PSTI and POD on AP images and applying these measurements to nomograms provides a validated and reliable method for estimating the degree of pelvic tilt on AP radiographs during THA. For any figures or tables, please contact authors directly

Topic. Utilizing radiographic, physical exam and history findings, we developed a novel clinical score to aid in the surgical decision making process for hips with borderline/ transitional dysplastic hips. Background. Treatment of borderline acetabular dysplasia (BD) is controversial with some patients having primarily instability-based symptoms while others have impingement-based symptoms. The purpose of this study was to identify the most important patient characteristics influencing the diagnosis of instability vs. non-instability, develop a clinical score (Borderline Hip Instability Score, BHIS) to collectively characterize these factors and to externally validate BHIS in a multicenter cohort BD patients. Methods. First a retrospective cohort of 186 hips undergoing surgical treatment of BD (LCEA 20°-25°) from a single surgeon experienced in arthroscopic and open techniques was used. Multivariate analysis determined characteristics associated with presence of instability (PAO+/−hip arthroscopy) or absence of instability (isolated hip arthroscopy) based on clinical diagnosis. During the study period, 39.8% of the cohort underwent PAO. Multivariate analysis with bootstrapping was performed and results were transformed into a BHIS nomogram (higher score representing more instability). Then, BHIS was externally validated in 114 BD patients enrolled in a multicenter prospective cohort study across 10 surgeons (with varied treatment approaches from arthroscopy to open procedures). Results. The most parsimonious, best fit model included 4 variables associated with the diagnosis of instability: acetabular inclination (AI), anterior center edge angle (ACEA), maximum alpha angle, and internal rotation in 90 degrees of flexion (IRF). Sex and LCEA were not significant predictors. Mean BHIS in the population was 50.0 (instability 57.7 ±7.9; non-instability 44.8±7.3, p<0.001). BHIS demonstrated excellent predictive (discriminatory) ability with c-statistic=0.89. In Part 2, BHIS maintained excellent c-statistic=0.92 in external validation. Mean BHIS in the external cohort was 53.9 (instability 66.5±11.5; non-instability 43.0±10.8, p<0.001). Discussion. In patients with BD, key factors in diagnosing significant instability treated with PAO were AI, ACEA, maximum alpha-angle, and IRF. The BHIS score allowed for differentiation of patients with and without instability in the development and external validation cohort. For any tables or figures, please contact the authors directly

Aims. The aim of this study was to explore the prognostic factors for postoperative neurological recovery and survival in patients with complete paralysis due to neoplastic epidural spinal cord compression. Patients and Methods. The medical records of 135 patients with complete paralysis due to neoplastic cord compression were retrospectively reviewed. Potential factors including the timing of surgery, muscular tone, and tumour characteristics were analyzed in relation to neurological recovery using logistical regression analysis. The association between neurological recovery and survival was analyzed using a Cox model. A nomogram was formulated to predict recovery. Results. A total of 52 patients (38.5%) achieved American Spinal Injury Association Impairment Scale (AIS) D or E recovery postoperatively. The timing of surgery (p = 0.003) was found to be significant in univariate analysis. In multivariate analysis, surgery within one week was associated with better neurological recovery than surgery within three weeks (p = 0.002), with a trend towards being associated with a better neurological recovery than surgery within one to two weeks (p = 0.597) and two to three weeks (p = 0.055). Age (p = 0.039) and muscle tone (p = 0.018) were also significant predictors. In Cox regression analysis, good neurological recovery (p = 0.004), benign tumours (p = 0.039), and primary tumours (p = 0.005) were associated with longer survival. Calibration graphs showed that the nomogram did well with an ideal model. The bootstrap-corrected C-index for neurological recovery was 0.72. Conclusion. In patients with complete paralysis due to neoplastic spinal cord compression, whose treatment is delayed for more than 48 hours from the onset of symptoms, surgery within one week is still beneficial. Surgery undertaken at this time may still offer neurological recovery and longer survival. The identification of the association between these factors and neurological recovery may help guide treatment for these patients. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B:872–879

Aims

The aims of this study were to determine the change in pelvic sagittal alignment before, during, and after total hip arthroplasty (THA) undertaken with the patient in the lateral decubitus position, and to determine the impact of these changes on acetabular component position.