Total knee arthroplasty (TKA) and total hip arthroplasty
(THA) are recognised and proven interventions for patients with
advanced arthritis. Studies to date have demonstrated a steady increase
in the requirement for primary and revision procedures. Projected
estimates made for the United States show that by 2030 the demand
for primary TKA will grow by 673% and for revision TKA by 601% from
the level in 2005. For THA the projected estimates are 174% and
137% for primary and revision surgery, respectively. The purpose
of this study was to see if those predictions were similar for England
and Wales using data from the National Joint Registry and the Office
of National Statistics. Analysis of data for England and Wales suggest that by 2030,
the volume of primary and revision TKAs will have increased by 117%
and 332%, respectively between 2012 and 2030. The data for the United
States translates to a 306% cumulative rate of increase between
2012 and 2030 for revision surgery, which is similar to our predictions
for England and Wales. The predictions from the United States for primary TKA were similar
to our upper limit projections. For THA, we predicted an increase
of 134% and 31% for primary and revision hip surgery, respectively. Our model has limitations, however, it highlights the economic
burden of arthroplasty in the future in England and Wales as a real
and unaddressed problem. This will have significant implications
for the provision of health care and the management of orthopaedic
services in the future. Cite this article:
