Aims. Current levels of hip fracture morbidity contribute greatly to the overall burden on health and social care services. Given the anticipated ageing of the population over the coming decade, there is potential for this burden to increase further, although the exact scale of impact has not been identified in contemporary literature. We therefore set out to predict the future incidence of hip fracture and help inform appropriate service provision to maintain an adequate standard of care. Methods. Historical data from the Scottish Hip Fracture Audit (2017 to 2021) were used to identify monthly incidence rates. Established time series forecasting techniques (Exponential Smoothing and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) were then used to predict the annual number of hip fractures from 2022 to 2029, including adjustment for predicted changes in national population demographics. Predicted differences in service-level outcomes (length of stay and discharge destination) were analyzed, including the associated financial cost of any changes. Results. Between 2017 and 2021, the number of annual hip fractures increased from 6,675 to 7,797 (15%), with a rise in incidence from 313 to 350 per 100,000 (11%) for the at-risk population. By 2029, a combined average projection forecast the annual number of hip fractures at 10,311, with an incidence rate of 463 per 100,000, representing a 32% increase from 2021. Based upon these projections, assuming discharge rates remain constant, the total overall length of hospital stay following hip fracture in Scotland will increase by 60,699 days per annum, incurring an additional cost of at least £25 million per year. Approximately five more acute hip fracture beds may be required per hospital to accommodate this increased activity. Conclusion. Projection modelling demonstrates that hip fracture burden and incidence will increase substantially by 2029, driven by an ageing population, with substantial implications for health and social care services. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(1):62–68

Aims. This study investigates whether primary knee arthroplasty (KA) restores health-related quality of life (HRQoL) to levels expected in the general population. Methods. This retrospective case-control study compared HRQoL data from two sources: patients undergoing primary KA in a university-teaching hospital (2013 to 2019), and the Health Survey for England (HSE; 2010 to 2012). Patient-level data from the HSE were used to represent the general population. Propensity score matching was used to balance covariates and facilitate group comparisons. A propensity score was estimated using logistic regression based upon the covariates sex, age, and BMI. Two matched cohorts with 3,029 patients each were obtained for the adjusted analyses (median age 70.3 (interquartile range (IQR) 64 to 77); number of female patients 3,233 (53.4%); median BMI 29.7 kg/m. 2. (IQR 26.5 to 33.7)). HRQoL was measured using the three-level version of the EuroQol five-dimension questionnaire (EQ-5D-3L), and summarized using the Index and EuroQol visual analogue scale (EQ-VAS) scores. Results. Patients awaiting KA had significantly lower EQ-5D-3L Index scores than the general population (median 0.620 (IQR 0.16 to 0.69) vs median 0.796 (IQR 0.69 to 1.00); p < 0.001). By one year postoperatively, the median EQ-5D-3L Index score improved significantly in the KA cohort (mean change 0.32 (SD 0.33); p < 0.001), and demonstrated no clinically relevant differences when compared to the general population (median 0.796 (IQR 0.69 to 1.00) vs median 0.796 (IQR 0.69 to 1.00)). Compared to the general population cohort, the postoperative EQ-VAS was significantly higher in the KA cohort (p < 0.001). Subgroup comparisons demonstrated that older age groups had statistically better EQ-VAS scores than matched peers in the general population. Conclusion. Patients awaiting KA for osteoarthritis had significantly poorer HRQoL than the general population. However, within one year of surgery, primary KA restored HRQoL to levels expected for the patient’s age-, BMI-, and sex-matched peers. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(4):365–372

Aims. The purpose of this study was to compare the prevalence of hip displacement and dislocation in a total population of children with cerebral palsy (CP) in Scotland before and after the initiation of a hip surveillance programme. Patients. A total of 2,155 children with CP are registered in the Cerebral Palsy Integrated Pathway Scotland (CPIPS) surveillance programme, which began in 2013. Physical examination and hip radiological data are collected according to nationally agreed protocols. Methods. Age, Gross Motor Function Classification System (GMFCS) level, subtype of CP, migration percentage (MP), and details of hip surgery were analyzed for all children aged between two and 16 years taken from a time of census in March 2019 and compared to the same data from the initial registration of children in the CPIPS. Displacement of the hip was defined as a MP of between 40% and 99%, and dislocation as a MP of 100%. Results. A total of 1,646 children were available for analysis at the time of the census and 1,171 at their first registration in CPIPS. The distribution of age, sex, and GMFCS levels were similar in the two groups. The prevalence of displacement and dislocation of the hip before surveillance began were 10% (117/1,171) and 2.5% (29/1,171) respectively, and at the time of the census were 4.5% (74/1,646) and 1.3% (21/1,646), respectively. Dislocation was only seen in GMFCS levels IV and V and displacement seen in 90.5% (67/74) of these levels and 9.5% (7/74) in levels I to III. In total, 138 children had undergone hip surgery during the study period. The hip redisplaced after the initial surgery in 15 children; seven of these had undergone a second procedure and at the time of the census the hips in all seven had a MP < 40. Conclusion. Hip surveillance appears to be effective and has reduced the prevalence of hip displacement by over half and dislocation almost by half in these children. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(3):383–387

We investigated the development of CT-based bony radiological parameters associated with femoroacetabular impingement (FAI) in a paediatric and adolescent population with no known orthopaedic hip complaints. We retrospectively reformatted and reoriented 225 abdominal CTs into standardised CT pelvic images with neutral pelvic tilt and inclination (244 female and 206 male hips) in patients ranging from two to 19 years of age (mean 10.4 years). The Tönnis angle, acetabular depth ratio, lateral centre–edge angle, acetabular version and α-angle were assessed. Acetabular measurements demonstrated increased acetabular coverage with age and/or progressive ossification of the acetabulum. The α-angle decreased with age and/or progressive cortical bone development and resultant narrowing of the femoral neck. Cam and pincer morphology occurred as early as ten and 12 years of age, respectively, and their prevalence in the adolescent patient population is similar to that reported in the adult literature. Future aetiological studies of FAI will need to focus on the early adolescent population. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2013;95-B:598–604

Aims. The aim of the study was to analyze the results of primary tendon reinsertion in acute and chronic distal triceps tendon ruptures (DTTRs) in the general population. Patients and Methods. A total of 28 patients were operated on for primary DTTR reinsertions, including 21 male patients and seven female patients with a mean age of 45 years (14 to 76). Of these patients, 23 sustained an acute DTTR and five had a chronic injury. One patient had a non-simultaneous bilateral DTTR. Seven patients had DTTR-associated ipsilateral fracture or dislocation. Comorbidities were present in four patients. Surgical treatment included transosseous and suture-anchors reinsertion in 22 and seven DTTRs, respectively. The clinical evaluation was performed using Mayo Elbow Performance Score (MEPS), the modified American Shoulder and Elbow Surgeons Score (m-ASES), the Quick Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand score (QuickDASH), and the Medical Research Council (MRC) Scale. Results. A total of 27 patients (28 DTTRs) were available for review at a mean of 47.5 months (12 to 204). The mean MEPS, QuickDASH, and m-ASES scores were 94 (60 to 100), 10 (0 to 52), and 94 (58 to 100), respectively. Satisfactory results were observed in 26 cases (93%). Muscle strength was 5/5 and 4/5 in 18 and ten DTTRs, respectively. One patient with chronic renal failure experienced a traumatic rerupture of distal triceps. One patient (1 DTTR) experienced mild elbow stiffness. Conclusion. Primary repair of acute and chronic DTTRs in a general population yields satisfactory results in the majority of patients with a low rerupture rate. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2018;100-B:610–16

1. Surveys of a working community, of a group of elderly people, and of an urban population show an incidence of Dupuytren's contracture among men varying from 0·1 per cent in the age group fifteen to twenty-four, to 18·1 per cent in those aged seventy-five and over; and among women from 0·5 per cent in the age group forty-five to fifty-four, to 9 per cent over seventy-five. It is estimated that in the population aged fifteen and over in Lancashire and Cheshire there will be 4·2 per cent of the men and 1·4 per cent of the women with some degree of palmar contracture. 2. There appears to be no relationship between the type of occupation and the incidence or severity of contracture in men, except that among those engaged in light manual work the proportion of mildly affected hands is higher, and of bilateral contracture lower, than among either non-manual or heavy manual workers. 3. Evidence is provided that rheumatoid arthritis, past polyarthritis, osteoarthritis, cervical spondylosis and Paget's disease occur no more often in those with Dupuytren's contracture than in other members of the community. 4. Examination of the patients in an epileptic colony confirms a strong association between Dupuytren's contracture and epilepsy. Knuckle-pads, plantar nodules and periarthritis of the shoulder are all more frequent in epileptic than in non-epileptic patients with Dupuytren's contracture. Epileptics also show a higher proportion with bilateral contractures and a greater tendency to a symmetrical pattern of contracture in the two hands. A strong constitutional factor, probably genetic, thus operates in persons with both diseases. Nevertheless, the frequency of a positive family history of contracture is lower in the epileptic cases, and reasons for this are discussed. 5. From the limited material available in the literature there would appear to be an inverse relationship between the population of certain countries and the prevalence in them of Dupuytren's contracture. The possible significance of this is briefly discussed

This study was designed to provide normal reference values for the centre-edge angle of Wiberg in the Chinese population by measuring 1494 radiographs according to the criteria of Tönnis. The mean angle was 23.1° (4.7° to 46.4°) in childhood (four to nine years), increasing to 28.9° (6° to 48°) in adolescence (10 to 18 years) and reaching 32.8° (13.7° to 58.8°) in adults. The angle was positively correlated with age, increasing by a mean of 0.78° annually before adulthood and by 0.070° annually in adults. A relative upward tendency after middle age might contribute to degenerative changes. No gender difference was discovered. The change in the angle with age was similar to that observed in other ethnic groups, showing moderate differences in the average of individual age groups, but the ethnic differences are not sufficient to explain the variation of incidence of developmental dysplasia of the hip in different races

Aims. To validate the English language Forgotten Joint Score-12 (FJS-12) as a tool to evaluate the outcome of hip and knee arthroplasty in a United Kingdom population. Patients and Methods. All patients undergoing surgery between January and August 2014 were eligible for inclusion. Prospective data were collected from 205 patients undergoing total hip arthroplasty (THA) and 231 patients undergoing total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Outcomes were assessed with the FJS-12 and the Oxford Hip and Knee Scores (OHS, OKS) pre-operatively, then at six and 12 months post-operatively. Internal consistency, convergent validity, effect size, relative validity and ceiling effects were determined. Results. Data for the TKA and THA patients showed high internal consistency for the FJS-12 (Cronbach α = 0.97 in TKAs, 0.98 in THAs). Convergent validity with the Oxford Scores was high (r = 0.85 in TKAs, r = 0.79 for THAs). From six to 12 months, the change was higher for the FJS-12 than for the OHS in THA patients (effect size d = 0.21 versus -0.03). Ceiling effects at one-year follow-up were low for the FJS-12 with just 3.9% (TKA) and 8.8% (THA) of patients achieving the best possible score. Conclusion. The FJS-12 has strong measurement properties in terms of validity, internal consistency and sensitivity to change in TKA and THA patients. Low ceiling effects and good relative validity allow the monitoring of longer term outcomes, particularly in well-performing groups after total joint arthroplasty. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2017;99-B:218–24

The operative treatment of lesions of the anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) in athletes has been widely advocated and performed. We have investigated the outcome of non-operative management in a lower-demand, general population. We reviewed a consecutive group of 228 patients, which excluded professional and high-level athletes, for two to 12 years after an ACL lesion had been diagnosed by arthroscopy. There was a low incidence of secondary ACL and meniscal surgery, 5.4% and 3.5% respectively, and all these procedures were performed during the first three years after the ACL injury. We studied a subgroup of 109 patients with follow-up of at least five years (mean 8.5 years) and evaluated them using the IKDC score. The general outcome was reasonably satisfactory, with 23% in grade A, 50% in grade B, 21% in grade C and only 6.4% in grade D. We found no statistically significant prognostic effect within this group as regards age, activity levels, or the incidence of associated lesions

1. On the basis of radiographic studies the incidence of degenerative change in the intervertebral disc in primitive squatting populations is considerably less than that found in civilised peoples. 2. The suggestion is made that lordosis is implicated in the pathogenesis of degeneration, but further studies are required

Aims

The routine use of dual-mobility (DM) acetabular components in total hip arthroplasty (THA) may not be cost-effective, but an increasing number of patients undergoing THA have a coexisting spinal disorder, which increases the risk of postoperative instability, and these patients may benefit from DM articulations. This study seeks to examine the cost-effectiveness of DM components as an alternative to standard articulations in these patients.

Highly active anti-retroviral therapy has transformed HIV into a chronic disease with a long-term asymptomatic phase. As a result, emphasis is shifting to other effects of the virus, aside from immunosuppression and mortality. We have reviewed the current evidence for an association between HIV infection and poor fracture healing.

The increased prevalence of osteoporosis and fragility fractures in HIV patients is well recognised. The suggestion that this may be purely as a result of highly active anti-retroviral therapy has been largely rejected. Apart from directly impeding cellular function in bone remodelling, HIV infection is known to cause derangement in the levels of those cytokines involved in fracture healing (particularly tumour necrosis factor-α) and appears to impair the blood supply of bone.

Many other factors complicate this issue, including a reduced body mass index, suboptimal nutrition, the effects of anti-retroviral drugs and the avoidance of operative intervention because of high rates of wound infection. However, there are sound molecular and biochemical hypotheses for a direct relationship between HIV infection and impaired fracture healing, and the rewards for further knowledge in this area are extensive in terms of optimised fracture management, reduced patient morbidity and educated resource allocation. Further investigation in this area is overdue.

Acetabular labral tears and associated intra-articular pathology of the hip have been recognised as a source of symptoms. However, it is now appreciated that there is a relatively high prevalence of asymptomatic labral tears. In this study, 70 young asymptomatic adult volunteers with a mean age of 26 years (19 to 41) were recruited and underwent three tesla non-arthrographic MR scans. There were 47 women (67.1%) and 23 men (32.9%).

Labral tears were found in 27 volunteers (38.6%); these were an isolated finding in 16 (22.9%) and were associated with other intra-articular pathology in the remaining 11 (15.7%) volunteers. Furthermore, five (7.1%) had intra-articular pathology without an associated labral tear.

Given the high prevalence of labral pathology in the asymptomatic population, it is important to confirm that a patient's symptoms are due to the demonstrated abnormalities when considering surgery.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2015;97-B:623–7.

Hip fracture is a global public health problem. The National Hip Fracture Database provides a framework for service evaluation in this group of patients in the United Kingdom, but does not collect patient-reported outcome data and is unable to provide meaningful data about the recovery of quality of life.

We report one-year patient-reported outcomes of a prospective cohort of patients treated at a single major trauma centre in the United Kingdom who sustained a hip fracture between January 2012 and March 2014.

There was an initial marked decline in quality of life from baseline measured using the EuroQol 5 Dimensions score (EQ-5D). It was followed by a significant improvement to 120 days for all patients. Although their quality of life improved during the year after the fracture, it was still significantly lower than before injury irrespective of age group or cognitive impairment (mean reduction EQ-5D 0.22; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.17 to 0.26). There was strong evidence that quality of life was lower for patients with cognitive impairment. There was a mean reduction in EQ-5D of 0.28 (95% CI 0.22 to 0.35) in patients <  80 years of age. This difference was consistent (and fixed) throughout follow-up. Quality of life does not improve significantly during recovery from hip fracture in patients over 80 years of age (p = 0.928). Secondary measures of function showed similar trends.

Hip fracture marks a step down in the quality of life of a patient: it accounts for approximately 0.22 disability adjusted life years in the first year after fracture. This is equivalent to serious neurological conditions for which extensive funding for research and treatment is made available.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2015;97-B:372–82.

Prophylaxis against venous thromboembolism after elective total hip replacement is routinely recommended. Our preference has been to use mechanical prophylaxis without anticoagulant drugs. A randomised controlled trial was performed to evaluate whether the incidence of post-operative venous thromboembolism was reduced by using pharmacological anticoagulation with either fondaparinux or enoxaparin in addition to our prophylactic mechanical regimen. A total of 255 Japanese patients who underwent primary unilateral cementless total hip replacement were randomly assigned to one of three postoperative regimens, namely injection of placebo (saline), fondaparinux or enoxaparin. There were 85 patients in each group. All also received the same mechanical prophylaxis during and after the operation, regardless of their assigned group. The primary measurement of efficacy was the presence of a venous thromboembolic event by day 11, defined as deep-vein thrombosis detected by ultrasonography, documented symptomatic deep-vein thrombosis or documented symptomatic pulmonary embolism. The duration of follow-up was 12 weeks.

The rate of venous thromboembolism was 7.2% with the placebo, 7.1% with fondaparinux and 6.0% with enoxaparin (p = 0.95 for the comparison of all three groups). Our study confirmed the effectiveness and safety of mechanical thromboprophylaxis without the use of anticoagulant drugs after total hip replacement in Japanese patients.

The occurrence of osteonecrosis following renal transplantation is well recognised but its pathogenesis remains unknown. We have quantified the number of empty osteocytic lacunae in the subchondral bone of femoral heads from a control group of patients, and compared these with femoral heads from a group of renal transplant recipients without evidence of overt osteonecrosis. There is a significant increase in empty osteocytic lacunae in renal transplant patients. We conclude that loss of osteocytes precedes other manifestations of osteonecrosis.

The lumbar spines of 485 skeletons of adult South African "Whites" and "Blacks" of both sexes were examined to determine the incidence and morphology of defects in the pars interarticularis. The overall incidence was 3.5%, without significant variation between races and sexes. The incidence of lumbar spina bifida in the whole sample was 1.9%, but was 11.8% in those skeletons with spondylolysis. Some instances of unilateral spondylolysis demonstrated obvious callus formation, suggesting a capability for normal repair. It is possible that the defects in bilateral cases represent established non-union of fractures of the pars interarticularis resulting from excessive mobility, and are not due to dysplasia of bone. It is noted, for the first time, that the superior facets of affected vertebrae are abnormally enlarged, and that the inferior facets of the separate neural arch are characteristically elliptical.

Perthes' disease is thought to be rare in black children but no figures of incidence have previously been available. A search was therefore made for cases of the disease occurring in the Eastern Cape during the five-year period 1975 to 1979. Of 55 cases found, 38 were in white children, 11 in children of mixed ancestry ("coloured" children) and six in black children. The annual incidence in white children aged 14 years and under was 10.8 per 100 000, in coloured children 1.7 per 100 000, and in black children 0.45 per 100 000. In all races the incidence in the metropolitan area of Port Elizabeth was roughly twice that in the rural part of the region. The reason for the low incidence in coloured and black children is not known but various factors are suggested.

Aims. Nonagenarians (aged 90 to 99 years) have experienced the fastest percent decile population growth in the USA recently, with a consequent increase in the prevalence of nonagenarians living with joint arthroplasties. As such, the number of revision total hip arthroplasties (THAs) and total knee arthroplasties (TKAs) in nonagenarians is expected to increase. We aimed to determine the mortality rate, implant survivorship, and complications of nonagenarians undergoing aseptic revision THAs and revision TKAs. Methods. Our institutional total joint registry was used to identify 96 nonagenarians who underwent 97 aseptic revisions (78 hips and 19 knees) between 1997 and 2018. The most common indications were aseptic loosening and periprosthetic fracture for both revision THAs and revision TKAs. Mean age at revision was 92 years (90 to 98), mean BMI was 27 kg/m. 2. (16 to 47), and 67% (n = 65) were female. Mean time between primary and revision was 18 years (SD 9). Kaplan-Meier survival was used for patient mortality, and compared to age- and sex-matched control populations. Reoperation risk was assessed using cumulative incidence with death as a competing risk. Mean follow-up was five years. Results. Mortality rates were 9%, 18%, 26%, and 62% at 90 days, one year, two years, and five years, respectively, but similar to control populations. There were 43 surgical complications and five reoperations, resulting in a cumulative incidence of reoperation of 4% at five years. Medical complications were common, with a cumulative incidence of 65% at 90 days. Revisions for periprosthetic fractures were associated with higher mortality and higher 90-day risk of medical complications compared to revisions for aseptic loosening. Conclusion. Contemporary revision THAs and TKAs appeared to be relatively safe in selected nonagenarians managed with multidisciplinary teams. Cause of revision affected morbidity and mortality risks. While early medical and surgical complications were frequent, they seldom resulted in reoperation. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(6):649–656