Aims. Use of the direct anterior approach (DAA) for total hip arthroplasty (THA) has increased in recent years due to proposed benefits, including a lower risk of dislocation and improved early functional recovery. This study investigates the dislocation rate in a non-selective, consecutive cohort undergoing THA via the DAA without any exclusion or bias in patient selection based on habitus, deformity, age, sex, or fixation method. Methods. We retrospectively reviewed all patients undergoing THA via the DAA between 2011 and 2017 at our institution. Primary outcome was dislocation at minimum two-year follow-up. Patients were stratified by demographic details and risk factors for dislocation, and an in-depth analysis of dislocations was performed. Results. A total of 2,831 hips in 2,205 patients were included. Mean age was 64.9 years (24 to 96), mean BMI was 29.2 kg/m. 2. (15.1 to 53.8), and 1,595 patients (56.3%) were female. There were 11 dislocations within one year (0.38%) and 13 total dislocations at terminal follow-up (0.46%). Five dislocations required revision. The dislocation rate for surgeons who had completed their learning curve was 0.15% compared to 1.14% in those who had not. The cumulative periprosthetic infection and fracture rates were 0.53% and 0.67%, respectively. Conclusion. In a non-selective, consecutive cohort of patients undergoing THA via the DAA, the risk of dislocation is low, even among patients with risk factors for instability. Our data further suggest that the DAA can be safely used in all hip arthroplasty patients without an increased risk of wound complications, fracture, infection, or revision. The inclusion of seven surgeons increases the generalizability of these results. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(7 Supple B):38–45

Aims. The aim of this study was to determine the long-term risk of undergoing knee arthroplasty in a cohort of patients with meniscal tears who had undergone arthroscopic partial meniscectomy (APM). Patients and Methods. A retrospective national cohort of patients with a history of isolated APM was identified over a 20-year period. Patients with prior surgery to the same knee were excluded. The primary outcome was knee arthroplasty. Hazard ratios (HRs) were adjusted by patient age, sex, year of APM, Charlson comorbidity index, regional deprivation, rurality, and ethnicity. Risk of arthroplasty in the index knee was compared with the patient’s contralateral knee (with vs without a history of APM). A total of 834 393 patients were included (mean age 50 years; 37% female). Results. Of those with at least 15 years of follow-up, 13.49% (16 256/120 493; 95% confidence interval (CI) 13.30 to 13.69) underwent subsequent arthroplasty within this time. In women, 22.07% (95% CI 21.64 to 22.51) underwent arthroplasty within 15 years compared with 9.91% of men (95% CI 9.71 to 10.12), corresponding to a risk ratio (RR) of 2.23 (95% CI 2.16 to 2.29). Relative to the general population, patients with a history of APM were over ten times more likely (RR 10.27; 95% CI 10.07 to 10.47) to undergo arthroplasty rising to almost 40 times more likely (RR 39.62; 95% CI 27.68 to 56.70) at a younger age (30 to 39 years). In patients with a history of APM in only one knee, the risk of arthroplasty in that knee was greatly elevated in comparison with the contralateral knee (no APM; HR 2.99; 95% CI 2.95 to 3.02). Conclusion. Patients developing a meniscal tear undergoing APM are at greater risk of knee arthroplasty than the general population. This risk is three-times greater in the patient’s affected knee than in the contralateral knee. Women in the cohort were at double the risk of progressing to knee arthroplasty compared with men. These important new reference data will inform shared decision making and enhance approaches to treatment, prevention, and clinical surveillance. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B:1071–1080

Aims. Few risk factors for rotator cuff disease (RCD) and corresponding treatment have been firmly established. The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between numerous risk factors and the incidence of surgery for RCD in a large cohort. Methods. A population-based cohort of people aged between 40 and 69 years in the UK (the UK Biobank) was studied. People who underwent surgery for RCD were identified through a link with NHS inpatient records covering a mean of eight years after enrolment. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression was used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) as estimates of associations with surgery for RCD accounting for confounders. The risk factors which were considered included age, sex, race, education, Townsend deprivation index, body mass index (BMI), occupational demands, and exposure to smoking. Results. Of the 421,894 people who were included, 47% were male. The mean age at the time of enrolment was 56 years (40 to 69). A total of 2,156 people were identified who underwent surgery for RCD. Each decade increase in age was associated with a 55% increase in the incidence of RCD surgery (95% confidence interval (CI) 46% to 64%). Male sex, non-white race, lower deprivation score, and higher BMI were significantly associated with a higher risk of surgery for RCD (all p < 0.050). Greater occupational physical demands were significantly associated with higher rates of RCD surgery (HR = 2.1, 1.8, and 1.4 for ‘always’, ‘usually’, and ‘sometimes’ doing heavy manual labour vs ‘never’, all p < 0.001). Former smokers had significantly higher rates of RCD surgery than those who had never smoked (HR 1.23 (95% CI 1.12 to 1.35), p < 0.001), while current smokers had similar rates to those who had never smoked (HR 0.94 (95% CI 0.80 to 1.11)). Among those who had never smoked, the risk of surgery was higher among those with more than one household member who smoked (HR 1.78 (95% CI 1.08 to 2.92)). The risk of RCD surgery was not significantly related to other measurements of secondhand smoking. Conclusion. Many factors were independently associated with surgery for RCD, including older age, male sex, higher BMI, lower deprivation score, and higher occupational physical demands. Several of the risk factors which were identified are modifiable, suggesting that the healthcare burden of RCD might be reduced through the pursuit of public health goals, such as reducing obesity and modifying occupational demands. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(3):352–359

Aims. The aim of this study was to evaluate the epidemiology and treatment of Perthes’ disease of the hip. Methods. This was an anonymized comprehensive cohort study of Perthes’ disease, with a nested consented cohort. A total of 143 of 144 hospitals treating children’s hip disease in the UK participated over an 18-month period. Cases were cross-checked using a secondary independent reporting network of trainee surgeons to minimize those missing. Clinician-reported outcomes were collected until two years. Patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) were collected for a subset of participants. Results. Overall, 371 children (396 hips) were newly affected by Perthes’ disease arising from 63 hospitals, with a median of two patients (interquartile range 1.0 to 5.5) per hospital. The annual incidence was 2.48 patients (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.20 to 2.76) per 100,000 zero- to 14-year-olds. Of these, 117 hips (36.4%) were treated surgically. There was considerable variation in the treatment strategy, and an optimized decision tree identified joint stiffness and age above eight years as the key determinants for containment surgery. A total of 348 hips (88.5%) had outcomes to two years, of which 227 were in the late reossification stage for which a hip shape outcome (Stulberg grade) was assigned. The independent predictors of a poorer radiological outcome were female sex (odds ratio (OR) 2.27 (95% CI 1.19 to 4.35)), age above six years (OR 2.62 (95% CI (1.30 to 5.28)), and over 50% radiological collapse at inclusion (OR 2.19 (95% CI 0.99 to 4.83)). Surgery had no effect on radiological outcomes (OR 1.03 (95% CI 0.55 to 1.96)). PROMs indicated the marked effect of the disease on the child, which persisted at two years. Conclusion. Despite the frequency of containment surgery, we found no evidence of improved outcomes. There appears to be a sufficient case volume and community equipoise among surgeons to embark on a randomized clinical trial to definitively investigate the effectiveness of containment surgery. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(4):510–518

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The aim of this study was to describe the demographic details of patients who sustain a femoral periprosthetic fracture (PPF), the epidemiology of PPFs, PPF characteristics, and the predictors of PPF types in the UK population.

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The aim of this study was to describe the management and associated outcomes of patients sustaining a femoral hip periprosthetic fracture (PPF) in the UK population.

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The aim of this study was to determine whether early surgical treatment results in better neurological recovery 12 months after injury than late surgical treatment in patients with acute traumatic spinal cord injury (tSCI).

In Norway total joint replacement after hip dysplasia is reported more commonly than in neighbouring countries, implying a higher prevalence of the condition. We report on the prevalence of radiological features associated with hip dysplasia in a population of 2081 19-year-old Norwegians. The radiological measurements used to define hip dysplasia were Wiberg’s centre-edge (CE) angle at thresholds of < 20° and < 25°, femoral head extrusion index <  75%, Sharp’s angle > 45°, an acetabular depth to width ratio < 250 and the sourcil shape assessed subjectively. The whole cohort underwent clinical examination of their range of hip movement, body mass index (BMI), and Beighton hypermobility score, and were asked to complete the EuroQol (EQ-5D) and Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC). The prevalence of hip dysplasia in the cohort varied from 1.7% to 20% depending on the radiological marker used. A Wiberg’s CE angle <  20° was seen in 3.3% of the cohort: 4.3% in women and 2.4% in men. We found no association between subjects with multiple radiological signs indicative of dysplasia and BMI, Beighton score, EQ-5D or WOMAC. Although there appears to be a high prevalence of hip dysplasia among 19-year-old Norwegians, this is dependent on the radiological parameters applied. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2013;95-B:279–85

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We have previously demonstrated raised cobalt and chromium levels in patients with larger diameter femoral heads, following metal-on-polyethylene uncemented total hip arthroplasty. Further data have been collected, to see whether these associations have altered with time and to determine the long-term implications for these patients and our practice.

The reported prevalence of an asymptomatic slip of the contralateral hip in patients operated on for unilateral slipped capital femoral epiphysis (SCFE) is as high as 40%. Based on a population-based cohort of 2072 healthy adolescents (58% women) we report on radiological and clinical findings suggestive of a possible previous SCFE. Common threshold values for Southwick’s lateral head–shaft angle (≥ 13°) and Murray’s tilt index (≥ 1.35) were used. New reference intervals for these measurements at skeletal maturity are also presented. At follow-up the mean age of the patients was 18.6 years (17.2 to 20.1). All answered two questionnaires, had a clinical examination and two hip radiographs. There was an association between a high head–shaft angle and clinical findings associated with SCFE, such as reduced internal rotation and increased external rotation. Also, 6.6% of the cohort had Southwick’s lateral head–shaft angle ≥ 13°, suggestive of a possible slip. Murray’s tilt index ≥ 1.35 was demonstrated in 13.1% of the cohort, predominantly in men, in whom this finding was associated with other radiological findings such as pistol-grip deformity or focal prominence of the femoral neck, but no clinical findings suggestive of SCFE. This study indicates that 6.6% of young adults have radiological findings consistent with a prior SCFE, which seems to be more common than previously reported. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2013;95-B:452–8

The extent and depth of routine health care data are growing at an ever-increasing rate, forming huge repositories of information. These repositories can answer a vast array of questions. However, an understanding of the purpose of the dataset used and the quality of the data collected are paramount to determine the reliability of the result obtained.

This Editorial describes the importance of adherence to sound methodological principles in the reporting and publication of research using ‘big’ data, with a suggested reporting framework for future Bone & Joint Journal submissions.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2014;96-B:1575–7.

Aims. Surgical site infection (SSI) after soft-tissue sarcoma (STS) resection is a serious complication. The purpose of this retrospective study was to investigate the risk factors for SSI after STS resection, and to develop a nomogram that allows patient-specific risk assessment. Methods. A total of 547 patients with STS who underwent tumour resection between 2005 and 2021 were divided into a development cohort and a validation cohort. In the development cohort of 402 patients, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression model was used to screen possible risk factors of SSI. To select risk factors and construct the prediction nomogram, multivariate logistic regression was used. The predictive power of the nomogram was evaluated by receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis in the validation cohort of 145 patients. Results. LASSO regression analysis selected possible risk factors for SSI, including age, diabetes, operating time, skin graft or flap, resected tumour size, smoking, and radiation therapy. Multivariate analysis revealed that age, diabetes, smoking during the previous year, operating time, and radiation therapy were independent risk factors for SSI. A nomogram was developed based on the results of multivariate logistic regression analysis. In the development cohort, the incidence of SSI was 4.5% in the low-risk group (risk score < 6.89) and 26.6% in the high-risk group (risk score ≥ 6.89; p < 0.001). In the validation cohort, the incidence of SSI was 2.0% in the low-risk group and 15.9% in the high-risk group (p = 0.004). Conclusion. Our nomogram will enable surgeons to assess the risk of SSI in patients with STS. In patients with high risk of SSI, frequent monitoring and aggressive interventions should be considered to prevent this. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(5):492–500

Aims. Distraction osteogenesis with intramedullary lengthening devices has undergone rapid development in the past decade with implant enhancement. In this first single-centre matched-pair analysis we focus on the comparison of treatment with the PRECICE and STRYDE intramedullary lengthening devices and aim to clarify any clinical and radiological differences. Methods. A single-centre 2:1 matched-pair retrospective analysis of 42 patients treated with the STRYDE and 82 patients treated with the PRECICE nail between May 2013 and November 2020 was conducted. Clinical and lengthening parameters were compared while focusing radiological assessment on osseous alterations related to the nail’s telescopic junction and locking bolts at four different stages. Results. Osteolysis next to the telescopic junction was observed in 31/48 segments (65%) lengthened with the STRYDE nail before implant removal compared to 1/91 segment (1%) in the PRECICE cohort. In the STRYDE cohort, osteolysis initially increased, but decreased or resolved in almost all lengthened segments (86%) after implant removal. Implant failure was observed in 9/48 STRYDE (19%) and in 8/92 PRECICE nails (9%). Breakage of the distal locking bolts was found in 5/48 STRYDE nails (10%) compared to none in the PRECICE cohort. Treatment-associated pain was generally recorded as mild and found in 30/48 patients (63%) and 39/92 (42%) in the STRYDE and PRECICE cohorts, respectively. Temporary range of motion (ROM) limitations under distraction were registered in 17/48 (35%) segments treated with the STRYDE and 35/92 segments (38%) treated with the PRECICE nail. Conclusion. Osteolysis and periosteal reaction, implant breakage, and pain during lengthening and consolidation is more likely in patients treated with the STRYDE nail compared to the PRECICE nail. Temporary ROM limitations during lengthening occurred independent of the applied device. Implant-related osseous alterations seem to remodel after implant removal. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(1):88–96

Aims. The number of patients undergoing surgery for degenerative cervical radiculopathy has increased. In many countries, public hospitals have limited capacity. This has resulted in long waiting times for elective treatment and a need for supplementary private healthcare. It is uncertain whether the management of patients and the outcome of treatment are equivalent in public and private hospitals. The aim of this study was to compare the management and patient-reported outcomes among patients who underwent surgery for degenerative cervical radiculopathy in public and private hospitals in Norway, and to assess whether the effectiveness of the treatment was equivalent. Methods. This was a comparative study using prospectively collected data from the Norwegian Registry for Spine Surgery. A total of 4,750 consecutive patients who underwent surgery for degenerative cervical radiculopathy and were followed for 12 months were included. Case-mix adjustment between those managed in public and private hospitals was performed using propensity score matching. The primary outcome measure was the change in the Neck Disability Index (NDI) between baseline and 12 months postoperatively. A mean difference in improvement of the NDI score between public and private hospitals of ≤ 15 points was considered equivalent. Secondary outcome measures were a numerical rating scale for neck and arm pain and the EuroQol five-dimension three-level health questionnaire. The duration of surgery, length of hospital stay, and complications were also recorded. Results. The mean improvement from baseline to 12 months postoperatively of patients who underwent surgery in public and private hospitals was equivalent, both in the unmatched cohort (mean NDI difference between groups 3.9 points (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.2 to 5.6); p < 0.001) and in the matched cohort (4.0 points (95% CI 2.3 to 5.7); p < 0.001). Secondary outcomes showed similar results. The duration of surgery and length of hospital stay were significantly longer in public hospitals. Those treated in private hospitals reported significantly fewer complications in the unmatched cohort, but not in the matched cohort. Conclusion. The clinical effectiveness of surgery for degenerative cervical radiculopathy performed in public and private hospitals was equivalent 12 months after surgery. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(1):64–71

Aims. This study investigates whether primary knee arthroplasty (KA) restores health-related quality of life (HRQoL) to levels expected in the general population. Methods. This retrospective case-control study compared HRQoL data from two sources: patients undergoing primary KA in a university-teaching hospital (2013 to 2019), and the Health Survey for England (HSE; 2010 to 2012). Patient-level data from the HSE were used to represent the general population. Propensity score matching was used to balance covariates and facilitate group comparisons. A propensity score was estimated using logistic regression based upon the covariates sex, age, and BMI. Two matched cohorts with 3,029 patients each were obtained for the adjusted analyses (median age 70.3 (interquartile range (IQR) 64 to 77); number of female patients 3,233 (53.4%); median BMI 29.7 kg/m. 2. (IQR 26.5 to 33.7)). HRQoL was measured using the three-level version of the EuroQol five-dimension questionnaire (EQ-5D-3L), and summarized using the Index and EuroQol visual analogue scale (EQ-VAS) scores. Results. Patients awaiting KA had significantly lower EQ-5D-3L Index scores than the general population (median 0.620 (IQR 0.16 to 0.69) vs median 0.796 (IQR 0.69 to 1.00); p < 0.001). By one year postoperatively, the median EQ-5D-3L Index score improved significantly in the KA cohort (mean change 0.32 (SD 0.33); p < 0.001), and demonstrated no clinically relevant differences when compared to the general population (median 0.796 (IQR 0.69 to 1.00) vs median 0.796 (IQR 0.69 to 1.00)). Compared to the general population cohort, the postoperative EQ-VAS was significantly higher in the KA cohort (p < 0.001). Subgroup comparisons demonstrated that older age groups had statistically better EQ-VAS scores than matched peers in the general population. Conclusion. Patients awaiting KA for osteoarthritis had significantly poorer HRQoL than the general population. However, within one year of surgery, primary KA restored HRQoL to levels expected for the patient’s age-, BMI-, and sex-matched peers. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(4):365–372

Aims. The number of revision arthroplasties being performed in the elderly is expected to rise, including revision for infection. The primary aim of this study was to measure the treatment success rate for octogenarians undergoing revision total hip arthroplasty (THA) for periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) compared to a younger cohort. Secondary outcomes were complications and mortality. Methods. Patients undergoing one- or two-stage revision of a primary THA for PJI between January 2008 and January 2021 were identified. Age, sex, BMI, American Society of Anesthesiologists grade, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), McPherson systemic host grade, and causative organism were collated for all patients. PJI was classified as ‘confirmed’, ‘likely’, or ‘unlikely’ according to the 2021 European Bone and Joint Infection Society criteria. Primary outcomes were complications, reoperation, re-revision, and successful treatment of PJI. A total of 37 patients aged 80 years or older and 120 patients aged under 80 years were identified. The octogenarian group had a significantly lower BMI and significantly higher CCI and McPherson systemic host grades compared to the younger cohort. Results. The majority of patients were planned to undergo two-stage revision, although a significantly higher proportion of the octogenarians did not proceed with the second stage (38.7% (n = 12) vs 14.8% (n = 16); p = 0.003). Although there was some evidence of a lower complication rate in the younger cohort, this did not reach statistical significance (p = 0.065). No significant difference in reoperation (21.6% (n = 8) vs 25.0% (n = 30); p = 0.675) or re-revision rate (8.1% (n = 3) vs 16.7% (n = 20); p = 0.288) was identified between the groups. There was no difference in treatment success between groups (octogenarian 89.2% (n = 33) vs control 82.5% (n = 99); p = 0.444). Conclusion. When compared to a younger cohort, octogenarians did not show a significant difference in complication, re-revision, or treatment success rates. However, given they are less likely to be eligible to proceed with second stage revision, consideration should be given to either single-stage revision or use of an articulated spacer to maximize functional outcomes. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(8):802–807

Aims. Frailty greatly increases the risk of adverse outcome of trauma in older people. Frailty detection tools appear to be unsuitable for use in traumatically injured older patients. We therefore aimed to develop a method for detecting frailty in older people sustaining trauma using routinely collected clinical data. Methods. We analyzed prospectively collected registry data from 2,108 patients aged ≥ 65 years who were admitted to a single major trauma centre over five years (1 October 2015 to 31 July 2020). We divided the sample equally into two, creating derivation and validation samples. In the derivation sample, we performed univariate analyses followed by multivariate regression, starting with 27 clinical variables in the registry to predict Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS; range 1 to 9) scores. Bland-Altman analyses were performed in the validation cohort to evaluate any biases between the Nottingham Trauma Frailty Index (NTFI) and the CFS. Results. In the derivation cohort, five of the 27 variables were strongly predictive of the CFS (regression coefficient B = 6.383 (95% confidence interval 5.03 to 7.74), p < 0.001): age, Abbreviated Mental Test score, admission haemoglobin concentration (g/l), pre-admission mobility (needs assistance or not), and mechanism of injury (falls from standing height). In the validation cohort, there was strong agreement between the NTFI and the CFS (mean difference 0.02) with no apparent systematic bias. Conclusion. We have developed a clinically applicable tool using easily and routinely measured physiological and functional parameters, which clinicians and researchers can use to guide patient care and to stratify the analysis of quality improvement and research projects. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(4):412–418

Aims. Corticosteroid injections are often used to manage glenohumeral arthritis in patients who may be candidates for future total shoulder arthroplasty (TSA) or reverse shoulder arthroplasty (rTSA). In the conservative management of these patients, corticosteroid injections are often provided for symptomatic relief. The purpose of this study was to determine if the timing of corticosteroid injections prior to TSA or rTSA is associated with changes in rates of revision and periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) following these procedures. Methods. Data were collected from a national insurance database from January 2006 to December 2017. Patients who underwent shoulder corticosteroid injection within one year prior to ipsilateral TSA or rTSA were identified and stratified into the following cohorts: < three months, three to six months, six to nine months, and nine to 12 months from time of corticosteroid injection to TSA or rTSA. A control cohort with no corticosteroid injection within one year prior to TSA or rTSA was used for comparison. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to determine the association between specific time intervals and outcomes. Results. In total, 4,252 patients were included in this study. Among those, 1,632 patients (38.4%) received corticosteroid injection(s) within one year prior to TSA or rTSA and 2,620 patients (61.6%) did not. On multivariate analysis, patients who received corticosteroid injection < three months prior to TSA or rTSA were at significantly increased risk for revision (odds ratio (OR) 2.61 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.77 to 3.28); p < 0.001) when compared with the control cohort. However, there was no significant increase in revision risk for all other timing interval cohorts. Notably, Charlson Comorbidity Index ≥ 3 was a significant independent risk factor for all-cause revision (OR 4.00 (95% CI 1.40 to 8.92); p = 0.036). Conclusion. There is a time-dependent relationship between the preoperative timing of corticosteroid injection and the incidence of all-cause revision surgery following TSA or rTSA. This analysis suggests that an interval of at least three months should be maintained between corticosteroid injection and TSA or rTSA to minimize risks of subsequent revision surgery. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(5):620–626

Aims. Extensive literature exists relating to the management of shoulder instability, with a more recent focus on glenoid and humeral bone loss. However, the optimal timing for surgery following a dislocation remains unclear. There is concern that recurrent dislocations may worsen subsequent surgical outcomes, with some advocating stabilization after the first dislocation. The aim of this study was to determine if the recurrence of instability following arthroscopic stabilization in patients without significant glenoid bone loss was influenced by the number of dislocations prior to surgery. Methods. A systematic review and meta-analysis was performed using the PubMed, EMBASE, Orthosearch, and Cochrane databases with the following search terms: ((shoulder or glenohumeral) and (dislocation or subluxation) and arthroscopic and (Bankart or stabilisation or stabilization) and (redislocation or re-dislocation or recurrence or instability)). Methodology followed the PRISMA guidelines. Data and outcomes were synthesized by two independent reviewers, and papers were assessed for bias and quality. Results. Overall, 35 studies including 7,995 shoulders were eligible for analysis, with a mean follow-up of 32.7 months (12 to 159.5). The rate of post-stabilization instability was 9.8% in first-time dislocators, 9.1% in recurrent dislocators, and 8.5% in a mixed cohort. A descriptive analysis investigated the influence of recurrent instability or age in the risk of instability post-stabilization, with an association seen with increasing age and a reduced risk of recurrence post-stabilization. Conclusion. Using modern arthroscopic techniques, patients sustaining an anterior shoulder dislocation without glenoid bone loss can expect a low risk of recurrence postoperatively, and no significant difference was found between first-time and recurrent dislocators. Furthermore, high-risk cohorts can expect a low, albeit slightly higher, rate of redislocation. With the findings of this study, patients and clinicians can be more informed as to the likely outcomes of arthroscopic stabilization within this patient subset. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(10):1141–1149

Aims. The risk factors for recurrent instability (RI) following a primary traumatic anterior shoulder dislocation (PTASD) remain unclear. In this study, we aimed to determine the rate of RI in a large cohort of patients managed nonoperatively after PTASD and to develop a clinical prediction model. Methods. A total of 1,293 patients with PTASD managed nonoperatively were identified from a trauma database (mean age 23.3 years (15 to 35); 14.3% female). We assessed the prevalence of RI, and used multivariate regression modelling to evaluate which demographic- and injury-related factors were independently predictive for its occurrence. Results. The overall rate of RI at a mean follow-up of 34.4 months (SD 47.0) was 62.8% (n = 812), with 81.0% (n = 658) experiencing their first recurrence within two years of PTASD. The median time for recurrence was 9.8 months (IQR 3.9 to 19.4). Independent predictors increasing risk of RI included male sex (p < 0.001), younger age at PTASD (p < 0.001), participation in contact sport (p < 0.001), and the presence of a bony Bankart (BB) lesion (p = 0.028). Greater tuberosity fracture (GTF) was protective (p < 0.001). However, the discriminative ability of the resulting predictive model for two-year risk of RI was poor (area under the curve (AUC) 0.672). A subset analysis excluding identifiable radiological predictors of BB and GTF worsened the predictive ability (AUC 0.646). Conclusion. This study clarifies the prevalence and risk factors for RI following PTASD in a large, unselected patient cohort. Although these data permitted the development of a predictive tool for RI, its discriminative ability was poor. Predicting RI remains challenging, and as-yet-undetermined risk factors may be important in determining the risk. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(10):1111–1117