Aims. The aim of this study was to determine satisfaction rates after hip and knee arthroplasty in patients who did not respond to postoperative patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs), characteristics of non-responders, and contact preferences to maximize response rates. Methods. A prospective cohort study of patients planned to undergo hip arthroplasty (n = 713) and knee arthroplasty (n = 737) at a UK university teaching hospital who had completed preoperative PROMs questionnaires, including the EuroQol five-dimension health-related quality of life score, and Oxford Hip Score (OHS) and Oxford Knee Score (OKS). Follow-up questionnaires were sent by post at one year, including satisfaction scoring. Attempts were made to contact patients who did not initially respond. Univariate, logistic regression, and receiver operator curve analysis was performed. Results. At one year, 667 hip patients (93.5%) and 685 knee patients (92.9%) had undergone surgery and were alive. No response was received from 151/667 hip patients (22.6%), 83 (55.0%) of whom were ultimately contacted); or from 108/685 knee patients (15.8%), 91 (84.3%) of whom were ultimately contacted. There was no difference in satisfaction after arthroplasty between initial non-responders and responders for hips (74/81 satisfied vs 476/516 satisfied; p = 0.847) or knees (81/93 satisfied vs 470/561 satisfied; p = 0.480). Initial non-response and persistent non-response was associated with younger age, higher BMIs, and worse preoperative PROMs for both hip and knee patients (p < 0.050). Being in employment was associated with persistent non-response for hip patients (p = 0.047). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that younger age (p < 0.038), higher BMI (p = 0.018), and poorer preoperative OHS (p = 0.031) were independently associated with persistent non-response to hip PROMs. No independent associations were identified for knees. Using a threshold of > 66.4 years predicted a preference for contact by post (area under the curve 0.723 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.647 to 0.799; p < 0.001, though this CI crosses the 0.7 limit considered reliable). Conclusion. The majority of initial non-responders were ultimately contactable with effort. Satisfaction rates were not inferior in patients who did not initially respond to PROMs. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(4):275–283

Aims. To map the Oxford Knee Score (OKS) and High Activity Arthroplasty Score (HAAS) items to a common scale, and to investigate the psychometric properties of this new scale for the measurement of knee health. Methods. Patient-reported outcome measure (PROM) data measuring knee health were obtained from the NHS PROMs dataset and Total or Partial Knee Arthroplasty Trial (TOPKAT). Assumptions for common scale modelling were tested. A graded response model (fitted to OKS item responses in the NHS PROMs dataset) was used as an anchor to calibrate paired HAAS items from the TOPKAT dataset. Information curves for the combined OKS-HAAS model were plotted. Bland-Altman analysis was used to compare common scale scores derived from OKS and HAAS items. A conversion table was developed to map between HAAS, OKS, and the common scale. Results. We included 3,329 response sets from 528 patients undergoing knee arthroplasty. These generally met the assumptions of unidimensionality, monotonicity, local independence, and measurement invariance. The HAAS items provided more information than OKS items at high levels of knee health. Combining both instruments resulted in higher test-level information than either instrument alone. The mean error between common scale scores derived from the OKS and HAAS was 0.29 logits. Conclusion. The common scale allowed more precise measurement of knee health than use of either the OKS or HAAS individually. These techniques for mapping PROM instruments may be useful for the standardization of outcome reporting, and pooling results across studies that use either PROM in individual-patient meta-analysis. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2023;12(10):624–635

Aims. Hereditary haemochromatosis is a genetic disorder that is caused by several known mutations in the human homeostatic iron regulator protein (HFE) gene. Abnormal accumulation of iron causes a joint disease that resembles osteoarthritis (OA), but appears at a relatively younger age and is accompanied by cirrhosis, diabetes, and injury to other organs. Increased serum transferrin saturation and ferritin levels are known markers of haemochromatosis with high positive predictive values. Methods. We have retrospectively analyzed the iron studies of a cohort of 2,035 patients undergoing knee joint arthroplasty due to OA. Results. No patients had HFE gene C282Y, S65C, or H63D mutations testing. In total, 18 patients (2.96%) of the male cohort and 51 (3.58%) of the female cohort had pathologically increased ferritin levels that may be indicative of haemochromatosis. Seven patients (0.34%) had serum transferrin saturation above 45%. Conclusion. The awareness for the diagnosis of this disorder in Orthopaedics is low and needs improvement. Osteoarthritic patients undergoing knee arthroplasty should be routinely screened for haemochromatosis by iron studies and referred to genetic testing when needed. Level of evidence: Level III - Retrospective cohort study. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(12):1062–1066

Aims. While internet search engines have been the primary information source for patients’ questions, artificial intelligence large language models like ChatGPT are trending towards becoming the new primary source. The purpose of this study was to determine if ChatGPT can answer patient questions about total hip (THA) and knee arthroplasty (TKA) with consistent accuracy, comprehensiveness, and easy readability. Methods. We posed the 20 most Google-searched questions about THA and TKA, plus ten additional postoperative questions, to ChatGPT. Each question was asked twice to evaluate for consistency in quality. Following each response, we responded with, “Please explain so it is easier to understand,” to evaluate ChatGPT’s ability to reduce response reading grade level, measured as Flesch-Kincaid Grade Level (FKGL). Five resident physicians rated the 120 responses on 1 to 5 accuracy and comprehensiveness scales. Additionally, they answered a “yes” or “no” question regarding acceptability. Mean scores were calculated for each question, and responses were deemed acceptable if ≥ four raters answered “yes.”. Results. The mean accuracy and comprehensiveness scores were 4.26 (95% confidence interval (CI) 4.19 to 4.33) and 3.79 (95% CI 3.69 to 3.89), respectively. Out of all the responses, 59.2% (71/120; 95% CI 50.0% to 67.7%) were acceptable. ChatGPT was consistent when asked the same question twice, giving no significant difference in accuracy (t = 0.821; p = 0.415), comprehensiveness (t = 1.387; p = 0.171), acceptability (χ. 2. = 1.832; p = 0.176), and FKGL (t = 0.264; p = 0.793). There was a significantly lower FKGL (t = 2.204; p = 0.029) for easier responses (11.14; 95% CI 10.57 to 11.71) than original responses (12.15; 95% CI 11.45 to 12.85). Conclusion. ChatGPT answered THA and TKA patient questions with accuracy comparable to previous reports of websites, with adequate comprehensiveness, but with limited acceptability as the sole information source. ChatGPT has potential for answering patient questions about THA and TKA, but needs improvement. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(2):139–146

Aims. Achievement of accurate microbiological diagnosis prior to revision is key to reducing the high rates of persistent infection after revision knee surgery. The effect of change in the microorganism between the first- and second-stage revision of total knee arthroplasty for periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) on the success of management is not clear. Methods. A two-centre retrospective cohort study was conducted to review the outcome of patients who have undergone two-stage revision for treatment of knee arthroplasty PJI, focusing specifically on isolated micro-organisms at both the first- and second-stage procedure. Patient demographics, medical, and orthopaedic history data, including postoperative outcomes and subsequent treatment, were obtained from the electronic records and medical notes. Results. The study cohort consisted of 84 patients, of whom 59.5% (n = 50) had successful eradication of their infection at a mean follow-up of 4.7 years. For the 34 patients who had recurrence of infection, 58.8% (n = 20) had a change in isolated organism, compared to 18% (n = 9) in the infection eradication group (p < 0.001). When adjusting for confound, there was no association when the growth on the second stage was the same as the first (odd ratio (OR) 2.50, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.49 to 12.50; p = 0.269); however, when a different organism was identified at the second stage, this was independently associated with failure of treatment (OR 8.40, 95% CI 2.91 to 24.39; p < 0.001). There were no other significant differences between the two cohorts with regard to patient demographics or type of organisms isolated. Conclusion. Change in the identified microorganism between first- and second-stage revision for PJI was associated with failure of management. Identification of this change in the microorganism prior to commencement of the second stage may help target antibiotic management and could improve the success of surgery in these patients. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(9):720–727

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The main objective of this study is to analyze the penetration of bone cement in four different full cementation techniques of the tibial tray.

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Stiffness is a common complication after total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Pathogenesis is not understood, treatment options are limited, and diagnosis is challenging. The aim of this study was to investigate if MRI can be used to visualize intra-articular scarring in patients with stiff, painful knee arthroplasties.

Aims. Focal knee arthroplasty is an attractive alternative to knee arthroplasty for young patients because it allows preservation of a large amount of bone for potential revisions. However, the mechanical behaviour of cartilage has not yet been investigated because it is challenging to evaluate in vivo contact areas, pressure, and deformations from metal implants. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the contact pressure in the tibiofemoral joint with a focal knee arthroplasty using a finite element model. Methods. The mechanical behaviour of the cartilage surrounding a metal implant was evaluated using finite element analysis. We modelled focal knee arthroplasty with placement flush, 0.5 mm deep, or protruding 0.5 mm with regard to the level of the surrounding cartilage. We compared contact stress and pressure for bone, implant, and cartilage under static loading conditions. Results. Contact stress on medial and lateral femoral and tibial cartilages increased and decreased, respectively, the most and the least in the protruding model compared to the intact model. The deep model exhibited the closest tibiofemoral contact stress to the intact model. In addition, the deep model demonstrated load sharing between the bone and the implant, while the protruding and flush model showed stress shielding. The data revealed that resurfacing with a focal knee arthroplasty does not cause increased contact pressure with deep implantation. However, protruding implantation leads to increased contact pressure, decreased bone stress, and biomechanical disadvantage in an in vivo application. Conclusion. These results show that it is preferable to leave an edge slightly deep rather than flush and protruding. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2023;12(8):497–503

Aims. To review the evidence and reach consensus on recommendations for follow-up after total hip and knee arthroplasty. Methods. A programme of work was conducted, including: a systematic review of the clinical and cost-effectiveness literature; analysis of routine national datasets to identify pre-, peri-, and postoperative predictors of mid-to-late term revision; prospective data analyses from 560 patients to understand how patients present for revision surgery; qualitative interviews with NHS managers and orthopaedic surgeons; and health economic modelling. Finally, a consensus meeting considered all the work and agreed the final recommendations and research areas. Results. The UK poSt Arthroplasty Follow-up rEcommendations (UK SAFE) recommendations apply to post-primary hip and knee arthroplasty follow-up. The ten-year time point is based on a lack of robust evidence beyond ten years. The term 'complex cases' refers to individual patient and surgical factors that may increase the risk for arthroplasty failure. For Orthopaedic Data Evaluation Panel (ODEP) 10A* minimum implants, it is safe to disinvest in routine follow-up from one to ten years post-non-complex hip and knee arthroplasty provided there is rapid access to orthopaedic review. For ODEP 10A* minimum implants in complex cases, or non-ODEP 10A* minimum implants, periodic follow-up post-hip and knee arthroplasty may be required from one to ten years. At ten years post-hip and knee arthroplasty, clinical and radiological evaluation is recommended. After ten years post-hip and knee arthroplasty, frequency of further follow-up should be based on the ten-year assessment; ongoing rapid access to orthopaedic review is still required. Conclusion. Complex cases, implants not meeting the ODEP 10A* criteria, and follow-up after revision surgery are not covered by this recommendation. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(2):72–78

Aims. The aim of this study was to determine the risk of tibial eminence avulsion intraoperatively for bi-unicondylar knee arthroplasty (Bi-UKA), with consideration of the effect of implant positioning, overstuffing, and sex, compared to the risk for isolated medial unicondylar knee arthroplasty (UKA-M) and bicruciate-retaining total knee arthroplasty (BCR-TKA). Methods. Two experimentally validated finite element models of tibia were implanted with UKA-M, Bi-UKA, and BCR-TKA. Intraoperative loads were applied through the condyles, anterior cruciate ligament (ACL), medial collateral ligament (MCL), and lateral collateral ligament (LCL), and the risk of fracture (ROF) was evaluated in the spine as the ratio of the 95. th. percentile maximum principal elastic strains over the tensile yield strain of proximal tibial bone. Results. Peak tensile strains occurred on the anterior portion of the medial sagittal cut in all simulations. Lateral translation of the medial implant in Bi-UKA had the largest increase in ROF of any of the implant positions (43%). Overstuffing the joint by 2 mm had a much larger effect, resulting in a six-fold increase in ROF. Bi-UKA had ~10% increased ROF compared to UKA-M for both the male and female models, although the smaller, less dense female model had a 1.4 times greater ROF compared to the male model. Removal of anterior bone akin to BCR-TKA doubled ROF compared to Bi-UKA. Conclusion. Tibial eminence avulsion fracture has a similar risk associated with Bi-UKA to UKA-M. The risk is higher for smaller and less dense tibiae. To minimize risk, it is most important to avoid overstuffing the joint, followed by correctly positioning the medial implant, taking care not to narrow the bone island anteriorly. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2022;11(8):575–584

Aims. To assess the cost-effectiveness of a two-layer compression bandage versus a standard wool and crepe bandage following total knee arthroplasty, using patient-level data from the Knee Replacement Bandage Study (KReBS). Methods. A cost-utility analysis was undertaken alongside KReBS, a pragmatic, two-arm, open label, parallel-group, randomized controlled trial, in terms of the cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). Overall, 2,330 participants scheduled for total knee arthroplasty (TKA) were randomized to either a two-layer compression bandage or a standard wool and crepe bandage. Costs were estimated over a 12-month period from the UK NHS perspective, and health outcomes were reported as QALYs based on participants’ EuroQol five-dimesion five-level questionnaire responses. Multiple imputation was used to deal with missing data and sensitivity analyses included a complete case analysis and testing of costing assumptions, with a secondary analysis exploring the inclusion of productivity losses. Results. The base case analysis found participants in the compression bandage group accrued marginally fewer QALYs, on average, compared with those in the standard bandage group (reduction of 0.0050 QALYs (95% confidence interval (CI) -0.0051 to -0.0049)), and accumulated additional mean costs (incremental cost of £52.68 per participant (95% CI 50.56 to 54.80)). Findings remained robust to assumptions tested in sensitivity analyses, although considerable uncertainty surrounded the outcome estimates. Conclusion. Use of a two-layer compression bandage is marginally less effective in terms of health-related quality of life, and more expensive when compared with a standard bandage following TKA, so therefore is unlikely to provide a cost-effective option. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(7):550–559

Aims. Hip and knee arthroplasty is commonly performed for end-stage arthritis. There is limited information to guide golfers on the impact this procedure will have postoperatively. This study aimed to determine the impact of lower limb arthroplasty on amateur golfer performance and return to play. Methods. A retrospective observational study was designed to collect information from golfers following arthroplasty. Data were collected from 18 April 2019 to 30 April 2019 and combined a patient survey with in-app handicap data. Results. A total of 2,198 responses were analyzed (1,097 hip and 1,101 knee). Of the respondents, 1,763 (80%) were male and the mean age was 70 years (26 to 92). Hip arthroplasty was associated with a mean increase in handicap of 1.03 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.81 to 1.25). No difference was seen between isolated leading or trailing leg (p = 0.428). Bilateral hip arthroplasty increased handicap (p < 0.001). Overall, 1,025 (94%) maintained or increased the amount of golf played, 258 (23.5%) returned to iron shots at six weeks, 883 (80%) returned to club competitions at six months, 18 (1.6%) had persistent pain, and 19 (1.7%) were unable to return to play. Knee arthroplasty was associated with a mean increase in handicap of 1.18 (95% CI 0.99 to 1.38). Trailing leg arthroplasty alone was associated with higher postoperative handicap (p = 0.002) as was bilateral surgery (p = 0.009). Overall, 1,009 (92%) maintained or increased the amount of golf played, 270 (25%) returned to iron shots at six weeks, 842 (76%) returned to club competition at six months, 66 (6%) had persistent pain, and 18 (1.6%) were unable to return to play. Conclusion. Hip and knee arthroplasty enables patients to maintain or increase the amount of golf played. The majority return to competitions within one year. Return to iron shots occurs from six weeks. A small increase in handicap following surgery is expected and is larger in patients undergoing bilateral surgery or those with knee arthroplasty to their trailing leg. Patients may still experience pain when playing golf. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(6):510–514

Aims. Aseptic loosening is the most common cause of failure following cemented total knee arthroplasty (TKA), and has been linked to poor cementation technique. We aimed to develop a consensus on the optimal technique for component cementation in TKA. Methods. A UK-based, three-round, online modified Delphi Expert Consensus Study was completed focusing on cementation technique in TKA. Experts were identified as having a minimum of five years’ consultant experience in the NHS and fulfilling any one of the following criteria: a ‘high volume’ knee arthroplasty practice (> 150 TKAs per annum) as identified from the National joint Registry of England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Isle of Man; a senior author of at least five peer reviewed articles related to TKA in the previous five years; a surgeon who is named trainer for a post-certificate of comletion of training fellowship in TKA. Results. In total, 81 experts (round 1) and 80 experts (round 2 and 3) completed the Delphi Study. Four domains with a total of 24 statements were identified. 100% consensus was reached within the cement preparation, pressurization, and cement curing domains. 90% consensus was reached within the cement application domain. Consensus was not reached with only one statement regarding the handling of cement during initial application to the tibial and/or femoral bone surfaces. Conclusion. The Cementing Techniques In Knee Surgery (CeTIKS) Delphi consensus study presents comprehensive recommendations on the optimal technique for component cementing in TKA. Expert opinion has a place in the hierarchy of evidence and, until better evidence is available these recommendations should be considered when cementing a TKA. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(9):682–688

Cementless knee arthroplasty has seen a recent resurgence in popularity due to conceptual advantages, including improved osseointegration providing biological fixation, increased surgical efficiency, and reduced systemic complications associated with cement impaction and wear from cement debris. Increasingly younger and higher demand patients are requiring knee arthroplasty, and as such, there is optimism cementless fixation may improve implant survivorship and functional outcomes. Compared to cemented implants, the National Joint Registry (NJR) currently reports higher revision rates in cementless total knee arthroplasty (TKA), but lower in unicompartmental knee arthroplasty (UKA). However, recent studies are beginning to show excellent outcomes with cementless implants, particularly with UKA which has shown superior performance to cemented varieties. Cementless TKA has yet to show long-term benefit, and currently performs equivalently to cemented in short- to medium-term cohort studies. However, with novel concepts including 3D-printed coatings, robotic-assisted surgery, radiostereometric analysis, and kinematic or functional knee alignment principles, it is hoped they may help improve the outcomes of cementless TKA in the long-term. In addition, though cementless implant costs remain higher due to novel implant coatings, it is speculated cost-effectiveness can be achieved through greater surgical efficiency and potential reduction in revision costs. There is paucity of level one data on long-term outcomes between fixation methods and the cost-effectiveness of modern cementless knee arthroplasty. This review explores recent literature on cementless knee arthroplasty, with regards to clinical outcomes, implant survivorship, complications, and cost-effectiveness; providing a concise update to assist clinicians on implant choice. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(1):48–57

Aims. Femoral periprosthetic fractures are rising in incidence. Their management is complex and carries a high associated mortality. Unlike native hip fractures, there are no guidelines advising on time to theatre in this group. We aim to determine whether delaying surgical intervention influences morbidity or mortality in femoral periprosthetic fractures. Methods. We identified all periprosthetic fractures around a hip or knee arthroplasty from our prospectively collated database between 2012 and 2021. Patients were categorized into early or delayed intervention based on time from admission to surgery (early = ≤ 36 hours, delayed > 36 hours). Patient demographics, existing implants, Unified Classification System fracture subtype, acute medical issues on admission, preoperative haemoglobin, blood transfusion requirement, and length of hospital stay were identified for all patients. Complication and mortality rates were compared between groups. Results. A total of 365 patients were identified: 140 in the early and 225 in the delayed intervention group. Mortality rate was 4.1% at 30 days and 19.2% at one year. There was some indication that those who had surgery within 36 hours had a higher mortality rate, but this did not reach statistical significance at 30 days (p = 0.078) or one year (p = 0.051). Univariate analysis demonstrated that age, preoperative haemoglobin, acute medical issue on admission, and the presence of postoperative complications influenced 30-day and one-year mortality. Using a multivariate model, age and preoperative haemoglobin were independently predictive factors for one-year mortality (odds ratio (OR) 1.071; p < 0.001 and OR 0.980; p = 0.020). There was no association between timing of surgery and postoperative complications. Postoperative complications were more likely with increasing age (OR 1.032; p = 0.001) and revision arthroplasty compared to internal fixation (OR 0.481; p = 0.001). Conclusion. While early intervention may be preferable to reduce prolonged immobilization, there is no evidence that delaying surgery beyond 36 hours increases mortality or complications in patients with a femoral periprosthetic fracture. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(6):452–456

Aims. The metabolic equivalent of task (MET) score examines patient performance in relation to energy expenditure before and after knee arthroplasty. This study assesses its use in a knee arthroplasty population in comparison with the widely used Oxford Knee Score (OKS) and EuroQol five-dimension index (EQ-5D), which are reported to be limited by ceiling effects. Methods. A total of 116 patients with OKS, EQ-5D, and MET scores before, and at least six months following, unilateral primary knee arthroplasty were identified from a database. Procedures were performed by a single surgeon between 2014 and 2019 consecutively. Scores were analyzed for normality, skewness, kurtosis, and the presence of ceiling/floor effects. Concurrent validity between the MET score, OKS, and EQ-5D was assessed using Spearman’s rank. Results. Postoperatively the OKS and EQ-5D demonstrated negative skews in distribution, with high kurtosis at six months and one year. The OKS demonstrated a ceiling effect at one year (15.7%) postoperatively. The EQ-5D demonstrated a ceiling effect at six months (30.2%) and one year (39.8%) postoperatively. The MET score did not demonstrate a skewed distribution or ceiling effect either at six months or one year postoperatively. Weak-moderate correlations were noted between the MET score and conventional scores at six months and one year postoperatively. Conclusion. In contrast to the OKS and EQ-5D, the MET score was normally distributed postoperatively with no ceiling effect. It is worth consideration as an arthroplasty outcome measure, particularly for patients with high expectations. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(3):129–137

Aims. The efficacy and safety of intrawound vancomycin for preventing surgical site infection in primary hip and knee arthroplasty is uncertain. Methods. A systematic review of the literature was conducted, indexed from inception to March 2020 in PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, Embase, and Google Scholar databases. All studies evaluating the efficacy and/or safety of intrawound vancomycin in patients who underwent primary hip and knee arthroplasty were included. Incidence of periprosthetic joint infection (PJI), superficial infection, aseptic wound complications, acute kidney injury, anaphylactic reaction, and ototoxicity were meta-analyzed. Results were reported as odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The quality of included studies was assessed using the risk of bias in non-randomized studies of interventions (ROBINS-I) assessment tool. Results. Nine studies involving 4,607 patients were included. Intrawound vancomycin was associated with lower incidence of PJI (30 patients (1.20%) vs 58 control patients (2.75%); OR 0.44, 95% CI 0.28 to 0.69) and simultaneous acute kidney injury (four patients (0.28%) vs four control patients (0.35%), OR 0.71, 95% CI 0.19 to 2.55). However, it did not reduce risk of superficial infection (four patients (0.67%) vs six control patients (1.60%), OR 0.60, 95% CI 0.17 to 2.12) and was associated with higher incidence of aseptic wound complications (23 patients (2.15%) vs eight in control patients (0.96%), OR 2.39, 95% CI 1.09 to 5.23). Four studies reported no anaphylactic reactions and three studies reported no ototoxicity in any patient group. Conclusion. The current literature suggests that intrawound vancomycin used in primary hip and knee arthroplasty may reduce incidence of PJI, but it may also increase risk of aseptic wound complications. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2020;9(11):778–788

Aims. A substantial fraction of patients undergoing knee arthroplasty (KA) or hip arthroplasty (HA) do not achieve an improvement as high as the minimal clinically important difference (MCID), i.e. do not achieve a meaningful improvement. Using three patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs), our aim was: 1) to assess machine learning (ML), the simple pre-surgery PROM score, and logistic-regression (LR)-derived performance in their prediction of whether patients undergoing HA or KA achieve an improvement as high or higher than a calculated MCID; and 2) to test whether ML is able to outperform LR or pre-surgery PROM scores in predictive performance. Methods. MCIDs were derived using the change difference method in a sample of 1,843 HA and 1,546 KA patients. An artificial neural network, a gradient boosting machine, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression, ridge regression, elastic net, random forest, LR, and pre-surgery PROM scores were applied to predict MCID for the following PROMs: EuroQol five-dimension, five-level questionnaire (EQ-5D-5L), EQ visual analogue scale (EQ-VAS), Hip disability and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score-Physical Function Short-form (HOOS-PS), and Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score-Physical Function Short-form (KOOS-PS). Results. Predictive performance of the best models per outcome ranged from 0.71 for HOOS-PS to 0.84 for EQ-VAS (HA sample). ML statistically significantly outperformed LR and pre-surgery PROM scores in two out of six cases. Conclusion. MCIDs can be predicted with reasonable performance. ML was able to outperform traditional methods, although only in a minority of cases. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2023;12(9):512–521

Aims. Elective orthopaedic services have had to adapt to significant system-wide pressures since the emergence of COVID-19 in December 2019. Length of stay is often recognized as a key marker of quality of care in patients undergoing arthroplasty. Expeditious discharge is key in establishing early rehabilitation and in reducing infection risk, both procedure-related and from COVID-19. The primary aim was to determine the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic length of stay following hip and knee arthroplasty at a high-volume, elective orthopaedic centre. Methods. A retrospective cohort study was performed. Patients undergoing primary or revision hip or knee arthroplasty over a six-month period, from 1 July to 31 December 2020, were compared to the same period in 2019 before the COVID-19 pandemic. Demographic data, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade, wait to surgery, COVID-19 status, and length of hospital stay were recorded. Results. A total of 1,311 patients underwent hip or knee arthroplasty in the six-month period following recommencement of elective services in 2020 compared to 1,527 patients the year before. Waiting time to surgery increased in post-COVID-19 group (137 days vs 78; p < 0.001). Length of stay also significantly increased (0.49 days; p < 0.001) despite no difference in age or ASA grade. There were no cases of postoperative COVID-19 infection. Conclusion. Time to surgery and length of hospital stay were significantly higher following recommencement of elective orthopaedic services in the latter part of 2020 in comparison to a similar patient cohort from the year before. Longer waiting times may have contributed to the clinical and radiological deterioration of arthritis and general musculoskeletal conditioning, which may in turn have affected immediate postoperative rehabilitation and mobilization, as well as increasing hospital stay. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(8):655–660

Aims. To develop and validate patient-centred algorithms that estimate individual risk of death over the first year after elective joint arthroplasty surgery for osteoarthritis. Methods. A total of 763,213 hip and knee joint arthroplasty episodes recorded in the National Joint Registry for England and Wales (NJR) and 105,407 episodes from the Norwegian Arthroplasty Register were used to model individual mortality risk over the first year after surgery using flexible parametric survival regression. Results. The one-year mortality rates in the NJR were 10.8 and 8.9 per 1,000 patient-years after hip and knee arthroplasty, respectively. The Norwegian mortality rates were 9.1 and 6.0 per 1,000 patient-years, respectively. The strongest predictors of death in the final models were age, sex, body mass index, and American Society of Anesthesiologists grade. Exposure variables related to the intervention, with the exception of knee arthroplasty type, did not add discrimination over patient factors alone. Discrimination was good in both cohorts, with c-indices above 0.76 for the hip and above 0.70 for the knee. Time-dependent Brier scores indicated appropriate estimation of the mortality rate (≤ 0.01, all models). Conclusion. Simple demographic and clinical information may be used to calculate an individualized estimation for one-year mortality risk after hip or knee arthroplasty (. https://jointcalc.shef.ac.uk. ). These models may be used to provide patients with an estimate of the risk of mortality after joint arthroplasty. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2020;9(11):808–820