Aims. The aim of this study was to assess the ability of morphological spinal parameters to predict the outcome of bracing in patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) and to establish a novel supine correction index (SCI) for guiding bracing treatment. Methods. Patients with AIS to be treated by bracing were prospectively recruited between December 2016 and 2018, and were followed until brace removal. In all, 207 patients with a mean age at recruitment of 12.8 years (SD 1.2) were enrolled. Cobb angles, supine flexibility, and the rate of in-brace correction were measured and used to predict curve progression at the end of follow-up. The SCI was defined as the ratio between correction rate and flexibility. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was carried out to assess the optimal thresholds for flexibility, correction rate, and SCI in predicting a higher risk of progression, defined by a change in Cobb angle of ≥ 5° or the need for surgery. Results. The baseline Cobb angles were similar (p = 0.374) in patients whose curves progressed (32.7° (SD 10.7)) and in those whose curves remained stable (31.4° (SD 6.1)). High supine flexibility (odds ratio (OR) 0.947 (95% CI 0.910 to 0.984); p = 0.006) and correction rate (OR 0.926 (95% CI 0.890 to 0.964); p < 0.001) predicted a lower incidence of progression after adjusting for Cobb angle, Risser sign, curve type, menarche status, distal radius and ulna grading, and brace compliance. ROC curve analysis identified a cut-off of 18.1% for flexibility (sensitivity 0.682, specificity 0.704) and a cut-off of 28.8% for correction rate (sensitivity 0.773, specificity 0.691) in predicting a lower risk of curve progression. A SCI of greater than 1.21 predicted a lower risk of progression (OR 0.4 (95% CI 0.251 to 0.955); sensitivity 0.583, specificity 0.591; p = 0.036). Conclusion. A higher supine flexibility (18.1%) and correction rate (28.8%), and a SCI of greater than 1.21 predicted a lower risk of progression. These novel parameters can be used as a guide to optimize the outcome of bracing. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(4):495–503

Aims. We aimed to develop a gene signature that predicts the occurrence of postmenopausal osteoporosis (PMOP) by studying its genetic mechanism. Methods. Five datasets were obtained from the Gene Expression Omnibus database. Unsupervised consensus cluster analysis was used to determine new PMOP subtypes. To determine the central genes and the core modules related to PMOP, the weighted gene co-expression network analysis (WCGNA) was applied. Gene Ontology enrichment analysis was used to explore the biological processes underlying key genes. Logistic regression univariate analysis was used to screen for statistically significant variables. Two algorithms were used to select important PMOP-related genes. A logistic regression model was used to construct the PMOP-related gene profile. The receiver operating characteristic area under the curve, Harrell’s concordance index, a calibration chart, and decision curve analysis were used to characterize PMOP-related genes. Then, quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) was used to verify the expression of the PMOP-related genes in the gene signature. Results. We identified three PMOP-related subtypes and four core modules. The muscle system process, muscle contraction, and actin filament-based movement were more active in the hub genes. We obtained five feature genes related to PMOP. Our analysis verified that the gene signature had good predictive power and applicability. The outcomes of the GSE56815 cohort were found to be consistent with the results of the earlier studies. qRT-PCR results showed that RAB2A and FYCO1 were amplified in clinical samples. Conclusion. The PMOP-related gene signature we developed and verified can accurately predict the risk of PMOP in patients. These results can elucidate the molecular mechanism of RAB2A and FYCO1 underlying PMOP, and yield new and improved treatment strategies, ultimately helping PMOP monitoring. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2022;11(8):548–560

Aims. The aim of this study was to evaluate the reliability and validity of a patient-specific algorithm which we developed for predicting changes in sagittal pelvic tilt after total hip arthroplasty (THA). Methods. This retrospective study included 143 patients who underwent 171 THAs between April 2019 and October 2020 and had full-body lateral radiographs preoperatively and at one year postoperatively. We measured the pelvic incidence (PI), the sagittal vertical axis (SVA), pelvic tilt, sacral slope (SS), lumbar lordosis (LL), and thoracic kyphosis to classify patients into types A, B1, B2, B3, and C. The change of pelvic tilt was predicted according to the normal range of SVA (0 mm to 50 mm) for types A, B1, B2, and B3, and based on the absolute value of one-third of the PI-LL mismatch for type C patients. The reliability of the classification of the patients and the prediction of the change of pelvic tilt were assessed using kappa values and intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs), respectively. Validity was assessed using the overall mean error and mean absolute error (MAE) for the prediction of the change of pelvic tilt. Results. The kappa values were 0.927 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.861 to 0.992) and 0.945 (95% CI 0.903 to 0.988) for the inter- and intraobserver reliabilities, respectively, and the ICCs ranged from 0.919 to 0.997. The overall mean error and MAE for the prediction of the change of pelvic tilt were -0.3° (SD 3.6°) and 2.8° (SD 2.4°), respectively. The overall absolute change of pelvic tilt was 5.0° (SD 4.1°). Pre- and postoperative values and changes in pelvic tilt, SVA, SS, and LL varied significantly among the five types of patient. Conclusion. We found that the proposed algorithm was reliable and valid for predicting the standing pelvic tilt after THA. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(1):19–27

Aims. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between fracture displacement and survivorship of the native hip joint without conversion to a total hip arthroplasty (THA), and to determine predictors for conversion to THA in patients treated nonoperatively for acetabular fractures. Methods. A multicentre cross-sectional study was performed in 170 patients who were treated nonoperatively for an acetabular fracture in three level 1 trauma centres. Using the post-injury diagnostic CT scan, the maximum gap and step-off values in the weightbearing dome were digitally measured by two trauma surgeons. Native hip survival was reported using Kaplan-Meier curves. Predictors for conversion to THA were determined using Cox regression analysis. Results. Of 170 patients, 22 (13%) subsequently received a THA. Native hip survival in patients with a step-off ≤ 2 mm, > 2 to 4 mm, or > 4 mm differed at five-year follow-up (respectively: 94% vs 70% vs 74%). Native hip survival in patients with a gap ≤ 2 mm, > 2 to 4 mm, or > 4 mm differed at five-year follow-up (respectively: 100% vs 84% vs 78%). Step-off displacement > 2 mm (> 2 to 4 mm hazard ratio (HR) 4.9, > 4 mm HR 5.6) and age > 60 years (HR 2.9) were independent predictors for conversion to THA at follow-up. Conclusion. Patients with minimally displaced acetabular fractures who opt for nonoperative fracture treatment may be informed that fracture displacement (e.g. gap and step-off) up to 2 mm, as measured on CT images, results in limited risk on conversion to THA. Step-off ≥ 2 mm and age > 60 years are predictors for conversion to THA and can be helpful in the shared decision-making process. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(9):1020–1029

Aims. Transfusion after primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) has become rare, and identification of causative factors allows preventive measures. The aim of this study was to determine patient-specific factors that increase the risk of needing a blood transfusion. Methods. All patients who underwent elective THA were analyzed retrospectively in this single-centre study from 2020 to 2021. A total of 2,892 patients were included. Transfusion-related parameters were evaluated. A multiple logistic regression was performed to determine whether age, BMI, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade, sex, or preoperative haemoglobin (Hb) could predict the need for transfusion within the examined patient population. Results. The overall transfusion rate was 1.2%. Compared to the group of patients without blood transfusion, the transfused group was on average older (aged 73.8 years (SD 9.7) vs 68.6 years (SD 10.1); p = 0.020) and was mostly female (p = 0.003), but showed no significant differences in terms of BMI (28.3 kg/m. 2. (SD 5.9) vs 28.7 kg/m. 2. (SD 5.2); p = 0.720) or ASA grade (2.2 (SD 0.5) vs 2.1 (SD 0.4); p = 0.378). The regression model identified a cutoff Hb level of < 7.6 mmol/l (< 12.2 g/dl), aged > 73 years, and a BMI of 35.4 kg/m² or higher as the three most reliable predictors associated with postoperative transfusion in THA. Conclusion. The possibility of transfusion is predictable based on preoperatively available parameters. The proposed thresholds for preoperative Hb level, age, and BMI can help identify patients and take preventive measures if necessary. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(7):560–564

Aims. The aims of this study were to assess mapping models to predict the three-level version of EuroQoL five-dimension utility index (EQ-5D-3L) from the Oxford Knee Score (OKS) and validate these before and after total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Methods. A retrospective cohort of 5,857 patients was used to create the prediction models, and a second cohort of 721 patients from a different centre was used to validate the models, all of whom underwent TKA. Patient characteristics, BMI, OKS, and EQ-5D-3L were collected preoperatively and one year postoperatively. Generalized linear regression was used to formulate the prediction models. Results. There were significant correlations between the OKS and EQ-5D-3L preoperatively (r = 0.68; p < 0.001) and postoperatively (r = 0.77; p < 0.001) and for the change in the scores (r = 0.61; p < 0.001). Three different models (preoperative, postoperative, and change) were created. There were no significant differences between the actual and predicted mean EQ-5D-3L utilities at any timepoint or for change in the scores (p > 0.090) in the validation cohort. There was a significant correlation between the actual and predicted EQ-5D-3L utilities preoperatively (r = 0.63; p < 0.001) and postoperatively (r = 0.77; p < 0.001) and for the change in the scores (r = 0.56; p < 0.001). Bland-Altman plots demonstrated that a lower utility was overestimated, and higher utility was underestimated. The individual predicted EQ-5D-3L that was within ± 0.05 and ± 0.010 (minimal clinically important difference (MCID)) of the actual EQ-5D-3L varied between 13% to 35% and 26% to 64%, respectively, according to timepoint assessed and change in the scores, but was not significantly different between the modelling and validation cohorts (p ≥ 0.148). Conclusion. The OKS can be used to estimate EQ-5D-3L. Predicted individual patient utility error beyond the MCID varied from one-third to two-thirds depending on timepoint assessed, but the mean for a cohort did not differ and could be employed for this purpose. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(7):573–581

Aims. The aim of this study was to review the current evidence surrounding curve type and morphology on curve progression risk in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS). Methods. A comprehensive search was conducted by two independent reviewers on PubMed, Embase, Medline, and Web of Science to obtain all published information on morphological predictors of AIS progression. Search items included ‘adolescent idiopathic scoliosis’, ‘progression’, and ‘imaging’. The inclusion and exclusion criteria were carefully defined. Risk of bias of studies was assessed with the Quality in Prognostic Studies tool, and level of evidence for each predictor was rated with the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations (GRADE) approach. In all, 6,286 publications were identified with 3,598 being subjected to secondary scrutiny. Ultimately, 26 publications (25 datasets) were included in this review. Results. For unbraced patients, high and moderate evidence was found for Cobb angle and curve type as predictors, respectively. Initial Cobb angle > 25° and thoracic curves were predictive of curve progression. For braced patients, flexibility < 28% and limited in-brace correction were factors predictive of progression with high and moderate evidence, respectively. Thoracic curves, high apical vertebral rotation, large rib vertebra angle difference, small rib vertebra angle on the convex side, and low pelvic tilt had weak evidence as predictors of curve progression. Conclusion. For curve progression, strong and consistent evidence is found for Cobb angle, curve type, flexibility, and correction rate. Cobb angle > 25° and flexibility < 28% are found to be important thresholds to guide clinical prognostication. Despite the low evidence, apical vertebral rotation, rib morphology, and pelvic tilt may be promising factors. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(4):424–432

Aims. We assessed the value of the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) in the prediction of adverse outcome after hip fracture. Methods. Of 1,577 consecutive patients aged > 65 years with a fragility hip fracture admitted to one institution, for whom there were complete data, 1,255 (72%) were studied. Clinicians assigned CFS scores on admission. Audit personnel routinely prospectively completed the Standardised Audit of Hip Fracture in Europe form, including the following outcomes: 30-day survival; in-hospital complications; length of acute hospital stay; and new institutionalization. The relationship between the CFS scores and outcomes was examined graphically and the visual interpretations were tested statistically. The predictive values of the CFS and Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS) to predict 30-day mortality were compared using receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (AUC) analysis. Results. Significant non-linear associations between CFS and outcomes were observed. Risk of death within 30 days rose linearly for CFS 1 to 5, but plateaued for CFS > 5. The incidence of complications and length of stay rose linearly for CFS 1 to 4, but plateaued for CFS > 4. In contrast, the risk of new institutionalization rose linearly for CFS 1 to 8. The AUCs for 30-day mortality for the CFS and NHFS were very similar: CFS AUC 0.63 (95% CI 0.57 to 0.69) and NHFS AUC 0.63 (95% CI 0.57 to 0.69). Conclusion. Use of the CFS may provide useful information on outcomes for fitter patients presenting with hip fracture, but completion of the CFS by the admitting orthopaedic team does not appear successful in distinguishing between higher CFS categories, which define patients with frailty. This makes a strong case for the role of the orthogeriatrician in the early assessment of these patients. Further work is needed to understand why patients assessed as being of mild, moderate, and severe frailty do not result in different outcomes. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(8):980–986

Aims. Hip fractures are some of the most common fractures encountered in orthopaedic practice. We aimed to identify whether perioperative hypotension is a predictor of 30-day mortality, and to stratify patient groups that would benefit from closer monitoring and early intervention. While there is literature on intraoperative blood pressure, there are limited studies examining pre- and postoperative blood pressure. Methods. We conducted a prospective observational cohort study over a one-year period from December 2021 to December 2022. Patient demographic details, biochemical results, and haemodynamic observations were taken from electronic medical records. Statistical analysis was conducted with the Cox proportional hazards model, and the effects of independent variables estimated with the Wald statistic. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were estimated with the log-rank test. Results. A total of 528 patients were identified as suitable for inclusion. On multivariate analysis, postoperative hypotension of a systolic blood pressure (SBP) < 90 mmHg two to 24 hours after surgery showed an increased hazard ratio (HR) for 30-day mortality (HR 4.6 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.3 to 8.9); p < 0.001) and was an independent risk factor accounting for sex (HR 2.7 (95% CI 1.4 to 5.2); p = 0.003), age (HR 1.1 (95% CI 1.0 to 1.1); p = 0.016), American Society of Anesthesiologists grade (HR 2.7 (95% CI 1.5 to 4.6); p < 0.001), time to theatre > 24 hours (HR 2.1 (95% CI 1.1 to 4.2); p = 0.025), and preoperative anaemia (HR 2.3 (95% CI 1.0 to 5.2); p = 0.043). A preoperative SBP of < 120 mmHg was close to achieving significance (HR 1.9 (95% CI 0.99 to 3.6); p = 0.052). Conclusion. Our study is the first to demonstrate that postoperative hypotension within the first 24 hours is an independent risk factor for 30-day mortality after hip fracture surgery. Clinicians should recognize patients who have a SBP of < 90 mmHg in the early postoperative period, and be aware of the increased mortality risk in this specific cohort who may benefit from a closer level of monitoring and early intervention. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(2):189–194

Aims. A proximal femur fracture (PFF) is a common orthopaedic presentation, with an incidence of over 25,000 cases reported in the Australian and New Zealand Hip Fracture Registry (ANZHFR) in 2018. Hip fractures are known to have high mortality. The purpose of this study was to determine the utility of the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) in predicting 30-day and one-year mortality after a PFF in older patients. Methods. A retrospective review of all fragility hip fractures who met the inclusion/exclusion criteria of the ANZHFR between 2017 and 2018 was undertaken at a single large volume tertiary hospital. There were 509 patients included in the study with one-year follow-up obtained in 502 cases. The CFS was applied retrospectively to patients according to their documented pre-morbid function and patients were stratified into five groups according to their frailty score. The groups were compared using t-test, analysis of variance (ANOVA), and the chi-squared test. The discriminative ability of the CFS to predict mortality was then compared with American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) classification and the patient’s chronological age. Results. A total of 38 patients were deceased at 30 days and 135 patients at one year. The 30-day mortality rate increased from 1.3% (CFS 1 to 3; 1/80) to 14.6% (CFS ≥ 7; 22/151), and the one-year mortality increased from 3.8% (CFS 1 to 3; 3/80) to 41.7% (CFS ≥ 7; 63/151). The CFS was demonstrated superior discriminative ability in predicting mortality after PFF (area under the curve (AUC) 0.699; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.651 to 0.747) when compared with the ASA (AUC 0.634; 95% CI 0.576 to 0.691) and chronological age groups (AUC 0.585; 95% CI 0.523 to 0.648). Conclusion. The CFS demonstrated utility in predicting mortality after PFF fracture. The CFS can be easily performed by non-geriatricians and may help to reduce age related bias influencing surgical decision making. Cite this article: Bone Joint Open 2020;1-8:443–449

Aims. To evaluate if union of clavicle fractures can be predicted at six weeks post-injury by the presence of bridging callus on ultrasound. Methods. Adult patients managed nonoperatively with a displaced mid-shaft clavicle were recruited prospectively. Ultrasound evaluation of the fracture was undertaken to determine if sonographic bridging callus was present. Clinical risk factors at six weeks were used to stratify patients at high risk of nonunion with a combination of Quick Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand questionnaire (QuickDASH) ≥ 40, fracture movement on examination, or absence of callus on radiograph. Results. A total of 112 patients completed follow-up at six months with a nonunion incidence of 16.7% (n = 18/112). Sonographic bridging callus was detected in 62.5% (n = 70/112) of the cohort at six weeks post-injury. If present, union occurred in 98.6% of the fractures (n = 69/70). If absent, nonunion developed in 40.5% of cases (n = 17/42). The sensitivity to predict union with sonographic bridging callus at six weeks was 73.4% and the specificity was 94.4%. Regression analysis found that failure to detect sonographic bridging callus at six weeks was associated with older age, female sex, simple fracture pattern, smoking, and greater fracture displacement (Nagelkerke R. 2. = 0.48). Of the cohort, 30.4% (n = 34/112) had absent sonographic bridging callus in addition to one or more of the clinical risk factors at six weeks that predispose to nonunion. If one was present the nonunion rate was 35%, 60% with two, and 100% when combined with all three. Conclusion. Ultrasound combined with clinical risk factors can accurately predict fracture healing at six weeks following a displaced midshaft clavicle fracture. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2021;10(2):113–121

Aims. The distal radius is a major site of osteoporotic bone loss resulting in a high risk of fragility fracture. This study evaluated the capability of a cortical index (CI) at the distal radius to predict the local bone mineral density (BMD). Methods. A total of 54 human cadaver forearms (ten singles, 22 pairs) (19 to 90 years) were systematically assessed by clinical radiograph (XR), dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), CT, as well as high-resolution peripheral quantitative CT (HR-pQCT). Cortical bone thickness (CBT) of the distal radius was measured on XR and CT scans, and two cortical indices mean average (CBTavg) and gauge (CBTg) were determined. These cortical indices were compared to the BMD of the distal radius determined by DXA (areal BMD (aBMD)) and HR-pQCT (volumetric BMD (vBMD)). Pearson correlation coefficient (r) and intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) were used to compare the results and degree of reliability. Results. The CBT could accurately be determined on XRs and highly correlated to those determined on CT scans (r = 0.87 to 0.93). The CBTavg index of the XRs significantly correlated with the BMD measured by DXA (r = 0.78) and HR-pQCT (r = 0.63), as did the CBTg index with the DXA (r = 0.55) and HR-pQCT (r = 0.64) (all p < 0.001). A high correlation of the BMD and CBT was observed between paired specimens (r = 0.79 to 0.96). The intra- and inter-rater reliability was excellent (ICC 0.79 to 0.92). Conclusion. The cortical index (CBTavg) at the distal radius shows a close correlation to the local BMD. It thus can serve as an initial screening tool to estimate the local bone quality if quantitative BMD measurements are unavailable, and enhance decision-making in acute settings on fracture management or further osteoporosis screening. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2021;10(12):820–829

Aims. The COVID-19 pandemic has caused unprecedented disruption to elective orthopaedic services. The primary objective of this study was to examine changes in functional scores in patients awaiting total hip arthroplasty (THA), total knee arthroplasty (TKA), and unicompartmental knee arthroplasty (UKA). Secondary objectives were to investigate differences between these groups and identify those in a health state ‘worse than death’ (WTD). Methods. In this prospective cohort study, preoperative Oxford hip and knee scores (OHS/OKS) were recorded for patients added to a waiting list for THA, TKA, or UKA, during the initial eight months of the COVID-19 pandemic, and repeated at 14 months into the pandemic (mean interval nine months (SD 2.84)). EuroQoL five-dimension five-level health questionnaire (EQ-5D-5L) index scores were also calculated at this point in time, with a negative score representing a state WTD. OHS/OKS were analyzed over time and in relation to the EQ-5D-5L. Results. A total of 174 patients (58 THA, 74 TKA, 42 UKA) were eligible, after 27 were excluded (one died, seven underwent surgery, 19 non-responders). The overall mean OHS/OKS deteriorated from 15.43 (SD 6.92), when patients were added to the waiting list, to 11.77 (SD 6.45) during the pandemic (p < 0.001). There were significantly worse EQ-5D-5L index scores in the THA group (p = 0.005), with 22 of these patients (38%) in a health state WTD, than either the TKA group (20 patients; 27% WTD), or the UKA group (nine patients; 21% WTD). A strong positive correlation between the EQ-5D-5L index score and OHS/OKS was observed (r = 0.818; p < 0.001). Receiver operating characteristic analysis revealed that an OHS/OKS lower than nine predicted a health state WTD (88% sensitivity and 73% specificity). Conclusion. OHS/OKS deteriorated significantly among patients awaiting lower limb arthroplasty during the COVID-19 pandemic. Overall, 51 patients were in a health state WTD, representing 29% of our entire cohort, which is considerably worse than existing pre-pandemic data. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(3):138–145

Objectives. Researchers continue to seek easier ways to evaluate the quality of bone and screen for osteoporosis and osteopenia. Until recently, radiographic images of various parts of the body, except the distal femur, have been reappraised in the light of dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) findings. The incidence of osteoporotic fractures around the knee joint in the elderly continues to increase. The aim of this study was to propose two new radiographic parameters of the distal femur for the assessment of bone quality. Methods. Anteroposterior radiographs of the knee and bone mineral density (BMD) and T-scores from DXA scans of 361 healthy patients were prospectively analyzed. The mean cortical bone thickness (CBTavg) and the distal femoral cortex index (DFCI) were the two parameters that were proposed and measured. Intra- and interobserver reliabilities were assessed. Correlations between the BMD and T-score and these parameters were investigated and their value in the diagnosis of osteoporosis and osteopenia was evaluated. Results. The DFCI, as a ratio, had higher reliability than the CBTavg. Both showed significant correlation with BMD and T-score. When compared with DFCI, CBTavg showed better correlation and was better for predicting osteoporosis and osteopenia. Conclusion. The CBTavg and DFCI are simple and reliable screening tools for the prediction of osteoporosis and osteopenia. The CBTavg is more accurate but the DFCI is easier to use in clinical practice. Cite this article: Q-F. He, H. Sun, L-Y. Shu, Y. Zhu, X-T. Xie, Y. Zhan, C-F. Luo. Radiographic predictors for bone mineral loss: Cortical thickness and index of the distal femur. Bone Joint Res 2018;7:468–475. DOI: 10.1302/2046-3758.77.BJR-2017-0332.R1

Aims. The lateral centre-edge angle (LCEA) is a plain radiological measure of superolateral cover of the femoral head. This study aims to establish the correlation between 2D radiological and 3D CT measurements of acetabular morphology, and to describe the relationship between LCEA and femoral head cover (FHC). Methods. This retrospective study included 353 periacetabular osteotomies (PAOs) performed between January 2014 and December 2017. Overall, 97 hips in 75 patients had 3D analysis by Clinical Graphics, giving measurements for LCEA, acetabular index (AI), and FHC. Roentgenographical LCEA, AI, posterior wall index (PWI), and anterior wall index (AWI) were measured from supine AP pelvis radiographs. The correlation between CT and roentgenographical measurements was calculated. Sequential multiple linear regression was performed to determine the relationship between roentgenographical measurements and CT FHC. Results. CT-measured LCEA and AI correlated strongly with roentgenographical LCEA (r = 0.92; p < 0.001) and AI (r = 0.83; p < 0.001). Radiological LCEA correlated very strongly with CT FHC (r = 0.92; p < 0.001). The sum of AWI and PWI also correlated strongly with CTFHC (r = 0.73; p < 0.001). CT measurements of LCEA and AI were 3.4° less and 2.3° greater than radiological LCEA and AI measures. There was a linear relation between radiological LCEA and CT FHC. The linear regression model statistically significantly predicted FHC from LCEA, F(1,96) = 545.1 (p < 0.001), adjusted R. 2. = 85.0%, with the prediction equation: CT FHC(%) = 42.1 + 0.77(XRLCEA). Conclusion. CT and roentgenographical measurement of acetabular parameters are comparable. Currently, a radiological LCEA greater than 25° is considered normal. This study demonstrates that those with hip pain and normal radiological acetabular parameters may still have deficiencies in FHC. More sophisticated imaging techniques such as 3D CT should be considered for those with hip pain to identify deficiencies in FHC. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(1):12–19

Objectives. Intramedullary fixation is considered the most stable treatment for pertrochanteric fractures of the proximal femur and cut-out is one of the most frequent mechanical complications. In order to determine the role of clinical variables and radiological parameters in predicting the risk of this complication, we analysed the data pertaining to a group of patients recruited over the course of six years. Methods. A total of 571 patients were included in this study, which analysed the incidence of cut-out in relation to several clinical variables: age; gender; the AO Foundation and Orthopaedic Trauma Association classification system (AO/OTA); type of nail; cervical-diaphyseal angle; surgical wait times; anti-osteoporotic medication; complete post-operative weight bearing; and radiological parameters (namely the lag-screw position with respect to the femoral head, the Cleveland system, the tip-apex distance (TAD), and the calcar-referenced tip-apex distance (CalTAD)). Results. The incidence of cut-out across the sample was 5.6%, with a higher incidence in female patients. A significantly higher risk of this complication was correlated with lag-screw tip positioning in the upper part of the femoral head in the anteroposterior radiological view, posterior in the latero-lateral radiological view, and in the Cleveland peripheral zones. The tip-apex distance and the calcar-referenced tip-apex distance were found to be highly significant predictors of the risk of cut-out at cut-offs of 30.7 mm and 37.3 mm, respectively, but the former appeared more reliable than the latter in predicting the occurrence of this complication. Conclusion. The tip-apex distance remains the most accurate predictor of cut-out, which is significantly greater above a cut-off of 30.7 mm. Cite this article: G. Caruso, M. Bonomo, G. Valpiani, G. Salvatori, A. Gildone, V. Lorusso, L. Massari. A six-year retrospective analysis of cut-out risk predictors in cephalomedullary nailing for pertrochanteric fractures: Can the tip-apex distance (TAD) still be considered the best parameter?. Bone Joint Res 2017;6:481–488. DOI: 10.1302/2046-3758.68.BJR-2016-0299.R1

Aims. To devise a method to quantify and optimize tightness when inserting cortical screws, based on bone characterization and screw geometry. Methods. Cortical human cadaveric diaphyseal tibiae screw holes (n = 20) underwent destructive testing to firstly establish the relationship between cortical thickness and experimental stripping torque (T. str. ), and secondly to calibrate an equation to predict T. str. Using the equation’s predictions, 3.5 mm screws were inserted (n = 66) to targeted torques representing 40% to 100% of T. str. , with recording of compression generated during tightening. Once the target torque had been achieved, immediate pullout testing was performed. Results. Cortical thickness predicted T. str. (R. 2. = 0.862; p < 0.001) as did an equation based on tensile yield stress, bone-screw friction coefficient, and screw geometries (R. 2. = 0.894; p < 0.001). Compression increased with screw tightness up to 80% of the maximum (R. 2. = 0.495; p < 0.001). Beyond 80%, further tightening generated no increase in compression. Pullout force did not change with variations in submaximal tightness beyond 40% of T. str. (R. 2. = 0.014; p = 0.175). Conclusion. Screw tightening between 70% and 80% of the predicted maximum generated optimum compression and pullout forces. Further tightening did not considerably increase compression, made no difference to pullout, and increased the risk of the screw holes being stripped. While further work is needed for development of intraoperative methods for accurate and reliable prediction of the maximum tightness for a screw, this work justifies insertion torque being considerably below the maximum. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2020;9(8):493–500

Objectives. In this prospective cohort study, we investigated whether patient-specific finite element (FE) models can identify patients at risk of a pathological femoral fracture resulting from metastatic bone disease, and compared these FE predictions with clinical assessments by experienced clinicians. Methods. A total of 39 patients with non-fractured femoral metastatic lesions who were irradiated for pain were included from three radiotherapy institutes. During follow-up, nine pathological fractures occurred in seven patients. Quantitative CT-based FE models were generated for all patients. Femoral failure load was calculated and compared between the fractured and non-fractured femurs. Due to inter-scanner differences, patients were analyzed separately for the three institutes. In addition, the FE-based predictions were compared with fracture risk assessments by experienced clinicians. Results. In institute 1, median failure load was significantly lower for patients who sustained a fracture than for patients with no fractures. In institutes 2 and 3, the number of patients with a fracture was too low to make a clear distinction. Fracture locations were well predicted by the FE model when compared with post-fracture radiographs. The FE model was more accurate in identifying patients with a high fracture risk compared with experienced clinicians, with a sensitivity of 89% versus 0% to 33% for clinical assessments. Specificity was 79% for the FE models versus 84% to 95% for clinical assessments. Conclusion. FE models can be a valuable tool to improve clinical fracture risk predictions in metastatic bone disease. Future work in a larger patient population should confirm the higher predictive power of FE models compared with current clinical guidelines. Cite this article: F. Eggermont, L. C. Derikx, N. Verdonschot, I. C. M. van der Geest, M. A. A. de Jong, A. Snyers, Y. M. van der Linden, E. Tanck. Can patient-specific finite element models better predict fractures in metastatic bone disease than experienced clinicians? Towards computational modelling in daily clinical practice. Bone Joint Res 2018;7:430–439. DOI: 10.1302/2046-3758.76.BJR-2017-0325.R2

Aims. Fixation of osteoporotic proximal humerus fractures remains challenging even with state-of-the-art locking plates. Despite the demonstrated biomechanical benefit of screw tip augmentation with bone cement, the clinical findings have remained unclear, potentially as the optimal augmentation combinations are unknown. The aim of this study was to systematically evaluate the biomechanical benefits of the augmentation options in a humeral locking plate using finite element analysis (FEA). Methods. A total of 64 cement augmentation configurations were analyzed using six screws of a locking plate to virtually fix unstable three-part fractures in 24 low-density proximal humerus models under three physiological loading cases (4,608 simulations). The biomechanical benefit of augmentation was evaluated through an established FEA methodology using the average peri-screw bone strain as a validated predictor of cyclic cut-out failure. Results. The biomechanical benefit was already significant with a single cemented screw and increased with the number of augmented screws, but the configuration was highly influential. The best two-screw (mean 23%, SD 3% reduction) and the worst four-screw (mean 22%, SD 5%) combinations performed similarly. The largest benefits were achieved with augmenting screws purchasing into the calcar and having posteriorly located tips. Local bone mineral density was not directly related to the improvement. Conclusion. The number and configuration of cemented screws strongly determined how augmentation can alleviate the predicted risk of cut-out failure. Screws purchasing in the calcar and posterior humeral head regions may be prioritized. Although requiring clinical corroborations, these findings may explain the controversial results of previous clinical studies not controlling the choices of screw augmentation

Objectives. Preservation of posterior condylar offset (PCO) has been shown to correlate with improved functional results after primary total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Whether this is also the case for revision TKA, remains unknown. The aim of this study was to assess the independent effect of PCO on early functional outcome after revision TKA. Methods. A total of 107 consecutive aseptic revision TKAs were performed by a single surgeon during an eight-year period. The mean age was 69.4 years (39 to 85) and there were 59 female patients and 48 male patients. The Oxford Knee Score (OKS) and Short-form (SF)-12 score were assessed pre-operatively and one year post-operatively. Patient satisfaction was also assessed at one year. Joint line and PCO were assessed radiographically at one year. Results. There was a significant improvement in the OKS (10.6 points, 95% confidence interval (CI) 8.8 to 12.3) and the SF-12 physical component score (5.9, 95% CI 4.1 to 7.8). PCO directly correlated with change in OKS (p < 0.001). Linear regression analysis confirmed the independent effect of PCO on the OKS (p < 0.001) and the SF-12 physical score (p = 0.02). The overall rate of satisfaction was 85% and on logistic regression analysis improvement in the OKS (p = 0.002) was a significant predictor of patient satisfaction, which is related to PCO; although this was not independently associated with satisfaction. Conclusion. Preservation of PCO should be a major consideration when undertaking revision TKA. The option of increasing PCO to balance the flexion gap while maintaining the joint line should be assessed intra-operatively. Cite this article: N. D. Clement, D. J. MacDonald, D. F. Hamilton, R. Burnett. Posterior condylar offset is an independent predictor of functional outcome after revision total knee arthroplasty. Bone Joint Res 2017;6:172–178. DOI: 10.1302/2046-3758.63.BJR-2015-0021.R1

Aims

In-hospital length of stay (LOS) and discharge dispositions following arthroplasty could act as surrogate measures for improvement in patient pathways, and have major cost saving implications for healthcare providers. With the ever-growing adoption of robotic technology in arthroplasty, it is imperative to evaluate its impact on LOS. The objectives of this study were to compare LOS and discharge dispositions following robotic arm-assisted total knee arthroplasty (RO TKA) and unicompartmental arthroplasty (RO UKA) versus conventional technique (CO TKA and UKA).

Aims

Using tibial shaft fracture participants from a large, multicentre randomized controlled trial, we investigated if patient and surgical factors were associated with health-related quality of life (HRQoL) at one year post-surgery.

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An algorithm to determine the constitutional alignment of the lower limb once arthritic deformity has occurred would be of value when undertaking kinematically aligned total knee arthroplasty (TKA). The purpose of this study was to determine if the arithmetic hip-knee-ankle angle (aHKA) algorithm could estimate the constitutional alignment of the lower limb following development of significant arthritis.

Aims. This systematic review aims to identify 3D predictors derived from biplanar reconstruction, and to describe current methods for improving curve prediction in patients with mild adolescent idiopathic scoliosis. Methods. A comprehensive search was conducted by three independent investigators on MEDLINE, PubMed, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library. Search terms included “adolescent idiopathic scoliosis”,“3D”, and “progression”. The inclusion and exclusion criteria were carefully defined to include clinical studies. Risk of bias was assessed with the Quality in Prognostic Studies tool (QUIPS) and Appraisal tool for Cross-Sectional Studies (AXIS), and level of evidence for each predictor was rated with the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluations (GRADE) approach. In all, 915 publications were identified, with 377 articles subjected to full-text screening; overall, 31 articles were included. Results. Torsion index (TI) and apical vertebral rotation (AVR) were identified as accurate predictors of curve progression in early visits. Initial TI > 3.7° and AVR > 5.8° were predictive of curve progression. Thoracic hypokyphosis was inconsistently observed in progressive curves with weak evidence. While sagittal wedging was observed in mild curves, there is insufficient evidence for its correlation with curve progression. In curves with initial Cobb angle < 25°, Cobb angle was a poor predictor for future curve progression. Prediction accuracy was improved by incorporating serial reconstructions in stepwise layers. However, a lack of post-hoc analysis was identified in studies involving geometrical models. Conclusion. For patients with mild curves, TI and AVR were identified as predictors of curve progression, with TI > 3.7° and AVR > 5.8° found to be important thresholds. Cobb angle acts as a poor predictor in mild curves, and more investigations are required to assess thoracic kyphosis and wedging as predictors. Cumulative reconstruction of radiographs improves prediction accuracy. Comprehensive analysis between progressive and non-progressive curves is recommended to extract meaningful thresholds for clinical prognostication. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(3):243–251

Aims. This study was designed to develop a model for predicting bone mineral density (BMD) loss of the femur after total hip arthroplasty (THA) using artificial intelligence (AI), and to identify factors that influence the prediction. Additionally, we virtually examined the efficacy of administration of bisphosphonate for cases with severe BMD loss based on the predictive model. Methods. The study included 538 joints that underwent primary THA. The patients were divided into groups using unsupervised time series clustering for five-year BMD loss of Gruen zone 7 postoperatively, and a machine-learning model to predict the BMD loss was developed. Additionally, the predictor for BMD loss was extracted using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). The patient-specific efficacy of bisphosphonate, which is the most important categorical predictor for BMD loss, was examined by calculating the change in predictive probability when hypothetically switching between the inclusion and exclusion of bisphosphonate. Results. Time series clustering allowed us to divide the patients into two groups, and the predictive factors were identified including patient- and operation-related factors. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) for the BMD loss prediction averaged 0.734. Virtual administration of bisphosphonate showed on average 14% efficacy in preventing BMD loss of zone 7. Additionally, stem types and preoperative triglyceride (TG), creatinine (Cr), estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and creatine kinase (CK) showed significant association with the estimated patient-specific efficacy of bisphosphonate. Conclusion. Periprosthetic BMD loss after THA is predictable based on patient- and operation-related factors, and optimal prescription of bisphosphonate based on the prediction may prevent BMD loss. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2024;13(4):184–192

Aims. No predictive model has been published to forecast operating time for total knee arthroplasty (TKA). The aims of this study were to design and validate a predictive model to estimate operating time for robotic-assisted TKA based on demographic data, and evaluate the added predictive power of CT scan-based predictors and their impact on the accuracy of the predictive model. Methods. A retrospective study was conducted on 1,061 TKAs performed from January 2016 to December 2019 with an image-based robotic-assisted system. Demographic data included age, sex, height, and weight. The femoral and tibial mechanical axis and the osteophyte volume were calculated from CT scans. These inputs were used to develop a predictive model aimed to predict operating time based on demographic data only, and demographic and 3D patient anatomy data. Results. The key factors for predicting operating time were the surgeon and patient weight, followed by 12 anatomical parameters derived from CT scans. The predictive model based only on demographic data showed that 90% of predictions were within 15 minutes of actual operating time, with 73% within ten minutes. The predictive model including demographic data and CT scans showed that 94% of predictions were within 15 minutes of actual operating time and 88% within ten minutes. Conclusion. The primary factors for predicting robotic-assisted TKA operating time were surgeon, patient weight, and osteophyte volume. This study demonstrates that incorporating 3D patient-specific data can improve operating time predictions models, which may lead to improved operating room planning and efficiency. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(5):383–389

Aims. Several previously identified patient-, injury-, and treatment-related factors are associated with the development of nonunion in distal femur fractures. However, the predictive value of these factors is not well defined. We aimed to assess the predictive ability of previously identified risk factors in the development of nonunion leading to secondary surgery in distal femur fractures. Methods. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of adult patients with traumatic distal femur fracture treated with lateral locking plate between 2009 and 2018. The patients who underwent secondary surgery due to fracture healing problem or plate failure were considered having nonunion. Background knowledge of risk factors of distal femur fracture nonunion based on previous literature was used to form an initial set of variables. A logistic regression model was used with previously identified patient- and injury-related variables (age, sex, BMI, diabetes, smoking, periprosthetic fracture, open fracture, trauma energy, fracture zone length, fracture comminution, medial side comminution) in the first analysis and with treatment-related variables (different surgeon-controlled factors, e.g. plate length, screw placement, and proximal fixation) in the second analysis to predict the nonunion leading to secondary surgery in distal femur fractures. Results. We were able to include 299 fractures in 291 patients. Altogether, 31/299 fractures (10%) developed nonunion. In the first analysis, pseudo-R. 2. was 0.27 and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.81. BMI was the most important variable in the prediction. In the second analysis, pseudo-R. 2. was 0.06 and AUC was 0.67. Plate length was the most important variable in the prediction. Conclusion. The model including patient- and injury-related factors had moderate fit and predictive ability in the prediction of distal femur fracture nonunion leading to secondary surgery. BMI was the most important variable in prediction of nonunion. Surgeon-controlled factors had a minor role in prediction of nonunion. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(8):584–593

Aims. Early detection of developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH) is associated with improved outcomes of conservative treatment. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate a novel screening programme that included both the primary risk factors of breech presentation and family history, and the secondary risk factors of oligohydramnios and foot deformities. Methods. A five-year prospective registry study investigating every live birth in the study’s catchment area (n = 27,731), all of whom underwent screening for risk factors and examination at the newborn and six- to eight-week neonatal examination and review. DDH was diagnosed using ultrasonography and the Graf classification system, defined as grade IIb or above or rapidly regressing IIa disease (≥4. o. at four weeks follow-up). Multivariate odds ratios were calculated to establish significant association, and risk differences were calculated to provide quantifiable risk increase with DDH, positive predictive value was used as a measure of predictive efficacy. The cost-effectiveness of using these risk factors to predict DDH was evaluated using NHS tariffs (January 2021). Results. The prevalence of DDH that required treatment within our population was 5/1,000 live births. The rate of missed presentation of DDH was 0.43/1000 live births. Breech position, family history, oligohydramnios, and foot deformities demonstrated significant association with DDH (p < 0.0001). The presence of breech presentation increased the risk of DDH by 1.69% (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.93% to 2.45%), family history by 3.57% (95% CI 2.06% to 5.09%), foot deformities by 8.95% (95% CI 4.81% to 13.1%), and oligohydramnios nby 11.6% (95 % CI 3.0% to 19.0%). Primary risk factors family history and breech presentation demonstrated an estimated cost-per-case detection of £6,276 and £11,409, respectively. Oligohydramnios and foot deformities demonstrated a cost-per-case detected less than the cost of primary risk factors of £2,260 and £2,670, respectively. Conclusion. The inclusion of secondary risk factors within a national screening programme was clinically successful as they were more cost and resource-efficient predictors of DDH than primary risk factors, suggesting they should be considered in the national guidance. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(4):234–240

Aims. The aim of this study is to determine the predictors of overall survival (OS) and predictive factors of poor prognosis of conventional high-grade osteosarcoma of the limbs in a single-centre in South Africa. Methods. We performed a retrospective cross-sectional analysis to identify the prognostic factors that predict the OS of patients with histologically confirmed high-grade conventional osteosarcoma of the limbs over ten years. We employed the Cox proportional regression model and the Kaplan-Meier method for statistical analysis. Results. This study comprised 77 patients at a three-year minimum follow-up. The predictors of poor OS were: the median age of ≤ 19 years (hazard ratio (HR) 0.96; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.92 to 0.99; p = 0.021); median duration of symptoms ≥ five months (HR 0.91; 95% CI 0.83 to 0.99; p < 0.037); metastasis at diagnosis (i.e. Enneking stage III) (HR 3.33; 95% CI 1.81 to 6.00; p < 0.001); increased alkaline phosphatase (HR 3.28; 95% CI 1.33 to 8.11; p < 0.010); palliative treatment (HR 7.27; 95% CI 2.69 to 19.70); p < 0.001); and amputation (HR 3.71; 95% CI 1.12 to 12.25; p < 0.032). In contrast, definitive surgery (HR 0.11; 95% CI 0.03 to 0.38; p < 0.001) and curative treatment (HR 0.18; 95% CI 0.10 to 0.33; p < 0.001) were a protective factor. The Kaplan-Meier median survival time was 24 months, with OS of 57.1% at the three years. The projected five-year event-free survival was 10.3% and OS of 29.8% (HR 0.76; 95% CI 0.52 to 1.12; p = 0.128). Conclusion. In this series of high-grade conventional osteosarcoma of the appendicular skeleton from South Africa, 58.4% (n = 45) had detectable metastases at presentation; hence, an impoverished OS of five years was 29.8%. Large-scale future research is needed to validate our results. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(3):210–217

Aims. A substantial fraction of patients undergoing knee arthroplasty (KA) or hip arthroplasty (HA) do not achieve an improvement as high as the minimal clinically important difference (MCID), i.e. do not achieve a meaningful improvement. Using three patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs), our aim was: 1) to assess machine learning (ML), the simple pre-surgery PROM score, and logistic-regression (LR)-derived performance in their prediction of whether patients undergoing HA or KA achieve an improvement as high or higher than a calculated MCID; and 2) to test whether ML is able to outperform LR or pre-surgery PROM scores in predictive performance. Methods. MCIDs were derived using the change difference method in a sample of 1,843 HA and 1,546 KA patients. An artificial neural network, a gradient boosting machine, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression, ridge regression, elastic net, random forest, LR, and pre-surgery PROM scores were applied to predict MCID for the following PROMs: EuroQol five-dimension, five-level questionnaire (EQ-5D-5L), EQ visual analogue scale (EQ-VAS), Hip disability and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score-Physical Function Short-form (HOOS-PS), and Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score-Physical Function Short-form (KOOS-PS). Results. Predictive performance of the best models per outcome ranged from 0.71 for HOOS-PS to 0.84 for EQ-VAS (HA sample). ML statistically significantly outperformed LR and pre-surgery PROM scores in two out of six cases. Conclusion. MCIDs can be predicted with reasonable performance. ML was able to outperform traditional methods, although only in a minority of cases. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2023;12(9):512–521

Aims. Radiological residual acetabular dysplasia (RAD) has been reported in up to 30% of children who had successful brace treatment of infant developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH). Predicting those who will resolve and those who may need corrective surgery is important to optimize follow-up protocols. In this study we have aimed to identify the prevalence and predictors of RAD at two years and five years post-bracing. Methods. This was a single-centre, prospective longitudinal cohort study of infants with DDH managed using a published, standardized Pavlik harness protocol between January 2012 and December 2016. RAD was measured at two years’ mean follow-up using acetabular index-lateral edge (AI-L) and acetabular index-sourcil (AI-S), and at five years using AI-L, AI-S, centre-edge angle (CEA), and acetabular depth ratio (ADR). Each hip was classified based on published normative values for normal, borderline (1 to 2 standard deviations (SDs)), or dysplastic (> 2 SDs) based on sex, age, and laterality. Results. Of 202 infants who completed the protocol, 181 (90%) had two and five years’ follow-up radiographs. At two years, in 304 initially pathological hips, the prevalence of RAD (dysplastic) was 10% and RAD (borderline) was 30%. At five years, RAD (dysplastic) decreased to 1% to 3% and RAD (borderline) decreased to < 1% to 2%. On logistic regression, no variables were predictive of RAD at two years. Only AI-L at two years was predictive of RAD at five years (p < 0.001). If both hips were normal at two years’ follow-up (n = 96), all remained normal at five years. In those with bilateral borderline hips at two years (n = 21), only two were borderline at five years, none were dysplastic. In those with either borderline-dysplastic or bilateral dysplasia at two years (n = 26), three (12%) were dysplastic at five years. Conclusion. The majority of patients with RAD at two years post-brace treatment, spontaneously resolved by five years. Therefore, children with normal radiographs at two years post-brace treatment can be discharged. Targeted follow-up for those with abnormal AI-L at two years will identify the few who may benefit from surgical correction at five years’ follow-up. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(7):744–750

Aims. The association of auraptene (AUR), a 7-geranyloxycoumarin, on osteoporosis and its potential pathway was predicted by network pharmacology and confirmed in experimental osteoporotic mice. Methods. The network of AUR was constructed and a potential pathway predicted by Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) pathway and Gene Ontology (GO) terms enrichment. Female ovariectomized (OVX) Institute of Cancer Research mice were intraperitoneally injected with 0.01, 0.1, and 1 mM AUR for four weeks. The bone mineral density (BMD) level was measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. The bone microstructure was determined by histomorphological changes in the femora. In addition, biochemical analysis of the serum and assessment of the messenger RNA (mRNA) levels of osteoclastic markers were performed. Results. In total, 65.93% of the genes of the AUR network matched with osteoporosis-related genes. Osteoclast differentiation was predicted to be a potential pathway of AUR in osteoporosis. Based on the network pharmacology, the BMD and bone mineral content levels were significantly (p < 0.05) increased in the whole body, femur, tibia, and lumbar spine by AUR. AUR normalized the bone microstructure and the serum alkaline phosphatase (ALP), bone-specific alkaline phosphatase (bALP), osteocalcin, and calcium in comparison with the OVX group. In addition, AUR treatment reduced TRAP-positive osteoclasts and receptor activator of nuclear factor kappa-B ligand (RANKL). +. nuclear factor of activated T cells 1 (NFATc1). +. expression in the femoral body. Moreover, the expressions of initiators for osteoclastic resorption and bone matrix degradation were significantly (p < 0.05) regulated by AUR in the lumbar spine of the osteoporotic mice. Conclusion. AUR ameliorated bone loss by downregulating the RANKL/NFATc1 pathway, resulting in improvement of osteoporosis. In conclusion, AUR might be an ameliorative cure that alleviates bone loss in osteoporosis via inhibition of osteoclastic activity. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2022;11(5):304–316

Aims. Disorders of bone integrity carry a high global disease burden, frequently requiring intervention, but there is a paucity of methods capable of noninvasive real-time assessment. Here we show that miniaturized handheld near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) scans, operated via a smartphone, can assess structural human bone properties in under three seconds. Methods. A hand-held NIR spectrometer was used to scan bone samples from 20 patients and predict: bone volume fraction (BV/TV); and trabecular (Tb) and cortical (Ct) thickness (Th), porosity (Po), and spacing (Sp). Results. NIRS scans on both the inner (trabecular) surface or outer (cortical) surface accurately identified variations in bone collagen, water, mineral, and fat content, which then accurately predicted bone volume fraction (BV/TV, inner R. 2. = 0.91, outer R. 2. = 0.83), thickness (Tb.Th, inner R. 2. = 0.9, outer R. 2. = 0.79), and cortical thickness (Ct.Th, inner and outer both R. 2. = 0.90). NIRS scans also had 100% classification accuracy in grading the quartile of bone thickness and quality. Conclusion. We believe this is a fundamental step forward in creating an instrument capable of intraoperative real-time use. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(4):250–261

Aims. The aim of this study was to develop and internally validate a prognostic nomogram to predict the probability of gaining a functional range of motion (ROM ≥ 120°) after open arthrolysis of the elbow in patients with post-traumatic stiffness of the elbow. Methods. We developed the Shanghai Prediction Model for Elbow Stiffness Surgical Outcome (SPESSO) based on a dataset of 551 patients who underwent open arthrolysis of the elbow in four institutions. Demographic and clinical characteristics were collected from medical records. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was used to optimize the selection of relevant features. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to build the SPESSO. Its prediction performance was evaluated using the concordance index (C-index) and a calibration graph. Internal validation was conducted using bootstrapping validation. Results. BMI, the duration of stiffness, the preoperative ROM, the preoperative intensity of pain, and grade of post-traumatic osteoarthritis of the elbow were identified as predictors of outcome and incorporated to construct the nomogram. SPESSO displayed good discrimination with a C-index of 0.73 (95% confidence interval 0.64 to 0.81). A high C-index value of 0.70 could still be reached in the interval validation. The calibration graph showed good agreement between the nomogram prediction and the outcome. Conclusion. The newly developed SPESSO is a valid and convenient model which can be used to predict the outcome of open arthrolysis of the elbow. It could assist clinicians in counselling patients regarding the choice and expectations of treatment. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(4):486–494

Aims. Iliopsoas impingement occurs in 4% to 30% of patients after undergoing total hip arthroplasty (THA). Despite a relatively high incidence, there are few attempts at modelling impingement between the iliopsoas and acetabular component, and no attempts at modelling this in a representative cohort of subjects. The purpose of this study was to develop a novel computational model for quantifying the impingement between the iliopsoas and acetabular component and validate its utility in a case-controlled investigation. Methods. This was a retrospective cohort study of patients who underwent THA surgery that included 23 symptomatic patients diagnosed with iliopsoas tendonitis, and 23 patients not diagnosed with iliopsoas tendonitis. All patients received postoperative CT imaging, postoperative standing radiography, and had minimum six months’ follow-up. 3D models of each patient’s prosthetic and bony anatomy were generated, landmarked, and simulated in a novel iliopsoas impingement detection model in supine and standing pelvic positions. Logistic regression models were implemented to determine if the probability of pain could be significantly predicted. Receiver operating characteristic curves were generated to determine the model’s sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve (AUC). Results. Highly significant differences between the symptomatic and asymptomatic cohorts were observed for iliopsoas impingement. Logistic regression models determined that the impingement values significantly predicted the probability of groin pain. The simulation had a sensitivity of 74%, specificity of 100%, and an AUC of 0.86. Conclusion. We developed a computational model that can quantify iliopsoas impingement and verified its accuracy in a case-controlled investigation. This tool has the potential to be used preoperatively, to guide decisions about optimal cup placement, and postoperatively, to assist in the diagnosis of iliopsoas tendonitis. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(1):3–12

Aims. To develop prediction models using machine-learning (ML) algorithms for 90-day and one-year mortality prediction in femoral neck fracture (FNF) patients aged 50 years or older based on the Hip fracture Evaluation with Alternatives of Total Hip arthroplasty versus Hemiarthroplasty (HEALTH) and Fixation using Alternative Implants for the Treatment of Hip fractures (FAITH) trials. Methods. This study included 2,388 patients from the HEALTH and FAITH trials, with 90-day and one-year mortality proportions of 3.0% (71/2,388) and 6.4% (153/2,388), respectively. The mean age was 75.9 years (SD 10.8) and 65.9% of patients (1,574/2,388) were female. The algorithms included patient and injury characteristics. Six algorithms were developed, internally validated and evaluated across discrimination (c-statistic; discriminative ability between those with risk of mortality and those without), calibration (observed outcome compared to the predicted probability), and the Brier score (composite of discrimination and calibration). Results. The developed algorithms distinguished between patients at high and low risk for 90-day and one-year mortality. The penalized logistic regression algorithm had the best performance metrics for both 90-day (c-statistic 0.80, calibration slope 0.95, calibration intercept -0.06, and Brier score 0.039) and one-year (c-statistic 0.76, calibration slope 0.86, calibration intercept -0.20, and Brier score 0.074) mortality prediction in the hold-out set. Conclusion. Using high-quality data, the ML-based prediction models accurately predicted 90-day and one-year mortality in patients aged 50 years or older with a FNF. The final models must be externally validated to assess generalizability to other populations, and prospectively evaluated in the process of shared decision-making. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(3):168–181

Aims. Frailty greatly increases the risk of adverse outcome of trauma in older people. Frailty detection tools appear to be unsuitable for use in traumatically injured older patients. We therefore aimed to develop a method for detecting frailty in older people sustaining trauma using routinely collected clinical data. Methods. We analyzed prospectively collected registry data from 2,108 patients aged ≥ 65 years who were admitted to a single major trauma centre over five years (1 October 2015 to 31 July 2020). We divided the sample equally into two, creating derivation and validation samples. In the derivation sample, we performed univariate analyses followed by multivariate regression, starting with 27 clinical variables in the registry to predict Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS; range 1 to 9) scores. Bland-Altman analyses were performed in the validation cohort to evaluate any biases between the Nottingham Trauma Frailty Index (NTFI) and the CFS. Results. In the derivation cohort, five of the 27 variables were strongly predictive of the CFS (regression coefficient B = 6.383 (95% confidence interval 5.03 to 7.74), p < 0.001): age, Abbreviated Mental Test score, admission haemoglobin concentration (g/l), pre-admission mobility (needs assistance or not), and mechanism of injury (falls from standing height). In the validation cohort, there was strong agreement between the NTFI and the CFS (mean difference 0.02) with no apparent systematic bias. Conclusion. We have developed a clinically applicable tool using easily and routinely measured physiological and functional parameters, which clinicians and researchers can use to guide patient care and to stratify the analysis of quality improvement and research projects. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(4):412–418

Aims. To investigate the optimal thresholds and diagnostic efficacy of commonly used serological and synovial fluid detection indexes for diagnosing periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) in patients who have rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Methods. The data from 348 patients who had RA or osteoarthritis (OA) and had previously undergone a total knee (TKA) and/or a total hip arthroplasty (THA) (including RA-PJI: 60 cases, RA-non-PJI: 80 cases; OA-PJI: 104 cases, OA-non-PJI: 104 cases) were retrospectively analyzed. A receiver operating characteristic curve was used to determine the optimal thresholds of the CRP, ESR, synovial fluid white blood cell count (WBC), and polymorphonuclear neutrophil percentage (PMN%) for diagnosing RA-PJI and OA-PJI. The diagnostic efficacy was evaluated by comparing the area under the curve (AUC) of each index and applying the results of the combined index diagnostic test. Results. For PJI prediction, the results of serological and synovial fluid indexes were different between the RA-PJI and OA-PJI groups. The optimal cutoff value of CRP for diagnosing RA-PJI was 12.5 mg/l, ESR was 39 mm/hour, synovial fluid WBC was 3,654/μl, and PMN% was 65.9%; and those of OA-PJI were 8.2 mg/l, 31 mm/hour, 2,673/μl, and 62.0%, respectively. In the RA-PJI group, the specificity (94.4%), positive predictive value (97.1%), and AUC (0.916) of synovial fluid WBC were higher than those of the other indexes. The optimal cutoff values of synovial fluid WBC and PMN% for diagnosing RA-PJI after THA were significantly higher than those of TKA. The specificity and positive predictive value of the combined index were 100%. Conclusion. Serum inflammatory and synovial fluid indexes can be used for diagnosing RA-PJI, for which synovial fluid WBC is the best detection index. Combining multiple detection indexes can provide a reference basis for the early and accurate diagnosis of RA-PJI. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2023;12(9):559–570

Aims. This study aimed to explore the diagnostic value of synovial fluid neutrophil extracellular traps (SF-NETs) in periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) diagnosis, and compare it with that of microbial culture, serum ESR and CRP, synovial white blood cell (WBC) count, and polymorphonuclear neutrophil percentage (PMN%). Methods. In a single health centre, patients with suspected PJI were enrolled from January 2013 to December 2021. The inclusion criteria were: 1) patients who were suspected to have PJI; 2) patients with complete medical records; and 3) patients from whom sufficient synovial fluid was obtained for microbial culture and NET test. Patients who received revision surgeries due to aseptic failure (AF) were selected as controls. Synovial fluid was collected for microbial culture and SF-WBC, SF-PNM%, and SF-NET detection. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) of synovial NET, WBC, PMN%, and area under the curve (AUC) were obtained; the diagnostic efficacies of these diagnostic indexes were calculated and compared. Results. The levels of SF-NETs in the PJI group were significantly higher than those of the AF group. The AUC of SF-NET was 0.971 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.903 to 0.996), the sensitivity was 93.48% (95% CI 82.10% to 98.63%), the specificity was 96.43% (95% CI 81.65% to 99.91%), the accuracy was 94.60% (95% CI 86.73% to 98.50%), the positive predictive value was 97.73%, and the negative predictive value was 90%. Further analysis showed that SF-NET could improve the diagnosis of culture-negative PJI, patients with PJI who received antibiotic treatment preoperatively, and fungal PJI. Conclusion. SF-NET is a novel and ideal synovial fluid biomarker for PJI diagnosis, which could improve PJI diagnosis greatly. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2023;12(2):113–120

Aims. To systematically evaluate whether bracing can effectively achieve curve regression in patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS), and to identify any predictors of curve regression after bracing. Methods. Two independent reviewers performed a comprehensive literature search in PubMed, Ovid, Web of Science, Scopus, and Cochrane Library to obtain all published information about the effectiveness of bracing in achieving curve regression in AIS patients. Search terms included “brace treatment” or “bracing,” “idiopathic scoliosis,” and “curve regression” or “curve reduction.” Inclusion criteria were studies recruiting patients with AIS undergoing brace treatment and one of the study outcomes must be curve regression or reduction, defined as > 5° reduction in coronal Cobb angle of a major curve upon bracing completion. Exclusion criteria were studies including non-AIS patients, studies not reporting p-value or confidence interval, animal studies, case reports, case series, and systematic reviews. The GRADE approach to assessing quality of evidence was used to evaluate each publication. Results. After abstract and full-text screening, 205 out of 216 articles were excluded. The 11 included studies all reported occurrence of curve regression among AIS patients who were braced. Regression rate ranged from 16.7% to 100%. We found evidence that bracing is effective in achieving curve regression among compliant AIS patients eligible for bracing, i.e. curves of 25° to 40°. A similar effect was also found in patients with major curve sizes ranging from 40° to 60° when combined with scoliosis-specific exercises. There was also evidence showing that a low apical vertebral body height ratio, in-brace correction, smaller pre-brace Cobb angle, and daily pattern of brace-wear compliance predict curve regression after bracing. Conclusion. Bracing provides a corrective effect on scoliotic curves of AIS patients to achieve curve regression, given there is high compliance rate and the incorporation of exercises. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(3):286–292

Aims. The aim of this study was to report the meaningful values of the EuroQol five-dimension three-level questionnaire (EQ-5D-3L) and EuroQol visual analogue scale (EQ-VAS) in patients undergoing primary knee arthroplasty (KA). Methods. This is a retrospective study of patients undergoing primary KA for osteoarthritis in a university teaching hospital (Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh) (1 January 2013 to 31 December 2019). Pre- and postoperative (one-year) data were prospectively collected for 3,181 patients (median age 69.9 years (interquartile range (IQR) 64.2 to 76.1); females, n = 1,745 (54.9%); median BMI 30.1 kg/m. 2. (IQR 26.6 to 34.2)). The reliability of the EQ-5D-3L was measured using Cronbach’s alpha. Responsiveness was determined by calculating the anchor-based minimal clinically important difference (MCID), the minimal important change (MIC) (cohort and individual), the patient-acceptable symptom state (PASS) predictive of satisfaction, and the minimal detectable change at 90% confidence intervals (MDC-90). Results. The EQ-5D-3L demonstrated good internal consistency with an overall Cronbach alpha of 0.75 (preoperative) and 0.88 (postoperative), respectively. The MCID for the Index score was 0.085 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.042 to 0.127) and EQ-VAS was 6.41 (95% CI 3.497 to 9.323). The MIC. COHORT. was 0.289 for the EQ-5D and 5.27 for the EQ-VAS. However, the MIC. INDIVIDUAL. for both the EQ-5D-3L Index (0.105) and EQ-VAS (-1) demonstrated poor-to-acceptable reliability. The MDC-90 was 0.023 for the EQ-5D-3L Index and 1.0 for the EQ-VAS. The PASS for the postoperative EQ-5D-3L Index and EQ-VAS scores predictive of patient satisfaction were 0.708 and 77.0, respectively. Conclusion. The meaningful values of the EQ-5D-3L Index and EQ-VAS scores can be used to measure clinically relevant changes in health-related quality of life in patients undergoing primary KA. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2022;11(9):619–628

Aims. The primary aim of this study was to determine the ten-year outcome following surgical treatment for femoroacetabular impingement (FAI). We assessed whether the evolution of practice from open to arthroscopic techniques influenced outcomes and tested whether any patient, radiological, or surgical factors were associated with outcome. Methods. Prospectively collected data of a consecutive single-surgeon cohort, operated for FAI between January 2005 and January 2015, were retrospectively studied. The cohort comprised 393 hips (365 patients; 71% male (n = 278)), with a mean age of 34.5 years (SD 10.0). Over the study period, techniques evolved from open surgical dislocation (n = 94) to a combined arthroscopy-Hueter technique (HA + Hueter; n = 61) to a pure arthroscopic technique (HA; n = 238). Outcome measures of interest included modes of failures, complications, reoperation, and patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs). Demographic, radiological, and surgical factors were tested for possible association with outcome. Results. At a mean follow-up of 7.5 years (SD 2.5), there were 43 failures in 38 hips (9.7%), with 35 hips (8.9%) having one failure mode, one hip (0.25%) having two failure modes, and two hips (0.5%) having three failure modes. The five- and ten-year hip joint preservation rates were 94.1% (SD 1.2%; 95% confidence interval (CI) 91.8 to 96.4) and 90.4% (SD 1.7%; 95% CI 87.1 to 93.7), respectively. Inferior survivorship was detected in the surgical dislocation group. Age at surgery, Tönnis grade, cartilage damage, and absence of rim-trimming were associated with improved preservation rates. Only Tönnis grade was an independent predictor of hip preservation. All PROMs improved postoperatively. Factors associated with improvement in PROMs included higher lateral centre-edge and α angles, and lower retroversion index and BMI. Conclusion. FAI surgery provides lasting improvement in function and a joint preservation rate of 90.4% at ten years. The evolution of practice was not associated with inferior outcome. Since degree of arthritis is the primary predictor of outcome, improved awareness and screening may lead to prompt intervention and better outcomes. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(10):804–814

Aims. A novel enhanced cement fixation (EF) tibial implant with deeper cement pockets and a more roughened bonding surface was released to market for an existing total knee arthroplasty (TKA) system.This randomized controlled trial assessed fixation of the both the EF (ATTUNE S+) and standard (Std; ATTUNE S) using radiostereometric analysis. Methods. Overall, 50 subjects were randomized (21 EF-TKA and 23 Std-TKA in the final analysis), and had follow-up visits at six weeks, and six, 12, and 24 months to assess migration of the tibial component. Low viscosity bone cement with tobramycin was used in a standardized fashion for all subjects. Patient-reported outcome measure data was captured at preoperative and all postoperative visits. Results. The patient cohort mean age was 66 years (SD seven years), 59% were female, and the mean BMI was 32 kg/m. 2. (SD 6 kg/m. 2. ). Mean two-year subsidence of the EF-TKA was 0.056 mm (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.025 to 0.086) versus 0.006 mm (95% CI -0.029 to 0.040) for the Std-TKA, and the two-year maximum total point motion (MTPM) was 0.285 mm (95% upper confidence limit (UCL) ≤ 0.363) versus 0.346 mm (95% UCL ≤ 0.432), respectively, for a mean difference of -0.061 mm (95% CI -0.196 to 0.074). Inducible displacement also did not differ between groups. The MTPMs between 12 and 24 months for each group was below the published threshold of 0.2 mm for predicting early aseptic loosening (p < 0.001 and p = 0.001, respectively). Conclusion. Both the enhanced fixation and the standard tibial implant design showed fixation with a predicted low risk of long-term aseptic loosening. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(1):20–27

Aims. The modified Radiological Union Scale for Tibia (mRUST) fractures score was developed in order to assess progress to union and define a numerical assessment of fracture healing of metadiaphyseal fractures. This score has been shown to be valuable in predicting radiological union; however, there is no information on the sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of this index for various cut-off scores. The aim of this study is to evaluate sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and cut-off points of the mRUST score for the diagnosis of metadiaphyseal fractures healing. Methods. A cohort of 146 distal femur fractures were retrospectively identified at our institution. After excluding AO/OTA type B fractures, nonunions, follow-up less than 12 weeks, and patients aged less than 16 years, 104 sets of radiographs were included for analysis. Anteroposterior and lateral femur radiographs at six weeks, 12 weeks, 24 weeks, and final follow-up were separately scored by three surgeons using the mRUST score. The sensitivity and specificity of mean mRUST score were calculated using clinical and further radiological findings as a gold standard for ultimate fracture healing. A receiver operating characteristic curve was also performed to determine the cut-off points at each time point. Results. The mean mRUST score of ten at 24 weeks revealed a 91.9% sensitivity, 100% specificity, and 92.6% accuracy of predicting ultimate fracture healing. A cut-off point of 13 points revealed 41.9% sensitivity, 100% specificity, and 46.9% accuracy at the same time point. Conclusion. The mRUST score of ten points at 24 weeks can be used as a viable screening method with the highest sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy for healing of metadiaphyseal femur fractures. However, the cut-off point of 13 increases the specificity to 100%, but decreases sensitivity. Furthermore, the mRUST score should not be used at six weeks, as results show an inability to accurately predict eventual fracture healing at this time point. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(10):796–805

Aims. It is unclear whether acute plate fixation facilitates earlier return of normal shoulder function following a displaced mid-shaft clavicular fracture compared with nonoperative management when union occurs. The primary aim of this study was to establish whether acute plate fixation was associated with a greater return of normal shoulder function when compared with nonoperative management in patients who unite their fractures. The secondary aim was to investigate whether there were identifiable predictors associated with return of normal shoulder function in patients who achieve union with nonoperative management. Methods. Patient data from a randomized controlled trial were used to compare acute plate fixation with nonoperative management of united fractures. Return of shoulder function was based on the age- and sex-matched Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand (DASH) scores for the cohort. Independent predictors of an early recovery of normal shoulder function were investigated using a separate prospective series of consecutive nonoperative displaced mid-shaft clavicular fractures recruited over a two-year period (aged ≥ 16 years). Patient demographics and functional recovery were assessed over the six months post-injury using a standardized protocol. Results. Data from the randomized controlled trial consisted of 86 patients who underwent operative fixation compared with 76 patients that united with nonoperative treatment. The recovery of normal shoulder function, as defined by a DASH score within the predicted 95% confidence interval for each respective patient, was similar between each group at six weeks (operative 26.7% vs nonoperative 25.0%, p = 0.800), three months (52.3% vs 44.2%, p = 0.768), and six months post-injury (86.0% vs 90.8%, p = 0.349). The mean DASH score and return to work were also comparable at each timepoint. In the prospective cohort, 86.5% (n = 173/200) achieved union by six months post-injury (follow-up rate 88.5%, n = 200/226). Regression analysis found that no specific patient, injury, or fracture predictor was associated with an early return of function at six or 12 weeks. Conclusion. Return of normal shoulder function was comparable between acute plate fixation and nonoperative management when union was achieved. One in two patients will have recovery of normal shoulder function at three months, increasing to nine out of ten patients at six months following injury when union occurs, irrespective of initial treatment. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(7):522–529

The use of artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly growing across many domains, of which the medical field is no exception. AI is an umbrella term defining the practical application of algorithms to generate useful output, without the need of human cognition. Owing to the expanding volume of patient information collected, known as ‘big data’, AI is showing promise as a useful tool in healthcare research and across all aspects of patient care pathways. Practical applications in orthopaedic surgery include: diagnostics, such as fracture recognition and tumour detection; predictive models of clinical and patient-reported outcome measures, such as calculating mortality rates and length of hospital stay; and real-time rehabilitation monitoring and surgical training. However, clinicians should remain cognizant of AI’s limitations, as the development of robust reporting and validation frameworks is of paramount importance to prevent avoidable errors and biases. The aim of this review article is to provide a comprehensive understanding of AI and its subfields, as well as to delineate its existing clinical applications in trauma and orthopaedic surgery. Furthermore, this narrative review expands upon the limitations of AI and future direction. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2023;12(7):447–454

Aims. To identify variables independently associated with same-day discharge (SDD) of patients following revision total knee arthroplasty (rTKA) and to develop machine learning algorithms to predict suitable candidates for outpatient rTKA. Methods. Data were obtained from the American College of Surgeons National Quality Improvement Programme (ACS-NSQIP) database from the years 2018 to 2020. Patients with elective, unilateral rTKA procedures and a total hospital length of stay between zero and four days were included. Demographic, preoperative, and intraoperative variables were analyzed. A multivariable logistic regression (MLR) model and various machine learning techniques were compared using area under the curve (AUC), calibration, and decision curve analysis. Important and significant variables were identified from the models. Results. Of the 5,600 patients included in this study, 342 (6.1%) underwent SDD. The random forest (RF) model performed the best overall, with an internally validated AUC of 0.810. The ten crucial factors favoring SDD in the RF model include operating time, anaesthesia type, age, BMI, American Society of Anesthesiologists grade, race, history of diabetes, rTKA type, sex, and smoking status. Eight of these variables were also found to be significant in the MLR model. Conclusion. The RF model displayed excellent accuracy and identified clinically important variables for determining candidates for SDD following rTKA. Machine learning techniques such as RF will allow clinicians to accurately risk-stratify their patients preoperatively, in order to optimize resources and improve patient outcomes. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(6):399–407

Aims. The aim of this study was to establish a reliable method for producing 3D reconstruction of sonographic callus. Methods. A cohort of ten closed tibial shaft fractures managed with intramedullary nailing underwent ultrasound scanning at two, six, and 12 weeks post-surgery. Ultrasound capture was performed using infrared tracking technology to map each image to a 3D lattice. Using echo intensity, semi-automated mapping was performed to produce an anatomical 3D representation of the fracture site. Two reviewers independently performed 3D reconstructions and kappa coefficient was used to determine agreement. A further validation study was undertaken with ten reviewers to estimate the clinical application of this imaging technique using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC). Results. Nine of the ten patients achieved union at six months. At six weeks, seven patients had bridging callus of ≥ one cortex on the 3D reconstruction and when present all achieved union. Compared to six-week radiographs, no bridging callus was present in any patient. Of the three patients lacking sonographic bridging callus, one went onto a nonunion (77.8% sensitive and 100% specific to predict union). At 12 weeks, nine patients had bridging callus at ≥ one cortex on 3D reconstruction (100%-sensitive and 100%-specific to predict union). Presence of sonographic bridging callus on 3D reconstruction demonstrated excellent reviewer agreement on ICC at 0.87 (95% confidence interval 0.74 to 0.96). Conclusion. 3D fracture reconstruction can be created using multiple ultrasound images in order to evaluate the presence of bridging callus. This imaging modality has the potential to enhance the usability and accuracy of identification of early fracture healing. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2021;10(12):759–766

Aims. The primary aim of this study was to identify independent predictors associated with nonunion and delayed union of tibial diaphyseal fractures treated with intramedullary nailing. The secondary aim was to assess the Radiological Union Scale for Tibial fractures (RUST) score as an early predictor of tibial fracture nonunion. Methods. A consecutive series of 647 patients who underwent intramedullary nailing for tibial diaphyseal fractures were identified from a trauma database. Demographic data, comorbidities, smoking status, alcohol consumption, use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), and steroid use were documented. Details regarding mechanism of injury, fracture classification, complications, and further surgery were recorded. Nonunion was defined as the requirement for revision surgery to achieve union. Delayed union was defined as a RUST score < 10 at six months postoperatively. Results. There were 41 nonunions (6.3%), of which 13 were infected (31.7%), and 77 delayed unions (11.9%). There were 127 open fractures (19.6%). Adjusting for confounding variables, NSAID use (odds ratio (OR) 3.50; p = 0.042), superficial infection (OR 3.00; p = 0.026), open fractures (OR 5.44; p < 0.001), and high-energy mechanism (OR 2.51; p = 0.040) were independently associated with nonunion. Smoking (OR 1.76; p = 0.034), open fracture (OR 2.82; p = 0.001), and high-energy mechanism (OR 1.81; p = 0.030) were independent predictors associated with delayed union. The RUST score at six-week follow-up was highly predictive of nonunion (sensitivity and specificity of 75%). Conclusion. NSAID use, high-energy mechanisms, open fractures, and superficial infection were independently associated with nonunion in patients with tibial diaphyseal fractures treated with intramedullary nailing. The six-week RUST score may be useful in identifying patients at risk of nonunion. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(4):227–235

Aims. The diagnosis of periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) can be challenging as the symptoms are similar to other conditions, and the markers used for diagnosis have limited sensitivity and specificity. Recent research has suggested using blood cell ratios, such as platelet-to-volume ratio (PVR) and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), to improve diagnostic accuracy. The aim of the study was to further validate the effectiveness of PVR and PLR in diagnosing PJI. Methods. A retrospective review was conducted to assess the accuracy of different marker combinations for diagnosing chronic PJI. A total of 573 patients were included in the study, of which 124 knees and 122 hips had a diagnosis of chronic PJI. Complete blood count and synovial fluid analysis were collected. Recently published blood cell ratio cut-off points were applied to receiver operating characteristic curves for all markers and combinations. The area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were calculated. Results. The results of the analysis showed that the combination of ESR, CRP, synovial white blood cell count (Syn. WBC), and polymorphonuclear neutrophil percentage (PMN%) with PVR had the highest AUC of 0.99 for knees, with sensitivity of 97.73% and specificity of 100%. Similarly, for hips, this combination had an AUC of 0.98, sensitivity of 96.15%, and specificity of 100.00%. Conclusion. This study supports the use of PVR calculated from readily available complete blood counts, combined with established markers, to improve the accuracy in diagnosing chronic PJI in both total hip and knee arthroplasties. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(11):881–888