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Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 5, Issue 11 | Pages 1003 - 1012
8 Nov 2024
Gabr A Fontalis A Robinson J Hage W O'Leary S Spalding T Haddad FS

Aims

The aim of this study was to compare patient-reported outcomes (PROMs) following isolated anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction (ACLR), with those following ACLR and concomitant meniscal resection or repair.

Methods

We reviewed prospectively collected data from the UK National Ligament Registry for patients who underwent primary ACLR between January 2013 and December 2022. Patients were categorized into five groups: isolated ACLR, ACLR with medial meniscus (MM) repair, ACLR with MM resection, ACLR with lateral meniscus (LM) repair, and ACLR with LM resection. Linear regression analysis, with isolated ACLR as the reference, was performed after adjusting for confounders.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 5, Issue 11 | Pages 962 - 970
4 Nov 2024
Suter C Mattila H Ibounig T Sumrein BO Launonen A Järvinen TLN Lähdeoja T Rämö L

Aims

Though most humeral shaft fractures heal nonoperatively, up to one-third may lead to nonunion with inferior outcomes. The Radiographic Union Score for HUmeral Fractures (RUSHU) was created to identify high-risk patients for nonunion. Our study evaluated the RUSHU’s prognostic performance at six and 12 weeks in discriminating nonunion within a significantly larger cohort than before.

Methods

Our study included 226 nonoperatively treated humeral shaft fractures. We evaluated the interobserver reliability and intraobserver reproducibility of RUSHU scoring using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs). Additionally, we determined the optimal cut-off thresholds for predicting nonunion using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) method.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 5, Issue 10 | Pages 929 - 936
22 Oct 2024
Gutierrez-Naranjo JM Salazar LM Kanawade VA Abdel Fatah EE Mahfouz M Brady NW Dutta AK

Aims

This study aims to describe a new method that may be used as a supplement to evaluate humeral rotational alignment during intramedullary nail (IMN) insertion using the profile of the perpendicular peak of the greater tuberosity and its relation to the transepicondylar axis. We called this angle the greater tuberosity version angle (GTVA).

Methods

This study analyzed 506 cadaveric humeri of adult patients. All humeri were CT scanned using 0.625 × 0.625 × 0.625 mm cubic voxels. The images acquired were used to generate 3D surface models of the humerus. Next, 3D landmarks were automatically calculated on each 3D bone using custom-written C++ software. The anatomical landmarks analyzed were the transepicondylar axis, the humerus anatomical axis, and the peak of the perpendicular axis of the greater tuberosity. Lastly, the angle between the transepicondylar axis and the greater tuberosity axis was calculated and defined as the GTVA.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 106-B, Issue 7 | Pages 744 - 750
1 Jul 2024
Saeed A Bradley CS Verma Y Kelley SP

Aims

Radiological residual acetabular dysplasia (RAD) has been reported in up to 30% of children who had successful brace treatment of infant developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH). Predicting those who will resolve and those who may need corrective surgery is important to optimize follow-up protocols. In this study we have aimed to identify the prevalence and predictors of RAD at two years and five years post-bracing.

Methods

This was a single-centre, prospective longitudinal cohort study of infants with DDH managed using a published, standardized Pavlik harness protocol between January 2012 and December 2016. RAD was measured at two years’ mean follow-up using acetabular index-lateral edge (AI-L) and acetabular index-sourcil (AI-S), and at five years using AI-L, AI-S, centre-edge angle (CEA), and acetabular depth ratio (ADR). Each hip was classified based on published normative values for normal, borderline (1 to 2 standard deviations (SDs)), or dysplastic (> 2 SDs) based on sex, age, and laterality.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 5, Issue 5 | Pages 411 - 418
20 May 2024
Schneider P Bajammal S Leighton R Witges K Rondeau K Duffy P

Aims

Isolated fractures of the ulnar diaphysis are uncommon, occurring at a rate of 0.02 to 0.04 per 1,000 cases. Despite their infrequency, these fractures commonly give rise to complications, such as nonunion, limited forearm pronation and supination, restricted elbow range of motion, radioulnar synostosis, and prolonged pain. Treatment options for this injury remain a topic of debate, with limited research available and no consensus on the optimal approach. Therefore, this trial aims to compare clinical, radiological, and functional outcomes of two treatment methods: open reduction and internal fixation (ORIF) versus nonoperative treatment in patients with isolated ulnar diaphyseal fractures.

Methods

This will be a multicentre, open-label, parallel randomized clinical trial (under National Clinical Trial number NCT01123447), accompanied by a parallel prospective cohort group for patients who meet the inclusion criteria, but decline randomization. Eligible patients will be randomized to one of the two treatment groups: 1) nonoperative treatment with closed reduction and below-elbow casting; or 2) surgical treatment with ORIF utilizing a limited contact dynamic compression plate and screw construct. The primary outcome measured will be the Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand questionnaire score at 12 months post-injury. Additionally, functional outcomes will be assessed using the 36-Item Short Form Health Survey and pain visual analogue scale, allowing for a comparison of outcomes between groups. Secondary outcome measures will encompass clinical outcomes such as range of motion and grip strength, radiological parameters including time to union, as well as economic outcomes assessed from enrolment to 12 months post-injury.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 5, Issue 4 | Pages 343 - 349
22 Apr 2024
Franssen M Achten J Appelbe D Costa ML Dutton S Mason J Gould J Gray A Rangan A Sheehan W Singh H Gwilym SE

Aims. Fractures of the humeral shaft represent 3% to 5% of all fractures. The most common treatment for isolated humeral diaphysis fractures in the UK is non-operative using functional bracing, which carries a low risk of complications, but is associated with a longer healing time and a greater risk of nonunion than surgery. There is an increasing trend to surgical treatment, which may lead to quicker functional recovery and lower rates of fracture nonunion than functional bracing. However, surgery carries inherent risk, including infection, bleeding, and nerve damage. The aim of this trial is to evaluate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of functional bracing compared to surgical fixation for the treatment of humeral shaft fractures. Methods. The HUmeral SHaft (HUSH) fracture study is a multicentre, prospective randomized superiority trial of surgical versus non-surgical interventions for humeral shaft fractures in adult patients. Participants will be randomized to receive either functional bracing or surgery. With 334 participants, the trial will have 90% power to detect a clinically important difference for the Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand questionnaire score, assuming 20% loss to follow-up. Secondary outcomes will include function, pain, quality of life, complications, cost-effectiveness, time off work, and ability to drive. Discussion. The results of this trial will provide evidence regarding clinical and cost-effectiveness between surgical and non-surgical treatment of humeral shaft fractures. Ethical approval has been obtained from East of England – Cambridge Central Research Ethics Committee. Publication is anticipated to occur in 2024. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(4):343–349


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 5, Issue 4 | Pages 260 - 268
1 Apr 2024
Broekhuis D Meurs WMH Kaptein BL Karunaratne S Carey Smith RL Sommerville S Boyle R Nelissen RGHH

Aims

Custom triflange acetabular components (CTACs) play an important role in reconstructive orthopaedic surgery, particularly in revision total hip arthroplasty (rTHA) and pelvic tumour resection procedures. Accurate CTAC positioning is essential to successful surgical outcomes. While prior studies have explored CTAC positioning in rTHA, research focusing on tumour cases and implant flange positioning precision remains limited. Additionally, the impact of intraoperative navigation on positioning accuracy warrants further investigation. This study assesses CTAC positioning accuracy in tumour resection and rTHA cases, focusing on the differences between preoperative planning and postoperative implant positions.

Methods

A multicentre observational cohort study in Australia between February 2017 and March 2021 included consecutive patients undergoing acetabular reconstruction with CTACs in rTHA (Paprosky 3A/3B defects) or tumour resection (including Enneking P2 peri-acetabular area). Of 103 eligible patients (104 hips), 34 patients (35 hips) were analyzed.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 5, Issue 3 | Pages 243 - 251
25 Mar 2024
Wan HS Wong DLL To CS Meng N Zhang T Cheung JPY

Aims

This systematic review aims to identify 3D predictors derived from biplanar reconstruction, and to describe current methods for improving curve prediction in patients with mild adolescent idiopathic scoliosis.

Methods

A comprehensive search was conducted by three independent investigators on MEDLINE, PubMed, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library. Search terms included “adolescent idiopathic scoliosis”,“3D”, and “progression”. The inclusion and exclusion criteria were carefully defined to include clinical studies. Risk of bias was assessed with the Quality in Prognostic Studies tool (QUIPS) and Appraisal tool for Cross-Sectional Studies (AXIS), and level of evidence for each predictor was rated with the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluations (GRADE) approach. In all, 915 publications were identified, with 377 articles subjected to full-text screening; overall, 31 articles were included.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 106-B, Issue 3 | Pages 286 - 292
1 Mar 2024
Tang S Cheung JPY Cheung PWH

Aims. To systematically evaluate whether bracing can effectively achieve curve regression in patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS), and to identify any predictors of curve regression after bracing. Methods. Two independent reviewers performed a comprehensive literature search in PubMed, Ovid, Web of Science, Scopus, and Cochrane Library to obtain all published information about the effectiveness of bracing in achieving curve regression in AIS patients. Search terms included “brace treatment” or “bracing,” “idiopathic scoliosis,” and “curve regression” or “curve reduction.” Inclusion criteria were studies recruiting patients with AIS undergoing brace treatment and one of the study outcomes must be curve regression or reduction, defined as > 5° reduction in coronal Cobb angle of a major curve upon bracing completion. Exclusion criteria were studies including non-AIS patients, studies not reporting p-value or confidence interval, animal studies, case reports, case series, and systematic reviews. The GRADE approach to assessing quality of evidence was used to evaluate each publication. Results. After abstract and full-text screening, 205 out of 216 articles were excluded. The 11 included studies all reported occurrence of curve regression among AIS patients who were braced. Regression rate ranged from 16.7% to 100%. We found evidence that bracing is effective in achieving curve regression among compliant AIS patients eligible for bracing, i.e. curves of 25° to 40°. A similar effect was also found in patients with major curve sizes ranging from 40° to 60° when combined with scoliosis-specific exercises. There was also evidence showing that a low apical vertebral body height ratio, in-brace correction, smaller pre-brace Cobb angle, and daily pattern of brace-wear compliance predict curve regression after bracing. Conclusion. Bracing provides a corrective effect on scoliotic curves of AIS patients to achieve curve regression, given there is high compliance rate and the incorporation of exercises. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2024;106-B(3):286–292


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 4, Issue 11 | Pages 873 - 880
17 Nov 2023
Swaby L Perry DC Walker K Hind D Mills A Jayasuriya R Totton N Desoysa L Chatters R Young B Sherratt F Latimer N Keetharuth A Kenison L Walters S Gardner A Ahuja S Campbell L Greenwood S Cole A

Aims. Scoliosis is a lateral curvature of the spine with associated rotation, often causing distress due to appearance. For some curves, there is good evidence to support the use of a spinal brace, worn for 20 to 24 hours a day to minimize the curve, making it as straight as possible during growth, preventing progression. Compliance can be poor due to appearance and comfort. A night-time brace, worn for eight to 12 hours, can achieve higher levels of curve correction while patients are supine, and could be preferable for patients, but evidence of efficacy is limited. This is the protocol for a randomized controlled trial of ‘full-time bracing’ versus ‘night-time bracing’ in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS). Methods. UK paediatric spine clinics will recruit 780 participants aged ten to 15 years-old with AIS, Risser stage 0, 1, or 2, and curve size (Cobb angle) 20° to 40° with apex at or below T7. Patients are randomly allocated 1:1, to either full-time or night-time bracing. A qualitative sub-study will explore communication and experiences of families in terms of bracing and research. Patient and Public Involvement & Engagement informed study design and will assist with aspects of trial delivery and dissemination. Discussion. The primary outcome is ‘treatment failure’ (Cobb angle progression to 50° or more before skeletal maturity); skeletal maturity is at Risser stage 4 in females and 5 in males, or ‘treatment success’ (Cobb angle less than 50° at skeletal maturity). The comparison is on a non-inferiority basis (non-inferiority margin 11%). Participants are followed up every six months while in brace, and at one and two years after skeletal maturity. Secondary outcomes include the Scoliosis Research Society 22 questionnaire and measures of quality of life, psychological effects of bracing, adherence, anxiety and depression, sleep, satisfaction, and educational attainment. All data will be collected through the British Spine Registry. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2023;4(11):873–880


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 4, Issue 11 | Pages 865 - 872
15 Nov 2023
Hussain SA Russell A Cavanagh SE Bridgens A Gelfer Y

Aims

The Ponseti method is the gold standard treatment for congenital talipes equinovarus (CTEV), with the British Consensus Statement providing a benchmark for standard of care. Meeting these standards and providing expert care while maintaining geographical accessibility can pose a service delivery challenge. A novel ‘Hub and Spoke’ Shared Care model was initiated to deliver Ponseti treatment for CTEV, while addressing standard of care and resource allocation. The aim of this study was to assess feasibility and outcomes of the corrective phase of Ponseti service delivery using this model.

Methods

Patients with idiopathic CTEV were seen in their local hospitals (‘Spokes’) for initial diagnosis and casting, followed by referral to the tertiary hospital (‘Hub’) for tenotomy. Non-idiopathic CTEV was managed solely by the Hub. Primary and secondary outcomes were achieving primary correction, and complication rates resulting in early transfer to the Hub, respectively. Consecutive data were prospectively collected and compared between patients allocated to Hub or Spokes. Mann-Whitney U test, Wilcoxon signed-rank test, or chi-squared tests were used for analysis (alpha-priori = 0.05, two-tailed significance).


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 4, Issue 9 | Pages 689 - 695
7 Sep 2023
Lim KBL Lee NKL Yeo BS Lim VMM Ng SWL Mishra N

Aims

To determine whether side-bending films in scoliosis are assessed for adequacy in clinical practice; and to introduce a novel method for doing so.

Methods

Six surgeons and eight radiographers were invited to participate in four online surveys. The generic survey comprised erect and left and right bending radiographs of eight individuals with scoliosis, with an average age of 14.6 years. Respondents were asked to indicate whether each bending film was optimal (adequate) or suboptimal. In the first survey, they were also asked if they currently assessed the adequacy of bending films. A similar second survey was sent out two weeks later, using the same eight cases but in a different order. In the third survey, a guide for assessing bending film adequacy was attached along with the radiographs to introduce the novel T1-45B method, in which the upper endplate of T1 must tilt ≥ 45° from baseline for the study to be considered optimal. A fourth and final survey was subsequently conducted for confirmation.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 4, Issue 8 | Pages 635 - 642
23 Aug 2023
Poacher AT Hathaway I Crook DL Froud JLJ Scourfield L James C Horner M Carpenter EC

Aims

Developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH) can be managed effectively with non-surgical interventions when diagnosed early. However, the likelihood of surgical intervention increases with a late presentation. Therefore, an effective screening programme is essential to prevent late diagnosis and reduce surgical morbidity in the population.

Methods

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of the epidemiological literature from the last 25 years in the UK. Articles were selected from databases searches using MEDLINE, EMBASE, OVID, and Cochrane; 13 papers met the inclusion criteria.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 105-B, Issue 8 | Pages 935 - 942
1 Aug 2023
Bradley CS Verma Y Maddock CL Wedge JH Gargan MF Kelley SP

Aims. Brace treatment is the cornerstone of managing developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH), yet there is a lack of evidence-based treatment protocols, which results in wide variations in practice. To resolve this, we have developed a comprehensive nonoperative treatment protocol conforming to published consensus principles, with well-defined a priori criteria for inclusion and successful treatment. Methods. This was a single-centre, prospective, longitudinal cohort study of a consecutive series of infants with ultrasound-confirmed DDH who underwent a comprehensive nonoperative brace management protocol in a unified multidisciplinary clinic between January 2012 and December 2016 with five-year follow-up radiographs. The radiological outcomes were acetabular index-lateral edge (AI-L), acetabular index-sourcil (AI-S), centre-edge angle (CEA), acetabular depth ratio (ADR), International Hip Dysplasia Institute (IHDI) grade, and evidence of avascular necrosis (AVN). At five years, each hip was classified as normal (< 1 SD), borderline dysplastic (1 to 2 SDs), or dysplastic (> 2 SDs) based on validated radiological norm-referenced values. Results. Of 993 infants assessed clinically and sonographically, 21% (212 infants, 354 abnormal hips) had DDH and were included. Of these, 95% (202 infants, 335 hips) successfully completed bracing, and 5% (ten infants, 19 hips) failed bracing due to irreducible hip(s). The success rate of bracing for unilateral dislocations was 88% (45/51 infants) and for bilateral dislocations 83% (20/24 infants). The femoral nerve palsy rate was 1% (2/212 infants). At five-year follow-up (mean 63 months (SD 5.9; 49 to 83)) the prevalence of residual dysplasia after successful brace treatment was 1.6% (5/312 hips). All hips were IHDI grade I and none had AVN. Four children (4/186; 2%) subsequently underwent surgery for residual dysplasia. Conclusion. Our comprehensive protocol for nonoperative treatment of infant DDH has shown high rates of success and extremely low rates of residual dysplasia at a mean age of five years. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2023;105-B(8):935–942


Aims

To systematically review the efficacy of split tendon transfer surgery on gait-related outcomes for children and adolescents with cerebral palsy (CP) and spastic equinovarus foot deformity.

Methods

Five databases (CENTRAL, CINAHL, PubMed, Embase, Web of Science) were systematically screened for studies investigating split tibialis anterior or split tibialis posterior tendon transfer for spastic equinovarus foot deformity, with gait-related outcomes (published pre-September 2022). Study quality and evidence were assessed using the Methodological Index for Non-Randomized Studies, the Risk of Bias In Non-Randomized Studies of Interventions, and the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 3, Issue 7 | Pages 566 - 572
18 Jul 2022
Oliver WM Molyneux SG White TO Clement ND Duckworth AD

Aims

The primary aim was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of routine operative fixation for all patients with humeral shaft fractures. The secondary aim was to estimate the health economic implications of using a Radiographic Union Score for HUmeral fractures (RUSHU) of < 8 to facilitate selective fixation for patients at risk of nonunion.

Methods

From 2008 to 2017, 215 patients (mean age 57 yrs (17 to 18), 61% female (n = 130/215)) with a nonoperatively managed humeral diaphyseal fracture were retrospectively identified. Union was achieved in 77% (n = 165/215) after initial nonoperative management, with 23% (n = 50/215) uniting after surgery for nonunion. The EuroQol five-dimension three-level health index (EQ-5D-3L) was obtained via postal survey. Multiple regression was used to determine the independent influence of patient, injury, and management factors upon the EQ-5D-3L. An incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of < £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained was considered cost-effective.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 3, Issue 7 | Pages 515 - 528
1 Jul 2022
van der Heijden L Bindt S Scorianz M Ng C Gibbons MCLH van de Sande MAJ Campanacci DA

Aims

Giant cell tumour of bone (GCTB) treatment changed since the introduction of denosumab from purely surgical towards a multidisciplinary approach, with recent concerns of higher recurrence rates after denosumab. We evaluated oncological, surgical, and functional outcomes for distal radius GCTB, with a critically appraised systematic literature review.

Methods

We included 76 patients with distal radius GCTB in three sarcoma centres (1990 to 2019). Median follow-up was 8.8 years (2 to 23). Seven patients underwent curettage, 38 curettage with adjuvants, and 31 resection; 20 had denosumab.


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 104-B, Issue 6 | Pages 758 - 764
1 Jun 2022
Gelfer Y Davis N Blanco J Buckingham R Trees A Mavrotas J Tennant S Theologis T

Aims

The aim of this study was to gain an agreement on the management of idiopathic congenital talipes equinovarus (CTEV) up to walking age in order to provide a benchmark for practitioners and guide consistent, high-quality care for children with CTEV.

Methods

The consensus process followed an established Delphi approach with a predetermined degree of agreement. The process included the following steps: establishing a steering group; steering group meetings, generating statements, and checking them against the literature; a two-round Delphi survey; and final consensus meeting. The steering group members and Delphi survey participants were all British Society of Children’s Orthopaedic Surgery (BSCOS) members. Descriptive statistics were used for analysis of the Delphi survey results. The Appraisal of Guidelines for Research & Evaluation checklist was followed for reporting of the results.


Bone & Joint Open
Vol. 3, Issue 5 | Pages 404 - 414
9 May 2022
McGuire MF Vakulenko-Lagun B Millis MB Almakias R Cole EP Kim HKW

Aims. Perthes’ disease is an uncommon hip disorder with limited data on the long-term outcomes in adulthood. We partnered with community-based foundations and utilized web-based survey methodology to develop the Adult Perthes Survey, which includes demographics, childhood and adult Perthes’ disease history, the University of California Los Angeles (UCLA) Activity Scale item, Short Form-36, the Hip disability and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score, and a body pain diagram. Here we investigate the following questions: 1) what is the feasibility of obtaining > 1,000 survey responses from adults who had Perthes’ disease using a web-based platform?; and 2) what are the baseline characteristics and demographic composition of our sample?. Methods. The survey link was available publicly for 15 months and advertised among support groups. Of 1,505 participants who attempted the Adult Perthes survey, 1,182 completed it with a median timeframe of 11 minutes (IQR 8.633 to 14.72). Participants who dropped out were similar to those who completed the survey on several fixed variables. Participants represented 45 countries including the USA (n = 570; 48%), UK (n = 295; 25%), Australia (n = 133; 11%), and Canada (n = 46; 4%). Of the 1,182 respondents, 58% were female and the mean age was 39 years (SD 12.6). Results. Ages at onset of Perthes’ disease were < six years (n = 512; 43%), six to seven years (n = 321; 27%), eight to 11 years (n = 261; 22%), and > 11 years (n = 76; 6%), similar to the known age distribution of Perthes’ disease. During childhood, 40% (n = 476) of respondents had at least one surgery. Bracing, weightbearing restriction, and absence of any treatment varied significantly between USA and non-USA respondents (p < 0.001, p = 0.002, and p < 0.001, respectively). As adults, 22% (n = 261) had at least one total hip arthroplasty, and 30% (n = 347) had any type of surgery; both more commonly reported among women (p = 0.002). Conclusion. While there are limitations due to self-sampling, our study shows the feasibility of obtaining a large set of patient-reported data from adults who had childhood Perthes’ from multiple countries. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(5):404–414


The Bone & Joint Journal
Vol. 104-B, Issue 4 | Pages 495 - 503
1 Apr 2022
Wong LPK Cheung PWH Cheung JPY

Aims. The aim of this study was to assess the ability of morphological spinal parameters to predict the outcome of bracing in patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) and to establish a novel supine correction index (SCI) for guiding bracing treatment. Methods. Patients with AIS to be treated by bracing were prospectively recruited between December 2016 and 2018, and were followed until brace removal. In all, 207 patients with a mean age at recruitment of 12.8 years (SD 1.2) were enrolled. Cobb angles, supine flexibility, and the rate of in-brace correction were measured and used to predict curve progression at the end of follow-up. The SCI was defined as the ratio between correction rate and flexibility. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was carried out to assess the optimal thresholds for flexibility, correction rate, and SCI in predicting a higher risk of progression, defined by a change in Cobb angle of ≥ 5° or the need for surgery. Results. The baseline Cobb angles were similar (p = 0.374) in patients whose curves progressed (32.7° (SD 10.7)) and in those whose curves remained stable (31.4° (SD 6.1)). High supine flexibility (odds ratio (OR) 0.947 (95% CI 0.910 to 0.984); p = 0.006) and correction rate (OR 0.926 (95% CI 0.890 to 0.964); p < 0.001) predicted a lower incidence of progression after adjusting for Cobb angle, Risser sign, curve type, menarche status, distal radius and ulna grading, and brace compliance. ROC curve analysis identified a cut-off of 18.1% for flexibility (sensitivity 0.682, specificity 0.704) and a cut-off of 28.8% for correction rate (sensitivity 0.773, specificity 0.691) in predicting a lower risk of curve progression. A SCI of greater than 1.21 predicted a lower risk of progression (OR 0.4 (95% CI 0.251 to 0.955); sensitivity 0.583, specificity 0.591; p = 0.036). Conclusion. A higher supine flexibility (18.1%) and correction rate (28.8%), and a SCI of greater than 1.21 predicted a lower risk of progression. These novel parameters can be used as a guide to optimize the outcome of bracing. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(4):495–503