Modic change (MC) describes vertebral endplate and bone marrow lesions visible on MRI. MC has been associated with disc degeneration (DD). Independent association of MC with low back pain (LBP) is unclear. The objectives of this study were to assess the relationship between MC and severe, disabling LBP; prevalence and features of DD and incident MC during 10-year follow-up. Unselected TwinsUK volunteers were recruited to MRI and nurse interview in 1996–2000 (n=823): a subset attended for follow-up a decade later (n=429). T2-weighted lumbar MR scans were coded blindly for MC, DD (loss of disc height and signal intensity, disc bulge and anterior osteophytes) and Schmorl's nodes (SN). Mean baseline age = 54.0 (32–70) years with 96% female. Prevalence of MC was 32.2% (baseline) and 48.7% (follow-up). Univariable analyses showed subjects having MC were older (p<0.001) and more overweight (p=0.026). At both timepoints subjects reporting severe LBP episodes demonstrated more MC (both p<0.001) than those without LBP. In multivariable analyses, MC remained significantly associated with episodes of severe, disabling LBP (OR 1.58; 95% CI 1.04–2.41) even after adjustment for age, BMI, DD and SN. Loss of disc height and disc signal intensity were independently associated with prevalent MC at baseline, and disc height and disc bulge with incident MC during follow-up.Background and purpose of study:
Methods and results:
