The primary aim was to identify patient and injury factors independently associated with humeral diaphyseal fracture nonunion after non-operative management. The secondary aim was to determine the effect of management (operative/non-operative) on nonunion.

Over a ten-year period, 734 humeral diaphyseal fractures (732 consecutive patients) were retrospectively identified from a trauma database. Follow-up was available for 663 fractures (662 patients; median age 57yrs [16–96], 54% female [n=359/662]) which formed the study cohort. Patient and injury characteristics were recorded. There were 523 patients (79%) managed non-operatively and 139 (21%) managed operatively. Outcome (union/nonunion) was determined from medical records and radiographs.

Median follow-up was five months (1.2–74). Nonunion occurred in 22.7% of non-operatively managed injuries (n=119/524). Multivariate analysis demonstrated pre-injury NSAIDs (adjusted OR [AOR] 40.8, 95% CI 2.6–632.3; p=0.008), being underweight (BMI <18.5kg/m2; AOR 7.3, 95% CI 1.3 to 40.2; p=0.022), overweight (BMI 25–29.9kg/m2; AOR 2.5, 95% CI 1.1 to 5.9; p=0.034) and class II obesity (BMI 35–39.9kg/m2; AOR 4.5, 95% CI 1.4 to 15.5; p=0.014) were independently associated with an increased risk of nonunion. Operative fixation was independently associated with a lower risk of nonunion (2.9%, n=4/139) than non-operative management (AOR for non-operative/operative 11.0, 95% CI 2.8 to 43.6; p=0.001). Based upon these results, five patients would need to undergo operative fixation to avoid one nonunion.

Pre-injury NSAIDs and BMI were independently associated with nonunion following non-operative management of a humeral diaphyseal fracture. Operative fixation was the independent factor most strongly associated with a lower risk of nonunion.