The aim of this study was to develop and internally validate a prognostic nomogram to predict the probability of gaining a functional range of motion (ROM ≥ 120°) after open arthrolysis of the elbow in patients with post-traumatic stiffness of the elbow. We developed the Shanghai Prediction Model for Elbow Stiffness Surgical Outcome (SPESSO) based on a dataset of 551 patients who underwent open arthrolysis of the elbow in four institutions. Demographic and clinical characteristics were collected from medical records. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was used to optimize the selection of relevant features. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to build the SPESSO. Its prediction performance was evaluated using the concordance index (C-index) and a calibration graph. Internal validation was conducted using bootstrapping validation.Aims
Methods
Abstract. Introduction. Minimising postoperative complications and mortality in COVID-19 patients who were undergoing trauma and orthopaedic surgeries is an international priority. Aim was to develop a predictive nomogram for 30-day morbidity/mortality of COVID-19 infection in patients who underwent orthopaedic and trauma surgery during the coronavirus pandemic in the UK in 2020 compared to a similar period in 2019. Secondary objective was to compare between patients with positive PCR test and those with negative test. Methods. Retrospective multi-center study including 50 hospitals. Patients with suspicion of SARS-CoV-2 infection who had underwent orthopaedic or trauma surgery for any indication during the 2020 pandemic were enrolled in the study (2525 patients). We analysed cases performed on orthopaedic and trauma operative lists in 2019 for comparison (4417). Multivariable Logistic Regression analysis was performed to assess the possible predictors of a fatal outcome. A nomogram was developed with the possible predictors and total point were calculated. Results. Of the 2525 patients admitted for suspicion of COVID-19, 658 patients had negative preoperative test, 151 with positive test and 1716 with unknown preoperative COVID-19 status. Preoperative COVID-19 status, sex, ASA grade, urgency and indication of surgery, use of torniquet, grade of operating surgeon and some comorbidities were independent risk factors associated with 30-day complications/mortality. The 2020 nomogram model exhibited moderate prediction ability. In contrast, the prediction ability of total points of 2019 nomogram model was excellent. Conclusions.
